PMJT: The First 100 Days

[The Bread Guy]

And stand by for an update later this afternoon ....

The Honourable Ralph Goodale, Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness, and officials will provide context about Canada’s current threat environment.

Date
Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Time
3:00 p.m. EST

Location

Public Safety Canada
19th Floor Ministerial Boardroom
269 Laurier Avenue West
Ottawa, Ontario ....

 

[Colin Parkinson]

and that would be "dual calibre" magazines

 

[Tuan]

In spite of Paris, Justin Trudeau keeps terror in perspective: Walkom
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/11/18/in-spite-of-paris-justin-trudeau-keeps-terror-in-perspective-walkom.html

When terrorists struck Paris Friday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s response was strikingly low-key.
While other world leaders vied with one another to voice their outrage, Trudeau waited a few hours before offering a somewhat anodyne expression of grief.
He also acknowledged — again strikingly for a politician — that he couldn’t say much more because he didn’t know much more.
When he arrived in Turkey for a meeting of the G20 nations later that night he didn’t immediately head for the microphones to get in on the biggest news story of the moment.
Indeed, when he did eventually surface publicly at the two-day conference on the economy, he talked — surprisingly enough — about the economy.
Tuesday, on his way to yet another conference on the economy (this time in the Philippines) he was asked whether the Paris attacks would make him rethink his ambitious plan to bring 25,000 Syrian refugees to Canada by year’s end.
He said no.
Asked whether the attacks would make him rethink his pledge to pull Canadian jets out of the bombing war against Islamic State militants, he said no again.
None of this means that Trudeau’s Liberal government won’t up the ante militarily in the war against the Islamic State, sometimes known as ISIS.
Indeed, on Tuesday, the prime minister confirmed that he plans to send more Canadian ground troops into Iraq to help “train” Kurdish forces fighting ISIS.
This is probably a bad idea since, as Canada has found already, “trainers” can quickly become enmeshed in combat.
But a promise to keep ground forces in Iraq was part of the platform that the Liberals were elected on.
And I will give Trudeau this: He hasn’t allowed the latest crisis to derail him from this platform.
Just about everyone is giving the new prime minister advice.
Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall has advised him to delay his refugee resettlement plans. Interim Conservative Leader Rona Ambrose is advising him to keep Canadian fighter planes in the Middle East.
Conservative MP Jason Kenney, a former immigration minister, is advising Trudeau to behave more like Jason Kenney.
Columnists like me offer all kinds of opinions on where he should go and what he should do.
But so far at least, Trudeau has politely dismissed this unsolicited advice. He gives that funny little half-grin and says he plans to do what he was elected to do.
In the wake of Friday’s outrage, France plans to pass a law that will allow the government to strip dual nationals convicted of terrorism of their French citizenship.
Meanwhile, Trudeau’s government is promising to repeal a near-identical Canadian law, arguing that it creates two classes of citizens.
France plans to expand its anti-terror laws. French President François Hollande is calling for a change in the country’s constitution in order to make the job of his security services easier.
By contrast, Trudeau’s Liberals have promised to scale back Canada’s anti-terror laws. Among other things, they would delete a section that allows the security services — with judicial approval — to override the constitution’s charter of rights and freedoms.
Granted it’s easier for Trudeau to take a more moderate approach to terror. It wasn’t his country that was hit Friday.
Still, it is refreshing to see that the new prime minister hasn’t been thrown off course by the terrible events in Paris.
Terrorism is not a new phenomenon. As Trudeau once said, to much mockery, it has root causes which must be addressed.
Those who would combat terrorism must also make sure that their actions don’t make matters worse—a lesson that former U.S. president George W. Bush forgot when he invaded Afghanistan and Iraq.
Most of all, the struggle against terror requires keeping things in perspective. In France, car accidents still kill far more people than terrorists ever have. In Canada, as the Star has reported, 40,000 people a year are killed by poverty.
On Wednesday and Thursday in Manila, Trudeau and other Pacific Rim leaders are supposed to talk about building a better world through “inclusive economies”. Let’s hope they do. Let’s hope they don’t just focus on the war against terror.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Meanwhile, "no need to crank up the threat level" from the Public Safety Minister ....

