November 2015: Paris Bataclan attack/hostage taking

[ModlrMike]

Of course its not the refugees, the problem is that its hard to tell between the legit ones and the ones mixed in by ISIS. Therefore in my opinion we can't take the chance.

While one example does not prove the rule, this story should give us pause.

Assailant in Paris Attacks had Syrian Passport

 

[Tuan]

Much sabre rattling will be done by the west.  Motions condemning ISIS will be passed in parliaments and legislatures.  Resolutions will be tabled at the United Nations.

Soon, there will be peace marches and solidarity rallies in France and around the world (and we should pray that the fanatics don't target those).

None of this matters to ISIS. Their brand of fanaticism is pure, their devotion to that twisted interpretation of Islam is absolute.  Their vision, mission and goals are clear.  Kill the non-believer wherever he may be.  Cleanse the world of the kuffar and embrace the true Islam - or die. They are barbaric, horrific, cruel and terrifyingly successful to date.  Resurrecting medieval executions (burning, beheading etc.) was a masterstroke which served to shock the west into horror.  That horror will only be magnified once a western soldier (Five Eyes) is captured and put to death, surely in a most shocking, dramatic and public manner. 

Their manipulation of the media is absolute.  Just watch the talking heads on CNN who began braying last night that ISIS cannot and will not be defeated.  Heck, I was ready to buy my daughter a burkha!  Their use of mainstream and social media to push their agenda of subservience through horror has shocked the west into going far beyond reasonableness to not offend even secular Muslims or be seen to be fighting against Islam.

The French president has promised a "pitiless war".  Some here have called for the invocation of Article V of the NATO charter.  Neither, in my opinion, will happen in a meaningful way which leads to a strategic and political victory over ISIS.  The west lacks the stomach for such a fight.

Agree everything you said, except the last line. The west doesn't lack the stomach for such a fight but unlike ISIS, the west remains humane.

 

[The Bread Guy]

While one example does not prove the rule, this story should give us pause.

Assailant in Paris Attacks had Syrian Passport

Another thing worrying folks, as expressed by several commentators over the last day or so:  our security folks have to get lucky every day, the bad guys only once.  It's all in how we balance the risk/possibilities.

 

[Stoker]

It seems to me that ISIS has used may forms of unconventional warfare, recruiting through social media and so forth. If I were a leader of ISIS, I certainly would be sending fighters in the mob of refugees streaming into Europe to cause mayhem. There are many French, German etc radicalized ISIS members that were sent back to their home countries no doubt to help coordinate attacks as they have intimate knowledge of the area.

 

[Stoker]

We can prioritize women and children, and full families travelling together. You're never going to reduce the chance to 0, but by looking for indicators, we can still help these people out and keep us safe.

That's a start and should be considered into the planning stage. There are lots of orphaned childeren we could take in as well, low risk.

 

[Jarnhamar]

My biggest worry is these attacks were launched by some fake "refugees" and we begin to put limits on genuine ones.

My biggest worry is one of the refugee's we take in is really an ISIS agent and slips out and kills my kids in their school.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Much sabre rattling will be done by the west.  Motions condemning ISIS will be passed in parliaments and legislatures.  Resolutions will be tabled at the United Nations.

Soon, there will be peace marches and solidarity rallies in France and around the world (and we should pray that the fanatics don't target those).

None of this matters to ISIS. Their brand of fanaticism is pure, their devotion to that twisted interpretation of Islam is absolute.  Their vision, mission and goals are clear.  Kill the non-believer wherever he may be.  Cleanse the world of the kuffar and embrace the true Islam - or die. They are barbaric, horrific, cruel and terrifyingly successful to date.  Resurrecting medieval executions (burning, beheading etc.) was a masterstroke which served to shock the west into horror.  That horror will only be magnified once a western soldier (Five Eyes) is captured and put to death, surely in a most shocking, dramatic and public manner. 

