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Politics in 2016

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A little bit from those other guys.

If 50 percent plus 1 one good enough to break up the county it's good enough for leader to stay on I suppose.

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/kelly-mcparland-mulcair-sets-the-ndp-leadership-bar-well-below-the-norm

Thomas Mulcair wants to stay on as leader of the NDP and says he won’t resign. He says it’s up to NDP members to decide his fate, as they will … sort of … at an automatic leadership review in April.

In striving to hang onto his job he’s presenting his party with a ticklish puzzle: Mulcair suggests that all he needs to keep hanging his coat in the leader’s office is a vote of 50%-plus-one at the review. That might seem awfully low: Cheri DiNovo, who isn’t even an MP but has made it her goal in life to get rid of Mulcair — say’s it’s “absurd.” But what’s the party to do? Official NDP policy holds that Quebec should be allowed to break up Canada on a vote of 50%-plus-one. Are DiNovo and her supporters going to argue the NDP rates a higher standard than the country they seek to govern?

The NDP leadership quandary is becoming must-see TV.

The NDP quandary is becoming must-see TV. In most cases a party that appeared to have a real chance of victory, only to plummet to third place in the latter stages of an election it had years to prepare for, would quickly jettison the boss. Whatever the excuses – and there are many legitimate ones – 2015 was the NDP’s best chance  of running Canada, and they fumbled it away. Fair or not, the buck stops with Mulcair. He took a second-place party and moved it to third. Been nice to know you.

Mulcair begs to differ. Facing the press Monday, he declared himself energized and ready to take up the cudgels once again. There was no more talk of balanced budgets or other namby-pamby middle-of-the-road proposals aimed at the moderate middle. The new Mulcair is devoted to good old left-wing anti-free-trade, and is dedicated to defeating its latest iteration, the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

He’s up against history. The Parti Quebecois’ Bernard Landry resigned after getting just 76% support in a leadership vote (he wanted 80%). Ralph Klein resigned after receiving a 55% vote of confidence. Joe Clark called a leadership convention after deciding 67% support wasn’t enough. Mulcair’s 50%-plus-one sets the NDP bar well below the minimum acceptable by any other party.

But, again, if the NDP is willing to give Quebec its independence at such a meager level of support, why should it expect different treatment? The party’s 2005 Sherbrooke declaration states that it would recognize a “majority decision (50 per cent +1) of Quebec people in the event of a referendum on the political status of Quebec.” Mulcair defended that position any number of times during the election, insisting it is “at the heart of (the NDP’s) approach with Quebecers.”

You sow the wind, you reap the whirlwind. Mulcair is now under fire from within, in particular from DiNovo, who is an NDP member of Ontario’s provincial government and has made herself a one-woman anti-Mulcair movement, dismissing the election “a disaster” and insisting Mulcair has “got to go.”

That’s not the way Mulcair sees it. “I’m also determined, very proud to lead this party, and I’m going to go before the membership without presuming anything … and ask for their support, and it has to be, of course, beyond 50 per cent,” he said Monday.

“I know that that support can be there. I sense it is there, but I’m not taking anything for granted.”

Mulcair is no fool. He realizes a leader who can command the respect of barely half his party is not likely to last long. He also knows he has no obvious rivals at the moment. By refusing to set a minimum level of support he leaves his options open and avoids handing malcontents like DiNovo a target.

A vote in the low 50s would almost certainly be the end of Mulcair. The NDP may be willing to break up the country at one vote over 50%, but there’s little chance they’d saddle themselves with a leader who can barely command the support of his own party.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
Another challenge for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau: "Quebec mayors opposed to Energy East pipeline, warn of environmental risk," says the headline in the Globe and Mail. Montreal Mayor (and Liberal heavyweight) Denis Coderre and mayors representing 82 municipalities with a total populations of about 3.9 million have come out formally and firmly against the Energy East pipeline proposal about which Prime Minister Trudeau's ministers have spoken favourably.

Oh ok, let's continue to send crude by train then  ;D
 
How many of those municipalities are affected by the route? I'm willing to bet not many.
 
Their opposition is based on how much infrastructure money flows their way.....enough $$, and they can live with it.

They can and will be bought.
 
PuckChaser said:
How many of those municipalities are affected by the route? I'm willing to bet not many.

Take a look at the national rail system and I am sure that you are wrong.  Just have a look at how many of those West/East routes converge in Montreal or pass through Levis/Quebec City.  Look at the numerous communities in Ontario that these lines pass through from the Manitoba border to North Bay.  The Prairies have pulled up many of their various smaller lines, leaving very few lines to transport oil, and they all pass through some major municipalities. 
 
George Wallace said:
Take a look at the national rail system and I am sure that you are wrong.  Just have a look at how many of those West/East routes converge in Montreal or pass through Levis/Quebec City.  Look at the numerous communities in Ontario that these lines pass through from the Manitoba border to North Bay.  The Prairies have pulled up many of their various smaller lines, leaving very few lines to transport oil, and they all pass through some major municipalities.

