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The Next Conservative Leader

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larry Strong

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Posted with the usual caveats....


http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20101104/jim-prentice-leaving-office-101104/

According to the talking heads he is "unhappy"
 
My own recent post in the Liberal Leadership thread got me to thinking about the next Conservative leader. The recent vote on a proposal to debate "when does life begin?" saw both Rona Ambrose and Jason Kenney voting to reopen the debate and, therefore, against the prime minister and the rest of cabinet. The speculation is that both are positioning themselves to capture the social conservatives when, inevitably, the leadership race opens (2017? 2018?).

Who else might be a leadership candidate?

My guesses:

220px-RonaAmbrose_EdmontonLRTOpening_25April2009.jpg
 
Hon-Jason-Kenney.jpg
 
50414_104817488512_7605915_n.jpg
 
JimPrenticeCrop.JPG

Rona Ambrose                                    Jason Kenney                                                                    Peter MacKay                                Jim Prentice
Alberta, DOB: 15 March 69                Saskatchewan, DOB: 30 May 68                                        Nova Scotia, 27 Sep 65                Alberta, DOB: 20 Jul 56                                             
Career Politician                                Career Politician                                                                Lawyer before entering politics    Lawyer, Politician and Business Executive



I think Prentice, who, at 56 is the oldest of the four, has the best résumé but he is, I also think the least bilingual. Ambrose describes herself as a libertarian, Kenney really is an established social conservative just as MacKay is a social liberal.


Edit: spelling   :-[
 
I wouldn't count out John Baird, either, another career politician.
 
Ambrose doesn't turn any cranks in leadership mode....the others are all viable, but low profile. McKay, I think, has been written off by most. Kenny and Baird are maybe's, but Prentiss has always had an aura of compentantcy the others don't have....He also walked away at the height of his time in, so he kinda retains that....
 
I know Mr. Prentice, having volunteered with his campaigns both when he was gunning for the leadership of the old PC Party, and then again for his election campaign as an MP candidate in 2004. He's really a great guy, and I was saddened to see him decide to leave politics. I certainly would welcome a return.

Can't speak to his French proficiency though.

Edit: Other than him, I'd probably prefer Kenney (despite and not because of his social conservative ways), Baird, and Ambrose.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
My own recent post in the Liberal Leadership thread got me to thinking about the next Conservative leader. The recent vote on a proposal to debate "when does life begin?" saw both Rona Ambrose and Jason Kenney voting to reopen the debate and, therefore, against the prime minister and the rest of cabinet. The speculation is that both are positioning themselves to capture the social conservatives when, inevitably, the leadership race opens (2017? 2018?).

Who else might be a leadership candidate?

My guesses:

220px-RonaAmbrose_EdmontonLRTOpening_25April2009.jpg
 
220px-John_Baird_-_Canadian_MP.jpg
 
Hon-Jason-Kenney.jpg
 
50414_104817488512_7605915_n.jpg
 
JimPrenticeCrop.JPG

Rona Ambrose                                    John Baird                                            Jason Kenney                                                                      Peter MacKay                                  Jim Prentice
Alberta, DOB: 15 March 69                    Ontario, DOB: 26 May 69                        Saskatchewan, DOB: 30 May 68                                              Nova Scotia, 27 Sep 65                    Alberta, DOB: 20 Jul 56                                             
Career Politician                                  Career Politician                                    Career Politician                                                                    Lawyer before entering politics          Lawyer, Politician and Business Executive



I think Prentice, who, at 56 is the oldest of the four, has the best résumé but he is, I also think the least bilingual. Ambrose describes herself as a libertarian, Kenney really is an established social conservative just as MacKay is a social liberal.


Edited to add John Baird. Baird is a social liberal, like MacKay.

My, personal preferences:

First choice: Jim Prentice
Second:      John Baird
Third:          any of Rona Ambrose, Jason Kenney or Peter MacKay


If it is two Quebec native sons (Mulcair and either Garneau or Trudeau) then I suspect that Prentice's less than perfect French will not do him too much harm. He is ten years older than his colleagues, two years younger than Mulcair, but he has much more gravitas. I don't think he has much baggage on the social issues.
 
I wonder if there would be any resistance to another leader from "Alberta"......
 
Jason Kenney is an outstanding politician in my opinion. I'd vote for him as CPC Leader.
 
Larry Strong said:
I wonder if there would be any resistance to another leader from "Alberta"......


I've often discussed the Old Canada/New Canada theory - it's not mine but I can't remember where I first read it - which says that power is shifting from Old Canada, East of the Ottawa River, to New Canada which is  BC <=> ON. Thus it will be natural for the Conservatives to have a New Canada leader, with ON and AB being the places in which they elect the most people.