Their manipulation of the media is absolute.  Just watch the talking heads on CNN who began braying last night that ISIS cannot and will not be defeated.  Heck, I was ready to buy my daughter a burkha!  Their use of mainstream and social media to push their agenda of subservience through horror has shocked the west into going far beyond reasonableness to not offend even secular Muslims or be seen to be fighting against Islam.

The French president has promised a "pitiless war".  Some here have called for the invocation of Article V of the NATO charter.  Neither, in my opinion, will happen in a meaningful way which leads to a strategic and political victory over ISIS.  The west lacks the stomach for such a fight.

If we, the US led West (supported by China) are unwilling to do this ...

   

    Boots and tracks on the ground
          ... with several armoured and infantry divisions and, indeed, the whole panoply of modern war, leading to this ...

             

              Punitive attacks on enemy held towns and cities
                    ... followed by rather a lot of this ...

                       

                        Public (exemplary) executions of enemy leaders
                        'pour encourager les autres'
                              ... and then, this ...

                                 

                                  A speedy withdrawal, leaving the locals to cleanup and rebuild as they wish

Then ...

          ... we need to do this:

   

    A "wall" ~ physical in many places, on what amounts to being on a regional
    basis, separating "them" from "us" until "they" sort themselves out

          ... because this doesn't work:

             

 

[Edward Campbell]

While one example does not prove the rule, this story should give us pause.

Assailant in Paris Attacks had Syrian Passport

The "usual suspects" are making much of that in some places:

   

 

[Haggis]

Agree everything you said, except the last line. The west doesn't lack the stomach for such a fight but unlike ISIS, the west remains humane.

Two points for you:

1.  War, in any form, is not humane.  If you believe we can fight a humane war against any foe, you need to give your head a shake.

2. You misunderstand me when I refer to "stomach".  Look back to Gulf War 1.0.  The US-led coalition was well on it's way to Bagdad and would have made it had it not been for the images of kilometers of destroyed Iraqi vehicles lined up on the highway out of Basra.  Those graphic and repeatedly broadcast images were said to have turned US public opinion against the war, resulting in Bush Sr halting the advance on Bagdad.  (One can postulate on how many American and coalition lives could have been saved by finishing off Saddam's regime then rather than later in Gulf War 2.0?). 

The ISIS media arm can and will spin any attack against it for maximum political damage on the attackers at home.  The US media are greedy and will run with the first story they are fed - correct or not - as long as it generates advertising revenue.  They will line up the talking heads to pontificate on what we're doing wrong (because what we're doing right doesn't keep viewers engaged).  This gives ISIS the "even the American media says we're right" international credibility they need to validate their version of events.  Now, we're right back to the conundrum faced by George sr in 1991.  And, I believe that this political fear of adverse public opinion will neuter the western military response in a dramatic way, especially if the actions are launched under a first-term national leader.

 

[The Bread Guy]

An intriguing Canadian angle on the ISIS claim of responsibility ....

A National Post reporter says a Canadian pro-ISIS Tweeter shared this audio (links to non-terrorist page) recorded in English that this Dalhousie post-doc Fellow says is in a Canadian accent.

Keep posting & podcasting, guys - if I can find this ....

 

[Jarnhamar]

1.  War, in any form, is not humane.  If you believe we can fight a humane war against any foe, you need to give your head a shake.

Well said.

 

[jollyjacktar]

If we, the US led West (supported by China) are unwilling to do this ...

   

    Boots and tracks on the ground
          ... with several armoured and infantry divisions and, indeed, the whole panoply of modern war, leading to this ...

             

              Punitive attacks on enemy held towns and cities
                    ... followed by rather a lot of this ...

                       

                        Public (exemplary) executions of enemy leaders
                        'pour encourager les autres'
                              ... and then, this ...

                                 

                                  A speedy withdrawal, leaving the locals to cleanup and rebuild as they wish

Then ...

