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Brihard said:I'm not schooled in COIN by any means; I've read some stuff and have mulled a bit, but I won't pretend to be anything but a rank amateur.
Intuitively though, your last para hints at something. If COIN is going to be in part predicated upon building a viable state, then part and parcel of that must seem to me to be a very simple, face value question- at the lowest level, the dude in the street - what are the most common interactions betwen the citizen and the state? This isn't an Afghan specific thing; it's the same question that pops into my head during a municipal or provincial election. Who are these dudes asking for my support, how do they differ from all the ther swinging dicks and what do they have to offer to my life in the real, practical sense?
I'm sure there are properly bureaucratic terms for this kind of analysis and that if I were PSYOPS or CIMIC I'd already 'get it'. You speak of the Taliban fulfilling the role of the police and judiciary. De facto, they are essentially the executive and the legislative in many areas.
Are we too focused on big picture, grand strategy, 'what-consultant-shall-we-hire-for-this' stuff to have maintianed focus on the simple reality of 'walking the walk', and 'deeds not words'?
I can't claim to be anywhere near an expert on the subject for the simple reason that it's morphing so fast it is almost impossible to keep up - and all while people scream "COIN is dead", no less. I do, however, have a bit of insight having been fairly well read in on the subject for quite a while (it was something that interested me even before I joined the army, actually, while I was in school), and I also work at the "Centre of Excellence" in Afghanistan which requires me to keep myself as up on current themes as best I can.
So, then, he's my assessment: you're right. There was too much focus on big picture stuff at the beginning especially. All this effort to build a national government with all the trappings of a modern republic in Kabul didn't actually change anything for a large chunk of the Afghan population. What you're hitting on is essentially the crux of the theory that underpins the NATO COIN course, and the "COIN Framework" we teach here. An insurgency comes about when three things exist - a vulnerable population (meaning a population that has real or perceived grievances that can be exploited), lack of government control (meaning the government cannot legitimately exercise its authority to influence the population or resolve those grievances, and leadership available for direction. Mao noted in On Guerilla Warfare that when the first two exist, the latter can be supplied. The insurgency gains legitimacy in the eyes of the population by addressing those prerequisites, so the Taliban gained legitimacy in the south initially in that manner, and has been able in many places to retain it. They build their links to the population by gaining the legitimacy, while the connection between the population and the government weakens.
There was such focus on this top down approach that nothing was done to alter the situation as perceived at the lowest level by many, many Afghans, particular those far from Kabul, where the connection to the central government was weak and tenuous to begin with. It was not a challenge for insurgents to connect themselves to the population. They took on the role of the executive and judiciary functions while co-opting traditional legislative functions (though I don't know if you can really classify shura/jirga concepts as "legislative", more of a hybrid, but I think you get what I'm saying. They gained legitimacy because they did what was wanted and they continue to do so. It's not for nothing that Karzai frequently was derided as "The Mayor Of Kabul" in recent times.
There was some realization that this was the case, and a lot of lofty talk about shifting focuses to address this, to actually getting a COIN focus in place. However, there then became a realization that "we" (ISAF/Coalition) couldn't really be labeled as counterinsurgents, only the Afghans could - we would just be provided them the support they need to do so (Security Force Assistance is the new buzzword, and IDAD - Internal Defence and Development). But I don't see how that's seamlessly translating into building legitimacy for GIRoA at the "local guy on the street" level yet. That's not to say it isn't, I just don't know of any good examples.
Brihard said:The discourse around counterinsurgency seems to be getting more and more in depth and complex. Frankly it seems increasingly prone to the masturbatory academia that seems to attend any effort to figure groups of people out and why they do stuff we don't like (my degree is in something along these lines. Ugh.) It strikes me that there are many with a vested interest in convincing our powers that be how things ought to be done in the context of a theoretical ideal, as opposed to simply going out and *interacting* with the populations we operate within, discerning through those interactions what *they* want- and consciously NOT trying to extrapolate.
Agreed again. There's more money to be made writing the latest great COIN book that really only recycles old ideas - and a lot of the stuff out there is so complex and cryptic wanking that it offers little value. In my view, for COIN to really work, you have to make it simple enough that every soldier can get a grip on the mindset, which isn't actually that hard in a lot of ways. The framework we use in our lessons (I'll try to find an image to post) is simple, ANSF troops get it and get what it means to them fairly quickly. When I had the opportunity to teach at JMRC Hohenfels, we got some pushback from some people about why we had dropped a bunch of material that had previously been used. Our reasoning was simply that it was a bunch of theory that had no practical application, and thus not worth included. My training team decided to make the material simple but thorough, not adding in all sorts of intellectual wanking because it doesn't add to the course.
Brihard said:Is COIN itself flawed in that it tries to suck strategy as high as possible as often as possible? Again, to my very amateur eyes it seems that, more than anything else we've been in, this is where intelligent, culturally aware junior leaders- company level at highest, ideally at the platoon level embedded in a community - ought to be trusted to figure out what the most local portion of the population needs, wants, and expects, and to communicate that up and to act on it as much as is possible, as locally as is possible, and as quickly as is possible. We seem to like easily doctrinalized solutions, where maybe there needs to be mroe acceptance of each situation being different, contributing under 'mission command' to a bigger intent, but with MUCH less bloody interfrence in how it's done at the local level.
That's the idea that is pushed on the COIN Leaders Course - the problem that seems to come out of Lessons Learned is that while "every soldier a sensor" is an awesome concept, processing all the information obtained becomes difficult if not impossible, and it becomes easy to then impose our own ideas about what a community needs, wants, expects. And there are myriad stories of how that goes wrong. The most common (probably apocryphal given the variations I've heard but apt nevertheless) story involves building a well in the centre of town on discovering that local women must bring water from a source a couple of kilometres away. Sounds great, right? Sure, until you roll back through a few weeks later and discover the well destroyed. By the women. Why? Because you've taken away the time they had to socialize. They didn't view the water trip as an impediment, but as a positive thing and it wasn't recognized by outsiders as such. That's the kind of problem that comes up.
Brihard said:Am I wrong in thinking that CIMIC, etc, have perhaps lost perspective on themselves as enablers? That, as opposed to being an end unto themselves, with the consequential upwards-sucking of authority, responsibility, command, and decision making - they ought to be pushing assets as low as is possible to leave enablers at the greatest disposal of those with the highest resolution of local 'feel'?
That I can't speak to - I'm not a CIMIC dude (though that's probably, realistically, where I'm going to head), but maybe they have, or maybe the problem is that they're not being employed effectively as enablers. We have a hard task shaking off both a kinetic-only mindset (but don't mistake COIN for being non-kinetic - "hearts and minds" does sometimes mean "two in the chest and one in the mind"), and wanting to project our ideas of what's right on others. That's the whole "Afghan right" concept that we work toward here now - and it's well summarized in the Australian LL videos I mentioned by one of their officers: "If you've come up with a plan and a course of action that makes sense to you from your western perspective, then it isn't going to work, go back to the drawing board." (or something close to that).