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New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy

  • Thread starter Thread starter GAP
  • Start date Start date
Our ships are not strictly suited, or deployed, to domestic operations. We have numerous NATO and international obligations that we are required to perform. We need ships suited for those obligations.

That means proper warships, not the little ships of Dunkirk.
 
Chris Pook said:
Our ships need legs and need to ride the Atlantic comfortably

Hopefully this isn't the minimum standard.  A comfortable ride in the Atlantic could be pure hell in the Pacific

Unfortunately we will see a leaner more agile force and because the Liberals have a majority (thanks voters of Canada) they can do whatever the fuck they want and there is sweet fuck all we can do about it. 
 
Honestly we would need 300 BILLION to build what we would need to look after our domestic and international requirements properly and have the trained personnel to man them. Until we have a government that sees the value of a well funded Navy we will continue to limp along with bellow the bare minimum.
 
YZT580 said:
The vast majority of our commerce is shipped by sea.  If you consider the enormous cost to commerce that a rabble such as the Somali pirates were able to extract it doesn't take a great deal of imagination to extend those costs ten-fold with an organized group such as ISIS instead.  Are you going to let the Americans or Brits carry the weight of protecting our commerce or do we pitch in as equal partners?  You can't do that with coastal patrol and ASW vessels; they don't have the legs.  Waiting for the next war to build almost defeated us last time around.  The next war won't give us the time to build it will be fought with what we have in stock.

I don't think anybody is suggesting a ship that is strictly ASW capable and without any other capabilities.  But there's a big difference (cost-wise) between a ship equipped with a 57mm gun, a single 8-cell VLS-41 launcher for missile self-defence and a quad Harpoon launcher and an AAW destroyer with an Aegis-type radar, 32+ cells of VLS-41 launchers, SM-3 missiles for ballistic threats, Tomahawk cruise missiles for land attack, etc.

I think that the first type of vessel is likely more than capable of doing 90% of what we ask of it.
 
GR66 said:
I don't think anybody is suggesting a ship that is strictly ASW capable and without any other capabilities.  But there's a big difference (cost-wise) between a ship equipped with a 57mm gun, a single 8-cell VLS-41 launcher for missile self-defence and a quad Harpoon launcher and an AAW destroyer with an Aegis-type radar, 32+ cells of VLS-41 launchers, SM-3 missiles for ballistic threats, Tomahawk cruise missiles for land attack, etc.

I think that the first type of vessel is likely more than capable of doing 90% of what we ask of it.

Exactly.  It would also come much closer to fitting within our budget envelope.  Look to Australia as an example of what we can expect in costs.
 
What about Norway's newest frigate?  I think it's a really compelling design, given the relatively low cost of it.
 
GR66 said:
I don't think anybody is suggesting a ship that is strictly ASW capable and without any other capabilities.  But there's a big difference (cost-wise) between a ship equipped with a 57mm gun, a single 8-cell VLS-41 launcher for missile self-defence and a quad Harpoon launcher and an AAW destroyer with an Aegis-type radar, 32+ cells of VLS-41 launchers, SM-3 missiles for ballistic threats, Tomahawk cruise missiles for land attack, etc.

I think that the first type of vessel is likely more than capable of doing 90% of what we ask of it.

We need 4 of the AAW destroyers, and the rest general purpose.  Its just basic task group math.  One ship for C4ISR, AAW, etc... and the other two for general purpose action.  The AAW provides layered Air defence ability,  including the ability to target sub launched missiles from 120NM away, combined with the GP ships hunting the subs with their embarked helos and other sensors.  Add in Commodore level staffing and comms for the AAW ships.  If you want to hunt subs you need the AAW destroyer to coordinate.

I agree that Tomahawks are not required for Canada, and due to the nature of the VLS you need longer ones to load them IIRC.  For land attack its a simple matter of choosing a bigger gun for the GP's.  5" 60 would be a good choice as its proven and relatively cheap, or the new 76mm from Oto M.  Harpoon B can also ruin your day ashore (one was almost fired in anger by a CPF... true 2nd hand story... :subbies:) if need be.

All the new ships should have Aegis type radars though APAR is publicly the front runner.  No FCS needed, improves your comms bandwidth, can jam, harder to detect it operating vs background radiation, had redundancy built in and reduced radar X section.  And being solid state way less mechanical maint.  Its the way to go by far, and you can track and target more ships than the current STIR's system.
 
I'd be more than happy to to see 4 (or more) AAW ships to go along with a bunch of GP ships.  However, in light of our budget my personal opinion is that I'd prefer to see 12-15 GP "must have" ships and no AAW "would love to have" ships instead of 6 x GP ships and 4 x AAW ships.  I'd also be perfectly fine with having our Canadian shipyards focusing only on the GP ships and buying the 4 x AAW ships offshore piggybacked on another country's order to save some money.
 
We don't need Tomahawks, but isn't the Block II Harpoon capable of land attack? Might be a good happy medium.
 
