North Korea (Superthread)

[Michael Dorosh]

I agree...eventually it will be time to put up and shut up.  The NK regime will not last more than a decade due to starvation, population decline, little to no economy, and the eventual death of KJ.  One of three things will happen.

1.  KJ will be near death, his people will begin to riot over lack of necessities and poor living conditions and the government will have no choice but to launch some sort of last ditch attack against the South or Japan, to avoid total collapse and chaos.

2. KJ will die and his successor (presumably son number three according to latest news), will either attempt to carry on status quo and fail see point #1, or start some type of post-Mao China type integration into the global community (although that might require giving up nukes which may be near impossible for regime to do)

3. US/UN finally decides enough is enough, threat is too great and military action is taken to eliminate nuke facilities and government leadership.  This issue is extremely delicate due to NK close ties with China, who the US is definitely not ready to deal with.

The likely scenario would be number 2, with China being the key player in bringing NK into the international fold.  Process will be slow but I think in the end, possible 10 - 20 years we may see re-unification.

Scenario 4 - the Soviet Union scenario - all the old timers die of old age and slightly younger enlightened types look to the west for rapprochement on equitable terms.

Don't forget how I nailed Game 7 of the Cup finals.

 

[munky99999]

Think of it like this. Say Canada all of a sudden wanted to build nuclear weapons and test them. The UN and the USA will be concerned, like China is with NK, but not freaking out. The difference is, Canada will very unlikely use them to begin with; while NK is relatively more likely to use them. The USA/UN and etc. are hoping for continued peace. By urging NK not to press the issue, they are simply saying we don’t want to go to war with you. I am pretty confident to say that they will pretty much ignore and not strike back until the NK goes way too far. By the time the NK goes too far with the “brinkmanship” even China and the UN will be backing up the suppression of the nkoreans; which I know they know they can’t go too far.

As for GWBush trying to push the subject away from Iraq; I believe that recent news of declassified information basically proving the reason for going into Iraq is a pretty good evidence for it. One might argue that these 500 WMDs were worthless and not reason enough to go into Iraq and my response is that they “just recently declassified this not so important information” just perhaps they have a huge very potent amount of WMD information that is still classified. Sure this is basically less evidence then heresay and doesn’t prove anything. But, to the open mind it definitely keeps the option of Iraq still valid.

 

[Blackhorse7]

North Korea States Any Pressure From The US Will Be Seen as an Act of War

From CBC

"North Korea said Wednesday that any increase in pressure from the United States against the communist country would be viewed as an act of war.

North Korea's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that North Korea would respond with "physical measures" if the U.S. applies pressure on the regime for testing a nuclear weapon on Monday."

This does not sound good at all.  Any thoughts on this?  The first thing that popped into my mind was WWIII.  If China sides with North Korea, we in the west have a MAJOR problem.

 

[vonGarvin]

This whole thing is a bit scary.  From a viewpoint from some guy on cbc last night (Can't remember his name, but he's dealt with NK quite often), they don't bluff.  I KNOW that the US would not back down from sanctions (NK is already sanctioned heavily), but if China were to up the ante, well, that's a different kettle of fish....

 

[ArmyGuy99]

I think this is going to turn out be one of those situations like the Cuban Missile, where the decisions made can have drastic consequences.  Especially if someone pushes a button and a makes a city or two dissapear. Even if N.K. crosses the 40th paralell conventionally, the U.S. almost completely pulled out of South Korea, it could get a little dicey.

And that could be before S.K, and Japan start their own Nuc Programs.  The world has definatley gotten a wee bit more dangerous and complicated.

Armyguy99

 

[cplcaldwell]

From a viewpoint from some guy on cbc last night (Can't remember his name, but he's dealt with NK quite often)...

Patrick Brown?

Clip online at cbc.ca (this link).

Requires Real Player.

Runs 13:22.

Excellent reporting, as usual, by Patrick Brown.

 

[geo]

from what I have read so far, China is realy pi$$ed at N Korea.
While they do not support any kind of military action/sanction, they are applying / or intend to apply economic sanctions

Problem with economic sanctions is you're always gonna hurt the little guy

 

[FredDaHead]

"This is a huge s**t sandwich and we're all going to have to take a bite."

Although Lil' Kim is quite insane, I don't think he's insane enough to try and do anything to South Korea. But I do believe if he tries anything, North Korea will become the biggest parking lot/glassfield in the history of mankind. Russia, China and the US are getting quite mad at Lil' Kim, and it's not a very smart idea to piss off the three biggest nuclear powers in the world.

