Politics in 2018

[pbi]

It's the economy stupid. Realize that. Look at the economy of occupied Europe in the Second World War. Who did that benefit? No free country; no free economy.

A sovereign nation protects it's self and does not rely on another sovereign nation for protection.

Yes it certainly is the economy (I don't know who the "stupid" is you're talking to...). It's the economy that pays for everything. If I was the Liberal Govt right now, I would immediately slash corporate taxes below US levels, even if we suck up some initial and temporary fiscal pain. Then, I would do everything I could to encourage the  growth of business both large and small, while still providing reasonable protection for workers and the environment. I am NOT talking about turning the clock backwards.

If we want to provide more opportunities for women, aboriginals and new Canadians (all excellent goals IMHO) then we have to have a vibrant economy to allow that to happen. No economy, no opportunities.

Canada is an excellent place to live, and it can be a very good place to do business, if the Govt of the day keeps its eye on the economic ball first, and social goals later.

 

[Rifleman62]

And, the Carbon Tax??????

PBI:

(I don't know who the "stupid" is you're talking to...).

It's the expression. For sure not aimed at you .

"It's the economy, stupid" is a slight variation of the phrase "The economy, stupid", which James Carville had coined as a campaign strategist of Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against sitting president George H. W. Bush.

 

[pbi]

And, the Carbon Tax??????

PBI:
It's the expression. For sure not aimed at you .

:facepalm: :facepalm: OK, now I remember. Too many aluminum messtins, I guess.

 

[Good2Golf]

This is great news, if very surprising. I assume Trump will soon be tweeting threats against the US International Trade Commission over this.

Perhaps surprising if one didn't consider the influence of a number of key state leaders, including Kay Ivey (R-AL).  :nod:

Regards,
G2G

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

As for the PM in Davos versus trump, I'll look at it this way. Trump is there looking for new business for the USA, Canada is set to sign a deal that will give Canadian business access to 500 million people, shortly after signing another deal that gave Canadian business access to a additional 500 million people. Actions speak louder than words.

Great....we now expect our businesses to compete against slave labour on a free trade even plane? 

 

[Altair]

Great....we now expect our businesses to compete against slave labour on a free trade even plane?

we do it now with Mexico. Canada has done fine.

 

[jollyjacktar]

we do it now with Mexico. Canada has done fine.

Sure we have.  Just ask all those workers at Caterpillar etc whose jobs went down to Mexico.

:sarcasm:

 

[pbi]

Great....we now expect our businesses to compete against slave labour on a free trade even plane?

My concern also, although in general I'm in favour of Free Trade because we need to be able to sell our products as widely as we can. I have some family members who work in manufacturing in Ontario and I wonder what is going to happen to them.  I live in Eastern Ontario, which is a region that has suffered a serious loss of manufacturing in the last few decades. Trenton, Brockville, Kingston, Smith Falls, Napanee, Prescott and Cornwall all come to mind. Around here you can see what happens when a plant shuts down and goes to West Virginia or Arkansas or Mexico.

I don't think we can compete against the low-end industrial jobs where low-skilled foreign workers making peanuts (by our standards) are cranking stuff out. Canadian (and American) workers aren't prepared to live on those wages, nor should they be. But, at the same time, are  we prepared to pay 100 bucks more for an item in order to keep our fellow Canadians in industrial jobs? Or would we all rather go to Walmart or shop cross border and get it at half the price? There is lots of blame to go around.

Our target (I think) has to be more like the Germans: quality over quantity. This will require some investments in education and training but I don't see too many other options.

 

[Piece of Cake]

The current Canadian unemployment rate is 5.7%.  We have not seen a rate this low in almost 45 years. With all the jobs we have lost to developing and under-developed nations (lower paying jobs), we have gained in higher paying jobs.  It is sad that hard working Canadians and their families suffer when factories close and move, however there are provincial and federal programs to assist with re-training and income subsidization. These programs help those who have been affected to re-enter the labour force at a higher wage.

 

[pbi]

The current Canadian unemployment rate is 5.7%.  We have not seen a rate this low in almost 45 years. With all the jobs we have lost to developing and underdeveloped nations (lower paying jobs), we have gained in higher paying jobs.  It is sad that hard working Canadians and their families suffer when factories close and move, however there are provincial and federal programs to assist with retraining and income subsidization. These programs help those who have been affected to reenter the labour force at a higher wage.

Well that sounds good but I think the statistics might be somewhat blunt instruments.  First, I might ask, what sort of jobs? Jobs that can keep towns and cities alive and vibrant, with people buying homes and cars and stuff? Next, I might say "Higher paying jobs for whom?" The people who lost it all when the mill shut down? Or a select group in larger centres?
Then, I wouldn't say that it's "sad" that "..hard working Canadians and their families suffer when factories close and move..." I'd say it's a tragedy that has far reaching consequences from declining municipal tax bases to increased social problems to soaring rates of substance abuse, and not forgetting the political alienation of a whole class of otherwise solid people (the US equivalent of which which boosted Trump into power)

Finally, it is well to speak of helping these people through various government programs (and I do support them in principle) but all that great government largess has to be paid for by something. In my limited (and admittedly unschooled...) understanding, that thing is a solid, diverse economy which includes all Canadians, not just a few.

 

[Rifleman62]

pbi:

But, at the same time, are  we prepared to pay 100 bucks more for an item in order to keep our fellow Canadians in industrial jobs?

Not exactly industrial jobs, but think of all dairy and poultry products, Canadians already pay the extra.

