Russia in the 21st Century [Superthread]

[a_majoor]

And more on the challenges that Russia faces today:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/the-35-billion-problem-worrying-vladimir-putin-more-more-than-ukrainian-sanctions-10045102.html

The $35 billion problem worrying Vladimir Putin much more than Ukrainian sanctions
A recent ceasefire already looks set to crumble as fighting continues and Russia and Ukraine quibble over details of the agreement

Friday 13 February 2015

The Ukrainian ceasefire, tortuously reached over the past few days, already looks in danger of collapsing as reports emerge of continued fighting in the east of the country.

Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, who was present at the talks, has warned EU leaders to prepare further sanctions against Russia should the ceasefire breakdown yet again.

But the Ukrainian situation may be the least of Russian president Vladimir Putin’s problems.

The Russian leader today announced a $35 billion anti-crisis spending plan, but admitted to reporters he did not know how best to implement the cash injection into the economy, a local Russian news station reported.

The economy aside, Russia faces its own threat from Islamic extremism, weak national institutions, increasing societal pressures, and looming unemployment.

1. Economic failings

Russian oil giant Rosneft have their headquarters in Moscow

Western economic sanctions are – undoubtedly – having an adverse effect on the Russian economy. But they are not the whole story, and many businesses are still finding loopholes to circumvent them – as this Economist article demonstrates.

Joseph Dayan, Head of Markets at BCS Financial Group, Russia’s largest broker, told The Independent it was “misleading” to point to sanctions as being the chief economic problem in Russia but added: “The country is going into a crippling recession this year”.

“50 per cent of the Russian government’s income is derived from what you can take from the ground - oil and gas - and today oil is doing better but it is this huge dependency that is the main factor impacting the Russian economy.”

Mr Dayan continued: “In good times this is a plus, but in bad times it is a burden.”

“But they can survive under a year or two, even under sanctions, as long as oil prices do not dip below $50,” he said. If that happens, “it could all end very badly,” Mr Dayan claimed.

2. Weak institutions

Supporters of Russian opposition leader and anti-corruption blogger Alexei Navalny hold a rally in protest against court verdict at Manezhnaya Square in Moscow

Russia is ranked as among the most corrupt nations on the planet, scoring just 27 out of 100 (0: highly corrupt, 100: clean) in Transparency Internationals 2014 ranking. It came below countries such as Pakistan, Gambia, Sierra Leone and Nigeria.

What this corruption translates to (returning to the economy) is that since the Russian government slid back reforms – for example, re-taking many of the businesses that were privatised during the boom years – productivity and investment have slumped.

Put simply: there is no growth as a direct result of corruption. Previous sources of growth have been exhausted and investment requires protection of property right and enforcement of contracts – exactly what corruption dissuades.

3. Unemployment

Last month the first deputy prime minister warned Russians to expect a rise in unemployment.

Figures showed an eight-month high in December, just months after reaching a record low in August last year.

One of Mr Putin’s signature achievements has been to keep unemployment falling since 2000, should this slip he may begin to feel the pressure internally.

4. Societal pressures

The Russian birthrate is falling

Two factors are important to remember here: firstly the turbulence of the economy; and secondly President Putin’s crackdown on social freedoms.

This crackdown, often targeting certain groups such as the LGBT community or press freedoms, has fuelled a wave of middle-class migration.

In 2013 more than 186,000 people left Russia. To put that in perspective, that’s five times as many as two years earlier according to state statistics agency figures quoted by business magazine Sekret Firmy.

Around 40,000 Russians applied for asylum in 2013, according to a UN report, 76 per cent more than in the previous year.

Added to these departures is Russia’s falling population. According to a recently published article by Yale Global the country’s shrinking population “is the result of deaths outnumbering births for nearly two decades without sufficient immigration to compensate for the deficit.”

5. Threat from Islamic extremism

A video of a Chechen Isis fighter threatening Russia.

Last month a senior Russian diplomat claimed that more than 800 Russian nationals were fighting alongside Isis, also known as the Islamic State. New York security firm Soufan Group claims the number is nearer 2,000.

Russia is grappling with similar problems to that of Europe – namely rising nationalism and xenophobia, which pushes selected groups towards extremism.

Many of those allegedly fighting were from the Northern Caucasus Chechen province and an Isis video in August threatened to bring the war home. "We will liberate Chechnya and the Caucasus, Allah willing,” said one fighter in the video.

