North Korea (Superthread)

[Jungle]

Even the public knows that story is BS.

Some in the public believe that the official version is BS.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I have no brief for or against the linked blog and, of course, no way of assessing the quality of what it says but I find this article about a so-called US "playbook" interesting.

 

[mba2011]

I have no brief for or against the linked blog and, of course, no way of assessing the quality of what it says but I find this article about a so-called US "playbook" interesting.

Its an interesting blog for sure. No doubt the US has a playbook for DPRK. The time around the meetings they have every year are generally a time of increased tensions so some posturing was to be expected. But the scale to which the DPRK has escalated things is unprecedented. Kim Jong-il only did a couple of troop inspections and had a massive parade in October to mark the anniversary of the Workers Party's founding.

The blog doesn't address the movement of SBX from Hawaii, the re-positioning of most of  the US's NMD weapons. Not only have they moved interceptors to Ft Greely, but other Aegis Guided Missile destroyers and THAAD systems  as well. The blog does address that there is usually more military posturing this time of year but it minimalizes the depth of the posturing.

Saber rattling or not, all this is pretty significant.

 

[Nemo888]

It does not make sense. Part of the picture is missing.

Perhaps someone is trying to measure  the logistical strength America still has after two decade long wars and a trillion or so of debt?

Is it just me or does this whole thing just smell off? There is no winning move for either side if a conflict starts.

 

[cupper]

It's a large combination of things coming together.

Annual military exercises in the ROK, a US military winding down two foreign wars while at the same time facing deep and significant yet unspecified cuts in spending, a disfunctional government, a poor global economy, and a young inexperienced dictator looking to prove himself to the old guard.

And what could go wrong?

 

[BrendenDias]

If N.Korea goes on the first offensive, China should step in to stop them, or since their "friendship" could be honored, they should at least stay out of it. However, if the US/S.Koreans attack first (unlikely) or push the North back, since it would be on North Korean soil, the Chinese could step in, in favor of the North Koreans.
But since the Chinese own a whole lot of American debt, why discomfort so much to get involved against them? Clearly China is a superpower of trade, and controlling markets, etc... 
Who really knows for sure what would happen.. and if conflict erupts, I have no idea what China and Russia would do.. They both could realize how stupid the North is being, and not intervene, or go against them, or attempt to discomfort the Americans by aiding the North..
What is for sure, is that the next couple months, or even weeks should be "interesting..."

 

[CougarKing]

If N.Korea goes on the first offensive, China should step in to stop them, or since their "friendship" could be honored, they should at least stay out of it. However, if the US/S.Koreans attack first (unlikely) or push the North back, since it would be on North Korean soil, the Chinese could step in, in favor of the North Koreans.
But since the Chinese own a whole lot of American debt, why discomfort so much to get involved against them? Clearly China is a superpower of trade, and controlling markets, etc...  
Who really knows for sure what would happen.. and if conflict erupts, I have no idea what China and Russia would do.. They both could realize how stupid the North is being, and not intervene, or go against them, or attempt to discomfort the Americans by aiding the North..
What is for sure, is that the next couple months, or even weeks should be "interesting..."

B.Dias,

While Beijing's actual intentions are very opaque, many in Western  foreign policy circles such as former Australian PM Kevin Rudd, seem to agree that at least for the foreseeable decade, China has an interest in making sure that the region remains stable, in order to ensure continued China's own economic prosperity and internal political stability.

Much in our media points to a Chinese buildup on the border with North Korea, but one should also remember that this could also just be the Chinese living up to their end of their mutual defense treaty with North Korea:

(...)

The buildup likely serves two goals, the officials said. One is to bolster border security in case a conflict sends large numbers of refugees from the impoverished state into China.

Additionally, the troop buildup is a signal to Pyongyang that China will abide by its defense commitment to North Korea in the event of renewed conflict.

China’s military maintains a mutual defense treaty with North Korea. The last time Chinese troops defended North Korea was during the Korean War.

(...)

Read more: Washington Times link

Still, since vested Chinese interests in an economically viable South Korea are MUCH greater than in the sabre-rattling "hermit kingdom" of North Korea, it is also possible that Beijing may abandon Pyongyang as discussed in another article link below at the Chinese superthread:

"China ready to abandon North Korea" 2010 article

 

[Journeyman]

.... I find this article about a so-called US "playbook" interesting.

It's been getting mentioned for a couple of months now (starting before the WSJ caught up).  I can't help but think that it seems more like an Exercise MEL* writ large, rather than some Masonic-like conspiracy plan that some writers posit.

:dunno:


* Master Events List, not Medical Employment Limitations

 

[Old Sweat]

And it is possible, considering that actions that look provocative and batty to the outside might just seem logical and coherent to the North Korean leadership, that the MEL is designed to culminate in a previously scheduled missile test firing designed to score a direct hit on the Pacific Ocean. This is followed by some boasting and the issue of medals all around. Or maybe the glorious leader just wants Obama to give him a call.

 

[Edward Campbell]

And it is possible, considering that actions that look provocative and batty to the outside might just seem logical and coherent to the North Korean leadership, that the MEL is designed to culminate in a previously scheduled missile test firing designed to score a direct hit on the Pacific Ocean. This is followed by some boasting and the issue of medals all around. Or maybe the glorious leader just wants Obama to give him a call.

