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Russia in the 21st Century [Superthread]

So if Putin is replaced either in the near term (through economic and diplomatic actions) or long term (as his term in office ends), the question remains: What next? The American interest looks at this question, but there are few good answers right now:

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/02/26/after-putin/

After Putin
Andrew Wood

Putin’s poll numbers may be sky high now, but not even he and his inner circle believe they will stay that way for long.

Eighty percent poll ratings, almost four years to go before the next elections, and the chance to stay until 2024—what’s not to like for Putin? The outside world, and the majority of Russians, suppose that he will stay that long, if not longer. However, if we were to judge by the actions of Putin and his immediate circle, we would conclude that they have little confidence in the durability of the people’s love for the Russian President.

Russia today is a state in thrall to a distorted narrative. Putin has to stay in control of that narrative. The institutional structures of the state have been deprived of their independent meaning, leaving the Kremlin, and therefore Putin, both exalted and isolated. There is a considerable range of questions about Putin personally and the system he has promoted that will not simply disappear. If only one of them were allowed to become a focus of public dissatisfaction, especially as a particular illustration of a wider problem, the regime would be threatened. Lies and repression remain necessities. So too now is the securely implanted perception of Fortress Russia, surrounded by enemies and doing its duty in Ukraine.

Putin’s sacralization as national leader is reinforced by the absence of any other visible contender for power and the interdiction of significant argument over policies determined through him. There is a constitutional process for his replacement as President in 2018 or 2024, as the case may be. If he left the Kremlin before presidential elections could be held on the regular timetable, then the Prime Minister, for now the poorly rated Medvedev, would act as interim President for three months.

But Putin will not go voluntarily. He would be taking a huge personal risk if he left office in 2018, or even, on present form, in 2024. Appointing his long term and obedient associate Medvedev in 2008 led in the end to the airing of unwelcome ideas and to street protests. Any successor to Putin now would be bound to show himself (or notionally herself) as seeking to become his own President; in case of need Putin would be the ideal scapegoat. But Putin is also the prisoner of the course he has followed since his return to the Kremlin in May 2012. The risks of that course are mounting, be they for Russia’s economy, for its confrontational relationship with the outside world (and not just the West), or for its internal stability.

There may well be those in Putin’s immediate circle who recognize the dangers they face over the next couple of years. It is possible that, if his health came into question, or if it seemed to them that he was ready to take some gamble too far, at least some of them might seek to combine against him. They have after all their fortunes and safety to look to. But they are also complicit in what has been done over the past fifteen years, and their overall objective would be to preserve the essential characteristics of this period. Few if any of Putin’s inner circle have political credibility. Choosing a safe successor would mean choosing the political orientation of the next President—supposing that plotting Putin’s overthrow were even a practicable option. A whiff of liberalization would bring its own risks. More intense Russian nationalism, others. A caretaker in case of ill health or Putin’s death would prolong the period of contention as to Russia’s future course, not resolve it.

Putin’s immediate colleagues are not the only Russians who have a stake in the present system and stand to lose from its decay. But the majority are beneficiaries rather than principal actors. Moscow remains the political center of Russia’s political life and fortunes. The present regime would not be so insistent on the dangers of color revolutions, or so willing to turn to semi-legal groups like anti-Maidan, exploit criminal groups and interests, or organize mass demonstrations, if Russia’s leaders were confident of their grip, even after reducing the 2011-12 protest movement to virtual impotence. Russia has become a country suspended in potential anarchy, not a state ready to evolve in harmony with itself.

Western policymakers need therefore to contemplate the risks of eventual breakdown in Russia. That is not to say that Russia is, for us, too big to fail. Nor is it to urge us to bring about regime change. Neither option is practicable or desirable for the West to prevent or to undertake. We should, however, act in the case of Ukraine in the knowledge that what Russia is doing there is not as the Kremlin claims because of the threat to Russia from the West, but because of the developing crisis within Russia itself. Putin is not to be appeased by Western concessions, or necessarily by the West abandoning Ukraine. The respect we owe to Russia is to its people, not to its regime. Change can now come only with a new regime, whose birth may well be rough.