This area has already seen two separatist wars but had stabilised in recent years under Moscow, after a brief-lived Islamic uprising in 1999. Mr Putin, prime minster at the time, quickly crushed the rebellion.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Russia, the geographic expression, doesn't make much social, economic or political sense to me. There is a "natural" Russia which extends from somewhere around the Pirpet (Pinsk) Marshes (sorry Ukraine and Belarus) to the Urals ~ it is settled, Slavic (European) and Orthodox. Everything East of the Urals is something else ... Asian, at least in the sense that e.g. Afghanistan and Uzbekistan are Asian in Western Sibera, and Sinic/Mongol in Eastern Siberia.

It seems to me that the time is ripe for an all out political/diplomatic and, above all, economic attack on Russia with the aim of promoting rebellions and revolutions.

Perhaps, as I think the Chinese, wish, the end result will be to dismember Russia into at least three "new" states: traditional European Russia, a West Asian Siberian State and an East Asian Siberian State. Perhaps some other forms will present themselves.

I believe that what we have - Putin's kleptocracy - is bound to fail. I fear it may fail in some sort of violent, messy Götterdämmerung style climax; I hope it can be made to fail in a less violent, even faintly democratic manner - although I don't think Slavic and democratic go all that well together.

I believe that Russia can be 'beaten' and forced into some new configuration without Western military action ... I think economics (legitimate trade actions and sabotage) can do the trick.

 

[Kirkhill]

Despite the fact that I don't think Russia is militarily as strong as Vlad wants us to believe I also think he can be brought down by other means.

I also think that the Russian Empire can naturally split into three parts.  One of them certainly stretches from the Pripet Marshes to the Urals and centers on Moscow.

But... 

I don't think it extends any farther south than the tree line.  (What is the Russian equivalent of Red Deer>?). 

The second part is Siberia proper, east of the Urals and north of the tree line.

The third part is the problematic part. It extends from the Altai to the Carpathians and as far north as the treeline.  It has a common language family, Turkic and a common culture based on the horse.  It extends into Mongolia and Xinjiang, through the Stans and the Caucasus and into Turkey.

The Hordes of the Steppes have been a constant fear to Muscovy.  How would China react to a resurgence of the horsemen?

 

[Edward Campbell]

...

The Hordes of the Steppes have been a constant fear to Muscovy.  How would China react to a resurgence of the horsemen?

Same as they've done, again and again, for over a thousand years, since e.g. the Jin (金 - Gold), Yuan and Qing dynasties ... absorb and sinify them.

 

[Lightguns]

Despite the fact that I don't think Russia is militarily as strong as Vlad wants us to believe I also think he can be brought down by other means.

I also think that the Russian Empire can naturally split into three parts.  One of them certainly stretches from the Pripet Marshes to the Urals and centers on Moscow.

But... 

I don't think it extends any farther south than the tree line.  (What is the Russian equivalent of Red Deer>?). 

The second part is Siberia proper, east of the Urals and north of the tree line.

The third part is the problematic part. It extends from the Altai to the Carpathians and as far north as the treeline.  It has a common language family, Turkic and a common culture based on the horse.  It extends into Mongolia and Xinjiang, through the Stans and the Caucasus and into Turkey.

The Hordes of the Steppes have been a constant fear to Muscovy.  How would China react to a resurgence of the horsemen?

I find it interesting that alot of open source intelligence reports that the majority of the fighters going in are not Russian but Crimean-Russians.

 

[McG]

I find it interesting that alot of open source intelligence reports that the majority of the fighters going in are not Russian but Crimean-Russians.

I have not seen this claim.  Where did you find it?

 

[a_majoor]

Despite the fact that I don't think Russia is militarily as strong as Vlad wants us to believe I also think he can be brought down by other means.

I also think that the Russian Empire can naturally split into three parts.  One of them certainly stretches from the Pripet Marshes to the Urals and centers on Moscow.

But... 

I don't think it extends any farther south than the tree line.  (What is the Russian equivalent of Red Deer>?). 

The second part is Siberia proper, east of the Urals and north of the tree line.

The third part is the problematic part. It extends from the Altai to the Carpathians and as far north as the treeline.  It has a common language family, Turkic and a common culture based on the horse.  It extends into Mongolia and Xinjiang, through the Stans and the Caucasus and into Turkey.

The Hordes of the Steppes have been a constant fear to Muscovy.  How would China react to a resurgence of the horsemen?

Sounds a bit like the "Intermediate Region" theory of geopolitics:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate_Region

The Intermediate Region is an established geopolitical model set forth in the 1970s by the Greek historian Dimitri Kitsikis, professor at the University of Ottawa in Canada.[1] According to this model, the Eurasian continent is composed of three regions; in addition to Western Europe and the Far East, a third region called the "Intermediate Region" found between the two constitutes a distinct civilization. It roughly covers Eastern Europe and the Middle East and North Africa.