At a press conference in Ottawa Wednesday, Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Ralph Goodale said, "Based on what we know now, there is no rationale for changing Canada's current threat level."

 

[Brad Sallows]

>"So first of all, excellent first experience at my first summit"?

I saw a movie about someone's excellent adventure once.  Good to know he is enjoying himself.

 

[Scott]

And if he started a speech off with, "Good morning" someone would have at him for being a presumptuous dickhead too self absorbed to think of how anyone else's morning was going.

Le sigh.

 

[The Bread Guy]

And if he started a speech off with, "Good morning" someone would have at him for being a presumptuous dickhead too self absorbed to think of how anyone else's morning was going.

Le sigh.

:nod:

Meanwhile, PMJT appoints an interesting "caucus sergeant major" ....

The Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, announced today that Andrew Leslie, Member of Parliament for Orléans, has agreed to serve as Chief Government Whip.

Mr. Leslie was first elected in the Orléans riding in 2015. As a retired Lieutenant-General, Mr. Leslie has a strong background in public service. His dedicated service has been recognized both domestically and internationally on numerous occasions during his 35-year career with the Canadian Armed Forces.

Quote

“I have every confidence in the remarkable abilities of retired Lieutenant-General Andrew Leslie. He will ensure that our members in Parliament are in the right places at the right time, and ensure that we remain focused on implementing our plan for a positive, ambitious, open, and transparent government. I am thrilled that he is a part of our strong team committed to returning a voice to Canadians in Ottawa.”
- Rt. Hon. Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada

Quick Fact

    Each recognized party in the Parliament of Canada has a Whip. The Whips ensure that enough party members are in the Chamber for debates and votes. They also determine which committees a party member will sit on, assign offices and seats in the House, and encourage members to follow party commitments.

 

[ModlrMike]

Is the honeymoon over already?


Trudeau loses his post-election shine after Paris attacks: Hébert
Unscripted response of rookie prime minister garners his worst week in the press since before campaign

More here

 

[The Bread Guy]

Is the honeymoon over already?


Trudeau loses his post-election shine after Paris attacks: Hébert
Unscripted response of rookie prime minister garners his worst week in the press since before campaign

More here

And THAT from a usually Red Team paper - interesting, indeed.

 

[Journeyman]

.....garners his worst week in the press .....

That was his worst week?! Must be hellish.  :'(  I saw no change, just more "rock star welcome; love his hair" that is passing as 'journalism.'

 

[The Bread Guy]

That was his worst week?! Must be hellish.  :'(  I saw no change, just more "rock star welcome; love his hair" that is passing as 'journalism.'

C'mon - if you have one week that sucks out of two as PM, that can still be your "worst" week  ;D

 

[Colin Parkinson]

And THAT from a usually Red Team paper - interesting, indeed.

To be fair she is generally the most rational reporter on the left. I will always read her stuff, even if I disagree with it, because it's based on rational thinking.

 

[The Bread Guy]

A couple of updates ....

• New "Update of Economic and Fiscal Projections 2015" is out
• New Conservative shadow cabinet out -- highlights:  James Bezan (Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman) as defence critic, Alupa Clarke (Beauport–Limoilou) as VAC critic, Hon. Steven Blaney (Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis) as PWGSC/procurement critic, Hon. Erin O’Toole (Durham) as public safety critic

 

[Brad Sallows]

>And if he started a speech off with, "Good morning" someone would have at him for being a presumptuous fool too self absorbed to think of how anyone else's morning was going.
Le sigh.