          ... we need to do this:

   

    A "wall" ~ physical in many places, on what amounts to being on a regional
    basis, separating "them" from "us" until "they" sort themselves out

          ... because this doesn't work:

             

If we are going to do it right and for all we will need to turn back the clock to the days of "total war".  Make all ISIL held territory look like Berlin or Dresden without the hand wringing of how it got accomplished.  The only way they will understand is if we get down into the mud with them, grapple with them and drown them and all they hold dear in the mud.  Won't happen though, LOAC is all over reaching and will are fixed in position on the moral high ground against an enemy who doesn't give a crap for Queensbury Rules such as in the Pacific 75 years ago.  Paris proves that.

I am sure the ghost of Bomber Harris is screaming why we are not JDAMing their HQ in Raqqa as it's right there for all to see among other places near and dear to them.

One of the attackers was already tagged as a known Islamist extremist.  If they know who they are, then they could start bagging them and making them disappear, for good.

 

[The Bread Guy]

The Public Safety Minister on the latest ....

In Ottawa throughout the weekend, I am in constant contact with my national security officials including the Commissioner of the RCMP and the Director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service.

The Government of Canada is unwavering in its commitment to protect the safety and security of Canadians, and to defend this nation’s values. We will take all appropriate action to counter terrorist threats to Canada, its citizens, our way of life and our interests around the world.

Canadian national security and law enforcement partners vigilantly monitor all potential threats and have robust measures in place to address them. Canada’s intelligence, security and police agencies continuously reassess their operations, and review existing security measures in response to a heightened global threat environment.  Our actions seek to ensure both our collective security and our rights and freedoms.

Canadians can be assured that when the security and intelligence sector receives credible warnings on a specific threat, they work with the appropriate partners to ensure the safety of Canadians. While Canada’s threat level remains unchanged, we are being extra vigilant in Canada as we continue to monitor the situation in Paris very closely.

Canada works closely with our French partners on counter terrorism issues and we stand ready to assist in this difficult time.

Canada’s national police force, the RCMP, together with its partners in policing and other first responders across Canada, is well positioned to respond to all known threats. Canadians are encouraged to remain vigilant and to report any unusual or suspicious behaviour to their local police.

Canada will continue to work with its Allies to fight the scourge of terrorism.

Canada is fundamentally a safe and peaceful nation. In the days ahead we will continue to take appropriate steps to keep Canadians safe and safeguard Canadian values.

 

[Stoker]

The Public Safety Minister on the latest ....

France with one of the most robust immigration policies and security services could not prevent an attack. We've been lucky so far.

 

[Tuan]

Two points for you:

1.  War, in any form, is not humane.  If you believe we can fight a humane war against any foe, you need to give your head a shake.

2. You misunderstand me when I refer to "stomach".  Look back to Gulf War 1.0.  The US-led coalition was well on it's way to Bagdad and would have made it had it not been for the images of kilometers of destroyed Iraqi vehicles lined up on the highway out of Basra.  Those graphic and repeatedly broadcast images were said to have turned US public opinion against the war, resulting in Bush Sr halting the advance on Bagdad.  (One can postulate on how many American and coalition lives could have been saved by finishing off Saddam's regime then rather than later in Gulf War 2.0?). 

The ISIS media arm can and will spin any attack against it for maximum political damage on the attackers at home.  The US media are greedy and will run with the first story they are fed - correct or not - as long as it generates advertising revenue.  They will line up the talking heads to pontificate on what we're doing wrong (because what we're doing right doesn't keep viewers engaged).  This gives ISIS the "even the American media says we're right" international credibility they need to validate their version of events.  Now, we're right back to the conundrum faced by George sr in 1991.  And, I believe that this political fear of adverse public opinion will neuter the western military response in a dramatic way, especially if the actions are launched under a first-term national leader.

What I meant was that if western powers led by the US want to wipe out ISIS, they can do it overnight by napalm the entire terrorist controlled areas. However the west is reluctant to do that not because of the consequences rather it is just inhumane. Having said that, if the terrorists are testing the waters of our toleration, moderation and coexistence; they are surely mistaken!

