North Korea (Superthread)

[geo]

I would sorta like to know what the point of the testing is , I am so uneducated with this part of warefare. But who has nuclear arms  ,  and who decides who can have them. And why would Kim be testing if not to show agresaggression

NK has had many issues in the past and the UN, the IMF and all sorts of other organisations have dictated terms to NK before they would bail him out... between famine and other Socioeconomic problems, NK didn't have a choice but to comply but, from what I have read, NK crops are plentyful this year and NK is flexing what mucsle it has - telling the world & showing it's population that it can't be pushed around......

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I have no problems with China strenghtening it's grip on NK, hopefully by killing off the top tier and placing someone competent at the top who will guide NK into the 20th century (yes I know it's the 21st century) with minamal disruption to SE Asia.

 

[a_majoor]

Trying to contain or control the DPRK will require far more time, effort and resources than anyone in the West is willing to commit at this time. Sealing the borders to the West and forcing China to pay the bill for their problem (and it is their problem, as they fear a collapse of the DPRK and the subsequent flood of refugees coming across the Yalu river) works to our advantage, since China now has to focus attention and resources against the DPRK, which are no longer available to use against us.

A Chinese dominated DPRK isn't that much of a threat to us, the Chinese will probably use it as an economic resource base with a Procouncil living in the Dear Leader's palace and dictating terms and conditions (disguised as contracts to placate the West) to the Korean people, but will then have to devote even more resources to contain the North Koreans. The Chinese (according to Kaplan) might prefer a hunk of the DPRK's territory an a seaport, and allow the South Koreans to bear the cost of reunification and rebuilding the rest. The DPRK will become a game of "hot potato" between the Chinese and Western powers, with the object of the game being to make the loser pay for rebuilding the shattered remains of the DPRK when the music stops. Place the Dear Leader on ignore for a while longer, his time is coming to an end.

 

[tomahawk6]

I wish you were right about Kim's longevity, but I am sceptical. The guy has managed to stay in power since Kim Il Sung's death, no small feat. Keep hoping to turn on the tv one day to a Romanian style people's revolt.
But until that day we have to deal with North Korea as it plays one of its two trump cards a nuclear weapon and refugees. The only real options we have with regard to North Koreas are economic. Stop the flow of money from the ex pat community in Japan and the regime will have no choice but to moderate.

 

[a_majoor]

But until that day we have to deal with North Korea as it plays one of its two trump cards a nuclear weapon and refugees. The only real options we have with regard to North Koreas are economic. Stop the flow of money from the ex pat community in Japan and the regime will have no choice but to moderate.

My point exactly. The stoppage of financial and material aid from the West puts the ball firmly in China's court, they either pick up the tab or deal with the after effect of the DPRK imploding. The regime itself will not moderate, as was pointed out in an earlier post they have no incentive. If we engage in talks, provide aid etc. they will continue with nuclear blackmail. If we do not engage they will have to take extreme steps to ensure the survival of the regime (which is what is happening now anyway).

 

[Synthos]

quote from times.hankooki.com/lpage/nation/200610/kt2006101217510111990.htm

"``If the Bush administration makes more provocations, both New York City and Tokyo will be blazed,’’ Kim said. He added the North is targeting the United States but does not want to wage a war against the South as long as Seoul takes a neutral position."

I don't know how reliable that article is, however. In the article it seems relatively clear that as long as SK "stays neutral", Soeul won't get the shit kicked out of it.

A couple thoughts of mine on the situation:
    NK might be hoping that other countries will want to buy the technology from them to help support their troubled economy.
   
    Edward, is NK's situtation really bad enough that (in however many years) they will -submit- themselves to China? That seems very unlikely to me, but then again I really don't know how bad NK is atm.

    If the US/UN imposed sanctions on NK, what would the "war" be? NK does not have the military prowess to haul ass across the pacific and fight there. Would NK strike out at Japan to force battles in Asia?

    Say that there was no nuke detonation and Kim is just playing this to see how things turn out.... Is he really that big of a gambler?

On another note,
      I've heard that Israel would be most likely to attack Iran if it they developed the capacity to produce a nuclear weapon... Is there any truth to this?

   

 

[a_majoor]

Many of you may have seen this image or something similar; lookcarefully and you will see that there are very few avenues of approach in terms of economic sanctions for the DPRK. Cut off the food and oil, and it is over. http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/dprk-dark.htm

Oc course, the DPRK is not the only place this might be true, extrapolate the night view on this map based on concentrations of transport links etc: http://www.prairiecentre.com/pdf/cp_map.pdf

 

[TCBF]

No big deal.  The Air Raid Wardens just enforce the blackout.  That's all. 

