North Korea (Superthread)

[Journeyman]

I remain fully convinced that China can and will reunify Korea, under a democratic South Korean led government, as soon as the US agrees to withdraw all its forces from the Korean Peninsula.

However, according to a former Thai Foreign Minister with experience in Pyongyang, upon asking how they would react to a complete withdrawal of US troops from South Korea, was told it would be an act of destabilisation -- a precursor to a US missile strike.

North Korea leads the world in its own form of freestyle, recreational psychoses.  :stars:

 

[57Chevy]

Their dumba$$ mini nuke (so to speak) is likely to have caused a 5.1 earthquake according to the USGS.

A 4.9 magnitude earthquake was felt in North Korea with the epicenter supposedly near known North Korean nuclear test sites. Which means, the earthquake—which is unnatural to the region—was probably caused by North Korea detonating a nuke. This would be the third time North Korea has performed a nuclear test—the other times being in 2006 and 2009. The 2006 test brought a 3.9 magnitude earthquake while the 2009 nuclear test bumped the region with a 4.5 magnitude earthquake. Link is shared with provisions of The Copyright Act

Just putting this out there,
I am wondering if it is their real intent.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister on nuke test:  BAAAAAAAAD North Korea!

Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird today issued the following statement:

“The North Korean regime’s reckless disregard for the global will is again on display.

“This test—North Korea’s third—is provocative and marks a serious, misguided threat to regional peace and security.

“What makes such actions even more unconscionable is the fact that the North Korean people starve and are denied their basic human dignity while the Pyongyang regime squanders limited resources.

“While we had hoped the passing of dictator Kim Jong-il would have closed a sad chapter in North Korea, we are disappointed that his son has continued the irresponsible path of placing weapons before the well-being of people.

“Canada will work with our international partners to pursue all appropriate actions and sanctions against the rogue regime in North Korea.”

 

[OldSolduer]

Pesky little critters aren't they?

Where are they getting their fissionable material? China?

 

[Edward Campbell]

Pesky little critters aren't they?

Where are they getting their fissionable material? China?

Nope, not a chance ... from Arabs or Iranians, most likely, to whom, in turn, it was, improperly supplied (that is to say without the government's permission) by Russian criminals, AKA poverty stricken generals and scientists.

 

[Journeyman]

I suspect that China is getting increasingly....miffed...with North Korea.

Less and less are they a useful, somewhat compliant buffer against the Americans, South Koreans, and Japanese.  They're increasingly a burden, politically and economically (although the trade tends to go one way), and I suspect that China is a little concerned with an influx of starving, armed North Korean refugees crossing the Yalu and Tumen Rivers.

 

[57Chevy]

Pesky little critters aren't they?

Where are they getting their fissionable material? China?

North Korea has 8 industrial-scale uranium mining and plants for milling, refining, and converting uranium;
it also has a fuel fabrication plant, a nuclear reactor, and a reprocessing plant—in short, everything needed to produce Pu-239.

How North Korea Makes Nuclear Bombs From Scratch is shared with provisions of The Copyright Act

see also (PDF) at link

 

[Edward Campbell]

I suspect that China is getting increasingly....miffed...with North Korea.

Less and less are they a useful, somewhat compliant buffer against the Americans, South Koreans, and Japanese.  They're increasingly a burden, politically and economically (although the trade tends to go one way), and I suspect that China is a little concerned with an influx of starving, armed North Korean refugees crossing the Yalu and Tumen Rivers.

Very true, security is tight on the China/DPRK border ~ DPRK is not a compliant client state. There are persistent rumours that China "owns" a small/modest/large/overwhelming share of the North Korean generals and senior officials but no one is saying that China could - or would - stage a coup (à la the US managed coup that overthrew Vietnamese President Ngô Đình Diệm in 1963) but that is, probably the only way out for China.

But China's overarching aim is to get major US military forces off the Asian mainland and they will put up with a lot of sass from te North Korean's while they wait for that to happen. Despite the very occasional kidnapping by North Korean border guards of a Chinese citizen who gets too close to the border, the DPRK is more annoyance than a real threat to Chinese interests.

 

[a_majoor]

Building a nuclear device is actually not all that difficult. There are even relatively simple and well known ways to turn Uranium Hexaflouride into the pure metal. The only "difficult" steps (difficult meaning you need a pretty sophisticated industrial plant to do so) involve enrichment of the Uranium to "weapons grade".