Good point if the argument is that in the absence of the pipeline all that oil will continue to be transported through Montreal (not so much Quebec - wrong side of the river) by rail, just like Lac Megantic.

Conversely if new pipelines were constructed they could bypass major urban concentrations and be built with containments.

Same situation on the Left Coast and across the US border.

Here are all the oil pipelines in North America.  It is noteworthy the number of existing border crossings.

image1new_0.jpg


Here are all the pipelines for all commodities

northAmPipelines.jpg


And here are the railroads

W7-1M-Figure-4-338x253.jpg


There are already a myriad points of leakage to defeat any particular policy obstruction.  And under current rules there is nothing to prevent Canada building a pipeline terminus a mile from the border and then shipping it by rail to another terminus built by the American's a mile inside their border to connect to their oil pipeline network.

And to complete the picture, here are the global oil tanker routes:

6858317.jpg


While apparently we can't ship from the West Coast or the East Coast because of the threat that tankers present, we are quite willing to have foreign tankers registered in Liberia deliver oil to Valero in Quebec, Suncor in Montreal and Irving in Saint John, not to mention Chevron's refinery in Burnaby. 

Canadian%20Refining%20Sites%20and%20Capacity%20(Oct22-2015)Final-EN.jpg


And we can't do a thing about the stream of tankers moving down our West Coast to deliver international oil by the Great Circle Route to the US West Coast - starting in Seattle.

data=RfCSdfNZ0LFPrHSm0ublXdzhdrDFhtmHhN1u-gM,hSC_SMj0LphEGSwE2vXjTVFAo4iwV1H7hxHZkYi1GDopXKMqBtiyFJPTqL38_3mLHRGPZLx9FaGcqflxQPj2FwpxHr8JYV4BZ5kePdIhCDF6F8WurVlmojB-EqATqO4gFuTYH3rVV1Zkt3MQxpz3rLQLDvMDZYovubE33IUeWgz_aZTKQNAag4SnRDw4hhzDf5bmbG-YiHdXCig9F29_Ti8-1BLoRrQPLut59SbkUcxxKoC1idYwga7Bjz2eiXSm4pM1GRJnvAThV0bftQLBAkQf1wgccXaxFhacnZy0a0999p2or1iK8I79g5fi01ENMVeCFBk2YtbOFmnDBV9XZxKDQS44pzUfjO7FoyREMST8MVQ3DsN2ndGr9LaZ_lwuYEOd_5Brt89SIsHz8cXfSL8ALMMEu4ksqvSZwlw_oQ2NWi6lKn_3WhKE-6u6pWtb4pNdLLY5u7rswkeQbblDRj4iwelm6wo9_0b0K_iWOuJiNLtbpOfRBxftve7ovKMOKXZMJ9YM7aiBRq2ZdkmfoN-XsvxdDrpje95dbP99Yv6ZI07N4KsGaMJlaogaStiSb9_w8RCRPnb-FcZy0PAxRorH2DtQC3kA42oxkkhFFH_58QI-F3NAPo4hgou6fKqz9yoOkrDtJgjMGNIu9zSxm48izm7EqE1bxsRHoLwdfi0RvRM0rEgl2_JvjNSsvw93AjXlEq1xPE3D37lltOrw0Yh0nSKFlkaJBttObDus_u0ORLup_FEeEE1G6Gz_JiGSulpC717vgYZ1EtTcr37tlue_cxZh1JOr


As GAP says: money.  To which I would add : jobs.  The environment be blowed.

If Trudeau wants to make a splash he would buy Christie a pair of Refineries at tide water, one at Prince Rupert and one in Port Hardy, and a fleet of Coast Guard vessels (built in Vancouver) to create the undefined and undefinable "World Class" environmental response that she uses to beat every proposal into the ground.

A pox on all their houses.  >:D
 
It appears the anti-oil crowd has been successful once again. Can't go west, can't go east, can't go south. Churchill seems like a logical spot to me. Of course the FN bands across the top of Sask and MB will have something to say about the matter.
 
Maybe its time for the oil companies to talk turkey with the NIMBY's.

I have heard estimates that isolating our oil from foreign markets could be costing a maximum of $2 billion/day in lost revenues (i.e. not being able to sell at the higher prices on the global market), although this was at there time oil was at it's $100/bbl height. If it was $2 billion/day, then we are talking a yearly amount of new wealth equal to the national debt.

Whatever the number, it is considerable, and Canadians should be told in no uncertain terms that preventing oil extraction and export costs the Canadian economy "x". For Canadians who are expecting government services or handouts, there is "x" less revenue to draw on. For investors looking to create new jobs and wealth, there is "x" less available in the investment pool. For governments addicted to overspending, there is "x" less taxable income.

This is the sort of issue that a Kevin O'Leary can expound on, because the current political class isn't capable.
 