 

[PuckChaser]

What I meant was that if western powers led by the US want to wipe out ISIS, they can do it overnight by napalm the entire terrorist controlled areas. However the west is reluctant to do that not because of the consequences rather it is just inhumane. Having said that, if the the terrorists are testing the waters of our toleration, moderation and coexistence; they are surely mistaken!

It's called proportionality. You don't win hearts and minds by burning someone's house to the ground after ISIS displaced them. Just because Sri Lanka got away with it, doesn't mean it's right. The thing that separates us from ISIS is following the rule of law and the law of armed conflict. If we don't follow that, our militaries are little more than armed thugs.

 

[The Bread Guy]

What CSIS is telling CTV News (via a reporter's Twitter feed) ....
"CSIS "... our thoughts and prayers go out to the families and friends in Paris and all across France and Europe." .... "The tragic events in France - a peaceable and much admired democracy - are a reminder that terrorism can strike anywhere." .... "In today's global environment, no country is immune."  .... "The threat has never been as direct or immediate, and is compounded by the fact that the nature of the threat is rapidly evolving" .... In wake of #ParisAttacks CSIS tells CTV News "Canadians can be assured we are working very closely with our domestic and intl partners"

 

[jollyjacktar]

It's called proportionality. You don't win hearts and minds by burning someone's house to the ground after ISIS displaced them. Just because Sri Lanka got away with it, doesn't mean it's right. The thing that separates us from ISIS is following the rule of law and the law of armed conflict. If we don't follow that, our militaries are little more than armed thugs.

You don't need to win the hearts and minds of those who've been screwed over by ISIS, they're not going to be with them to begin with. 

As for ISIS, you're not going to win over their hearts or what little is in their minds either.  It will be a fight to the death and that is the only thing that will overcome their mind set.

 

[tomahawk6]

Belgian police are conducting raids and arrests have been made.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3318379/Hunt-Isis-killers-Syrian-passport-body-suicide-bomber-Stade-France.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

 

[a_majoor]

Mark Steyn has knocked it out of the park, as usual:

http://www.steynonline.com/7293/the-barbarians-are-inside-and-there-are-no-gates

The Barbarians Are Inside, And There Are No Gates
by Mark Steyn
November 13, 2015

As I write, Paris is under curfew for the first time since the German occupation, and the death toll from the multiple attacks stands at 158, the vast majority of them slaughtered during a concert at the Bataclan theatre, a delightful bit of 19th century Chinoiserie on the boulevard Voltaire. The last time I was there, if memory serves, was to see Julie Pietri. I'm so bloody sick of these savages shooting and bombing and killing and blowing up everything I like - whether it's the small Quebec town where my little girl's favorite fondue restaurant is or my favorite hotel in Amman or the brave freespeecher who hosted me in Copenhagen ...or a music hall where I liked to go to hear a little jazz and pop and get away from the cares of the world for a couple of hours. But look at the photographs from Paris: there's nowhere to get away from it; the barbarians who yell "Allahu Akbar!" are there waiting for you ...when you go to a soccer match, you go to a concert, you go for a drink on a Friday night. They're there on the train... at the magazine office... in the Kosher supermarket... at the museum in Brussels... outside the barracks in Woolwich...

Twenty-four hours ago, I said on the radio apropos the latest campus "safe space" nonsense:

This is what we're going to be talking about when the mullahs nuke us.

Almost. When the Allahu Akbar boys opened fire, Paris was talking about the climate-change conference due to start later this month, when the world's leaders will fly in to "solve" a "problem" that doesn't exist rather than to address the one that does. But don't worry: we already have a hashtag (#PrayForParis) and doubtless there'll be another candlelight vigil of weepy tilty-headed wankers. Because as long as we all advertise how sad and sorrowful we are, who needs to do anything?

With his usual killer comedy timing, the "leader of the free world" told George Stephanopoulos on "Good Morning, America" this very morning that he'd "contained" ISIS and that they're not "gaining strength". A few hours later, a cell whose members claim to have been recruited by ISIS slaughtered over 150 people in the heart of Paris and succeeded in getting two suicide bombers and a third bomb to within a few yards of the French president.