As for the comparison with the Cuban missile crisis, I think there are probably already a lot of submarines (from all 3 big players... probably some other countries, too) in the area, and I'm sure the US is considering bringing one of their battlegroups a little closer--the closest is the Kitty Hawk somewhere in Japan--along with a bunch of extra subs. The problem I see is that the US military is stretched in terms of land combat, and probably couldn't fight a war in South Korea on short notice. Even Canada, Australia and other middle powers would probably not get there in time to stop Lil' Kim from taking Seoul (or destroying it) and most of the peninsula would probably be red by the time the West could mount a counter-offensive.

To quote Big Foot, "these are interesting times we live in."

 

[career_radio-checker]

Even Canada, Australia and other middle powers would probably not get there in time to stop Lil' Kim from taking Seoul (or destroying it) and most of the peninsula would probably be red by the time the West could mount a counter-offensive.

To quote Big Foot, "these are interesting times we live in."

That is exactly what happened in 1950 but the allies managed to push them up to the Chinese borders. But now we are talking about nuclear weapons.  Who knows what would happen? This is the one time I am listening to the little naive voice in my head and would like to leave it at that question.

 

[warrickdll]

Does the US currently have the capacity to follow through if it did threaten North Korea?

North Korea must know that the US is in a bad spot:
- The US is majorly tied down in Iraq.
- There is increased pressure for the US to reinforce Afghanistan.
- After years of saying that there will be no Draft the Republicans aren't likely to do a call up now with pending elections.

The North Koreans, and Iranians, must be marveling at the extent of the repercussions so far. "Bad North Korea! No dessert for you!". If this wasn't a real nuke test then this can hardly be a deterrent to one in the future.


A basket case economy like North Korea can't be easily influenced by embargos. Iran has seen how impractical embargos are against oil producing nations, so it can't be too upset with the prospect economic sanctions either.


The best result at the moment (besides someone on the inside hitting the nut over the head with a club) would be for China to roll over the border and then quickly hand the mess over to South Korea. Unlikely, but it would give China enormous prestige.

The US will look extremely weak if it can't influence the situation at all.

 

[career_radio-checker]

Alright sorry for the double post but a word of caution:

Members of the media are amongst us and I am personally going to refrain from speculating a course of action. This site has been used in the media before and it could be quoted as a "credible" source for militaristic opinions / what the military wants to do. I see this is an extremely tense period and don't want to be part of the scare.

 

[Mike Baker]

I honestly think that the N Koreans are on the verge of doing something very, very stupid. And the responce to that will put the N Korean people in worse shape then they are now.

 

[Rockhound]

As I understand it, the DPRK made the actual decision to go nuclear 25 odd years ago - why at that time did they feel it was necessary, and what has really changed WRT the factors this original decision?  I appreciate that few in the world could actually know the real answer but their retoheric would suggest the primarary motivation is the reunification of the pennisula.  The apologists suggest it is because of Bush's pre-emptive strategy (that did not exist 25years ago).  Others suggest it is being done in order to sell them to others with a hate-on for the USA.

Could there be a hope on the part of the North Koreans that by owning nucs it take nucs off the table for the USA response options - a detente if you will, limiting all action to strictly conventional response?  Would this allow them more freedom of action with conventional force - especially now, given the demands on the USA and UK?  If the answers are in the affirmative is it likely they will be as rash as some suggest and attack the South?

If the last question is Yes - what about Iran?  This one heck of a good distraction from their activites, especially if they are further along with Nuc development than they let on (due to such a lack of intel identified in the 9-11 commission who really knows where they are?).  Would they capitalize on this?

All a bit pessimisstic, I know, but they appear to be valid questions (but then again I am not expert on such matters)

Cheers

RPC

 

[Old Guy]

I think North Korea is a hollow shell.  Kim's saber rattling is intended, I believe, to keep everyone off balance and to extort more aid from China and the West.  Whether he's over-stepped himself -- only time will tell.

Armies are more than mere numbers.  NK is a humanitarian disaster, getting worse by the day.  The deteriorating situation in the countryside and cities has to have an effect on the military, no matter how draconian the regime.

NK generals may be eating well, but how about the rank-and-file?  If the combat troops are getting adequate rations, what about the mechanics and other technicians needed to keep any military force in motion?  Logistically, how much combat could the NK forces sustain before they ran out of supplies?

It is probably impossible for anyone outside North Korea to imagine the extent of the horror there.  The entire country is slowly becoming a vast, open-air tomb.

