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The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

Maybe big Rafale sale (60) to UAE, BAE trying to keep Typhoon line alive:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/11/dubai-airshow-emirates-fighters-idUSL8N1362Y220151111
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense-news/2015/11/12/bae-curtailing-typhoon-production/75640236/

Lots more Rafale at DID:
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/frances-rafale-fighters-au-courant-in-time-05991/

Mark
Ottawa
 
MarkOttawa said:
Maybe big Rafale sale (60) to UAE, BAE trying to keep Typhoon line alive:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/11/dubai-airshow-emirates-fighters-idUSL8N1362Y220151111
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense-news/2015/11/12/bae-curtailing-typhoon-production/75640236/

Lots more Rafale at DID:
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/frances-rafale-fighters-au-courant-in-time-05991/

Mark
Ottawa

And there you have the problem with the Typhoon and the Rafale.

A BIG SALE is 60 aircraft.  And those are necessary to keep struggling lines open.  Similarly for the Boeing products.

Meanwhile LockMart is turning out the F35s at that rate annually even though it is still operating at a LOW RATE and has yet to come up to HIGH RATE even as the aircraft itself continues to develop its full potential.

Currently the F35 is about as good as the old Sea Harrier.  And work can be found for even Gen 3 aircraft like Frogfoots.

Face it.  The only people that are going to buy aircraft in the thousands are the Americans.  Even the Chinese can't afford that, the Russians certainly can't and the Arabs won't.

And the Americans are never going to buy Rafale, Gripen or Typhoon.  And they have made their decision on where their fighter dollar is going.

Boeing will get another project (maybe the UCAV vehicle or the LRS-B in association with others) and kept alive that way. 
 
Chris Pook said:
And there you have the problem with the Typhoon and the Rafale.

Speaking of the Typhoon, here's more about the continuing problems with Typhoon sales for BAE:

Defense News

BAE Curtailing Typhoon Production
By Andrew Chuter 8:53 a.m. EST November 12, 2015

LONDON — BAE Systems is halving Typhoon combat jet production in order to keep assembly lines working beyond 2018 when delivery of current orders come to an end, the company said in a trading update issued Nov 12.

On the upside, Europe's largest defense contractor also announced it is in discussion with the Saudi air force over a potential order for a further 22 Hawk jet trainers to add to the 72 it has delivered or has under contract.

The company declined to detail current or projected production numbers resulting from the slow-down, but said the financial impact would see Typhoon sales revenues reduce from about £1.3 billion (US$1.97 billion) this year to around £1.1 billion in 2016.

(...SNIPPED)
 
I wonder if we could purchase some Advanced Super Hornets and then lease some F-35's, say 12-16. Then the new PM could say we didn't purchase any and we would still have the newest tech.
 
n the meantime, Bogdan and his team are focused on more current deadlines. Lockheed is expected to deliver a proposal for LRIP 9 and 10 in January or February of 2015, Bogdan said, which will kick off the next round of negotiations.

Those negotiations are part of what Bogdan called a “significant” ramp in production rates. The current plan calls for the three US services to buy 34 of 57 total planes in LRIP 9, 55 of 96 total planes in LRIP 10 and 68 of 121 total planes in LRIP 11.

http://archive.defensenews.com/article/20141031/DEFREG02/310310028/F-35-Heading-Toward-Block-Buy

The US Department of Defense (DoD) and Lockheed Martin finalised the eighth F-35 Lightning II Low-Rate Initial Production (LRIP 8) contract on 21 November, the DoD's programme office announced.