Visiting the Bataclan, M Hollande declared that "nous allons mener le combat, il sera impitoyable": We are going to wage a war that will be pitiless.

Does he mean it? Or is he just killing time until Obama and Cameron and Merkel and Justin Trudeau and Malcolm Turnbull fly in and they can all get back to talking about sea levels in the Maldives in the 22nd century? By which time France and Germany and Belgium and Austria and the Netherlands will have been long washed away.

Among his other coy evasions, President Obama described tonight's events as "an attack not just on Paris, it's an attack not just on the people of France, but this is an attack on all of humanity and the universal values we share".

But that's not true, is it? He's right that it's an attack not just on Paris or France. What it is is an attack on the west, on the civilization that built the modern world - an attack on one portion of "humanity" by those who claim to speak for another portion of "humanity". And these are not "universal values" but values that spring from a relatively narrow segment of humanity. They were kinda sorta "universal" when the great powers were willing to enforce them around the world and the colonial subjects of ramshackle backwaters such as Aden, Sudan and the North-West Frontier Province were at least obliged to pay lip service to them. But the European empires retreated from the world, and those "universal values" are utterly alien to large parts of the map today.

And then Europe decided to invite millions of Muslims to settle in their countries. Most of those people don't want to participate actively in bringing about the death of diners and concertgoers and soccer fans, but at a certain level most of them either wish or are indifferent to the death of the societies in which they live - modern, pluralist, western societies and those "universal values" of which Barack Obama bleats. So, if you are either an active ISIS recruit or just a guy who's been fired up by social media, you have a very large comfort zone in which to swim, and which the authorities find almost impossible to penetrate.

And all Chancellor Merkel and the EU want to do is make that large comfort zone even larger by letting millions more "Syrian" "refugees" walk into the Continent and settle wherever they want. As I wrote after the Copenhagen attacks in February:

I would like to ask Mr Cameron and Miss Thorning-Schmidt what's their happy ending here? What's their roadmap for fewer "acts of violence" in the years ahead? Or are they riding on a wing and a prayer that they can manage the situation and hold it down to what cynical British civil servants used to call during the Irish "Troubles" "an acceptable level of violence"? In Pakistan and Nigeria, the citizenry are expected to live with the reality that every so often Boko Haram will kick open the door of the schoolhouse and kidnap your daughters for sex-slavery or the Taliban will gun down your kids and behead their teacher in front of the class. And it's all entirely "random", as President Obama would say, so you just have to put up with it once in a while, and it's tough if it's your kid, but that's just the way it is. If we're being honest here, isn't that all Mr Cameron and Miss Thorning-Schmidt are offering their citizens? Spasms of violence as a routine feature of life, but don't worry, we'll do our best to contain it - and you can help mitigate it by not going to "controversial" art events, or synagogues, or gay bars, or...

...or soccer matches, or concerts, or restaurants...

To repeat what I said a few days ago, I'm Islamed out. I'm tired of Islam 24/7, at Colorado colleges, Marseilles synagogues, Sydney coffee shops, day after day after day. The west cannot win this thing with a schizophrenic strategy of targeting things and people but not targeting the ideology, of intervening ineffectually overseas and not intervening at all when it comes to the remorseless Islamization and self-segregation of large segments of their own countries.

So I say again: What's the happy ending here? Because if M Hollande isn't prepared to end mass Muslim immigration to France and Europe, then his "pitiless war" isn't serious. And, if they're still willing to tolerate Mutti Merkel's mad plan to reverse Germany's demographic death spiral through fast-track Islamization, then Europeans aren't serious. In the end, the decadence of Merkel, Hollande, Cameron and the rest of the fin de civilisation western leadership will cost you your world and everything you love.

So screw the candlelight vigil.

~I'll be talking about events in Paris on Fox & Friends Saturday morning at around 9am Eastern/6am Pacific.