George Wallace said:
Take a look at the national rail system and I am sure that you are wrong.  Just have a look at how many of those West/East routes converge in Montreal or pass through Levis/Quebec City.  Look at the numerous communities in Ontario that these lines pass through from the Manitoba border to North Bay.  The Prairies have pulled up many of their various smaller lines, leaving very few lines to transport oil, and they all pass through some major municipalities.

I meant more of the pipeline, George. I know rail would move through a lot of their cities, and if they were given those 2 COAs, they'd pick pipeline everyday of the week.
 
Humphrey Bogart said:
Oh ok, let's continue to send crude by train then  ;D
PuckChaser said:
How many of those municipalities are affected by the route? I'm willing to bet not many.
Funny you should mention that.  It would be interesting to see how much wage and tax revenue said communities get from, oh, I don't know, railways & associated businesses.  And what would happen to said $ if a pipeline went in, reducing traffic to said railways.

PuckChaser said:
I meant more of the pipeline, George. I know rail would move through a lot of their cities, and if they were given those 2 COAs, they'd pick pipeline everyday of the week.
Unless it would mean fewer net jobs in the places in question?

Just throwing another motivating factor into the mix ...
 
milnews.ca said:
Funny you should mention that.  It would be interesting to see how much wage and tax revenue said communities get from, oh, I don't know, railways & associated businesses.  And what would happen to said $ if a pipeline went in, reducing traffic to said railways.
Unless it would mean fewer net jobs in the places in question?

Just throwing another motivating factor into the mix ...

Now there's a curious thought worth investigating.
 
One big flaming derailment near/in a metropolitan  area and the "pipelines are evil" mantra may subside somewhat.

I am truly surprised, given Lac Megantic...
 
Good2Golf said:
One big flaming derailment near/in a metropolitan  area and the "pipelines are evil" mantra may subside somewhat.

I am truly surprised, given Lac Megantic...
And have we heard any significant calls from Lac Megantic (community or community leaders) to get rid of the railway?  Not to improve how the train works, but to get rid of the tracks and corporate presence?  I stand corrected:  a municipal official has said (anonymously) the mayor wants a bypass around the town core(Thanks George W. for that)

After all, there's still pesticide plants in India after this.
 
milnews.ca said:
Funny you should mention that.  It would be interesting to see how much wage and tax revenue said communities get from, oh, I don't know, railways & associated businesses.  And what would happen to said $ if a pipeline went in, reducing traffic to said railways.
Unless it would mean fewer net jobs in the places in question?

Just throwing another motivating factor into the mix ...

I think that would depend on whether the pipeline capacity is there to remove reliance on rail and move more oil, faster and cheaper, or if there will be more oil pushed on rail as production ramps up.
 
milnews.ca said:
And have we heard any significant calls from Lac Megantic (community or community leaders) to get rid of the railway?  Not to improve how the train works, but to get rid of the tracks and corporate presence?
:crickets:

Yes.  They have demanded that the tracks be removed from the town and moved elsewhere.
 
Good2Golf said:
One big flaming derailment near/in a metropolitan  area and the "pipelines are evil" mantra may subside somewhat.

I am truly surprised, given Lac Megantic...

A little fun with numbers based on this article.

Quebec wants to generate more revenue by selling more electricity into the States.  They are asking the Yanks to pony up for a new 1090 MW transmission line.

A 1090 MW transmission line would require something like 1000 wind turbines of 4 MW capacity each to match the proposed hydro plant - and it wouldn't be as regular.

According to this Financial Post article of Nov 2014 Quebec sells that electricity for about 3 cents per kWh.  It was producing it for about 6 cents per kWh from hydro sources. 

In other words it was generating foreign revenue but taxing its citizens to make that foreign money. 

Wind energy was even worse. It was costing about 12.5 cents per kWh to produce it.

The reason for the the low selling price?  Shale oil.  And that was when oil was at $100 per barrel.

Now, at $30 per barrel?

A barrel of oil contains roughly 6 GJ of energy.  At $30 per barrel that is $5 per GJ.

One GJ is equivalent to 277 kWh.

So, at $5 per GJ and 277 kWh per GJ, oil is currently selling at 1.2 1.8 cents per kWH.

Oil selling at 1.2 1.8 cents per kWh.
Electricity selling at 3 cents per kWh.
Hydro electricity costing 6 cents per kWh to generate to make 3 cents.
Wind electricity costing 12.5 cents per kWh to generate to make 3 cents.

Bugger the principles.  It is, as always, about the dollar.

Quebec is treating Alberta exactly the same way it treated Newfoundland.  It doesn't want the competition.

And neither does Ontario - who also exports taxpayer subsidized electricity.

Edit: Maths error corrected.
 
Chris Pook said:
And neither does Ontario - who also exports taxpayer subsidized electricity.

Ah! Yes.  Ontario.  Exports electricity at a low rate of return and then turns around and imports it at a high rate.  Brilliant economists in Ontario.
 
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