North Korea (Superthread)

[Old Sweat]

I would suggest that NK would not use its relatively limited number of "weak" bombs on the battlefield. Without getting too technical, in theatre terms a nuclear warhead is a point weapon, even if the point may be in the nature of several square kilometres. Having grown up in an army that trained and planned to fight a tactical nuclear war in Europe, and having been trainined in nuclear weapons employment analysis, let me add that a major principle is to avoid concentrating so as to make an attractive nuclear target. At the same time, your aim is to force the enemy to concentrate. Nuclear warheads small enough to be fired from tube artillery are limited in their yield - nuke speak for destructive power usually measure in thousands of tons of TNT or KT. Thus a 155mm nuclear round might have a yield of no more than .5 or at the most 1 KT. For comparisons sake, the device used at Hiroshima is supposed to have had a yield of 20 KT, although I have seen different figures. For a small warhead one needs accurate intelligence re the target and its location. The prospect of literally tens if not hundreds of tactical nuclear weapons being fired back and forth is conceivable in a Strangelovian sort of way, but is almost guaranteed to lead to escalation. In my opinion it is not really a feasible option for sane opponents. The question is the NK leadership sane by our standards?

This is moot, because NK as far as I know only has a limited arsenal. (I also believe the US has disposed of its tactical nucelar arsenal, or that is what has been reported.) In my opinion, given the weapons and delivery means it possesses, NK would be more likely to target major population centres, and would probably make sure this was known by its potential enemies. If it has several Hiroshima-yield type warheads, even with crude delivery systems it potentially still could devastate South Korea's population and economy. It is not too much to estimate fatal casualties in six or even seven figures and a world wide economic stagger, if not a collapse.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I would suggest that NK would not use its relatively limited number of "weak" bombs on the battlefield. Without getting too technical, in theatre terms a nuclear warhead is a point weapon, even if the point may be in the nature of several square kilometres. Having grown up in an army that trained and planned to fight a tactical nuclear war in Europe, and having been trainined in nuclear weapons employment analysis, let me add that a major principle is to avoid concentrating so as to make an attractive nuclear target. At the same time, your aim is to force the enemy to concentrate. Nuclear warheads small enough to be fired from tube artillery are limited in their yield - nuke speak for destructive power usually measure in thousands of tons of TNT or KT. Thus a 155mm nuclear round might have a yield of no more than .5 or at the most 1 KT. For comparisons sake, the device used at Hiroshima is supposed to have had a yield of 20 KT, although I have seen different figures. For a small warhead one needs accurate intelligence re the target and its location. The prospect of literally tens if not hundreds of tactical nuclear weapons being fired back and forth is conceivable in a Strangelovian sort of way, but is almost guaranteed to lead to escalation. In my opinion it is not really a feasible option for sane opponents. The question is the NK leadership sane by our standards?

This is moot, because NK as far as I know only has a limited arsenal. (I also believe the US has disposed of its tactical nucelar arsenal, or that is what has been reported.) In my opinion, given the weapons and delivery means it possesses, NK would be more likely to target major population centres, and would probably make sure this was known by its potential enemies. If it has several Hiroshima-yield type warheads, even with crude delivery systems it potentially still could devastate South Korea's population and economy. It is not too much to estimate fatal casualties in six or even seven figures and a world wide economic stagger, if not a collapse.

I agree with you re: using nuclear weapons; for those who find them unthinkable I say: "Go visit Hiroshima and Nagasaki." Both were attacked with relatively low yield nukes and both 'survived.'

My WAG - wild arsed guess is that NK, IF it has the means - delivery systems, will aim for Seoul with the one, two or three warheads it has. This will be a miscalculation on their part but, as far as I can see, it is the only sane way to use nukes - against the highest value target. But: This will stop the war because China will, then - but only then, intervene to "prevent further bloodshed." A fairly large Chinese force - larger than anything the US can deliver to the Asian mainland in anything less than several months - will, quickly (weeks), occupy NK and parts of SK as the de facto protector of a united Korea.

I repeat my estimate of China's aims in Korea:

1. USA out - off the Asian mainland;

2. Korea united under a democratic SK led government; and

3. Korean reconstruction funded by SK.

A non-nuclear war that entangles the USA may be in China's interests. I'm not sure that the USA can get enough people and equipment into Korea (even as it tries to evacuate 150,000 US citizens and hundreds of thousands of others) in time to help the SK forces withstand a short sharp, but HUGE onslaught from the North. The North wins the war if it captures Seoul and drives the allied forces a few kms out/South of Seoul and puts them on the defensive. China, then, need not intervene militarily; it can act as a political peacemaker, forcing unification, initially - but not for long - under NK and forcing the US out.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Hence my idea to station some kind of weapon off the 200 mile mark and shoot down anything NK launches.  Like UMO points out, isn't it better to deal with this today than in 15 years?  NK leadership has pretty much prove itself to be insane, we can't really take an educated guess at how they will fight or what they will target using logic or common sense.