If you are not too focused on worker safety, you could even potentially create the device in a fairly well equipped workshop, although the neighbours might start wondering why the cat's hair is falling out in clumps and all the plants are dying.

Rocket science is also relatively simple (the "rocket equations" were independently discovered in Tsarist Russia, Germany and the United States, and all three nations had powerful home built rockets on the go by the end of the 1920's. Even the technology can be pretty robust and idiot proof; German A-4 [V-2] rockets were built on an assembly line by slave labour and tended to be fairly reliable). Going for improved performance by decreasing margins with lighter designs, or adding stress to the design with more powerful engines is generally why rockets fail; they are too close to the margins.

So we should not be surprised when nations like the DPRK, Pakistan and potentially Iran become capable of building nuclear weapons and rockets to deliver them out of their own resources. The only "good" thing is this consumes lots of resources that could be used for other things, so perhaps we should be careful what we wish for.

 

[cupper]

My understanding is that the two most difficult issues are getting the explosives package to function properly so that you have a completely symmetrical blast wave, depending on the type of trigger you use.

And the other problem is miniaturizing the the full package to a reasonable sized payload for your missile system to carry, yet still achieve sufficient yield.

 

[a_majoor]

As always, the type of constraints you are willing to accept determine the outcome.

If I don't want to screw around with a symmetric explosion I can go for a uranium "gun" bomb. Depending on the yield I am willing to accept, I can make the physics package fairly compact and change the parameters of the yield by adjusting "other" things. (to make a bomb that is light and powerful requires some sophistication, but I can easily make a light and weak bomb, or a heavy and powerful one). If my weapons delivery system is a couple of guys in a van, I can make a pretty crude device that still will be highly effective. You can also see the evolution of the devices by looking at rockets and bombers; the B-36 was nicknamed "the aluminum cloud" because it needed to carry a singular nuclear weapon the size of a semitrailer. Rockets like the Atlas and Titan were needed to carry early generation weapons, but now much smaller ICBMs and SLBMs can carry multiple warheads in a single launch. (About the only exception to this trend was the SS-18 from the USSR. My understanding was these were needed to loft massive 20MT warheads in order to turn Cheyenne Mountain into Cheyenne lake...)

So as long as relatively poor nations are willing to accept sub optimal outcomes in order to have a nuclear weapon, then it is entirely possible for them to do so.

 

[cupper]

Very true.

The question is what is Pyong Yang planning for?

Deter other nuclear armed powers?

Strike at the South? The US?

Supply it to an interested third party?

or more realistically use it as a bargaining chip for more credibility.

These would be partial drivers for the overall design options as you outlined in your discussion.

 

[a_majoor]

An interesting peak into the mindset of the DPRK. As the author notes, it will be a challenge to re integrate these people into the community of nations given their indoctrination:

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/02/06/matt-gurney-happiness-is-raining-missiles-on-your-american-enemies-from-space/

Matt Gurney: Happiness is raining missiles on your American enemies from space

    Matt Gurney | Feb 6, 2013 12:10 PM ET | Last Updated: Feb 6, 2013 12:29 PM ET
    More from Matt Gurney | @mattgurney
   
    As dangerous as North Korea is, and it’s plenty dangerous, and as brutal as it is to its own people, and it’s plenty brutal, it also has to be the most amusingly bizarre nation on Earth. I challenge anyone to watch the recent propaganda video uploaded by a state-controlled website and not have at least a few moments of genuine laughter at its absurdity.

    To call the video (above) bizarre doesn’t do it justice. It will sound absurd even in the description, but in short, it’s about a happy North Korea astronaut having a wonderful dream. In the dream, he blasts off into orbit on some kind of space plane. Once in the heavens, he swoops around, leaving colourful contrails (I am reasonably certain that does not actually happen in space). He orbits the Earth at great altitudes, and looks out at our beautiful blue marble. He sees, from high above, the joyous celebrations of all Koreans as the peninsula is reunited (under North Korean rule, of course).

    Related

        North Korea releases rocket-launch video that shows a New York-like city in flames
        North Korea warns of ‘dark cloud of war’ as South begins naval drills ahead of ‘imminent’ nuclear test

    It’s all so wonderful and happy, set to the music from supergroup USA for Africa’s hit “We Are The World.”

    Oh, I forgot one part of the wonderful, relaxing, blissful dream sequence — the part where our contented space traveller rains missiles and death down upon a major American metropolis.