Chief Stoker:
Honestly we would need 300 BILLION to build what we would need to look after our domestic and international requirements properly and have the trained personnel to man them. Until we have a government that sees the value of a well funded Navy we will continue to limp along with bellow the bare minimum.

Doing some math...

(12 x $3B [GP FF] + 3 x $4B [AD DD/FF]) x (1 [factor for capital acquisition] + 3 [factor for in-service support for 30 yrs] + 1.5 [factor for O&M for 30 yrs]) = $264B (CY)

Chief, round me up a bit and I'm in your corner...+/-  :nod:

If we're both still around in 2050, let's splice the main brace and see how close we came to the final expenditure.

Regards,
G2G
 
Good2Golf said:
Doing some math...

(12 x $3B [GP FF] + 3 x $4B [AD DD/FF]) x (1 [factor for capital acquisition] + 3 [factor for in-service support for 30 yrs] + 1.5 [factor for O&M for 30 yrs]) = $264B (CY)

Chief, round me up a bit and I'm in your corner...+/-  :nod:

If we're both still around in 2050, let's splice the main brace and see how close we came to the final expenditure.

Regards,
G2G

If 30 years of operating costs takes you to 2050, then the ships will be complete by 2020.  Either you're assuming away Canadian shipyards for the more efficient and productive ones in Korea, or your timeline is off... by a decade or more...
 
dapaterson said:
If 30 years of operating costs takes you to 2050, then the ships will be complete by 2020.  Either you're assuming away Canadian shipyards for the more efficient and productive ones in Korea, or your timeline is off... by a decade or more...

I was going to extrapolate at the 2/3 point, dapaterson.  There are some who would argue we use a 40-year, in which case, I would use 4x for ISS and 2.0 or O&M...empirically and extrapolarially-speaking, of course.  :nod:
 
Sounds about right G2G.

However, using your factors (i.e. 7 times cost @ 3b$ for GP and 4b$ for AAD), you get 336 b$ over 40 years, which averages to 8.4 b$/year.

Current annual defence expenditures are at 23 b$. Assuming the ships are ordered right now, they start hitting the water in 2025. Budget by then, at todays value but corrected for inflation is going to be $26.2 b$, so, on average, the new Navy would require a little less than one third of the budget.

This however, is with the current level of expenditure, which is 8 cents per tax dollar, and at the paltry level of 1% of GDP. So don't anyone here come and tell me that it's too expensive an undertaking for a country like Canada. IMHO we can easily support a Navy of 15 SCSC in the proportion of 3 AAD/12 GP ships if we want to.

And I am not even sure about the figures you use to start with. The Australian Hobarts can give a good estimate of cost of the AAD destroyers, and at 3 b$ each, would support a cost of 4 b$ in five to ten years. But GP forces are at about 1.2 b$ to 1.4 b$ now, so they would support a cost of about 2 to 2.5 B$ in ten to fifteen years in my estimation.
 
Just wait until the media starts adding the cost of the crew salaries into the price of operating the ships....over 20-40 years....like they did with the F-35.

(Or was it the PBO that did that with the F-35?)

I think the key aspect (which was touched on ages ago) was that the National Shipbuilding Strategy is a jobs and infrastructure program with a side-benefit being the production of (a few) ships.

How many ships depends on how deep the trough is, and how much is drawn into the pork-barrel, and how much is siphoned off into capability.

Ships are an incidental outcome of this program.

In my opinion.

 
OGBD, yes, updating my guess estimate to a 40-year program would bracket Chief Stoker's $300B nicely. 

I used numbers that were a "mix" (possibly Scotch and Rye-assisted) of Hobart, RN Type 45/26, Dutch LCF and...DDG1000  ;) in an effort to capture a range of "what ifs" for hull/CSI costs. 

Again, remember I once flopped around on VDQ for half a day and stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last week, but otherwise a ruck-humping pigeon, so I could be right out of 'er...  :nod:

Cheers
G2G
 
NavyShooter said:
Just wait until the media starts adding the cost of the crew salaries into the price of operating the ships....over 20-40 years....like they did with the F-35.

...

Difference between the two programmes:

1 Aircraft.  1 Seat
1 Ship.  Many Berths, and seats and galleys. 

What does the operating cost look like if the GP crew numbers drop from 225 to 100, or even 150?

The Navy can impact the number of hulls in a variety of ways.

I would rather build big ships (6000 tonnes) with small crews and reduced armaments that can be augmented than build small ships (1500 tonnes) that will always be limited in capabilities.
 
Oldgateboatdriver said:
Sounds about right G2G.

However, using your factors (i.e. 7 times cost @ 3b$ for GP and 4b$ for AAD), you get 336 b$ over 40 years, which averages to 8.4 b$/year.

Current annual defence expenditures are at 23 b$. Assuming the ships are ordered right now, they start hitting the water in 2025. Budget by then, at todays value but corrected for inflation is going to be $26.2 b$, so, on average, the new Navy would require a little less than one third of the budget.