Don't worry; you'll have years to get used to it.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Barrie McKenna, writing in the this column, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, says that we are going "back to the future" with the most recent budget update:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economic-insight/liberals-opt-for-the-conservatives-opaque-tack-with-budget-update/article27411179/

Liberals opt for the Conservatives’ opaque tack with budget update

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Barrie McKenna
OTTAWA — The Globe and Mail

Published Friday, Nov. 20, 2015

A mere seven months ago, the federal government was looking at a bright future of ever-expanding budget surpluses.

No longer – thanks to a worsening global economic outlook, the unexpectedly prolonged oil price slump and a bit of accounting spin.

Not only is the surplus gone, Ottawa will spend the next four years in the red, according to the new Liberal government’s more sobering assessment of the books, contained in a fiscal update released Friday by the Finance Department.

The $1.4-billion surplus predicted by the Conservatives for the current fiscal year: poof, gone. It’s now a $3-billion hole. The same goes for next year’s $1.7-billion surplus. It’s now a nearly $4-billion shortfall, and so on. And that’s before tallying up the cost of the Liberals’ numerous election promises, which include roughly $5-billion a year worth of additional infrastructure spending.

Just as the old government massaged the presentation of its financial condition to demonstrate what a remarkable economic steward it was, the new government is resetting the baseline to give itself maximum political flexibility as it looks to its first budget in 2016.

“We’ve given a starting point for Canadians,” Finance Minister Bill Morneau told reporters in Ottawa.

Maybe so. But it isn’t a promising beginning for a government that ran on a platform of openness and transparency in government.

The Liberal government’s new starting point is starkly different from the old starting point – and not just because the economic outlook has worsened.

So, were the Conservatives too optimistic about the state of government finances as they prepared for an election they wanted to be all about their economic record?

Mr. Morneau refused to take the bait, preferring to stick with the government’s “sunny ways” mantra.

“I think you’ve heard us through the course of the campaign try to find a way to be positive and to deliver to Canadians a sense of change in how we’re going to comport ourselves politically,” he said. “I’d really rather not opine on how [the Conservative government] got those numbers [in the April budget].”

Of course, the last budget was partly a work of fiction. To show surplus, the Conservatives used a series of accounting manoeuvres, including shrinking the size of a contingency for unforeseen events by $2-billion a year, putting a rosy spin on future oil prices, booking savings from planned changes to civil service sick-pay rules and keeping Employment Insurance premiums higher than necessary to meet payouts.

The fiscal update, released Friday, reinstates the contingency reserve by “adjusting downward” how fast economists expect the economy to grow. In essence, the Finance Department is discounting the consensus of private-sector forecasts so that it won’t be taken by surprise if oil prices don’t bounce back or if the global economy worsens.

In 2016-17, for example, $3-billion out of the nearly $7-billion swing from a Conservative surplus to a Liberal deficit is due to this “adjustment,” according to the fiscal update. In the current fiscal year, roughly 20 per cent of swing is due to the adjustment rather than the more negative forecasts.

This may well be the prudent thing to do. It may even present a more accurate picture of the government’s finances in a world of economic uncertainties. And it’s been a long-standing government practice, or at least it was until the April budget.

But how would the average Canadian know?

The same Finance Department that put out the April budget also produced Friday’s update.

Mr. Morneau insisted that the reinstatement of an economic cushion to deal with the unexpected is “not a political choice.”

“It’s a decision that we made together because … we have an economy that is weaker than before,” he said, speaking in French. “It’s prudent to have a level of [economic growth] for planning that is lower than before.”

The pattern set by previous governments does not inspire confidence. Increasingly, budgets have become political manifestos, rather than unfiltered portrayals of financial conditions. For several years, the Conservative even removed the word “budget” from the annual document, before reinstating it in 2015.

Predicting much larger deficits is politically astute. It allows the Liberals to show they inherited a much worse situation than anticipated. It also gives them wiggle room to backtrack on their promises, if necessary, but also to claim ownership for improving financial conditions if the economy perks up.