        Attempting anything like a serious analysis of this video is a challenge

    You have to see it for yourself. The description above doesn’t do it justice. The video treats bombarding the city as another great moment in the amazing life of the world’s luckiest man. (And it’s been brought to my attention by a colleague that the scenes of the attack were actually ripped off from the computer game Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 — you can see the clip they stole here). The soundtrack doesn’t even switch over to something more martial or even tense. The weirdly low-tempo piano version of “We Are The World” never misses a beat.

    Call me twisted, but watching the video, I couldn’t help but rewrite the lyrics to the song in my head. I came up with this:

    We are the world
    We are the children
    Sometimes it’s really nice
    To flatten a city

    Look, it works when you sing it, OK? (For your reference, I assumed it would have been Michael Jackson singing that part.)

    Attempting anything like a serious analysis of this video is a challenge, but here goes: As odd as the video is, it is interesting as an insight into the North Korean mindset. The country has of late been attempting to launch satellites into space, including two launches last year. (In the first, the rocket failed; in the second, the rocket worked, but the satellite seems to have been a dud).

        The darker meaning is the message that raining destruction down upon an American city wouldn’t be an act of barbarity

    It is widely believed in the West that the satellite launches are mere cover for ballistic missile tests, as the technological differences between a rocket that can launch a satellite into space and a missile that can drop a nuclear warhead on a city are relatively minor. North Korea denies this and insists that it is pursuing a traditional space program, as befits a nation of its (self-assured) prestige and stature. A video of a North Korean astronaut, aboard an advanced spacecraft, suggests that, if nothing else, the North Koreans are selling the fantasy of North Korea space voyagers to their own people, not just a skeptical West.

    And the darker meaning, related to that, is the message that raining destruction down upon an American city wouldn’t be an act of barbarity, or even an unfortunate duty to be carried out by saddened military men. Killing Americans, instead, is a pleasure, something to be celebrated and proud of.

    Sooner or later, North Korea will fall, and the country’s population will be integrated into the broader global community. Videos like this show how incredibly difficult a process that will be, for the North Koreans themselves most of all.

And an inforgraphic as well:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/02/13/graphic-dprk-intentions/

 

[57Chevy]

And now as the saga continues, the so-called North Korean diplomat Jon Yong Ryong so undiplomatically
heralds the final destruction of South Korea, and compares his leader Kim Jong-il to a new born puppy. (Good one Jon)  :facepalm:
Maybe they should worry more about how they so blatantly pissed off the dragon, their longtime provider.


North Korea threatens 'final destruction' of South at UN
Article from The Associated Press dated 19 Feb is shared with provisions of The Copyright Act

 

[Edward Campbell]

The, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Financial Times is as close to anything official that I have seen or that we are likely to see out of China, and it is bad news for the DPRK:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9e2f68b2-7c5c-11e2-99f0-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2M98C5gov

China should abandon North Korea
Beijing would be wise to give up on wayward Pyongyang, writes Deng Yuwen
By Deng Yuwen

February 27, 2013

North Korea’s third nuclear test is a good moment for China to re-evaluate its longstanding alliance with the Kim dynasty. For several reasons, Beijing should give up on Pyongyang and press for the reunification of the Korean peninsula.

First, a relationship between states based on ideology is dangerous. If we were to choose our allies on ideology alone, China’s relationship with the west today would not exist. Although both countries are socialist, their differences are much larger than those between China and the west.

Second, basing China’s strategic security on North Korea’s value as a geopolitical ally is outdated. Even if North Korea was a useful friend during the cold war, its usefulness today is doubtful. Just imagine if the US, because of Pyongyang’s development of nuclear weapons, came to see North Korea as a grave threat to its national security and launched a pre-emptive attack on it. Would China not be obliged to help North Korea based on our “alliance”? Would that not be drawing fire upon ourselves? If so, what useful “buffer” would be left to speak of? China’s own strength and openness will be its most reliable safeguard.

Third, North Korea will not reform and open up to the world. The international community once hoped that Kim Jong-eun would push reforms after taking power in 2011, and North Korea seemed to show signs of such a move. But even if he personally had the will to push small-scale reform, the country’s ruling group would absolutely not allow him to do so. Once the door of reform opened, the regime could be overthrown. Why should China maintain relations with a regime and a country that will face failure sooner or later?

Fourth, North Korea is pulling away from Beijing. The Chinese like to view their relationship with Pyongyang through their shared sacrifice during the Korean war instead of reality. They describe it as a “friendship sealed in blood”. But North Korea does not feel like this at all towards its neighbour.