I don't want nuclear war but I also don't like having someone pointing a revolver at my head and playing with the hammer back and forth.

Maybe we could let wikileaks "leak" information that NK is actually our Allie and we're hiding our infidel nuclear weapons there- let NK deal with some suicide bombers for a while.

 

[OldSolduer]

This problem could have been dealt with many years ago, BUT our lace panty folk didn't want to. Hence we have a tin pot dictator of dubious sanity, threatening his fellow Koreans.

 

[Nemo888]

This problem could have been dealt with many years ago, BUT our lace panty folk didn't want to. Hence we have a tin pot dictator of dubious sanity, threatening his fellow Koreans.

The time to attack was '98. 10% plus of the population had died from famine in the previous 4 years, the border was the most porous it has ever been and the power vacuum that Kim Il-Sung left when he died was yet to be properly filled. Now things have gotten back to "normal". Best to wait for Kim Jong-il to pass away or the next major famine.

DPRK's main weapon is controlling the information that gets put into citizens heads. They spend 25% of GDP on defense and the Army are treated better than other citizens. Fighting them militarily makes little sense. Why lose the initiative by entering a scenario they have been preparing for the last 50 years? Seasoned warriors keep the initiative and do not let their enemies make them react. If your enemy is wearing a helmet kick him in the balls.  Punching him in the head like he wants will just break your hand. Info ops would cost less and have more effect. Remember also that the brainwashed masses of DPRK are not our enemies. They are just fodder protecting the few thousand elite which a coup could have strung up on street poles in a week.

 

[Brasidas]

This problem could have been dealt with many years ago, BUT our lace panty folk didn't want to. Hence we have a tin pot dictator of dubious sanity, threatening his fellow Koreans.

Bull.

It's not just not wanting to fight, and the immediate, primary threat isn't North Korea's handful of weak nukes. It's the artillery.

The minute the shooting starts, Seoul's toast.  Doesn't matter if the North Koreans get surprised, that artillery's not going to get surpressed short of killing one hell of a lot of South Korean civilians.

Waiting out until the North starts looking like it can be a threat to something other than Seoul's about more than just being a flaky pacifist.

 

[Nemo888]

Good point Brasidas.

Seoul itself is 10 million people and the surrounding National Capital Area is 24.5 million. About half of South Korea's population. All within the reach of DPRK artillery. Without Seoul there is no economy to pay for the reintegration of the Koreas. There is more to winning wars than shooting folk.

 

[57Chevy]

What is wrong with the attached photo ?
____________________________________________________________________________________________

South Korea army to hold huge drill, North silent
article link

SEOUL - South Korea announced land and sea military exercises on Wednesday including its largest-ever live-fire drill near North Korea just as tension on the peninsula was beginning to ease after Pyongyang's attack on a southern island.

The land drill, involving three dozen mobile artillery guns, six fighter jets, multiple launch rocket systems and 800 troops, the largest number of personnel in a single peace-time exercise, will take place on Thursday and is likely irritate the North.

The scale of the drill and the timing, coming right after the tensely staged a live-fire exercise on Monday, indicate South Korea's conservative President Lee Myung-bak sees more political mileage in taking a tough military stance rather than reverting to dialogue, despite overtures from Pyongyang.

Lee's government was heavily criticized at home for a perceived weak response to North Korea's shelling of the southern island of Yeonpyeong last month.

"We'll be sure to deal a punishing blow if the North tries to repeat the kind of situation like the artillery shelling of Yeonpyeong," Brigadier General Ju Eun-shik said in a statement.

article continues at link.....read more

Photo:
South Korean marines patrol on Yeonpyeong island, South Korea held further live-fire drills on Yeonpyeong Island on Monday, raising fears of all-out war, but the North did not retaliate. Instead, it offered to accept nuclear inspectors it has kicked out of the country before.
Photograph by: Lee Sang-hak/Yonhap, Reuters
                      (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)

 

[larry Strong]

What is wrong with the attached photo ?

They all appear to have their hands over the muzzle of their weapons.

