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North Korea (Superthread)

Their leadership has a track-record of spooling this up during the routine US-S.Korean war games, and once again, when ENDEX is called, Kim Jong Un can turn to his people and claim to have caused the exercise to end and the US presence to scale down.

Kim Jong Un is a relatively new leader who needs to reaffirm his "place."  Yes, the rhetoric is more bellicose this time, but I suspect that barring anyone crossing some misperceived line, we're seeing much ado about nothing.



Besides, it draws attention away from the hand-wringing "won't someone think of the Syrians?!" crowd.  [/cynicism]
 
Journeyman said:
Their leadership has a track-record of spooling this up during the routine US-S.Korean war games, and once again, when ENDEX is called, Kim Jong Un can turn to his people and claim to have caused the exercise to end and the US presence to scale down.

Kim Jong Un is a relatively new leader who needs to reaffirm his "place."  Yes, the rhetoric is more bellicose this time, but I suspect that barring anyone crossing some misperceived line, we're seeing much ado about nothing.



[size=8pt]Besides, it draws attention away from the hand-wringing "won't someone think of the Syrians?!" crowd.  [/cynicism]


It also draws attention away from China's serious and continuing disputes with its neighbours re: maritime boundaries.
 
Kim the younger is probably not in control.Rather he is the new face of communist North Korea.He is untested and has very little experience.The North Korean aim may be to bolster Kim's image internally as a tough leader. The other thing I have noticed is that Kim Mao suits and hair style may be intended to make him into a modern day Kim Il Sung.

kim-il-sung_1670436c.jpg


2013-04-03T050337Z_1_CBRE9320E3100_RTROPTP_2_CNEWS-US-KOREA-NORTH-KIM.JPG
 
What an air war on North Korea would look like, according to Popular Mechanics magazine:

Popular Mechanics link

This Is What Air War Over North Korea Would Look Like

Why the U.S. sends stealth aircraft to Korean war games, and why it freaks out North Korea

It's easy to mock North Korea for its lack of infrastructure—shoddy communications, electricity, and transportation. But one thing the nation has is a decent air defense system. Because military action of any size would require dominating the airspace over the rogue nation, the radar sites and antiaircraft missiles available to Kim Jong-un make the airspace over North Korea one of the world's most dangerous.

That's not to say it's impenetrable. The U.S. Air Force has faced much of this hardware before, and prevailed—it's just not easy. And last week, the U.S. began to fly B-2 practice missions over the Korean peninsula, just to remind North Korea what the American Air Force can do.

Here's what you should know about the attack and defense strategies on both sides of the DMZ.

North Korean Defense

North Korea has air defenses that cover most of the country. The border is a wall of radar, with overlapping coverage. The coasts are also covered to prevent access from that direction. And because so much military infrastructure is located in the interior of North Korea, much of that airspace is well-defended too. Much of this gear was made during the Soviet era but modernized with digital controls. North Korea also fields Chinese versions of radar equipment. Mobile radar units, mounted on vehicles, can provide a shoot-and-scoot capability that helps radar defenses survive an attack.

High-flying attack aircraft may choose to duck under radar nets.  To defend against that strategy, the North Koreans have invested a lot of energy in antiaircraft guns. These are low-tech but can be dangerous. In fact, their relative lack of sophistication could be an asset—the manually operated systems are immune to cyber attacks and other electronic warfare. North Korea will use these guns to protect its radar sites, and it has another, more capable threat to low-fliers: thousands of shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles.

Yes, North Korea has Soviet-era fighters and bombers, but these are not much of a threat given South Korea's air defenses and highly capable pilots in modern warplanes such as U.S. F-15s and F-16s.

The last lines of defense are the tunnels—some air bases and command centers are burrowed underground. An attacking air force could cave these in or destroy them outright, but that would require extra-precision airstrikes and possibly special ordnance such as bunker busters. This complicates an air campaign, especially one with many priority targets to hit early in the war (North Korean artillery batteries, ballistic missiles, weapons of mass destruction, and troop concentrations, for example), each competing for attention.

Some observers equate the North Korean defenses with Iraq's in 1991, which the U.S.-led coalition dismantled with surprisingly few casualties. It's true that a lot of the equipment is the same, but the seeming ease of Desert Storm belies the dangers that could await on the Korean peninsula. In one often-forgotten encounter, the Iraqis observed the aerial refueling of inbound F-117 stealth fighters on radar. They waited for a half-hour, then let loose a barrage of missiles and AA gunfire over Baghdad. It turned out that the U.S. warplanes were bound for Mosul, but if they had been heading to the capital, the tactic could have worked.