As early as the 1960s, North Korea rewrote the history of the war. To establish the absolute authority of Kim Il-sung, its founder, North Korea removed from historical record the contribution of the hundreds of thousands of sons and daughters of China who sacrificed themselves to beat the UN troops back to the 38th parallel that now divides the peninsula. Many cemeteries commemorating the volunteer soldier heroes have been levelled, and Kim Il-sung was given all the credit for the offensive. For the North Korean people, shaking off the “Chinese bond” was seen as an expression of independence and autonomy.

Last, once North Korea has nuclear weapons, it cannot be ruled out that the capricious Kim regime will engage in nuclear blackmail against China. According to Xue Litai of Stanford University, during former US president Bill Clinton’s 2009 visit to Pyongyang, the North Koreans blamed the poverty of their economy on China’s “selfish” strategy and American sanctions. Kim Jong-il, then leader, hinted that the motive for withdrawing from six-party talks on his country’s arms programme was to free Pyongyang from Beijing. It was not directed against the US. He suggested that if Washington held out a helping hand, North Korea could become its strongest fortress against China. And Pyongyang revealed it could use a nuclear arsenal to coerce China.

North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons is, in part, based on the illusion that it can achieve an equal negotiating position with the US, and thereby force Washington to compromise. But it is entirely possible that a nuclear-armed North Korea could try to twist China’s arm if Beijing were to fail to meet its demands or if the US were to signal goodwill towards it.

Considering these arguments, China should consider abandoning North Korea. The best way of giving up on Pyongyang is to take the initiative to facilitate North Korea’s unification with South Korea. Bringing about the peninsula’s unification would help undermine the strategic alliance between Washington, Tokyo and Seoul; ease the geopolitical pressure on China from northeast Asia; and be helpful to the resolution of the Taiwan question.

The next best thing would be to use China’s influence to cultivate a pro-Beijing government in North Korea, to give it security assurances, push it to give up nuclear weapons and start moving towards the development path of a normal country.

The writer is deputy editor of Study Times, the journal of the Central Party School of the Communist Party of China

Cultivating a pro-Beijing government in North Korea is, essentially, saying that Kim Jong-un should be deposed and that is almost the same as Deng Yuwen's preferred option: reunification under Seoul's political direction. I believe this - reunification - is a "standing offer" to Seoul and Washington but it has one firm conditon: American troops must leave Korea and, eventually, must leave the the Asian mainland (which means a small contingent in Thailand must go, too).

 

[AJFitzpatrick]

Well, even if China dumps North Korea there is always Dennis Rodman

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/basketball/nba/story/2013/03/01/sp-hbo-basketball-north-korea-kim-jong-un-dennis-rodman.html

 

[tomahawk6]

USA Today seems to think the recent nuclear test was done to test a nuclear weapon for Iran.Hope not,but if true its a huge problem for the world.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2013/02/27/iran-north-korea-nuclear-bomb/1952273/

 

[57Chevy]

This could also go into the Iran superthread as it does apply.

USA Today seems to think the recent nuclear test was done to test a nuclear weapon for Iran.Hope not,but if true its a huge problem for the world.

*From the Iran superthread

Iran’s ultimate trump card in its current showdown with the international community isn’t merely to close the Strait of Hormuz and choke off the world’s oil supply – it is to secretly test a nuclear device.
---
---
---
Don’t be surprised to wake up some morning soon to hear Iran has gone ahead with a nuclear test and is suddenly ready to reopen diplomatic talks with its critics.

From News Daily and shared with provisions of The Copyright Act

Iran nuclear talks show progress, Western diplomat says
By Adrian Croft, dated 28 Feb

Nuclear talks between Iran and world powers this week were more constructive and positive than in the past, but Iran's willingness to negotiate seriously will not become clear until an April meeting, a senior Western diplomat said on Thursday.

The diplomat was more upbeat about the talks in Kazakhstan than other Western officials have been, suggesting there could be a chance of diplomatic progress in the long standoff over Iran's nuclear activities.

"This was more constructive and more positive than previous meetings because they were really focusing on the proposal on the table," said the diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Iran's Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi struck an upbeat note about the talks, saying they had reached "a turning point" this week and suggesting a breakthrough was within reach.

Article continues at link...