 

[57Chevy]

N.Korea says ready to fight 'holy war' using nuclear deterrent
article link

SEOUL - North Korea's minister of armed forces said on Thursday its military was prepared to wage a "holy war" against the South using its nuclear deterrent after what he called Seoul's attempt to initiate conflict.

Minister Kim Yong-chun repeated Pyongyang's charge that the South had been preparing to start a war by conducting live-fire drills off the west coast, speaking at a rally to mark leader Kim Jong-il's rise to the country's top military post 19 years ago.

He was quoted by North Korea's KCNA news agency which regularly threatens the South but which had up to now been relatively restrained in its criticism of the miltiary drills.

                      (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)

 

[Jarnhamar]

Bull.

It's not just not wanting to fight, and the immediate, primary threat isn't North Korea's handful of weak nukes. It's the artillery.

The minute the shooting starts, Seoul's toast.  Doesn't matter if the North Koreans get surprised, that artillery's not going to get surpressed short of killing one hell of a lot of South Korean civilians.

Waiting out until the North starts looking like it can be a threat to something other than Seoul's about more than just being a flaky pacifist.

What about targetting the artillery.

 

[Old Sweat]

What about targetting the artillery.

According to press reports I have seen, the NK artillery is protected inside bunkers and emplacements dug through mountains. The sheer number of guns also provides a degree of protection, like a school of bait fish.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Obviously a job for space marines

 

[Nemo888]

You can get more done with balloons than bombs at the present time.

The thousands of dvd's, tiny radios, Chinese Won($), bits of food and pamphlets telling North Korean citizens everything they are told is lies are like acid to the regime. I would  sponsor sending such balloons myself if I knew how. This is how you screw with DPRK.

I read a good testimonial of a defector from the DPRK. (Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea. Why do the worst dictators always use Democratic in their countries name? Always wondered about that.) He was a soldier and his buddy got an American made nail clipper. They all marveled at how well it cut. So precise and clean. Like nothing they had seen before. After that he thought about how well made America weapons must be. He defected a few months later. 

Another story  was of a ship captain that heard a South Korean sitcom broadcast  in which two women were fighting over a parking spot. A country with so many cars that there was no place to put them. Driven by young women. Young women can afford cars WTF??? He defected. My idea here is that every North Korean you make have an epiphany about who their real enemy is becomes and agitaror against the regime.

The famine has also started again. The market reforms that were bringing in food have been rescinded by the State revealuing the currency 5 times. All old currency is made invalid and has to be exchanged for new DPRK dollars. But only about 30$ per  person would be exchanged. The rest being useless paper. Some people actually threw it into the street or burned it. Burning currency is a capital crime because Kim Il-Sung's portrait is printed on some bills. The black market for food and all the aspiring entrepreneurs were wiped out overnight. Chinese traders stopped all shipments and the famine restarted in days. Things are bad and no one believes the propaganda anymore. People only stay in line because they are afraid for their families. DPRK has a tainted blood policy whereby three generations of that blood line are tainted. Subject to labour camps or prison. Parents, uncles, children, grandchildren, cousins, all are subject to torture and death if you are disloyal.

 

[57Chevy]

We'll go nuclear, North warns South Korea

North Korea is prepared to wage a "holy war" against the south, including using its nuclear weapons, the country's armed forces minister warned on Thursday.

He issued the threat as South Korea staged a large show of force aimed at deterring further aggression by its volatile neighbour.

The North's defence chief, Kim Yong Chun, told a patriotic rally to celebrate the military achievements of the country's ailing dictator Kim Jong-il, that Pyongyang was "fully prepared to launch a sacred war" if the South encroached on its territory.

South Korea staged its largest military exercise of the year on Thursday exactly a month after a North Korean artillery bombardment against a South Korean island killed four, dramatically raising tensions on the peninsula.

The drills, conducted 30 miles south of the heavily armed border dividing North and South Korea, included around 800 troops, tanks, armoured personnel carriers, F15 fighter jets, artillery, multiple long-range rockets and helicopter gunships.

article link

Photo:
Two F-15K fighter jets drop bombs on a mountain target during the largest joint air and ground military exercises on the Seungjin Fire Training Field in mountainous Pocheon, 30 kilometres south of the tense land border with North Korea on December 23, 2010.
Photograph by: Wally Santana, AFP/Getty Images

                      (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)

 

[GAP]

S Korea and China defence chiefs to meet amid tension
Article Link
26 December 2010

South Korean and Chinese defence ministers are to meet in Beijing in February amid rising tension on the Korean peninsula, Seoul has said.

It provided no details of the talks, but the two sides are expected to discuss what Seoul describes as North Korea's hostile acts in recent months.