 

[Edward Campbell]

 
...  Edward, is NK's situtation really bad enough that (in however many years) they will -submit- themselves to China? That seems very unlikely to me, but then again I really don't know how bad NK is atm.
...

I was trying to say that if the crops fail again and again - as I believe they will if the NK government does not get a grip on its own domestic policies and programmes (which labour along as poor relations to the military) - then NK will collapse and they will have no alternative except China or, more likely, China + SK supported by JP and US. 

I think the Chinese intend to replace Kim Jong Il and most of the top-tier of military leaders with a fairly small, friendly coalition from within that top-tier but I acknowledge that this is a slow, difficult, risky programme.  I doubt that the Chinese certain about who will be in that friendly coalition and I suspect that many, many Chinese officials are uncertain about their own ability to get it right the first time.

This is a dangerous place and I am certain that not enough people are smart enough or well enough informed to do the right thing, right.

 

[SchreudersCDR]

This does not sound good at all

What I find most interesting is how small the testing measured (even more than that it happened to be seismographically etched in several databases).  The idea that there could be mini-nukes makes one a little concerned.  In terms of power politics, the North Korean government exercised its right to say don't touch, because, they tested their capability in open.  In terms of balacing power, one would expect someone to have missles pointed at north america.  Just in case.  Please let us not live in fear.  What matters now is what always has - peace, diplomacy, trade, education, etcetera. 

 

[tomahawk6]

Some experts feel that the test could have been a trigger for a hydrogen type bomb, which if true would be very unsettling.

 

[a_majoor]

Whatever happened at the bottom of the mine shaft was very small. In order of probability I would have to say a "fizzle" yeild due to incomplete fission is probably top of the list, with a dummy detonation of five or so KT of TNT running second.

Whatever skill and dedication the DPRK's scientific cadre might happen to have, I find the idea that they could make a thermonuclear trigger rather unlikely, particularly for the first "live" test.

 

[TCBF]

"Please let us not live in fear."

- Why stop now?  I was five years old during the Cuban Missle Crisis.  Is anyone my age or older actually losing sleep a handfull of possible warheads in the DPRK? I doubt it.

 

[exsemjingo]

What a difference a week makes.  First there are fears that N.Korea has actually become a Nuclear threat to the point where even Russia condemns the tests.  Now there have been suggestions that the test was a failure.  This in itself is incredible, because provided that one has fissionable plutonium 238 (correct me on the isotope if I am wrong), all one really has to do to make it explode is hit two pieces together.  Any idiot can make the bomb apparatus.  North Korea supposedly has a nuclear power plant so they should by all accounts be able to produce Plutonium 238.
Maybe this does not work either.  That would explain all the darkness in night-time satelite photos of the country. ;D

At any rate, two important points suggest that the status quo really has not changed:
1) Even North Korea admits (even brags) that they have to develop their own Nuclear program.  They should be able to purchase technology from China, or at least have Chinese nukes based there covertly.  The Chinese do not trust N.Korea, so they are not free to threaten anybody.
2) Northe Korea still has one of the largest armies in the world with a deeply indoctrinated population.  Any attempt to invade would result in casualties far above the tolerance of even the most hawkish western generals.

I predict more of the same, which is the continued existence of North Korea as a convenient puppet-state for China.  The Chinese seem happy enough, for now.

 

[chanman]

fissionable material is either U-235 or plutonium.

I wonder if they went for a gun-type or an implosion mechanism - it looks like the gun-type would be simpler to pull off.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Any attempt to invade would result in casualties far above the tolerance of even the most hawkish western generals.

Nice generalization, jack.  Think back to the run up to Gulf war 2- was it the Generals or the Politicians who were counciling caution? In a western democracy, who sends who to war? For the most part, Western generals are very casualty adverse, because they know and understand the business of warfare and mostly, have a genuine like, if not love of the soldiers they command.  Politicians, on the other hand...

 

[a_majoor]

What a difference a week makes.  First there are fears that N.Korea has actually become a Nuclear threat to the point where even Russia condemns the tests.  Now there have been suggestions that the test was a failure.  This in itself is incredible, because provided that one has fissionable plutonium 238 (correct me on the isotope if I am wrong), all one really has to do to make it explode is hit two pieces together.  Any idiot can make the bomb apparatus.  North Korea supposedly has a nuclear power plant so they should by all accounts be able to produce Plutonium 238.