 

[Kirkhill]

Same as they've done, again and again, for over a thousand years, since e.g. the Jin (金 - Gold), Yuan and Qing dynasties ... absorb and sinify them.

Hmm.... I understand there are ways to make the process quite painless.

Funny how that absorption thing works:

Chlodio's outlaw Germans invade Paris, learn to speak bastard Latin and become the Franks
Rollo's outlaw Danes invade France, learn to speak French and become the Normans
William the Bastard's Normans invade Sussex, learn to speak like the Angles and become English

Mongols invade China, set themselves up as overlords in Beijing and become Chinese - while the Han forget about why they have been fighting over the Yalu Bend for the last few millenia.

I can actuallly see an effective sinification programme working between the Iron Gates (the European ones where the Danube pierces the Carpathians and the Asian ones in the Altai which guard the Silk Road into China).  The memories of the Hordes are not so old there and the wealth and freedom that trade brought likely remains fresh.

The issue remains what to do about Muscovy.  They fear the Tatar Yoke.  They want to be Westerners not Easterners.  And yet they can't stand us and fear us as well.  Just look at their troop dispositions.  What troops, air defenses and equipment they have are concentrated west of the Urals and in particular around Moscow.

 

[Kirkhill]

Sounds a bit like the "Intermediate Region" theory of geopolitics:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate_Region

Interesting bit about the Intermediate Region but I would be splitting it somewhere around Syria, where the Turks of the Steppes and the Arabs of the Middle East and North Africa are still duking it out for supremacy.

The Turks are to the Arabs what Horst and Hengest's Angles were to the Brits.  Too lazy to do their own fighting they invited strangers to do the work for them and are resentful to this day that the strangers became their masters.

 

[Lightguns]

I have not seen this claim.  Where did you find it?

Gee, I am not sure now, I read it via a twitter link on two occasions, one was European and the Other Indian. 

 

[vonGarvin]

I don't understand why we wish to attack Russia, Putin or anyone else for that matter. 

Despite years of indoctrination to the contrary as a youth, Russia (or as it was then, the USSR) does not want anything more than to be the big kid in his own back yard.  Period.  And this back yard does not include Europe.  Of course, there's the whole matter of the Warsaw Pact, but let's not forget that Stalin, and later Kruschev, etc, had fresh memories of Europeans coming to Russia on the rampage, not the other way around.

 

[CougarKing]

fresh memories of Europeans coming to Russia on the rampage, not the other way around.

Napoleon and Hitler's invasions of Russia aside, aren't you forgetting at least 5 instances where the Russians went the other way?

1.)The 1956 Hungarian uprising( And all the Soviet armoured divisions that annihilated it)
2.) August 1968- Soviet/Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia.
3.) Soviet invasion of half of Poland when Hitler and Stalin partitioned Poland in Sept. 1939
4.) Soviet invasion of Finland in the 1940 "Winter War"
5.) Soviet occupation of the Baltic republics of Lithuania, Lativa and Estonia in 1940

Those memories are bound to be as fresh in the collective consciousness of the other countries involved as well.

 

[vonGarvin]

Napoleon and Hitler's invasions of Russia aside, aren't you forgetting at least 5 instances where the Russians went the other way?

1.)The 1956 Hungarian uprising( And all the Soviet armoured divisions that annihilated it)
2.) August 1968- Soviet/Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia.
3.) Soviet invasion of half of Poland when Hitler and Stalin partitioned Poland in Sept. 1939
4.) Soviet invasion of Finland in the 1940 "Winter War"
5.) Soviet occupation of the Baltic republics of Lithuania, Lativa and Estonia in 1940

Those memories are bound to be as fresh in the collective consciousness of the other countries involved as well.

I don't forget those, but in terms of points 1, 2, 3 and 4, they all have the same thing in common: buffer zone. 

1956 and 1968 were about maintaining that zone (Both independent Slovakia and Hungary were belligerents in the "Great Patriotic War".  The Soviets didn't forget that)
1939 was about gaining more to that zone: Stalin knew that it would have to eventually come to blows with Germany, and the further west it started, the better.  As an aside, the territory gained in 1939 by the USSR is now part of Belarus and Ukraine.
1940 with Finland was a bit of an anomoly, but in the end, it was about buffer: Finland posed no threat to the USSR, but there were territorial "disputes"
Gaining the Baltic was similar to 1939 in Poland: again, gaining that zone.

