OldSolduer
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I concur - Russia would automatically assume Canadians are in the pocket of the USA.
Op UNIFIER - CAF and the Ukraine Crisis
- Thread starter The Bread Guy
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We're now too small to fit in their pocket, we'd be lost in there, never to be found.
McG
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It has been discussed elsewhere in this thread, UNIFIER is a small, mostly unarmed mission. They are not a speed bump of an sort.
RangerRay
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Never mind that Moscow already views us suspiciously with our huge and influential Ukrainian diaspora.
daftandbarmy
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BLUF: It's complicated....
Why Russia deployed more troops at Ukraine's border
Is the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border threatening to escalate? What the Russian leadership is thinking and how the West should react
Russia has deployed around 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine. Why is the Kremlin doing that? Part of the answer is certainly that Russia wants to keeping us guessing – against the backdrop of a solid threat. Moscow itself, however, has by no means decided on its next steps. We are seeing a classic pattern of foreign policy by current Russian leadership: they prepare several options for action and then see what works. How things actually proceed depends crucially on the Western reaction and attitude – and on how clearly it is communicated.
Is the Kremlin playing Hazard? To a certain extent, of course. The stakes are high. But in the end, even in Moscow, realpolitik rules, regardless of whether it is different from ours. The leadership doesn’t want to risk two things: a far-reaching military conflict with hardly foreseeable consequences, and Russia’s own power at home.
The possibility that Russia is prepared to attack Ukraine in the hope of a limited confrontation cannot be ruled out. Of course, it will not simply attack. Perhaps it ‘will have no choice but to come to the aid of oppressed compatriots in the neighbouring country’. But to achieve that, one can first raise tensions in the neighbouring country and then draw new red lines.
Russia’s motives
There is probably a mix of motives behind the Russian decision to move so much military power to the border with Ukraine....
Why Russia deployed more troops at Ukraine's border?
Why Russia deployed more troops at Ukraine's border
Is the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border threatening to escalate? What the Russian leadership is thinking and how the West should react
Russia has deployed around 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine. Why is the Kremlin doing that? Part of the answer is certainly that Russia wants to keeping us guessing – against the backdrop of a solid threat. Moscow itself, however, has by no means decided on its next steps. We are seeing a classic pattern of foreign policy by current Russian leadership: they prepare several options for action and then see what works. How things actually proceed depends crucially on the Western reaction and attitude – and on how clearly it is communicated.
Is the Kremlin playing Hazard? To a certain extent, of course. The stakes are high. But in the end, even in Moscow, realpolitik rules, regardless of whether it is different from ours. The leadership doesn’t want to risk two things: a far-reaching military conflict with hardly foreseeable consequences, and Russia’s own power at home.
The possibility that Russia is prepared to attack Ukraine in the hope of a limited confrontation cannot be ruled out. Of course, it will not simply attack. Perhaps it ‘will have no choice but to come to the aid of oppressed compatriots in the neighbouring country’. But to achieve that, one can first raise tensions in the neighbouring country and then draw new red lines.
Russia’s motives
There is probably a mix of motives behind the Russian decision to move so much military power to the border with Ukraine....
Why Russia deployed more troops at Ukraine's border?
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Pocket lint?
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Nose hair?
The only real deterrence in the area to keep Russia out would be the deployment of Nuclear Weapons along their borders with the order to use if they cross the border. Or 500,000- 100,000,000 well equipped, motivated trained troops along the border with orders to repel any Russian incursion by any and all conventional means.
Russia has far superior forces within spitting distance of their border then we do.
They have better Electronic warfare capability then we do. They still run a majority old style manual equipment where we replaced our main forces with electronic ran equipment, all the shielding in the world does not help much under a steady EMP. Half the time it doesn't work on its own.
We can lay mines, dig ditches etc, they have more Engineer assets that work then we do. They have been ramping that assets up over the past few years.
They outgun us in All types of Artillery, they out tank us based on numbers, they out Air Defense us with ground radar and missiles, Despite our guys taking tank after tank out during the Gulf War Russia has a bit more training, bit more ability and bit more pride then the Iraqi Military.
They have cluster bombs in stock issued, they have MLRS both dumb and smart in use and effective and willing to use these.
They are willing to use any and all equipment daily except Nuclear/Biological/Chemical at this point and may use any combination of the three if pushed. Are we?
We simply do not have the equipment or manpower to engage with Russia on any level then small skirmishes. If we think we do we are kidding ourselves.
Any significant build up of Forces along the Border on our part would certainly be a escalation of force and may trigger a more negative response.
Hopefully our defence budget swells and we can buy the equipment we need and want, justify the spending for defence of Europe.
Russia has far superior forces within spitting distance of their border then we do.
They have better Electronic warfare capability then we do. They still run a majority old style manual equipment where we replaced our main forces with electronic ran equipment, all the shielding in the world does not help much under a steady EMP. Half the time it doesn't work on its own.
We can lay mines, dig ditches etc, they have more Engineer assets that work then we do. They have been ramping that assets up over the past few years.
They outgun us in All types of Artillery, they out tank us based on numbers, they out Air Defense us with ground radar and missiles, Despite our guys taking tank after tank out during the Gulf War Russia has a bit more training, bit more ability and bit more pride then the Iraqi Military.
They have cluster bombs in stock issued, they have MLRS both dumb and smart in use and effective and willing to use these.
They are willing to use any and all equipment daily except Nuclear/Biological/Chemical at this point and may use any combination of the three if pushed. Are we?
We simply do not have the equipment or manpower to engage with Russia on any level then small skirmishes. If we think we do we are kidding ourselves.
Any significant build up of Forces along the Border on our part would certainly be a escalation of force and may trigger a more negative response.
Hopefully our defence budget swells and we can buy the equipment we need and want, justify the spending for defence of Europe.
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I can picture it now, a multinational peacekeeping force of Canadians and Belorussians
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And I know which side would be pulling out the baseball bats to 'steal' supplies.....I can picture it now, a multinational peacekeeping force of Canadians and Belorussians
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They're only an "incidental" speed bump/trip wire at most - something a government could wield as an excuse if anything happened to them because of Russian actions (think what would happen if the same number of Russians got hurt in some organized action/violence in Ukraine or the Baltics). But only a sliver of speed-bump-edness at most ...
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If some Americans got killed by Russians in the Ukraine - the government couldn't do much but react heavily - the public is already ready to lynch Sleepy Joe - and the same goes on both side of the aisle since Afghanistan.
McG
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The eFP in the baltics has a mandate to fight. If Russia invades the Baltics, then the eFP will go into the fight and Canadian casalties will be inevitable. That is a trip wire.
If UNIFIER does not have a mandate to fight, then the population of Canadian tourists in Ukraine is more of a trip wire than the CAF mission.
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Except for the RCN, they're naval lint...
daftandbarmy
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If this is true: "Nothing for ya right now, but once you fix bayonets, we should have something to help you out."
Altair
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mind numbingly dumb.
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If entirely true, yup.
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Should be providing as many anti-air and anti-tank missiles and systems as Ukraine wants. And probably 100 F16-V block 70's
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