Without going into mind numbing technicalties, just "banging two pieces together" isn't enough. As the pieces approach each other (in a Uranium "gun" bomb) or the density of the Plutonium sphere approaches criticality as the explosive shock wave compresses it, neutrons are being released and starting fission reactions. The material is moving at "mechanical" speeds, while the reactions are taking place at "quantum" speeds, many thousands of times faster. If the implosion is asymmetrical, the fission reaction will blow the Plutonium sphere apart before it reaches full critical density and prevents the reaction from achieving its full yield.

Another factor related to criticality is the purity of the material. Plutonium comes in several isotopes which have different fissile potential. Unless the reprocessed material is very "clean" and not contaminated by the other isotopes, you may end up with a device the size of a railroad locomotive due to the need for shielding, cooling etc. to prevent a premature melt down. A Uranium bomb full of impurities will probably release a burst of heat and neutrons before melting.

If it wasn't for these (and probably other) factors, nuclear weapons could be produced in your basement. So, don't attempt to break the Laws of Physics. There is no appeal.

 

[couchcommander]

There are some issues with making, or allowing, NK to be China's problem. Though it would, in the short run, relieve some pressure from us (the grand "us"), and put the onus for resolving this deteriorating situation on a strategic competitor, not to mention forcing them to be responsible for their actions in supporting this regime - I see a number of long term difficulties that would arise.

Namely, lets assume we wake up tomorrow and the NK state has dissolved - if we have allowed China to incorporate NK into its agreed sphere of influence, they are likely to take it over and install a puppet regime. If at this point we decide all of a sudden to interfere, this will create a large amount of hostility with the Chinese possibly leading to conflict. The other option of course, the one I think to be more preferable, is to have SK open it doors to the citizens and quickly move to unify the peninsula with the backing of the major democratic pacific, and NATO nations. For this though, SK and the other democracies have to take an active interest in NK and prevent China from asserting itself as the dominant power over that nation. By active interest, understand I in no way mean interacting in a hospitable manner with them, but rather directly enforcing strict sanctions and working to subvert the leadership and economy of the state - while keeping them distanced from China and constantly asserting our own freedom of movement in this area. Understand though that the Chinese will be no more pleased with a peaceful, democratic nation on its border than we would be happy with a authoritarian oligarchical state on ours - so we will be working against them to assert our ownership. Trade relations with China, in this regard, should be used as a leverage tool, along with a host of other issues, to keep them from interacting and supporting the regime (there are a number of trade disputes with China before the WTO which could be "resolved amicably" if China agreed), not to mention the simple threat of recognizing Taiwan's independance if China touches NK with a ten foot pole.

In the end though, the point is that I think it is in fact in our best interested to actually try and distance, as much as possible, North Korea and China. Further we should become as involved as we possibly can by actively trying to disrupt the normal functioning of the state in the hopes of creating a sufficient crises to bring about mass unrest, support destabilizing elements who can direct this unrest towards regime change, while further selling the "western image" to the North Korean people through our tried and true methods - Coca-Cola, Nike, and Hollywood.

 

[Synthos]

while further selling the "western image" to the North Korea people through our tried and true methods - Coca-Cola, Nike, and Hollywood.

You forgot one! McDonalds!

 

[chanman]

From the Economist - The aid that NK is getting from its northern neighbour might not be as big as you would expect.  The WFP is the UN's World Food Programme, responsible for food aid.

http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8058416

There is meanwhile a hoary assumption that China will not let North Korea collapse by suspending the aid it is often supposed to have supplied: it is said to have sent 500,000 tonnes of grain in 2005. Yet household surveys by the WFP last year found no Chinese grain. Even before the proliferation crisis, the International Crisis Group, a think-tank, concluded from research in China that its food aid was minuscule. It is probably now smaller still.

By contrast, North Korea's trade with China (including in food) has grown fast. Last year the country imported over $1 billion-worth of Chinese goods. New UN sanctions against it may change that. This week branches of the Bank of China close to the border stopped doing North Korea-related business, either at their government's decree or because of concerns that their loans could soon go bad.

North Koreans are somewhat more protected today than they were before the great famine of the mid-1990s, in which perhaps 1m died. Many can smuggle, trade, bribe, and grow food on individual plots. Still, according to the UN, a third of North Korean women with children under 24 months are malnourished or anaemic, and more than a third of children under six are stunted. One outlet for the hungry in the 1990s was China, to which 50,000-100,000 North Koreans crossed. That route is now closing, at least for those without money. In the past month, authorities in China's north-east have cracked down with dawn raids on neighbourhoods in search of North Koreans. This week, a barbed-wire fence was going up along the border. China is taking no risks.