Napolean is supposed to have said: "Never forget the enemy marches through the same mud." 

The mud, figuratively speaking, is becoming neck-deep on the NK side. 

In some ways, I hope I'm wrong, but I fear that I am not.

Jim

 

[zipperhead_cop]

I wonder if this incident is anything along the same lines as the crap Iran has been pulling?  Everybody sees the USA as overstreached, and most of Europe have distinguished themselves as self serving isolationists in the military scheme of things (Brits excepted).  There is a lot of sabre rattling going on from people who might have otherwise kept to themselves before the US was jammed up in Iraq.  Does the United States still have the same capacity to project power that it did before Iraq?  Too far out of my lane to say. 
Plus, the whole "it can't be confirmed as an actual nuke" issue is interesting.  What's to say it wasn't a big cave full of conventional explosives that were used to simulate a nuclear explosion?  If there were rumblings from NK's chums (terrorists and radical states as such) that they were not so sure if they even had nuclear technology, maybe he would want to put on a show in order to try to make him a big man again.  Seems to me that the nuclear threat is the only thing that has kept him from getting his arse handed to him for some time now.  I can't see how honking off China is a really great idea, though. 

Maybe KJI finally got his DVD version of Team America-World Police and blew a gasket? 

 

[warrickdll]

A massive redeployment of US forces (without actually saying they will invade) to the area has advantages:
- This would give the US a credible excuse to do a draw down in the number of troops they have in Iraq.
- More pressure could be added to NATO members to step up in Afghanistan so that the US can reposition forces (especially Air) to East Asia.
- Reserve and National Guard weariness from the Iraq campaign could be mitigated with a shift in focus to containing North Korea.

With a redeployment to the area the US would also be able to bring its Navy and Air Force into the forefront and give some of the Army a short pause. And more importantly, this would put China in Cr*p or get off the pot mode. Not that that worked so well in 1950, but things have changed.

If China were to then back North Korea and call for the US not to invade (highly likely), then the US could simply not invade in the interest of world peace, leaving China fully aligned with International Crackpots man of the year, and also with an alarmingly more militarized Japan and South Korea (plus an increased US presence in say... Taiwan).

If the US redeployed to the area and China did nothing, then China would seem weak (and on its own doorstep).

 

[Brad Sallows]

>The problem I see is that the US military is stretched in terms of land combat, and probably couldn't fight a war in South Korea on short notice.

The US land forces don't have to be there.  I suppose South Korea is in better shape to deal with a North Korean invasion than South Vietnam was with respect to North Vietnam in the early '70s.  If all the US does is keep sea lanes into SK open so that armaments and munitions can flow in, it will be enough.  If the US is prepared to provide naval and air support it will be more than enough.  If China wants to support NK against SK, I can't imagine why the US wouldn't immediately cease trade with China and tell them to go shop their wares in Europe.

 

[paracowboy]

anybody know what the rictor(sp) scale said about it actually being a nuke? Nuke blasts make a big shake. A REAL big shake.

 

[3rd Herd]

anybody know what the rictor(sp) scale said about it actually being a nuke? Nuke blasts make a big shake. A REAL big shake.

"We're still evaluating the data, and as more data comes in, we hope to develop a clearer picture," said one official familiar with intelligence reports.
"There was a seismic event that registered about 4 on the Richter scale, but it still isn't clear if it was a nuclear test. You can get that kind of seismic reading from high explosives."

Source:U.S. doubts Korean test was nuclear, Bill Gertz, THE WASHINGTON TIMES, October 10, 2006

Map from Discovery Channel:

 

[warrickdll]

...The US land forces don't have to be there.  I suppose South Korea is in better shape to deal with a North Korean invasion than South Vietnam was with respect to North Vietnam in the early '70s.  If all the US does is keep sea lanes into SK open so that armaments and munitions can flow in, it will be enough.  If the US is prepared to provide naval and air support it will be more than enough. ...

Yes. But so far South Korea has displayed a policy of "I don't want to die", which has certain amount of logic and a generally universal appeal to it. Both China and North Korea probably realize that.

The US needs to be able to project the capacity of complete Air and Naval superiority in the area along with a moderate Land capacity. South Korea might not commit until that is shown.

Still, having a preemptive Chinese occupation of North Korea, to prevent a US attack, adds stability to the situation. A post-emptive )) Chinese response would be a disaster.



As to the reality; even if not a real event, the global response has been real - and so far that response has been overwhelmingly limited.