Andrew Wood is an associate fellow of Chatham House and a former British Ambassador to Belgrade, and subsequently to Moscow (mid 1995–early 2000).
 
Well, there is one less potential replacement as a Russian opposition leader was murdered the day before he was to lead an anti-Putin rally. The story demo the CBC site is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act.

Boris Nemtsov, Russian opposition leader, shot dead in Moscow
Nemtsov was to lead major anti-Putin rally in Moscow on Sunday
The Associated Press Posted: Feb 27, 2015 5:14 PM ET Last Updated: Feb 27, 2015 7:19 PM ET


Boris Nemtsov, a charismatic former deputy prime minister turned Russian opposition leader and outspoken critic of President Vladimir Putin was shot and killed in Moscow Saturday, officials said.

Nemtsov's death comes just a day before a planned protest against Putin's rule. The Kremlin said that Putin will personally oversee the investigation.

Nemtsov, who was 55, was a sharp critic of Putin, assailing the government's inefficiency, rampant corruption and the Kremlin's policy on Ukraine, which has strained Russia-West ties to a degree unseen since Cold War times.

The Russian Interior Ministry, which oversees Russia's police force, said that Nemtsov was shot four times from a passing car as he was walking a bridge just outside the Kremlin shortly after midnight.

Interior Ministry spokeswoman Yelena Alexeyeva told reporters on the scene that Nemtsov was walking with a female acquaintance, a Ukrainian citizen, when a vehicle drove up and unidentified assailants shot him dead. The woman wasn't hurt.

Opposition activist Ilya Yashin said on Ekho Moskvy radio that he last spoke with Nemtsov two days before the killing. Nemtsov was working on a report presenting evidence that he believed proved Russia's direct involvement in the separatist rebellion that erupted in eastern Ukraine last year.

Ukraine and the West have accused Russia of backing the rebels there with troops and weapons. Moscow has denied the accusations, but large numbers of sophisticated heavy weapons in the rebels' possession has strained the credibility of its denials.

'Atmosphere of hatred'

Yashin said he had no doubt that Nemtsov's murder was politically motivated.

"Boris Nemtsov was a stark opposition leader who criticized the most important state officials in our country, including President Vladimir Putin. As we have seen, such criticism in Russia is dangerous for one's life," he said.

Political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky told Ekho Mosvky radio station that he did not believe that Nemtsov's death would in any way serve Putin's interests.

"But the atmosphere of hatred toward alternative thinkers that has formed over the past year, since the annexation of Crimea, may have played its role," Belkovsky said, referring to the surge of intense and officially endorsed nationalist discourse increasingly prevalent in Russia since it annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula.

Nemtsov served a deputy prime minister in the 1990s and once was seen as a possible successor to Boris Yeltsin, Russia's first elected president. After Putin was first elected in 2000, Nemtsov became one of the most vocal critics of his rule. He helped organize street protests and has relentlessly exposed official corruption.

He was one of the organizers of the Spring March opposition protest set for Sunday, which comes amid a severe economic downturn in Russia caused by low oil prices and Western sanctions.

Earlier this month, Nemtsov told a Russian television news station in an interview that he feared he might be killed.

Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Rob Nicholson called the murder an "outrage" and said Canada is monitoring the situation in a tweet. 

The White House released a statement Friday evening condemning Nemtsov's murder.

"We call on the Russian government conduct a prompt, impartial and transparent investigation and ensure those responsible are brought to justice," the statement said.

Russian chess grandmaster and political activist Garry Kasparov, who himself is a vocal critic of Putin's government, tweeted that he was "devastated to hear about the brutal murder of my long-time opposition colleague Boris Nemtsov."
 
The Kremlin said that Putin will personally oversee the investigation.

As though that would be a good thing...I'm sure he will.
 
The Kremlin said that Putin will personally oversee the investigation.

Sympathy for the poor innocent sod who is going to take the fall for this.
 
