The Next Conservative Leader
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MAJONES said:
Considering the dauphin did run for leadership so much as he was acclaimed, and has presented much in the way of a platform (yet), I will put money down, he gets his butt handed to him. Harper and his government maybe long in the tooth, but they haven't had any HRDC boondogles, or Shawingate or Adscam. Yeah they have had problems, but they pale in comparison to those shenanigans. For all the sky is falling stuff flung at Harper, none of it has come to fruition.
Regardless of whether Steven Harper wins or loses the next election, after that election would be the logical time to step down, wouldn't it? If he gets defeated by young Trudeau, then he would certainly be expected to resign. And if he wins a fourth consecutive term, that would seem to be the perfect time for him to step aside and let the next leader run the shop for a while until another election in the 2019ish timeframe.
I can't see Steven Harper resigning soon, putting his party through a leadership race in 2014, only to then have an election in 2015. Too many things can go wrong in that scenario. I think if that was his plan, he would have announced his intention to resign by now.
I can't see Steven Harper resigning soon, putting his party through a leadership race in 2014, only to then have an election in 2015. Too many things can go wrong in that scenario. I think if that was his plan, he would have announced his intention to resign by now.
It would be far better to take JT and his Liberals on their current policies (or lack thereof) and record. Trying to evoke scandals of the past is just as likely to backfire badly as succeed. Whatever Justin's faults (and they are legion), he has a charisma that Ignatieff, Dion or even Martin did not. The backlash and mocking that came with the first "In over his head" spot should act as a warning. The Barrie Advance PMO leak debacle should have rung some major alarm bells as to trying to pin things on him that aren't relevant (i.e. trying to concoct a scandal about something that happened before he was even an MP). Doubling down would be stupid. Let him do their work for them. Unfortunately, that would require some subtlety in handling that hasn't been in evidence much lately.Hatchet Man said:
For example, it has gone largely unnoticed that Justin rushed to Edmonton to do whatever it takes to lend a hand yet still made it to the Pride Parade in Toronto before the job was finished.
If an adversary is running headlong towards a cliff, don't try and give him a push. If you misjudge it, you could prevent him from going over or end up going over yourself. instead Just step aside and watch.
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jpjohnsn said:
You misinterpreted me. I didn't say, Harper and the gang should talk about the scandals of Chretien/Martin, I was merely highlighting that the "scandals" in and around Harper are small potatoes compared to Chretien/Martin, and despite the constant soundtrack that Harper and his government will destroy Canada etc. none of the dire prophecies and edicts from various parties and partisans came true. While I don't think they misfired per se launching right into Trudeau, (since the same tactic of branding your opponent before he can brand himself, worked to great effect before). I think they are now going to let JT do the work for them (senate comments, these speaking fees). When it comes to the election he is going to get eviscerated, since there are now only 3 major parties, and the other 2 leaders sure as hell won't be inclined to let the liberals make a come back.
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Those who think the Torries are going to savage Mr Trudeau come election time are ignoring just how nasty the NDP will become as it tries to hold onto opposition status. The real battle is not going to be Con vs Lib, rather Lib vs NDP. The Torries have to let them chew on each other while avoiding shooting themselves in the foot.
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ModlrMike said:
I agree particularly in Quebec, where the Tories never have a realistic chance anyways. Unless the BQ makes a miraculous reappearance, it will be Mulcair ripping into JT.
Brad Sallows
Army.ca Legend
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>Liberal insider Warren Kinsella pours a little gasoline on the CPC leadership fire
More briar patch journalism.
More briar patch journalism.
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jpjohnsn said:
Yup, just burned up carbon credits in jet fuel to get a photo op. "I was in Alberta during those devastating times, where was Mr. Harper?"
Did he even go to the areas hard hit, fill a sandbag or roll up his shirt sleeves?
Posturing ponce.
The term 'social butterfly' comes to mind.
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recceguy said:
I didn't see any pictures of that, but then again I didn't see many pictures of a dirty, sweat soaked Laureen Harper, either, but there were some:
Mrs Harper, some PMO staff and some CPC MPs pitch in in Calgary's cleanup
Source: Windsor Star
In fairness there were more compelling images than the PM's wife helping her neighbours and, of course, the Nenshi/Redford/Smith PR machines were out in full force.
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E.R. Campbell said:
And now CTV's Bob Fife is reporting that Diane Ablonczy, Minister of State of Foreign Affairs (Americas and Consular Affairs) will also not run again in 2015. Once again, while I did not factor into to my leadership equation she has been far more asset than liability to the CPC and to Prime Minister Harper.
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In the National Post, John Ivison speculates that, despite her poor French, he calls it a "work in progress," Lisa Raitt should be considered as a contender.