Allied Attack Strategy

Stealth airplanes such as the B-2 Spirit and F-22 Raptor are built to operate in areas with thick air defenses. Yes, their shapes and materials can evade radar, giving the U.S. an obvious advantage over North Korea. But each has specific capabilities that must make North Korea war planners uneasy.

The B-2 has an immense range. North Korea has hundreds of ballistic missiles that it could use to attack airbases in the region. The B-2, however, can fly from the safety of Missouri to strike targets deep inside North Korea. And when it comes to ordnance, the B-2 is rated to drop the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000-pound bunker buster. This is a good antidote for underground priority targets.

The B-2 has other tricks. In 1991, the U.S. fooled Iraqi defenders with a barrage of decoys that caused the radar crews to switch on their systems—which could then be targeted. This is an important tactic when facing radar systems mounted on vehicles. Decoys have gotten smaller and more advanced; Raytheon's MALD is a good example. The B-2 can carry these decoys, launch them from 500 miles away, and confuse defenders into firing at the wrong targets.

The F-22 has never faced combat. But Raptors have appeared in Pentagon exercises in Korea, signaling that this is a place they could make their debut. Of all stealth aircraft, the Raptor is the fastest, most maneuverable, and hardest to spot. It dominates the sky—the North Korean air force would be seriously outmatched—but can also conduct air-to-ground missions. The F-22 could play a major role along the DMZ, if there were air bases nearby that had not been struck with conventional or chemical weapon warheads (the F-22 doesn't have the B-2's globe-spanning range).

The appearance of stealth warplanes over the Korean peninsula spooked North Korea. The reason: They are meant to exploit and defeat the regime's defense plans.
 
Now I wonder where my post went ? Anyone seen it ? I found it. I just forgot to hit the post button.Getting old sucks.

I don't think the scenario advanced by Popular Mechanics is likely.:)
 
An article on Kim Jong Un's aunt and uncle, the real power couple believed to control the reins of the North, as well as two other key figures in the regime:

*Kim Kyong-Hui- the aunt of Kim Jong Un

*Jang Sung-Taek- the uncle of Kim Jong Un

*Vice-Chairman Choe Ryong-Hae of the Central Military Committee

*Defense Minister Kim Kyok Sik, hardline military commander

ABC news link

North Korea's Real Power, Kim Jong Un's Aunt and Uncle
By JOOHEE CHO (@jooheecho)

SEOUL, South Korea April 1, 2013

North Korea's young leader Kim Jong Un has been portrayed as a tough talking leader setting the world's nerves on edge with his belligerence, but many analysts believe the real powers behind-the-scenes are Kim's aunt and uncle.

Among Kim's small inner circle the most influential, often referred to as the "first family," are Kim's aunt Kim Kyong-Hui and her husband Jang Sung-Taek, both 66. The power couple were reportedly anointed by late-Kim Jong Il to help his 30 year-old son consolidate his position as the new figurehead and control the 1.2 million member military.

The duo was spotted most recently sitting on each side of Kim at Sunday's plenary meeting of the central committee of the ruling Workers' Party when Kim issued his latest defiant remarks, vowing to keep nuclear weapons as "the nation's life treasure" and saying it will not be traded even for "billions of dollars."

Kim Jong Un's father, analysts say, had decades of training to lead the country and control the military, but the young Kim made his debut while still in his 20s with little time as his father's understudy. North Korean people had not even heard of his existence until just a couple years before Kim Jong Il's death.

Creating an image as a military leader is partially behind the heated rhetoric of the past few months in which Kim has threatened the U.S., South Korea, shut down hot lines and ordered his missile batteries to be readied to be fired.

"They are in a hurry to establish Kim's image as a powerful military leader to gain respect and control. And the ones doing that are Kim Kyong Hui and her husband Jang," said Jeung Young Tai, senior research fellow at Korea Institute for National Unification.


Kim Kyong-Hui, a younger sister of late-Kim Jong Il, has been a central political figure in North Korean politics for the past 40 years. She is believed to have been purged from 2003 to 2009 when she suddenly disappeared from public view. But she has reemerged in a key role in transferring power from her brother to her nephew. She was made a four star general in 2010 and appointed as the director of Workers' Party of Korea's Organization and Guidance Department, which is considered as the most prestigious post inside the Party.

