PRC Is Ready to Invade Hong Kong
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Interesting headline you made there...tomahawk6 said:
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Spencer100
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If it hits the fan......what do we do about the 100,000's of Canadians living there?
I wonder if the gov even has a plan or gamed this?
I wonder if the gov even has a plan or gamed this?
300,000 to be exact.
I'm sure they will be fine if they stay away from the protests. China wants to end the unrest, not deal with foreigners who might be nearby.
The big worry should be about the numbers that are going to pack up and leave and return or move to Canada and the impact on the economy.
https://globalnews.ca/news/5388549/hong-kong-protests-bc-expats/
I'm sure they will be fine if they stay away from the protests. China wants to end the unrest, not deal with foreigners who might be nearby.
The big worry should be about the numbers that are going to pack up and leave and return or move to Canada and the impact on the economy.
https://globalnews.ca/news/5388549/hong-kong-protests-bc-expats/
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Exactly that’s why I question the use of the word invasion.Remius said:
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RomeoJuliet said:
Police action would be more accurate I guess. I bet the Chinese security forces are bigger than our military by several factors. So it might seem like an invasion. Especially if they are brought in from outside the Hong Kong area.
Spencer100
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But if got really ugly fast? The thousands heading to the airport. The cries for help at the embassies. Canada could do nothing.
Spencer100
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Yup! I was going to say something about that too.
Xi is really pushing on all fronts. South China Sea, HK, Trade with the US (trump is really helping on that one)
Xi is really pushing on all fronts. South China Sea, HK, Trade with the US (trump is really helping on that one)
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Guys, guys, guys -- not to worry, they're available to help out if needed, according to CHN's Communist Party media …
Nothing to see here, either …
In the meantime, beware fake news …
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I would say that Xi is pushing the South China Sea claims. Hong Kong and trade are more responses -- HK protesters escalating from being against the mainland extradition treaty to anti-HK gov't and PRC; trade is in response to Trump as well as Trudeau's publicly criticizing PRC's policies.Spencer100 said:
Any similarities with US/Iran policies? Bolton, with a known hate-on for Iran comes on board; Trump's "policies" tend to be whoever talks to him last; suddenly Iran = Mordor, Iran starts striking back; Fox & Friends: "See? Told you they were evil."
Cornered animals have a tendency to bite.
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China already has a few troops troops in the city …tomahawk6 said:
... so any "invasion" could also happen "Crimea style" from the inside out.
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What if China abducts some Canadian citizens in Hong Kong into PRC, both for specific reasons involving the individuals and to put more pressure on us regarding Meng Wanzhou?
Mark
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Mark
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The Hong Kong situation is deliciously or hideously (take your pick) complex. From China's point of view, there are, simply, no good choices: anything and everything they will do or even just want to do will be wrong.
HK is one of the world's financial hubs. Hundreds of billions of dollars (cash, merchandise, futures, you name it) pass through there every day ~ HK matters more than all of Canada in that regard
The business of HK is business. The Hang Seng index (stocks and bonds) is tanking; billions and billions of dollars, yen, euros and so on are being lost, day after day.
The demonstrations have stretched the HK police past the breaking point. The force is 30,000+ strong for a city of 7.5 million. Large, but it is a complex place to police and some parts of the force are not available for routine duties, even in dire emergencies like Force 10 typhoons.
China needs a calm, working Hong Kong for a whole host of reasons including Taiwan.
If, and it's a Huge IF, Taiwan can be persuaded that "one country, two systems" can work and that China can be trusted, then peaceful reunification remains on the table; if China is seen to be subverting HK's (very limited) "independence" then the only way to get Taiwan back is to invade, with uncomfortable, because they are unknown, consequences.
Some Chinese officials are convinced that there must be some foreign interference/instigation in these demonstrations ... I am nearly 100% sure that there is some covert, indirect, foreign support for some of the organizers: from Taiwan, Japan, Singapore and even Australia. I sincerely doubt that the Americans aresmart enough subtle enough to work, sub rosa, in HK; the Australians and even the Brits, maybe, maybe even the Canadians, but not the Americans. But what I think doesn't matter, some Chinese officials think John Bolton is behind this.
The HK police force needs some help. The PLA is the worst possible sort of help ... but what else is there?
Carrie Lam has failed, miserably, but I cannot see how Beijing can replace her without losing face ... and HK or not, this is China, face matters, immensely. If you don't grasp that then you cannot ever hope to understand what's going on.
There is only one good course open: the anti-Carrie Lam faction ~ which is at least 35% of HK, maybe 75% right now ~ needs to back away, for a while. They need to give the police time to rest and recuperate and reconsider ... otherwise, the PLA will, most likely, have to go on the streets and that will be a disaster. The young leaders of what is, now, an independence movement don't want to do that because it would look like surrender. It wouldn't be but I doubt they can or will see it that way. Tempers are too high, on all sides. The people are angry at the authorities; the police are getting angry at the protesters and at a government which they think is wishy-washy because it tries to apologize when, inevitably, the police are less than perfect. The Chinese government is confused and, frankly, terrified and has too many balls in the air, right now.