This however, is with the current level of expenditure, which is 8 cents per tax dollar, and at the paltry level of 1% of GDP. So don't anyone here come and tell me that it's too expensive an undertaking for a country like Canada. IMHO we can easily support a Navy of 15 SCSC in the proportion of 3 AAD/12 GP ships if we want to.

...

OGBD - Isn't that one of the arguments used to support the F35?

Of course we can afford 15 SCSCs.  Of course we can afford 65 F35s.  Of course we can afford an Armoured Division with sealift and an Airborne Bde with airlift. And we could afford to do all those things at the same time.

But our fellow citizens choose not to.

So then what?

PS (and to make sure no one feels left out: Of course we can afford to re-capitalize the Coast Guard....)
 
Chris Pook said:
OGBD - Isn't that one of the arguments used to support the F35?

Of course we can afford 15 SCSCs.  Of course we can afford 65 F35s.  Of course we can afford an Armoured Division with sealift and an Airborne Bde with airlift. And we could afford to do all those things at the same time.

But our fellow citizens choose not to.

So then what?

PS (and to make sure no one feels left out: Of course we can afford to re-capitalize the Coast Guard....)

Don't forget the Victoria class or their replacements which are pretty much dollar for dollar with the Halifax. In isolation I say yes to everything but recapitalizing the CAF is obviously part of a greater process. The RN is down to what 19 destroyer/frigates and we want 15? Obviously different situations as the RN brings other things to the table but that's kind of the point as the RCN is/will be principally a SCS navy. Is that what we want/need?
 
Actually, Chris, the argument was never used in the F-35 debate, but I will get back to that later.

As regards the SCSC, not only has this "argument" not been made yet, but there has actually not been any "argument" on either side made - just the breaking news that a the National Shipbuilding Strategy is "in trouble" and more expensive than anticipated. Thus, to say that our fellow citizen choose not to support 15 SCSC's is simply incorrect at this point in time: they have not made their position known as of yet.

As regards the "making of this argument" to our fellow citizens (so they can actually "choose" what they think they want), it may have been discussed in these fora (and I, for one have discussed it before) but in the public in general, the mainstream media or the political circles, the argument is never really made, which in my mind leads to improper decision making by the population.

IMO, if ever there was a time to explain to Canadians how these procurement program figures fabrication* work, it was the F-35 debate.

The government basically presented its figures of 25b$ to the public. lo and behold, the budget officer then comes out with a 40b$ figure and tries to imply the government did not do its work properly. Our friendly MSM then jumps on the band wagon and basically, accuses the government of lying to Parliament and the Canadian people - with the opposition jumping on the bandwagon (and putting itself in a position to look like an as# now if they ever have to actually get F-35's after review of the facts).

Here's the thing: The government figures were for 25 years of acquisition/operations, so on average 1b$ a year**, while the Budget Officer's figures were for 40 years, so on average also 1b$ a year. This would have been the perfect opportunity for the government to explain why the figures were essentially the same, we were just using different time scale, and to explain to the public that what really matters is not the overall figures, but the impact in the defence budget year after year (but, noooooo! Mr. Harper had to take the opportunity to try and discredit the office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, and it back fired on him). Had the conservatives done that, they would have been able to show that the defence budgets from one year to the next would have been only slightly affected by the replacement of F-18's by F-35's, with more noticeable impacts (but still small ones) only in three or four years of the program, when at its peak.

So, no Chris, the argument has never been made properly to the public, and I sure wish somebody would make it one of these days. But here is the thing: It is not for the CAF to make that argument - it is for the civilians of DND (the DM and so forth) and for the politicians. We in the CAF carry out the defence of the realm, but it is the politicians that are responsible for providing for it. That is what civilian control means in a democracy.

/RANT OFF


*: Yes, fabrications - the accuracy of one to five year predictions made by well developed economic models of actors "in the know" for the economy is below 50% - meaning they can actually throw a dice and get better predictions - here we are trying to predict costs and usage of materiel of the next 30, 40 or 50 years when you include the acquisition lead time: it becomes pure guesswork and has no validity other than as a baseline for planning purposes.

**: I know it is not spread evenly, that for instance it may be 4 to 5 b$ in each of the two or three years where we actually get the new planes, much lower then for each of the following five years and getting higher towards the end in view of higher maintenance costs, but in the grand scheme of things, since multiple acquisition programs are always underway at varying budget and stages, the overall figures balance out.
 
suffolkowner said:
Don't forget the Victoria class or their replacements which are pretty much dollar for dollar with the Halifax. In isolation I say yes to everything but recapitalizing the CAF is obviously part of a greater process. The RN is down to what 19 destroyer/frigates and we want 15? Obviously different situations as the RN brings other things to the table but that's kind of the point as the RCN is/will be principally a SCS navy. Is that what we want/need?

Quite correct in pointing out that the RN's 19 destroyers/frigates capability cannot be a gauge of our situations. To gauge one against the other, you have to give value to the RN's two aircraft carriers, five amphibious ships, 12 nuclear submarines and large patrol/mine warfare fleet, not to mention much more extensive fleet of support vessels than our two to three AOR's.
 
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