In the end, right or wrong, the USSR saved itself by gaining that buffer zone in 1939 and 1940.  That makes little comfort for those in Poland and in the Baltic states today, however.  But in the end, had Germany started Barbarossa a few hundred km to the East, that war would surely have been ended in Germany's favour in late 1941.

Russia (Moscow) never forgot that, and they still remember, and when they see US armour literally metres from their border in Narva, they tend to get a bit a antsy. 


And now, after having seen Kyiv swing suddenly from "Russia Friendly" to "EU friendly" through a (perceived) coup d'état, they are full blown panic mode.  And this won't end well, I fear. 

 

[Kirkhill]

I don't understand why we wish to attack Russia, Putin or anyone else for that matter. 

Despite years of indoctrination to the contrary as a youth, Russia (or as it was then, the USSR) does not want anything more than to be the big kid in his own back yard.  Period.  And this back yard does not include Europe.  Of course, there's the whole matter of the Warsaw Pact, but let's not forget that Stalin, and later Kruschev, etc, had fresh memories of Europeans coming to Russia on the rampage, not the other way around.

I don't wish to "attack" Putin.  I wish that Putin would stop "attacking" Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia and Estonia and would make nice with Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland - not to mention the whole of the EU. 

If he won't stop then I would prefer that some of his countrymen stop him.  Failing that - I FEAR - that leaving him alone is not an option. 

It becomes wearisome holding the shield over one's head and constantly backing up.  Sooner or later one is inclined to try to strike back.

And this has nothing to do with indoctrination.  It has everything to do with "what have they done for us lately?"

:cheers:

 

[a_majoor]

I don't understand why we wish to attack Russia, Putin or anyone else for that matter. 

Despite years of indoctrination to the contrary as a youth, Russia (or as it was then, the USSR) does not want anything more than to be the big kid in his own back yard.  Period.  And this back yard does not include Europe.  Of course, there's the whole matter of the Warsaw Pact, but let's not forget that Stalin, and later Kruschev, etc, had fresh memories of Europeans coming to Russia on the rampage, not the other way around.

While it is true that various peoples have invaded Russia over the centuries, it is equally true that the various nations that Russia sees as being in its sphere of influence are dead set against being part of the Russian anything, and are determined to become part and parcel of Europe and reap the benefits of being European. Russia may want to be the "Big Kid" on the block, but to the Balts, Finns, Ukrainians, Georgians and the nations of the "Near Beyond" Russia looks more like a bully who wants to steal their lunch money.

During the Cold War *we* could close our eyes and avoid the fact that most of the nations in the Warsaw Pact were held there in bondage and not by choice, mostly because any miscalculation would have ended up going nuclear. During the period between the fall of the wall and Putin's Munich 2007 speech, when nuclear conflict seemed to have been taken off the table, we were willing to accomodate the aspirations of the Eastern European nations to join the West, and I certainly recall that every possible means were also used to "invite" the Russians to take part in the banquet as well, from entering into the "G-X" groups to pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into the Russian space program.

Russia's new ruling cliques seem to be determined to go back to older ways of thinking and acting, but they should also understand that by asserting themselves in that fashion, they are also inviting a huge amount of pushback.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I don't understand why we wish to attack Russia, Putin or anyone else for that matter. 

Despite years of indoctrination to the contrary as a youth, Russia (or as it was then, the USSR) does not want anything more than to be the big kid in his own back yard.  Period.  And this back yard does not include Europe.  Of course, there's the whole matter of the Warsaw Pact, but let's not forget that Stalin, and later Kruschev, etc, had fresh memories of Europeans coming to Russia on the rampage, not the other way around.

While what you're saying may be true, it's that bit in yellow becomes the contentious point:  who decides who's "Europe"?  Some places are pretty black and white, it's those pesky grey areas - including Ukraine, with bits of the country having historical links westward, and bits having historical links in the other direction - that cause grief.

 

[vonGarvin]

That area is indeed grey and murky. Ukraine is riddled with ethnic Russians (among other groups), but I would offer that Germany is definitely not their backyard, nor Poland, (in spite of parts of East Prussia being part of Russia), but Ukraine is that grey belt, I suppose.

But for the other posters: we have much larger problems than a bunch of Slavs fighting each other. Neither group wants to horn in on us, nor has either threatened us.

Let's focus on things that matter to us, namely the very dangerous ISIS.

 

[Kirkhill]

That area is indeed grey and murky. Ukraine is riddled with ethnic Russians (among other groups), but I would offer that Germany is definitely not their backyard, nor Poland, (in spite of parts of East Prussia being part of Russia), but Ukraine is that grey belt, I suppose.