Edit: 2 X typos
 
This, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the National Post, is an interesting analysis of (Conservative) political leadership. I'm not certain I believe it, not completely, anyway, and the parts that I do believe are applicable, I think, to all political movements throughout the Western world:

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/10/02/john-ivison-conservative-backbench-has-lost-its-fear-of-stephen-harper/
Conservative backbench has lost its fear of Stephen Harper

John Ivison

Oct 2, 2012

Is there a common thread running between Rob Anders’ wild-eyed musings about how Tom Mulcair hastened Jack Layton’s death and last week’s abortion vote, in which a majority of Conservative MPs voted for a motion their leader had urged them to oppose?

I’d argue yes – the trained seals on the backbench are biting back and we are likely to see more unsanctioned behaviour in future, as MPs relish their new-found freedom.

So what the Sam Hill is going on with the party that brought you Canada’s first Orwellian government?

Groupthink is still alive and doing what it’s told, not least earlier this month, when 11 MPs and a senator used exactly the same lines at the same time, albeit in different places, while highlighting the government’s War of 1812 initiative.

But the narrative of Stephen Harper as Big Brother, so beloved of certain commentators, is becoming increasingly anachronous.

Simply put, I think MPs on the government side of the House who have been around since 2004, 2006 or 2008 are thinking about their legacy and resolving that always voting at their party’s call, and never thinking for themselves at all, is not how they want to be remembered.

There are no whispers of regicide in the Conservative caucus. Mr. Harper will remain Prime Minister until he or the voters decide otherwise. He remains respected for leading the party into majority government but he is not loved and, crucially, he is no longer feared. From Mr. Anders’ unique analysis to the willingness of a majority of the Prime Minister’s caucus to defy his wishes, it seems Mr. Harper’s power to chill his backbench has waned.

There is a widespread feeling on the backbenches that they have been taken for granted. A number say they are fed up being told what to do by “kids in short pants,” young enough to receive their briefing notes in phonics.

There have been rumblings from a number of Conservative senators, upset at being treated as a rubber-stamp by the Prime Minister’s Office, that they will start to send poorly thought out legislation back to the House.

Now it sounds like a group of Conservative back-benchers are talking about flexing their own muscles by voting against government legislation, if they don’t approve of it. “We haven’t decided on any particular bill yet,” said one MP.

The abortion vote was not, perhaps, a real manifestation of the disquiet on the backbenches. In fact, it proved to be a safety valve that allowed MPs to blow off some steam. The real danger to the Prime Minister would have been to whip the vote, storing up trouble for the future.

We’re not even talking here of the regular grumbling endemic to back-benches everywhere. A number of Conservatives are upset about the new rules for MPs that will require parliamentarians to contribute 50% of their pension in the future. But this kind of blatant self-interest is not what appears to be motivating the outbreak of independent thinking on the back-bench.

Rather, there is a sense that the Prime Minister and the select band of courtiers around him have gone too far in concentrating power in the PMO.

A micro-management strategy, designed in the early days to control the role of the individual MP and Cabinet minister in the interests of presenting a co-ordinated message, is deemed to have had its day. Cabinet ministers, who have become used to receiving mandate letters that detail priorities, with no leeway for ministers to promote projects they may feel are deserving, are typical of the short leash on which all Conservative MPs have been kept.

A number of MPs I spoke to argue they should now be trusted to act more independently, even if they use that freedom to voice whatever offensive and unlikely conspiracy theory comes into their heads.

After seven years of the opposition and their cheerleaders frothing at Mr. Harper’s “totalitarian rule,” it’s possible that the democratic deficit may ultimately be addressed by a most unlikely source – the bobbleheads on the government’s own backbench.

National Post


Some points of departure:

1. Prime Minister Harper's "Orwellian" and centralized style of government is nothing new in Canada ~ Trudeau and his Clerk of the Privy Council, Michael Pitfield, were far, far more "Orwellian" and power was more, even, in my opinion, dangerously concentrated at the centre;

    (The Clerk should be non partisan and should act as a policy "check" on the PM's political instincts, Pitfield was inside the PMO, in fact the PCO and PMO were, nearly, indistinguishable.
    It was a dangerous time for our Westminster system, we got very close to a US style "spoils" system without the Constitutional framework to check and balance it.)


2. Backbenchers have, traditionally, been "nobodies" when they are off the Hill, and backbench revolts are regular features of all Westminster style governments, in Australia, Britain and here, in Canada; and

3. My, personal, sense is that Harper is less "feared" than he is simply "remote." I think that Stephen Harper is the least "liked" PM since Mackenzie King ~ even men that many despise were noted for being good at managing their own team; not so Stephen Harper: he appears indifferent to the personal wants and needs of his team.

But: it, caucus leadership, is an issue and will be after the 2015 election when the Conservative leadership/succession can be discussed openly.
 
I think the discontent may stem more from PM Stephen Harper's control of who can say what, when and where with scripted talking points and party lines.  Only a select few are allowed to openly express themselves without being.  This may be a hold over when this was necessary as a minority government.

The problem is that the Conservative party has several people who have made scary and frankly dumb comments and have been more or less muzzled for their, and the party's, own good.  Anders, Gallant, Polievre etc are just a few examples of this. 