Her husband, Jang Sung-Taek was a close confidant to late-Kim Jong Il and led the national guards in charge of protecting the head of state.

Jang also spearheaded North Korea's ill-fated attempts to revive its economy, making numerous trips to Chinese cities in hopes to duplicate China's economic success. Intelligence sources in South Korea see Jang as the counter-balancer to North Korea's military hardliners.
He reportedly had opposed the idea of launching the long-range missile last December, but was overruled by his wife.

Close to Jang is North Korea's most powerful military general and the de facto No.2 figure as vice chairman of the party's Central Military Committee, Choe Ryong-Hae. Choe, 64, does not have a military background. His career path was rather a party bureaucrat and involved in managing the armed forces. But together with Jang, Choe is the chief image maker of Kim Jong Un as a primary military figure.

"They're trying desperately to portray an image of General Kim perfectly conducting the military in times of national crisis by intentionally creating a crisis situation these days," said Yun Duk-Min, professor at Korea National Diplomatic Academy.

One last power player is Kim Kyok Sik, North Korea's defense minister and a hardline military commander. He is believed to have commanded the attack on the South Korean submarine that killed 46 sailors and shelling of Yeonpyong Island in 2010. Kim served as the military attaché to Syria in the 1970s where he is suspected to have provided training support to movements in Ethiopia and Turkey.

Cho Long Park, Joanne Kim, and Hunny Jeong contributed to this report

 
tomahawk6 said:
Now I wonder where my post went ? Anyone seen it ? I found it. I just forgot to hit the post button.Getting old sucks.

Old ain't got nothing to do with it. I did that 3 times in a row a couple of weeks ago. :facepalm:
 
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/04/north-korea-moves-missile-coast

Its a lot of saber-rattling but it still isn't something that should be taken lightly.

 
Pandora114 said:
dpckUUt.jpg


There you go.

Nice pic, except it completely misses the whole part of THOUSANDS of N. Korean Artillery Pieces pointed at the South, Seoul in particular.  I am not fully versed in all things international, but I suspect THAT is a might big issue.
 
IMO Lil' Kim doesn't take a crap without clearing it with Beijing. Remember when China was funding Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan to bleed America's economy. Especially around the time we "accidentally" bombed their embassy in Kabul. I may be cynical but I think this may be something similar. The question is not what does NK have to gain by this. The question is what does Beijing have to gain?
 
Nemo888 said:
IMO Lil' Kim doesn't take a crap without clearing it with Beijing. Remember when China was funding Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan to bleed America's economy. Especially around the time we "accidentally" bombed their embassy in Kabul. I may be cynical but I think this may be something similar. The question is not what does NK have to gain by this. The question is what does Beijing have to gain?

Leaving aside the issue of how much control the Chinese have over North Korea, I do not recall any bombing of the Chinese embassy in Kabul by the Americans. However the Chinese embassy in Belgrade was hit during the 1990s. Can you provide details of the Kabul incident?
 
Hatchet Man said:
Nice pic, except it completely misses the whole part of THOUSANDS of N. Korean Artillery Pieces pointed at the South, Seoul in particular.  I am not fully versed in all things international, but I suspect THAT is a might big issue.

The North does have a ridiculous number of troops and weapons along the border but the South and the US has them out mached. The North has 65% of their military assets within 100km of the DMZ (75% of their aggregate firepower) which is way more than the ROK has within the same area. But the South has far superior equipment and the US. The US has 40,000 troops in ROK, 53,000 in Japan, and 8,000 in Guam. Aside from the sheer numbers, the ROK's far superior equipment and the US's unparalleled equipment gives them the edge without question.

The cartoon ignores the artillery and other weapons the North has, but those really are nothing in comparison to the ROK's and US's. The cartoon isn't just about the missile pictured its the whole conflict aha.

Nemo888 said:
IMO Lil' Kim doesn't take a crap without clearing it with Beijing. Remember when China was funding Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan to bleed America's economy. Especially around the time we "accidentally" bombed their embassy in Kabul. I may be cynical but I think this may be something similar. The question is not what does NK have to gain by this. The question is what does Beijing have to gain?

Over the past few weeks Beijing is withdrawing their support for the North. The UN resolution that was helped spark this latest round of hostilities was co-authored by China and they've cut their aid funding to DPRK by 40%. It's very reactionary for Beijing and shows how serious they view the DPRK's actions.