Old Sweat said:
The Kremlin said that Putin will personally oversee the investigation.
tumblr_inline_ndvc40uzeK1r4j8j1.gif
 
A typically Soviet solution to an annoying problem - kill it. Not surprising and not new.

Stalin ordered Trotsky's death. Stalin also purged the military prior to World War Two.

There was a chap killed in London by ricin poisoning in the 80s and another not long ago by radiation poisoning.
 
Anyone want to start a poll if it's going to be Chechens, Georgians, or terrorist Ukrainians blamed for it?  Or maybe some political ally who was fighting for power within the same party.  Good way to get rid of multiple problems at once.
 
"Death is the solution to all problems. No man - no problems"

Joseph Stalin

It appears Uncle Vlad agrees with this.
 
Robert0288 said:
Anyone want to start a poll if it's going to be Chechens, Georgians, or terrorist Ukrainians blamed for it?  Or maybe some political ally who was fighting for power within the same party.  Good way to get rid of multiple problems at once.

One of the many story lines coming out of the government is that the Opposition had him killed to make him a martyr for the cause, and more powerful in death than in life.

My money is on Putin telling the truth. About as likely as anything else. ::)
 
cupper said:
One of the many story lines coming out of the government is that the Opposition had him killed to make him a martyr for the cause, and more powerful in death than in life.

My money is on Putin telling the truth. About as likely as anything else. ::)

Is this a Slavic thing? I recall similar things happening during the 90s in the Balkans.
 
Hamish Seggie said:
Is this a Slavic thing? I recall similar things happening during the 90s in the Balkans.

More likely regimes that grew out of the former Soviet / Communist era "Truths"
 
NORMALLY a boisterous sort, Peter Pomerantsev says he kept quiet when he found himself, at the age of 24, in a Moscow meeting room listening to 20 of the country’s top media executives discussing the news agenda for the week.

Not what the news was, but what they would make it,
said Mr. Pomerantsev, the author of a recent book chronicling the moral and financial corruption of modern-day Moscow and the manipulation of a Russian television industry that he later joined.

He listened in amazement, he says, as a prominent news anchor reviewed the coming events as if they were part of a film script, musing on how best to entertain the audience and questioning who that week’s enemy should be.

“It was shocking,” said Mr. Pomerantsev, speaking over coffee in London last month. “They really saw television and news as a movie, and talked about it as a movie.”

That was in 2002.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/14/world/europe/russian-tv-insider-says-putin-is-running-the-show-in-ukraine.html?_r=0

Mr. Pomerantsev’s area of study is propaganda, and he believes he saw many classic techniques at work in Moscow. He says one favorite trick was to put a credible expert next to a neo-Nazi, juxtaposing fact with fiction so as to encourage so much cynicism that viewers believed very little. Another was to give credence to conspiracy theories — by definition difficult to rebut because their proponents are immune to reasoned debate.

“What they are basically trying to undermine is the idea of a reality-based conversation,” Mr. Pomerantsev said, “and to use the idea of a plurality of truths to feed disinformation, which in the end looks to trash the information space.”

During Mr. Putin’s first stint in the presidency, slick techniques imported from the West helped engineer a spectacular rise in his approval ratings. They are now being deployed, not just against Western policies, but against basic Western values, Mr. Pomerantsev argues.

“It’s not so much an information war, but a war on information,” he said.

Believe exactly what you want to believe.
 
Here is a link from Vice News covering a pro-Putin march in Russia following the assassination of Boris Nemtsov. It is amazing how much support Putin has.

https://news.vice.com/video/thousands-attend-pro-putin-rally-moscows-anti-maidan-march
 
Sean Murray said:
Here is a link from Vice News covering a pro-Putin march in Russia following the assassination of Boris Nemtsov. It is amazing how much support Putin has.

https://news.vice.com/video/thousands-attend-pro-putin-rally-moscows-anti-maidan-march

Just need to know the correct incentives to use to motivate the masses. Loss of jobs, loss of housing, imprisonment all make good incentives. So does cash, alcohol, and certain perks.