Singapore is making hay ~ money is pouring in. Ditto Sydney. Even London is doing better, despite the Brexit.
As for Canada ... I spent a few minutes this morning with an old friend and mentor. He's a HK native whose judgement is always sound and who has extensive contacts in the Canada-HK community. He says that thousands, likely tens of thousands of Canadians who live in HK are packing their bags right now. What will that mean for Canada? We will get thousands of highly skilled (mostly business-oriented) people with large cash reserves; they are amongst the most productive people on earth; Canadians, by and large, are amongst the least productive people in the OECD.
My :2c:
HK is one of the world's financial hubs. Hundreds of billions of dollars (cash, merchandise, futures, you name it) pass through there every day ~ HK matters more than all of Canada in that regard
The business of HK is business. The Hang Seng index (stocks and bonds) is tanking; billions and billions of dollars, yen, euros and so on are being lost, day after day.
The demonstrations have stretched the HK police past the breaking point. The force is 30,000+ strong for a city of 7.5 million. Large, but it is a complex place to police and some parts of the force are not available for routine duties, even in dire emergencies like Force 10 typhoons.
China needs a calm, working Hong Kong for a whole host of reasons including Taiwan.
If, and it's a Huge IF, Taiwan can be persuaded that "one country, two systems" can work and that China can be trusted, then peaceful reunification remains on the table; if China is seen to be subverting HK's (very limited) "independence" then the only way to get Taiwan back is to invade, with uncomfortable, because they are unknown, consequences.
Some Chinese officials are convinced that there must be some foreign interference/instigation in these demonstrations ... I am nearly 100% sure that there is some covert, indirect, foreign support for some of the organizers: from Taiwan, Japan, Singapore and even Australia. I sincerely doubt that the Americans are
The HK police force needs some help. The PLA is the worst possible sort of help ... but what else is there?
Carrie Lam has failed, miserably, but I cannot see how Beijing can replace her without losing face ... and HK or not, this is China, face matters, immensely. If you don't grasp that then you cannot ever hope to understand what's going on.
There is only one good course open: the anti-Carrie Lam faction ~ which is at least 35% of HK, maybe 75% right now ~ needs to back away, for a while. They need to give the police time to rest and recuperate and reconsider ... otherwise, the PLA will, most likely, have to go on the streets and that will be a disaster. The young leaders of what is, now, an independence movement don't want to do that because it would look like surrender. It wouldn't be but I doubt they can or will see it that way. Tempers are too high, on all sides. The people are angry at the authorities; the police are getting angry at the protesters and at a government which they think is wishy-washy because it tries to apologize when, inevitably, the police are less than perfect. The Chinese government is confused and, frankly, terrified and has too many balls in the air, right now.
Singapore is making hay ~ money is pouring in. Ditto Sydney. Even London is doing better, despite the Brexit.
As for Canada ... I spent a few minutes this morning with an old friend and mentor. He's a HK native whose judgement is always sound and who has extensive contacts in the Canada-HK community. He says that thousands, likely tens of thousands of Canadians who live in HK are packing their bags right now. What will that mean for Canada? We will get thousands of highly skilled (mostly business-oriented) people with large cash reserves; they are amongst the most productive people on earth; Canadians, by and large, are amongst the least productive people in the OECD.
My :2c:
Spencer100
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ER Campbell
Great summary of the news. Thanks. Well some of that sounds good for Canada. It does not sound great for the world. I have way thought HK was a great thing for China. We had all my business contracts and banking with China run though HK. I have always hoped that the HK example would help to change China (like the rule of law) for the better not the other way around.
Is China being moved to some breaking point? Trump and US on trade, Business and economic growth is moving in the wrong direction, the Uyghars, Iran pushing for help, Taiwan seeing what is happening and not liking it. The SCS situation. Crackdown on internet and media, The social credit system. I doesn't seem like happy times
Great summary of the news. Thanks. Well some of that sounds good for Canada. It does not sound great for the world. I have way thought HK was a great thing for China. We had all my business contracts and banking with China run though HK. I have always hoped that the HK example would help to change China (like the rule of law) for the better not the other way around.
Is China being moved to some breaking point? Trump and US on trade, Business and economic growth is moving in the wrong direction, the Uyghars, Iran pushing for help, Taiwan seeing what is happening and not liking it. The SCS situation. Crackdown on internet and media, The social credit system. I doesn't seem like happy times
MilEME09
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Part of the problem for China too is social media and reporters, news travels much faster these days, while they may be able to censor things internally, external not so much. This isn't the 1980's another tiananmen square would greatly damage China in the eyes of the world, and would solidify Taiwan that Beijing will try to take it by force.
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They will probably close down the internet and the airspace to civilian traffic before moving in.
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