IMO Even Beijing is leery of the North. They don't support the DPRK provoking the US and I find it hard to believe they would support them if this saber rattling and posturing  gets to the point of armed aggression. Beijing would push for a diplomatic solution but it would be hard to see them backing the DPRK against the US. Not that the Chinese support the US, but they won't ruin their diplomatic ties with other countries over this.
 
I think what Beijing does is opaque; what Beijing thinks is even more obscure.

Beijing, I believe, broadly supports any and all efforts to discomfit the USA and, to a lesser degree, Japan. The Chinese goal, in my opinion, is to expel the Americans from the Asian mainland and to shake Japan's and South Korea's faith in America's promises. I think that China is vehemently opposed to any significant military action against South Korea. South Korea, like Japan, is a major source of both investment and managerial know how for China, and, as always, China is conscious of the impact of its (or the DPRK'd) actions on Taiwan. Thus, while China tolerates, even cooperates in developing the DPRK's missile and nuclear technology, it will not, I suspect, tolerate any military action much beyond sinking a South Korean patrol boat or shooting down a ROK aircraft.


On the issue of refugees: the Chinese do not want more refugees from the DPRK than they have; but they do not send legitimate refugees back to North Korea, they are allowed to stay in China, so long as they don't cause any problems, and fend for themselves, as well as they can.


Finally: a Chinese invasion of the DPRK is not simple. Look at the map: there are few bridges across the Yalu River and those that exist are medium capacity, two lane bridges. (The DPRK just agreed, after years and years of negotiations to one four lane bridge but construction has not started.) Regions where the Yalu is not a major obstacle are far from Chinese rail and road links and far from important DPRK objectives. The Chinese army has changed a lot over the past few decades. It no longer consists of huge corps of infantry and artillery. It is, now, a much smaller, much more technically complex and sophisticated force - it far outclasses the DPRK army but it can no longer concentrate and outnumber or even outgun it in Shenyang Military Region.


 
E.R. Campbell said:
Despite media reports there is no official word that the Chinese are building up forces near North Korea and there are plenty of reasons to think that they would not do that - fear of triggering further DPRK madness being just one...

And still our media continues to report it...

Risky business: China continues military buildup near North Korean border as tanks, armor deploy

Washington Times link

China continued moving tanks and armored vehicles and flying flights near North Korea this week as part of a military buildup in the northeastern part of the country that U.S. officials say is related to the crisis with North Korea.

The Obama administration, meanwhile, sought to play down the Chinese military buildup along the border with Beijing’s fraternal communist ally despite the growing danger of conflict following unprecedented threats by Pyongyang to attack the United States and South Korea with nuclear weapons.

(...)

Couldn't this Washington Times reporter have come up with a better phrase than one as redundant as "Flying Flights"? Ahhh...the quality of journalism these days...  ::)
 
DPRK is in no position to piss off China. This sabre rattling is not for internal consumption because the Kims control everything NK'ers see and hear. NK'ers don't even know what's going on. It doesn't make sense. What does make sense is someone pulling Kim's strings as a proxy. When a war breaks out South Korea is destroyed in hours and won't be able to recover for many decades. A month later the Kim's are all dead or in hiding. Lose - Lose. 

China did not support Al Qaeda or the Taliban publicly either. But we still had to bomb their embassy to send them a message. China has a massive military medical program that arrests dissidents and protesters and sells their organs for profit. They literally round up Uighurs to meet organ quotas. At one time all you had to do was enter your tissue type on Ebay.cn.  If that is what they do to their own citizens,...

So who has something to gain?



 
Nemo888 said:
China did not support Al Qaeda or the Taliban publicly either. But we still had to bomb their embassy to send them a message.

Dude, there was never a US bombing of the Chinese embassy in Kabul; as Old Sweat mentionned, there was the accidental bombing of their embassy in Belgrade on May 7th 1999, but I'm quite certain the events in Afghanistan and the Belgrade bombing are unrelated.
 
Crap you're right. They were sending Yugoslav military transmissions and collecting intel on the cruise missile attacks.

Somehow I confused that with stories about the Chinese backdoor funding militants in Afghanistan. I thought we took action on them in Kabul. I think the rumours about funding were true, but with a brain fart like that who knows. I guess it shows that I wished we bombed them.
 
Nemo888 said:
Crap you're right. They were sending Yugoslav military transmissions and collecting intel on the cruise missile attacks.