These include the deadly shelling of a South Korean border island.

China, the North's only major ally, is facing mounting pressure to encourage Pyongyang to show more restraint.
TV boast

On Sunday, defence officials said that South Korea's Defence Minister Kim Kwan-jin and his Chinese counterpart Liang Guanglie were organising talks in the Chinese capital in February, but added that details of the meeting agenda would be discussed later.

However, South Korea's Yonhap news agency quoted a defence ministry official in Seoul as saying the two ministers would "discuss regional security issues like the North's attack on the Cheonan warship and bombing on Yeonpyeong island".

The official - who was not named - was referring to the sinking of the vessel and deaths of 46 sailors in March, which Seoul has said was a torpedo attack by Pyongyang, and also the shelling of the Yeonpyeong island last month that left four South Koreans dead.

Pyongyang denies the South's claim that it sank the warship. It also says its shelling of the island was retaliation for a South Korean firing drill that dropped shells into North Korean territory.

Earlier this week, Seoul and Pyongyang again traded strong rhetoric.

The North threatened a "sacred war" against the South, whose military had been holding live-fire drills near the border. In response, the South warned of a "powerful response" to any attack from the North.
More on link

 

[Nemo888]

During the coldest winter in 30 years, with a prolonged and worsening famine, it looks like the the new emperor in waiting has no support from the military. The maneuvering that made Kim Jong-Il's sister a general a few months ago foreshadowed trouble. She is well known for assassinating enemies of the family(and being a raging alcoholic). Elder Kim knew his son would not be accepted. She purged the top brass. But it looks like it was not enough to keep everyone in line. Someone derailed his train of birthday goodies in Sinuiju. I can't remember anything like this since the entire DPRK 6th Army was disappeared for planning a coup. They were stationed in the city of Sinuiju when they were disbanded. Revolt is in the air in the Northern provinces. This is going to get interesting. The Kim monarchy may need a war to avoid being strung up on Pyongyang's street lamps. We need to let the DPRK's military know we are ready for brutal war so they turn on the Kims, but somehow make friendly overtures at the same time. Perhaps amnesty for brass who take part in the coup?

http://www.torontosun.com/news/world/2010/12/27/16679661.html

Train carrying gifts for N.Korea heir derailed

By Sylvia Westall and Jack Kim, Reuters


SEOUL -- A train packed with birthday gifts for North Korea's leader-in-waiting Kim Jong-un derailed this month in a possible act of sabotage, a Seoul-based radio station which broadcasts across the border reported on Monday.

Open Radio for North Korea, a non-profit station which often cites sources in the reclusive, impoverished North, said the train laden with gifts including televisions and watches came off the rails on Dec. 11 near North Korea's border with China.

"The security service has been in an emergency situation because a train departing Sinuiju and headed for Pyongyang derailed on Dec. 11," the radio station quoted a source in the security service in North Phyongan province as saying.

The city of Sinuiju is a North Korean trading gateway.

"The tracks and rail beds are so old it is possible there was decay in the wood or nails that secured the tracks could have been dislodged but the extent of damage to the tracks and the timing of the incident points to a chance that someone intentionally damaged the tracks," the source said.

"It's highly likely that it was someone who is opposed to succession to Kim Jong-un," the source said, according to the radio station.

Very little is known about Kim Jong-un, the youngest son of ailing leader Kim Jong-il. In his mid-20s, he was appointed to key military and government positions this year, suggesting that he is the chosen successor. His birthday is believed to be Jan. 8.

His father appears to have lavish tastes. This month a Viennese court found an Austrian man guilty of selling luxury goods believed to be destined for Kim Jong-il in a yacht deal worth 3.3 million euros. The deal included several top-end Mercedes-Benz S-Class cars and musical instruments such as a Steinway grand piano, the court heard.

The sale of luxury goods to North Korea is banned under a U.N. resolution in response to the country's nuclear testing program but Kim is said to hold opulent receptions where he displays yachts and other expensive items procured abroad.

 

[gun runner]

And yet his people starve...sad.

 

[Nemo888]

Nothing says Commie like 630$ a bottle Hennessy Cognac while you citizens starve. He spends about 700,000$ a year on it.

 

[IBM]

Nothing says Commie like 630$ a bottle Hennessy Cognac while you citizens starve. He spends about 700,000$ a year on it.

Oh I don't know, maybe one day Li'Kim will feel generous enough to share a bottle with one of his starving slaves countrymen. ;D

Then again a bottle of cognac doesn't really do much when you are starving to death...