The deal is for 43 F-35 airframes valued at USD4.7 billion. The batch includes 29 aircraft for the United States and 14 for 5 other countries.

http://www.janes.com/article/46129/pentagon-finalises-f-35-lrip-8-contract

As of November, 115 F-35s, including test aircraft, were delivered from Lockheed Martin's production facility in Fort Worth, Texas.

ibid

So: to summarize

Prior to LRIP 8 (To Date)  115 aircraft delivered (plus initiation of foreign assembly)
With LRIP 8  (2015)          43 aircraft to be delivered
With LRIP 9  (2016)          57 aircraft to be delivered
With LRIP 10 (2017)          96 aircraft to be delivered
With LRIP 11 (2018)        121 aircraft to be delivered
Total F35s  Flying (2019)  432 aircraft in the air

Next Canadian Election 2019
Retiremement Window for CF-188s 2020-2025

Gripen, Rafale, or Typhoon would give their eye-teeth for any one of those LOW RATE LRIP contracts and their total fleet strengths

444 Typhoon
247 Gripen
141 Rafale

for comparison

195 F22
500? F18 E-F

and for reference

1480 F18 A-D
4560+ F16
1198 F15
337 AV-8Bs


Only the Typhoon is in the same league as where the F35 will be when it hits Full Production rates on the way to a fleet of 2000 to 3000+ to replace all those Eagles, Falcons, Hornets and Harriers.

Super Hornet, Silent Eagle, even Fighting Falcon - may get some bridging orders to fill gaps - but the F35 is the designated Go To to replace up to 8000 existing aircraft.  And nobody, anywhere, is going to match those numbers,  not even if the EU miraculously healed itself and figured out how to agree on a single solution for anything.

Yep.  We can go out and build ourselves a toy fleet of hangar queens for shade tree mechanics, like the French Air Force - or we can order a few dozen Chevys off a General Motors production line.  And make money selling parts to the rest of the 2000 to 3000 (plus) vehicles that are likely to driven for the next 50 years (plus).





 
Chris Pook:

With LRIP 8  (2015)          43 aircraft to be delivered

LRIP 8 is actually for US FY 2014, started Oct. 1 2013:

WASHINGTON D.C. – Oct. 27, 2014 - The U.S. Department of Defense and Lockheed Martin have reached an agreement in principle for the production of 43 F-35 Lightning II aircraft.  Officials anticipate the Low-Rate Initial Production lot 8 (LRIP 8) contract to be finalized in the coming weeks.  The contract is for fiscal year 2014 with deliveries beginning in 2016 [emphasis added]...
http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/news/press-releases/2014/october/dod-and-lockheed-martin-announce-principle-agreement-on-purchase-of-f-35s_141027ae.html

Mark
Ottawa
 
MarkOttawa said:
Chris Pook:

LRIP 8 is actually for US FY 2014, started Oct. 1 2013:

Mark
Ottawa

I'll take the push Mark. By the time of the election 2019 rolls around I still figure that, in round numbers, there will be 400 to 500 F35s in the air.

And the  F35 line will just be switching into high gear, and the CF-18s will still have another 4 or 5 years life expectancy (especially if they are limited to NORAD response and their Flag exercise time and Air Shows are curtailed.
 
CP,

You should be the RCAF Comd!  You understand the matter AND are able to put it into coherent words!
 
SupersonicMax said:
CP,

You should be the RCAF Comd!  You understand the matter AND are able to put it into coherent words!

My personal favorite was the part about hangar queens and shade tree mechanics.
 
The Liberals’ defence platform says this (p. 3 PDF):

We will not purchase the F-35 stealth fighter-bomber. The primary mission of our fighter aircraft will remain the defence of North America. We will immediately launch an open and transparent competition to replace the CF-18 that will exclude requirements that do not reflect Canada’s interests, such as first-strike stealth capabilities.
https://www.liberal.ca/files/2015/09/A-new-plan-to-strengthen-the-economy-and-create-jobs-with-navy-investment.pdf

Now see this at the mandate letter for the Minister of Public Services and Procurement–she is to…

Work with the Minister of National Defence and the Minister of Innovation, Science and Economic Development to launch an open and transparent competition to replace the CF-18 fighter aircraft, focusing on options that match Canada’s defence needs.
http://www.pm.gc.ca/eng/minister-public-services-and-procurement-mandate-letter

The party stated that those needs do not include “first-strike stealth capabilities”; so the F-35 is in fact effectively, if not specifically, excluded? The wording is essentially identical in the MND’s mandate letter:
http://www.pm.gc.ca/eng/minister-national-defence-mandate-letter

Mark
Ottawa
 
A dumb decision is a dumb decision even when it is a decision.
 