*added

 

[Colin Parkinson]

(Reuters) - North Korea threatened on Tuesday to scrap an armistice that ended the 1950-53 civil war and sever a military "hotline" with the United States if South Korea and Washington pressed on with two-month-long war games.

It was a notable sharpening in the North's often bellicose rhetoric and followed word from U.N. diplomats that the United States and China had struck a tentative deal on a draft U.N. Security Council sanctions resolution that would punish North Korea for its third nuclear test, which it conducted last month.

"We will completely nullify the Korean armistice," the North's KCNA news agency said, quoting the Korean People's Army (KPA) Supreme Command spokesman.

"The war exercise being done by the United States and the puppet south Korea is a systematic act of destruction aimed at the Korean armistice."

The two Koreas remain technically at war since the 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce rather than a peace treaty.

"We will be suspending the activities of the KPA representative office at Panmunjom (truce village) that had been tentatively operated by our army as the negotiating body to establish a peace regime on the Korean peninsula," KCNA quoted the spokesman as saying.

"Related to that, we will be making the decision in parallel to cut off the Panmunjom DPRK-U.S. military hotline."

North Korea, officially called the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), has made much of hotlines with the South and the United States over the years, but has not been known ever to have used them in times of increased tension.

About 200,000 Korean troops and 10,000 U.S. forces are expected to be mobilized for their defensive "Foal Eagle" exercise, under the Combined Forces Command, which began on March 1 and goes on until the end of April. Separate computer-simulated drills called "Key Resolve" start on March 11.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, the U.N. diplomats said they hoped to receive the draft resolution on North Korea at Tuesday's council session. They added that they would like to see the council vote on the resolution by the end of this week.

"I hope to see a draft tomorrow perhaps, but you know it's up to the Americans," a diplomat told Reuters on condition of anonymity. Details of the draft were not immediately available.

The U.N. press office announced separately that Russia, which holds the presidency of the 15-nation Security Council this month, would convene closed-door consultations on North Korea at 11 a.m. EST (1600 GMT) in New York on Tuesday.

CHINA ASKS FOR "PRUDENT" RESPONSE

China's Foreign Ministry declined to confirm that it had reached a deal with the United States.

"We have said many times that China supports an appropriate response from the U.N. Security Council and have also expressed our stance that we oppose North Korea conducting its nuclear test," spokeswoman Hua Chunying told reporters.

"At the same time, we are resolute in believing that the relevant response has to be prudent and moderate, has to prevent an escalation, be conducive to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, prevent nuclear proliferation and maintain the peace and stability of Northeast Asia."

Council diplomats have said that they would like to strengthen the provisions in previous sanctions resolutions adopted after North Korea's 2006 and 2009 nuclear tests - above all those related to the inspection and seizure of shipments of banned items and toughening financial restrictions.

The U.N. Security Council strongly condemned North Korea's third nuclear test, on February 12, and vowed to take action against Pyongyang for an act denounced by all major world powers, including ally China.

Pyongyang said at the time that the test was an act of self-defense against "U.S. hostility" and threatened stronger steps if necessary.

In January the Security Council passed a resolution expanding U.N. sanctions against North Korea due to its December rocket launch and warned Pyongyang against further launches or nuclear tests. North Korea responded by threatening a new atomic detonation, which it then carried out the following month.

North Korea's previous nuclear tests prompted the Security Council to impose sanctions that included a ban on the import of nuclear and missile technology, an arms embargo and a ban on luxury goods imports.

There are 17 North Korean entities, including banks and trading companies, on the U.N. blacklist, and nine individuals - all linked to North Korea's nuclear and missile programs. U.N. diplomats say many more entities and individuals could be subject to international asset freezes and travel bans.

Beijing has supported all previous sanctions resolutions against Pyongyang but only after working hard to dilute proposed measures in negotiations on the texts. It has been concerned that tougher sanctions could further weaken the North's economy and prompt refugees to flood into China.

(Additional reporting by Sui-Lee Wee in BEIJING and Jack Kim in SEOUL; Writing by Nick Macfie)

 

[The Bread Guy]

Some of the latest:

• UN slaps on more sanctions following N.Korea's latest nuke blast.
• North Korea (threatens to pull out of/pulls out of?) 1953 Armistice agreement - sabre-rattling statements via the official news agency attached.

FYI, the "Taeyonphyong Island" the first attached statement says the Dear Leader "feast(ed) his eyes on .... with keen attention" is the one that caught some N.Korean artillery shells in late 2010 (usual Wikipedia caveats apply).