The conservatives are trying to appeal to Canadians by moving towards (staking a claim is a better description) the social center, which likely does not appeal to the old reform party originals that want to talk about things like abortion, gay rights etc, but not the way Stephen Harper wants to. In the end I think it might likely be a smaller handful making more noise than its actual size and making it sound like there is more discontent than there really is.

However after the next election, it will be interesting to see how vocal, if not divisive these backbenchers might become.
 
Who knew  Ivison could write comedy :)

Have to add James Moore to the list.

http://www.parl.gc.ca/MembersOfParliament/ProfileMP.aspx?Key=170424&Language=E

I don't think Ambrose has a chance.

Kenney has worked very hard, has strong base and knows how to do politics.

Baird has a lot of the same strengths as Kenney plus he has the gay cred.

It will be an interesting race . . .  when it happens.

Will Harper go one more round?    Will the party transition power without spilling blood or will they go the way of the LPC?


Much entertainment to be had for sure.






 
Major edit because my Alzheimer's clicked in and I forgot John Baird!  :-[

Let me redo the list:

AmbroseRona_CPC.jpg
   
BairdJohn_CPC.jpg
   
KenneyJason_CPC.jpg
   
MooreJames_CPC.jpg
   
MacKayPeterGordon_CPC.jpg
   
JimPrentice.jpg

Rona Ambrose                  John Baird                        Jason Kenney                  James Moore                    Peter MacKay                  Jim Prentice
Alberta, Age: 43              Ontario, Age: 43              Saskatchewan, Age: 44  BC, Age: 36                      Nova Scotia, Age: 47      Alberta, Age: 56
Libertarian                        Moderate                        Social Conservative          Libertarian                        Moderate                        Moderate


All lily white, no Francophones, one woman, all under 60, one under 40.

I remain convinced that Prentice is the best candidate ~ but I tend to overrate gravitas and underate the value of social conservatism. I agree with others that Ambrose is the least likely to lead the party. I also think that, on balance, MacKay loses to Prentice and Ambrose loses to Moore, so my choices are:

First:                    Jim Prentice
Tied for Second:  John Baird or Jason Kenney
Fourth:                James Moore
Tied for Fifth:      Rona Ambrose or Peter MacKay
 
E.R. Campbell said:
Let me redo the list:

AmbroseRona_CPC.jpg
   
KenneyJason_CPC.jpg
   
MooreJames_CPC.jpg
   
MacKayPeterGordon_CPC.jpg
   
JimPrentice.jpg

Rona Ambrose                  Jason Kenney                  James Moore                    Peter MacKay                  Jim Prentice
Alberta, Age: 43              Saskatchewan, Age: 44  BC, Age: 36                      Nova Scotia, Age: 47      Alberta, Age: 56
Libertarian                      Social Conservative          Libertarian                        Moderate                        Moderate


All lily white, no Francophones, one woman, all under 60, one under 40.

I remain convinced that Prentice is the best candidate ~ but I tend to overrate gravitas and underate the value of social conservatism. I agree with others that Ambrose is the least likely to lead the party. I also think that, on balance, MacKay loses to Prentice and Ambrose loses to Moore, so my choices are:

First:                  Jim Prentice
Tied for Second:  Jason Kenney or James Moore
Tied for Fourth:  Rona Ambrose or Peter MacKay
Curious, why no more John Baird on this round?
 
I could support Prentice.  He also will have been able to say that he's been absent from federal politics during a few very contentious years and so can't really be tarred with anything. He also has serious credibility in the 'real world' in part due to his most recent work with CIBC.

Besides that, a fairly moderate Conservative candidate would also stand the best chance of pulling in voters from the Centre who won't vote NDP and won't want to vote for Justin Trudeau to run the country.
 
Career politician, career politician, career politician, lawyer, lawyer.  ....Sigh....
 
bridges said:
Career politician, career politician, career politician, lawyer, lawyer.  ....Sigh....


In this day and age there's not much else. Justin Trudeau took a little side trip into teaching, but not for long.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
Because I'm old and stupid!  :-[  :'(    ???
Not even close!  :nod:

Have to agree with the Prentice/gravitas assessment, but I don't know how good his chances have to be to drag him back into the fray from this gig with CIBC.
 
From the F-35 thread, reagrding questions in the House for Peter MacKay:

Haletown said:
kinda makes me wonder if PM Harper is allowing a potential rival to rotate on the spit a bit here to get some visible political scars he can point to if his leadership is challenged.

Mackay looks bad.

Ambrose looks solid and competent  . . .  future Party leader when Harper is ready to go for his walk in the snow?


MacKay has, I think, a pretty strong and loyal following in the CPC. He is admired for bringing the PCs into the new party with few problems.

Rona Ambrose is a strong candidate but she may face a stiff challenge from the big, seat rich Ontario caucus. Jim Prentice can claim Ontario roots and can also suggest that he has transplanted himself back there. But my list is still this:

First:                    Jim Prentice
Tied for Second:  John Baird or Jason Kenney
Fourth:                James Moore
Tied for Fifth:      Rona Ambrose or Peter MacKay

 
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