 

[Piece of Cake]

Well that sounds good but I think the statistics might be somewhat blunt instruments.  First, I might ask, what sort of jobs? Jobs that can keep towns and cities alive and vibrant, with people buying homes and cars and stuff? Next, I might say "Higher paying jobs for whom?" The people who lost it all when the mill shut down? Or a select group in larger centres?
Then, I wouldn't say that it's "sad" that "..hard working Canadians and their families suffer when factories close and move..." I'd say it's a tragedy that has far reaching consequences from declining municipal tax bases to increased social problems to soaring rates of substance abuse, and not forgetting the political alienation of a whole class of otherwise solid people (the US equivalent of which which boosted Trump into power)

Finally, it is well to speak of helping these people through various government programs (and I do support them in principle) but all that great government largess has to be paid for by something. In my limited (and admittedly unschooled...) understanding, that thing is a solid, diverse economy which includes all Canadians, not just a few.

PBI you raise some interesting points.  I would like to point out that the majority of Canadians are better off now than 10, 20 or even 50 years ago.  I mentioned the unemployment rate in my last post.  I would also like to point out that home ownership has increased from 60.3 to 69.0 from 1971 until 2011. http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011/as-sa/99-014-x/2011002/c-g/c-g01-eng.cfm  Do we as a society have issues that we need to address? Sure.  Are we addressing such issues.  Yes. Will Canadian society continue to get better? Yes.  In fact, I would argue that there is a positive relationship between economic growth and social wellness. 

 

[jollyjacktar]

I think your home ownership is going to take a serious nosedive.  The new rules and outrageous home prices in numerous markets are going to close out many a new home buyer.  My co-workers whom are from Esquimalt have been discussing the present state there.  It doesn't look good.  And to add insult to injury, the vacancy rate is pretty well zero.  Even if you could afford the rent.

 

[AbdullahD]

I think your home ownership is going to take a serious nosedive.  The new rules and outrageous home prices in numerous markets are going to close out many a new home buyer.  My co-workers whom are from Esquimalt have been discussing the present state there.  It doesn't look good.  And to add insult to injury, the vacancy rate is pretty well zero.  Even if you could afford the rent.

With Toronto and the lower mainland real estate sales easing, potentially rising interest rates that could bankrupt a lot of over leveraged home owners.. I would not be surprised to see a nose dive in home ownership too and possibly a ripple effect to a pull back in the TSX due to less new construction, reits potentially under water, bankruptcies etc...

 

[ballz]

The same arguments about free trade ruing our standard of living are the same arguments used to assert that automation / technology are going to ruin our standard of living.

Both raise our standard of living.

The problem is, while it's easy to quantify the jobs lost due to free trade or automation, and they catch your eye and pull at your heartstrings, it's much harder to quantify the jobs gained from heightened consumer spending power and competitive industries who benefit from the lower cost of doing business now that they can get inputs for cheaper. This is because the numbers of job gains are spread out across various industries and occur over time as an adaptation to the new prevailing conditions.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

Yup.....McJobs

 

[PPCLI Guy]

But, at the same time, are  we prepared to pay 100 bucks more for an item in order to keep our fellow Canadians in industrial jobs? Or would we all rather go to Walmart or shop cross border and get it at half the price? There is lots of blame to go around.

For the win.  Much easier to blame "the government" or "free trade" than to own any of it ourselves.  How many union workers take Uber instead of a cab?  How any people "scoop" music, videos etc off the internet rather than pay the full price.  How many will pay contractors off the books to save some money?  How many industrial workers by finished products at Walmart?

It is, essentially, a closed system....and the system now reaches from Cornwall to China, from Trenton to India.

 

[ballz]

Yup.....McJobs

What, is everybody entitled to be a doctor now too? You're assertion is probably incorrect although I haven't seen any solid/convincing empirical data one way or another.

Anything Canada is competitive in, it is never on costs. Someone losing their job at Caterpillar is still a skilled person and those industries that remain competitive and are now more competitive require skilled labour and require more in order to take advantage of the new conditions. There will always be low-paying jobs, because we will always want low-skilled labour to cook us hamburgers. We'll have more of those too in an economy that is efficient, which is also a good thing.

I wish someone would have tracked those 3000 workers at Caterpillar and could report in 10 years "where they are now." I'd be wiling to be it's not McDonald's.

But you're probably right, I don't know why we don't just close up our borders completely and go at it alone, supply manage all commodities, the whole nine yards. I'm sure that would be great for our standard of living. I already love paying 300% of the market price for dairy and eggs.

 

[Eaglelord17]

I would argue the change in homeownership rates is more directly caused by the slacking off of the Mortgage requirements than anything else. Many people are barely affording their houses because of the lessened requirements and the large debt economy we now have (also why as mentioned they are tightening up the standards again). All it takes is the interest rate to go up one or two percent and many will be unable to afford their houses.

 

[Altair]

What, is everybody entitled to be a doctor now too? You're assertion is probably incorrect although I haven't seen any solid/convincing empirical data one way or another.

Anything Canada is competitive in, it is never on costs. Someone losing their job at Caterpillar is still a skilled person and those industries that remain competitive and are now more competitive require skilled labour and require more in order to take advantage of the new conditions. There will always be low-paying jobs, because we will always want low-skilled labour to cook us hamburgers. We'll have more of those too in an economy that is efficient, which is also a good thing.

I wish someone would have tracked those 3000 workers at Caterpillar and could report in 10 years "where they are now." I'd be wiling to be it's not McDonald's.

But you're probably right, I don't know why we don't just close up our borders completely and go at it alone, supply manage all commodities, the whole nine yards. I'm sure that would be great for our standard of living. I already love paying 300% of the market price for dairy and eggs.

Some people like taking a dump over new developments.

I'm sure these were the same arguments made when NAFTA came into effect and I think most can agree we are better off with NAFTA than without it.