But it’s not yet clear they’re being any more transparent than the Conservatives.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minister Bill Morneau may be bright and shiny and new and full of hope for change, but the Liberal Party of Canada remains, firmly, in the hands of the seasoned professionals:

                   

Even the "new guard has deep ties to the old:

                   

                    New Liberal Party president Anna Gainey (left) is married to Tom Pitfield (right)
                    son of Prime Minister Pierre Trudeaus' closest policy advisor Michael Pitfield.

Plus ça change, and all that ...

 

[Edward Campbell]

A couple of weeks ago, on p.1 of this thread, I speculated that global climate change might be a, perhaps even the "top of mind" issue for the first 100 days.

Jason Fetke, writing in the Ottawa Citizen says that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau "faces big challenges in climate change fight."

Specifically, Mr Fetke says, "there’s a palpable sense of urgency among environmentalists ... to come away with an ambitious, yet realistic, climate change treaty that is legally binding." Let's remember that those environmentalists are an important part of the Liberal base to which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau must "pander," just like Prime Minister Harper before him did to his own Conservative base.

The Citizen article is loaded with pictures and charts, including one that shows the sources of Canada's greenhouse gas emissions:

         

The problem is that the chart ~ accurate though it may be ~ fails to identify the scope of the global problem which is about 50 time larger:

         

And Canada has, actually, been making some "progress," relative to e.g. China and India and Indonesia and South Korea, and, even, relative to the USA, UK and Germany.

         

Now the "progress," which is, actually, just a decline in the rate of growth is not enough for the environmental movement, but they actually need China and india, especially, to go from ...

 

                                                                          This                                                                                                  back to                                                                                  this ...

    ... not only is that a practical, geopolitical impossibility, it is morally reprehensible to even ask people who have just gained a foothold in the modern world to give it up because we, in the US led West, sold them the wrong technologies.

There is a lot that can be done to conserve energy, use "greener" systems and so on, but the world will still need all the fossil fuel Canada can bring to market. The part of the Liberal base that wants, for example, to shut down the Alberta oil sands ...

         

          Protesters outisde 24 Sussex Dr. and Rideau Gate in early November demand a freeze on oilsands expansion. Wayne Cuddington/ Ottawa Citizen
          WAYNE CUDDINGTON / OTTAWA CITIZEN (Picture from Jason Fetke's article)

              ... are a big part of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's problem. He sold them hope for change; now that want some.

 

[dapaterson]

Prior to the dissolution of parliament, forty-nine people were re-appointed to patronage positions - many of them years in the future.  In other words, PM Harper made appointments that take effect in the future, well beyond his government's mandate.  This is unprecedented in Canada.

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/11/23/doomed-harper-government-made-49-future-patronage-appointments/

 

[Altair]

Prior to the dissolution of parliament, forty-nine people were re-appointed to patronage positions - many of them years in the future.  In other words, PM Harper made appointments that take effect in the future, well beyond his government's mandate.  This is unprecedented in Canada.

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/11/23/doomed-harper-government-made-49-future-patronage-appointments/

At least he didn't stack the Senate and tell the new senators to block every liberal bill for 4 years.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Prior to the dissolution of parliament, forty-nine people were re-appointed to patronage positions - many of them years in the future.  In other words, PM Harper made appointments that take effect in the future, well beyond his government's mandate.  This is unprecedented in Canada.

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/11/23/doomed-harper-government-made-49-future-patronage-appointments/

Such contempt is beyond the pale - and, I suspect, the primary reason for the ABC vote.

We now return to the previously scheduled virulent and vituperative bashing of the Prime Minister.

 

[Kirkhill]

Such contempt is beyond the pale - and, I suspect, the primary reason for the ABC vote.

We now return to the previously scheduled virulent and vituperative bashing of the Prime Minister.

After the short digression to return to the virulent and vituperative bashing of the previous Prime Minister.  [

Come on! Both sides. Let up on it a bit.

As ERC says: let him act and then judge him on his actions.