I think the DPRK leadership* wants - maybe needs - two things:

    1. Some urgent financial help; and

    2. Legitimacy.

It would appear that item 2, legitimacy, is, for now, at the top of the list and that's what a phone call from Obama, or something like that, would provide. It may also be that the DPRK finds China's "support" a bit stifling: that's why they have had to turn to buying antiquated Russian missiles, designed for use in submarines, from Iran.

Regarding the MEL or "playbook:" there has been a certain level of predictability about events in the region over the past few years, ever since the DPRK decided to go down the nuclear path - a perfectly logical decision, on their part, I think.



_____
* Whoever that is: Kim Jong-un, his aunt and uncle, some generals, someone else entirely ...

 

[cupper]

It would appear that item 2, legitimacy, is, for now, at the top of the list and that's what a phone call from Obama, or something like that, would provide.

What? Are you telling me that a visit from Dennis Rodman doesn't give legitimacy to the regime? I'd say that Kim got a lot of street cred with his homies in the hood on that one. :

 

[CougarKing]

What? Are you telling me that a visit from Dennis Rodman doesn't give legitimacy to the regime? I'd say that Kim got a lot of street cred with his homies in the hood on that one. :

Cupper,

Actually, here is the REAL REASON why Dennis Rodman came to North Korea to see Kim Jong Un, his "friend for life," so to speak...  ;D

 

[CougarKing]

Back to the topic at hand...

I have a question- in spite of the statement below that there is a lack of movement in rear areas, couldn't the movements of rear echelon or support troops mentioned below just be concealed?  ???

National Post link

North Korea tells embassies in Pyongyang to plan for evacuation

North Korea has asked embassies in Pyongyang that might wish to get staff out if there is a war to submit plans to it by April 10, Britain said on Friday, as it upped the pressure as part of a war of words that has set the Korean peninsula on edge.

Initial reports by Russia’s Foreign Ministry and China’s Xinhua news agency suggested that North Korea had suggested that embassies should consider closing because of the risk of conflict.

The request came amid a military buildup by the United States in South Korea following the North’s warnings that war was inevitable due to U.N. sanctions imposed for a nuclear test and what it terms “hostile” U.S. troop drills with South Korea.

“We believe they have taken this step as part of their continuing rhetoric that the U.S. poses a threat to them,” Britain’s Foreign Office said in a statement after the reports from Russia and China.

A British diplomatic official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that European Union embassies in Pyongyang had been summoned to deliver their evacuation plans.


(...)

Kim Kwan-jin said that if North Korea were preparing for a full-scale conflict, there would be signs including the mobilization of a number of units, including supply and rear troops, but South Korean military officials have found no such preparations.

(...)

 

[The Bread Guy]

The latest from the U.S. Congressional Research Service on N.Korean nukes attached (thanks to the Federation of American Scientists for sharing) - this from the exec summary:

.... In total, it is estimated that North Korea has between 30 and 50 kilograms of separated plutonium, enough for at least half a dozen nuclear weapons. North Korea’s plutonium production reactor at Yongbyon has been shuttered since its cooling tower was destroyed under international agreement in June 2008. However, on April 1, 2013, North Korea said it would resume operation of its plutonium production reactor. Experts estimate it will take approximately six months to restart. This would provide North Korea with approximately one bomb’s worth of plutonium per year.

(....)

Many experts believe that the prime objective of North Korea’s nuclear program is to develop a nuclear warhead that could be mounted on North Korea’s intermediate-range and long-range missiles. This was confirmed by North Korean official statements in late March 2013.  Miniaturization of a nuclear warhead would likely require additional nuclear and missile tests.

(....)

To date, no open source date on test emissions is available that might show whether the North Koreans tested a uranium or plutonium device. This information could help determine the type and sophistication of the North Korean nuclear warhead design, about which little is known.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Oh No!  ;D

 

[CougarKing]

The day after Dennis Rodman's visit to North Korea...  ;D

 

[tomahawk6]

I doubt that North Korea has a nuclear warhead. They just had a successful underground test but thats not the same as putting a warhead on a ballistic missile and launching it at a target.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

I doubt that North Korea has a nuclear warhead. They just had a successful underground test but thats not the same as putting a warhead on a ballistic missile and launching it at a target.

There are other ways of delivering a nuke warhead besides a ballistic missile.

 

[CougarKing]

There are other ways of delivering a nuke warhead besides a ballistic missile.

Don't the North Koreans have 22 aging Romeo class submarines they acquired from China? Aren't these the same as the Soviet-era Whiskey class submarines which are capable of launching nuclear-armed torpedoes (such as the SET-65) at an adversary's fleet or port?

 

[mba2011]

Don't the North Koreans have 22 aging Romeo class submarines they acquired from China? Aren't these the same as the Soviet-era Whiskey class submarines which are capable of launching nuclear-armed torpedoes (such as the SET-65) at an adversary's fleet or port?

They have replaced 8 of the Romeo class boats and are, at last report, still planning on retiring them. They are being replaced by the Sang-O class, that could fire a nuclear armed torpedo. The Whiskey Class boats have all been removed service and are in the process of being scrapped.

There is no known development on a nuclear torpedo platform though, according to both ROK and US defense think tanks. I would have a hard time seeing them spend the money on a torpedo weapons platform, owing to the fact that the submarines have such a limited capability.