No, the Chinese embassy in Belgrade was bombed by mistake. The intention was to bomb a Yugoslav Federal Directorate for Supply and Procurement building, some 180m away.
 
Even the public knows that story is BS.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/1999/oct/17/balkans

Nato bombed Chinese deliberately

Nato hit embassy on purpose
Kosovo: special report

Nato deliberately bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade during the war in Kosovo after discovering it was being used to transmit Yugoslav army communications.

According to senior military and intelligence sources in Europe and the US the Chinese embassy was removed from a prohibited targets list after Nato electronic intelligence (Elint) detected it sending army signals to Milosevic's forces.

The story is confirmed in detail by three other Nato officers - a flight controller operating in Naples, an intelligence officer monitoring Yugoslav radio traffic from Macedonia and a senior headquarters officer in Brussels. They all confirm that they knew in April that the Chinese embassy was acting as a 'rebro' [rebroadcast] station for the Yugoslav army (VJ) after alliance jets had successfully silenced Milosevic's own transmitters.

The Chinese were also suspected of monitoring the cruise missile attacks on Belgrade, with a view to developing effective counter-measures against US missiles.

The intelligence officer, who was based in Macedonia during the bombing, said: 'Nato had been hunting the radio transmitters in Belgrade. When the President's [Milosevic's] residence was bombed on 23 April, the signals disappeared for 24 hours. When they came on the air again, we discovered they came from the embassy compound.' The success of previous strikes had forced the VJ to use Milosevic's residence as a rebroadcast station. After that was knocked out, it was moved to the Chinese embassy. The air controller said: 'The Chinese embassy had an electronic profile, which Nato located and pinpointed.'

The Observer investigation, carried out jointly with Politiken newspaper in Denmark, will cause embarrassment for Nato and for the British government. On Tuesday, the Queen and the Prime Minister will host a state visit by the President of China, Jiang Zemin. He is to stay at Buckingham Palace.

Jiang Zemin is still said to be outraged at the 7 May attack, which came close to splitting the alliance.The official Nato line, as expressed by President Bill Clinton and CIA director George Tenet, was that the attack on the Chinese Embassy was a mistake. Defence Secretary William Cohen said: 'One of our planes attacked the wrong target because the bombing instructions were based on an outdated map.'

Later, a source in the US National Imagery and Mapping Agency said that the 'wrong map' story was 'a damned lie'.

Tenet apologised last July, saying: 'The President of the United States has expressed our sincere regret at the loss of life in this tragic incident and has offered our condolences to the Chinese people and especially to the families of those who lost their lives in this mistaken attack.

Nato's apology was predicated on the excuse that the three missiles which landed in one corner of the embassy block were meant to be targeted at the Yugoslav Federal Directorate for Supply and Procurement, the FDSP. But inquiries have revealed there never was a VJ directorate of supply and procurement at the site named by Tenet. The VJ office for supplies - which Tenet calls FDSP - is some 500 metres down the street from the address he gave. It was bombed later.

Moreover the CIA and other Nato intelligence agencies, such as Britain's MI6 and the code-breakers at GCHQ, would have listened in to communication traffic from the Chinese embassy as a matter of course since it moved to the site in 1996.

A Nato flight control officer in Naples also confirmed to us that a map of 'non-targets': churches, hospitals and embassies, including the Chinese, did exist. On this 'don't hit' map, the Chinese embassy was correctly located at its current site, and not where it had been until 1996 - as claimed by the US and NATO.

Why the Chinese were prepared to help Milosevic is a more murky question. One possible explanation is that the Chinese lack Stealth technology, and the Yugoslavs, having shot down a Stealth fighter in the early days of the air campaign, were in a good position to trade. The Chinese may have calculated that Nato would not dare strike its embassy, but the five-storey building was emptied every night of personnel. Only three people died in the attack, two of whom were, reportedly, not journalists - the official Chinese version - but intelligence officers.

The Chinese military attache, Ven Bo Koy, who was seriously wounded in the attack and is now in hospital in China, told Dusan Janjic, the respected president of Forum for Ethnic Relations in Belgrade, only hours before the attack, that the embassy was monitoring incoming cruise missiles in order to develop counter-measures.

Nato spokesman Lee McClenny yesterday stood by the official version. 'It was a terrible mistake,' he said, 'and we have apologised.' A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in London said yesterday: 'We do not believe that the embassy was bombed because of a mistake with an out-of-date map.'
 
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