Federal transport minister Lisa Raitt, speaks to members of the media in Lac-Megantic, Quebec,
July 17, 2013. Tyler Anderson/National Post
John Ivison also says that, "the front-runners are already well-established in that race — James Moore and Jason Kenney are said to have nascent organizations that could be fired up at moment’s notice. Former minister Jim Prentice keeps a watchful eye on Ottawa from his perch on Bay Street, while Peter MacKay may yet re-ignite an interest in leadership that appears to have cooled as he embraces marriage and fatherhood."
Federal transport minister Lisa Raitt, speaks to members of the media in Lac-Megantic, Quebec,
July 17, 2013. Tyler Anderson/National Post
John Ivison also says that, "the front-runners are already well-established in that race — James Moore and Jason Kenney are said to have nascent organizations that could be fired up at moment’s notice. Former minister Jim Prentice keeps a watchful eye on Ottawa from his perch on Bay Street, while Peter MacKay may yet re-ignite an interest in leadership that appears to have cooled as he embraces marriage and fatherhood."
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PPCLI Guy said:
Mr Alexander has to "earn his spurs" first by holding on to and, preferably, increasing the CPC's edge in the 905 belt. If he can manage that then his political stock will be HUGE.
Under redistribution BC will have 42 seats, AB will have 34 (combined they almost equal QC) but the 905 belt, alone, has 35+/- (depending on how you define the "belt") ~ it's like AB, all on its own.
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E.R. Campbell said:...
Let me redo the list:
Rona Ambrose John Baird Jason Kenney James Moore Peter MacKay Jim Prentice
Alberta, Age: 43 Ontario, Age: 43 Saskatchewan, Age: 44 BC, Age: 36 Nova Scotia, Age: 47 Alberta, Age: 56
Libertarian Moderate Social Conservative Libertarian Moderate Moderate
All lily white, no Francophones, one woman, all under 60, one under 40.
I remain convinced that Prentice is the best candidate ~ but I tend to overrate gravitas and underrate the value of social conservatism. I agree with others that Ambrose is the least likely to lead the party. I also think that, on balance, MacKay loses to Prentice and Ambrose loses to Moore, so my choices are:
First: Jim Prentice
Tied for Second: John Baird or Jason Kenney
Fourth: James Moore
Tied for Fifth: Rona Ambrose or Peter MacKay
I'm bumping this because I think that the Senate Scandal® has stained the Prime Minister's reputation for personal integrity.
It's easy enough for me to explain the fact (and it is a fact) that the centralizatin of too much power in the PMO began 45 years ago, under Pierre Trudeau, but the other fact is that Stephen Harper's PMO crossed an important ethical line. So, Justice Gomery concluded, did Jean Chrétien's ... but M. Chrétien and the Liberal Party paid a political price for that. I doubt Prime Minister Harper is immune to that.
I can, without straining my imagination too much, construct a scenario in which Prime Minister Harper decides, next year, 2014, that he cannot, under existing circumstances, lead the Conservatives to another victory, not even a minority, and decides that the "Hail Mary" play ~ a new, fresh, leader ~ is the CPC's best (only?) hope.
I might, however rejig, my prediction:
Tied for First after five ballots: Jason Kenney and Jim Prentice;
Third: John Baird;
Also Rans: Rona Ambrose, Peter MacKay and James Moore.
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He's a pretty good man, but do you think Jim Prentice'll get back into the saddle to 1) rewin a seat, and 2) go for the leadership, especially from a gig like this? I have zero insider knowledge about such things, so I'd love to hear from those who may hear things in his old riding/stomping grounds.
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Two points:
-as part of any reform of our political system to make it more accountable, transparent, and democratic, I believe that the PMO has got to be pushed back into its box. You are right to say that its insidious growth has not respected any particular party lines: people like power, etc, etc.; but IMHO it has become almost a mini-GoC on its own. I don't expect anything to happen right now, but maybe an election might bring changes; and
-although things are beginning to look worse every morning for the PM, I still cling to the idea that he is not a fundamentally dishonest nor corrupt individual. I don't love everything about him and his version of Toryism, but I have never seen him in the same light as say, TMWNSNBM*.
* The Mayor Whose Name Shall Not Be Mentioned
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milnews.ca said:
I wouldn't if I were him, but ... he retains immense levels of 'popularity' in some conservative circles. He's got more gravitas than all the rest combined. Being away from parliament over the past few years might be a HUGE political advantage and, I believe, he has an agenda, for Canada, which he can implement, best, from the PM's seat.
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pbi said:
But actually being honest will not help. The media is is full, rabid, pursuit, howling and screaming ... it's not about media bias, not at all, it is all about Gotcha! journalism, about which the late George Bain reminded us back in 1994. Every reporter in Ottawa wants to be the one who brought down a prime minister ... for some this prime minister would be the best prize of all.
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True, and good point/agreed, respectively.E.R. Campbell said:
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