But for the other posters: we have much larger problems than a bunch of Slavs fighting each other. Neither group wants to horn in on us, nor has either threatened us.

Let's focus on things that matter to us, namely the very dangerous ISIS.

Shirley! You Jest?
 
The Wogs have the intent but not the means.  The Slavs have the means (diminished) but not the intent (debatable).  Neither one represent a Clear and Present Danger (Thank You Tom Clancy) although neither one can be entirely ruled out as a threat.

Part of the reason for the rise of ISIS is the lack of the bipolar hegemony of the Cold War.  Actually I wouldn't mind a strong Russia.  The strong, silent type. Talking softly and carrying a big stick.  Offering the occasional carrot and generally being a good neighbour.

The reason Vlad spends so much time spouting off is because he has to appear strong and he knows he isn't.  The problem for him is that most folks in his neighbourhood also know that he isn't.  He is strong enough to make their lives miserable.  He is strong enough to utterly destroy them (if he doesn't mind a little bit of glow in the night skies around his borders).  What he isn't, is strong enough to compel them.

 

[Kirkhill]

Hey guys,

The "war" is over and "we" have won. 

I mentioned this article http://www.cast.ru/files/book/NewArmy_sm.pdf here
http://army.ca/forums/threads/111881/post-1353771.html#msg1353771.

It absolutely has to be read. It demonstrates the Russian military complex has been infiltrated by Canadian bureaucrats who have imposed all the same policies on Russia as they have on you.

Helicopters bought against military advice to prop up a regional business (Ka52)

Anything that flies centralized under the Air Force, only to discover the Air Force is unresponsive to VDVs need to train paras and the Army's need to have helicopters available when they need them, which results in the Air Force helos being put under Army command and the Air Force being only tasked to train pilots.

Everything subordinated to four Joint Task Forces

Available equipment concentrated into a reduced number of units with reduced manpower.  Battlegroups are the standing operational force.  Units are understrength.  Recruiting is difficult.  Wives and Girlfriends hate the service.

Generals told to downsize but never seem to go away.  Command heavy.  Lacking in modern radars, PGMs and night fighting capabilities. 

Government telling Abn forces to use Armd vehicles that can't be lifted by the helos available.  Paras buying Polaris ATVs for trials with available helos......

And it goes on and on and on.....

Obviously these guys have all got their MBAs from Carleton and Phoenix.

 

[Edward Campbell]

That area is indeed grey and murky. Ukraine is riddled with ethnic Russians (among other groups), but I would offer that Germany is definitely not their backyard, nor Poland, (in spite of parts of East Prussia being part of Russia), but Ukraine is that grey belt, I suppose.

But for the other posters: we have much larger problems than a bunch of Slavs fighting each other. Neither group wants to horn in on us, nor has either threatened us.

Let's focus on things that matter to us, namely the very dangerous ISIS.

I don't think IS** is or is likely to become an existential threat to Canada or America or Europe, Australia, Japan, etc, etc ...

I think Russia is a threat, a real, measurable threat, to the peace and stability of Eurasia, and, therefore, a problem for the
US led West.

I think the best way to "handle" Russia is through an all out, sustained, crippling economic attack; the aim being to promote internal dissent, rebellion and revolution. I don't think the final "shape" of the outcome matters beyond Russia being reduced in power.

I think the best way to "handle" IS** is also through economics: First, "follow the money;" Second, find the money and block it; Third punish the sources of the money ~ and yes I am conscious of the fact that I advocate "punishing" (let's say assassinating) Saudi princes and Gulf State emirs and the like.

  (Broadly, I remain wedded to the notion of isolating, completely isolating, the Arab and West Asian worlds, from
    Palestine through to Pakistan, (excepting Jordan) ... nothing enters but arms, nothing comes here except payments - no immigrants, no parents,
    no students, no poor, innocent, sick children needing medical care ... nothing. I think isolation will also work against Russia.

    In the end i think most of the Islamic Crescent, which stretched from the Atlantic coast of North Africa through to
    the Indonesian archipelago, needs some, in most cases of lot, of something akin to 18th century European style enlightenment.
    My guess is that will not come until there is something akin to a reformation and that may need a long series
    of bloody internecine wars throughout the region, lasting generations.)

We don't need to spend huge amounts of troops or bombs - we can do some bombing or other combat - money should be the main weapon.

My guess is that Russia needs something different: just, really, a few "teeth" pulled so that it cannot disrupt its neighbourhood and will be forced to be a good better 'citizen.'