Damn. There I go getting all cynical again. :nod:
 
I mentioned this article http://www.cast.ru/files/book/NewArmy_sm.pdf here
http://army.ca/forums/threads/111881/post-1353771.html#msg1353771.

That was the Russian perspective on Russia circa 2011.

Here is a Swedish perspective on Russia circa July 2013 - or as the Swedes put it, "in the wake of the major anti-regime demonstrations in 2011–2012"

http://www.foi.se/ReportFiles/foir_3734.pdf 

Like the Russian review it is a series of essays and runs to 160 pages.  Lots of good information about strengths of units, quality of units, deployability availability, ability to defend, ability to launch strikes.....


"Both the political and the military leadership in Russia apparently sense a great deal of insecurity."

The Swedish take on the Russian situation is much the same as the earlier Russian take.  Russia is weak and getting weaker but strong enough to make life difficult and dangerous.

This was published about 5 months before the Maidan was occupied, 8 months before Yanukovych was deposed and Crimean Russians voted for Anschluss.


 
cupper said:
Just need to know the correct incentives to use to motivate the masses. Loss of jobs, loss of housing, imprisonment all make good incentives. So does cash, alcohol, and certain perks.

Damn.

Certain perks meaning you get to stay alive til Comrade Vlad needs some more support....

Correct incentives means your family gets to eat today......
 
While this might be the "best" outcome for us, I suspect that Vlad has a few tricks up his sleeve, and am also reminded that historically, failing governments or States often use foreign adventures and wars to distract the population from the problems at home:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/03/russia-could-have-depression-currency.html

Russia could have depression, currency crisis and distressed sale of assets in 2015

Anders Aslund of the Peterson Institute for International Economics predicts a 10% decline in Russia's 2015 GDP.

Since November 2014, it has been obvious that the Russian economy would shrink sharply this year, and the January statistics indicate a serious decline has started. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has forecast a decline of GDP of 3 percent this year, while the Central Bank of Russia predicts a decline of 4.5 to 5 percent at an oil price of $50 per barrel. These forecasts appear overly optimistic. An abrupt fall of 10 percent seems more likely, because key Russian indicators look worse than in 2009, when Russia's GDP contracted by 8 percent.

Another proposed definition of depression includes two general rules:

a decline in real GDP exceeding 10%, or
a recession lasting 2 or more years.

Worldwide GDP fell by 15% from 1929 to 1932. Between 1929 and 1933, the gross national product of the United States decreased by 33% while the rate of unemployment increased to 25%.

In July 2014, the United States and the European Union imposed serious financial sanctions on Russia. In parallel, the global oil price started falling and with it the ruble. As if these factors were not bad enough, the Kremlin is pursuing an economic policy that aggravates the decline.

Tightened Western financial regulations have made the Western financial sanctions more severe than expected. The official Russian currency reserves are still large at $368 billion on February 13, but they have fallen by $110 billion since July 2014. However, the situation is considerably worse. The Ministry of Finance controls two sovereign wealth funds, the Reserve Fund with $88 billion and the National Welfare Fund with $78 billion on February 1. These funds will be used for bailouts of companies and infrastructure investments and are not real international reserves. The government plans to spend half of its Reserve Fund this year. In addition, the Central Bank of Russia holds gold worth $49 billion.

The liquid international reserves held by the Central Bank of Russia have declined from $257 billion on July 1 to $153 billion on February 13. Considering that Russia's foreign indebtedness is almost $600 billion and the expected currency outflow is about $100 billion this year, Russia's reserve situation is approaching a critical limit. At present, Russia loses more than $10 billion a month, which means that a real reserve crisis will erupt in the third quarter.

Even the official Russian reserve reports from the Russian Central bank have Russia on pace to have closer to $200 billion by the end of the year.

Will there be an emergency sale of oil and gas fields to China ?

Russian officials are saying there would now be "no political obstacles" to allowing Chinese stockholders to hold more than 50 percent of large oil and gas fields.
 
http://www.redflagnews.com/headlines-2015/developing-unconfirmed-russian-internet-rumors-that-vladimir-putin-is-dead

Anyone got any info on Uncle Vlad?
 
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