I am not purporting to be any kind of expert here whatsoever but sometimes a little dose of reality and unbiased input helps. When working the Navy's CSC project a few years ago, a group of us (from all 3 environments and none of us were officers) got together right after the F35 hammer came down. We went through the SOR for the CF 18 replacement and determined that there is an aircraft that meets about 80% of the requirements within the SOR and we could probably build under license, around 5000 of them. That aircraft is.............the P51 Mustang....with drop tanks of course....
 
Well that solution would fit the rest of the forces back to the past trend.

88647_800.jpg
 
SupersonicMax said:
CP,

You should be the RCAF Comd!  You understand the matter AND are able to put it into coherent words!

Could he learn to speak with a Scottish accent?  I could write his speeches for him  ;D
 
And now for the Afghans via the USAF:
http://aviationweek.com/defense/first-super-tucano-accepted-us-air-force

Delivery next year:
http://www.janes.com/article/54750/super-tucano-deliveries-to-afghanistan-delayed-until-early-2016

Meanwhile Lebanon buying with Saudi money:
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/international/mideast-africa/2015/06/21/lebanon-to-buy-super-tucanos-with-saudi-funds-us-fms/28927563/

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/show-daily/dubai-air-show/2015/11/10/lebanon-a29-super-tucano-embraer-dubai/75500984/

images


images


Mark
Ottawa
 
I'm not a pilot, nor an AERE officer ...

So, exclusively for ground attack, what is the difference (advantage?) of this:

   
textron-airland-scorpion.jpg

    Textron Scorpion

Over this:

   
the-future-of-attack-helicopters.jpg

    Sikorsky X2 Raider    

And vice versa, of course.

This is a Canadian question, so we can have one or the pother (in addition to a couple of squadrons plus an ATU's worth of a NORAD interceptor), not both.
 
My guess is the Turcano offers significantly reduced operating costs, with less pilot training and less initial costs. It can still bomb and strafe targets and make life miserable for the enemy. It can be brought down with Gun AA or Manpads, but losing one is not breaking the bank. Pilots in these countries are considered expendable, although in reality it would be hard to replace one as they rarely would have an efficient training scheme. The Textron aircraft is getting closer to the Su-25 in capability.

 
E.R. Campbell said:
I'm not a pilot, nor an AERE officer ...

So, exclusively for ground attack, what is the difference (advantage?) of this:

   
textron-airland-scorpion.jpg

    Textron Scorpion

Over this:

   
the-future-of-attack-helicopters.jpg

    Sikorsky X2 Raider    

And vice versa, of course.

This is a Canadian question, so we can have one or the pother (in addition to a couple of squadrons plus an ATU's worth of a NORAD interceptor), not both.

Speed, distance you can travel and amount of payload you can carry.
 
Maybe they'll go for a cheap dual role aircraft like the Korean Aerospace / Lockheed Martin FA-50...has some Air-to-Air capability unlike the Scorpion and can be used for ground attack.  Is already in production and in service with a couple of countries and it's unarmed T-50 model is Lockheed Martin's entry into the USAF's T-X advanced trainer program to provide a supersonic aircraft for training F-35 pilots.

If we were to buy these from Lockheed Martin (and possibly boost their chances in the T-X competition by having an in-service base and existing production) would they possibly give Canada some consideration on continuing contractor participation in the F-35 program if we were to "defer" a decision on an F-35 purchase instead of cancelling outright?

http://www.koreaaero.com/english/product/fixedwing_t-50.asp
 
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