N. Korea tests nuclear weapon

[Mike Baker]

If this isn't the right spot to post this, Mods move it please.

CTV.ca News Staff

North Korea declared Tuesday that it will be conducting its first-ever nuclear test in response to what it called increasing U.S. hostility.

"The DPRK will in the future conduct a nuclear test under the condition where safety is firmly guaranteed," the North's Foreign Ministry said in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.

"The U.S. extreme threat of a nuclear war and sanctions and pressure compel the DPRK to conduct a nuclear test, an essential process for bolstering nuclear deterrent, as a corresponding measure for defense."

The statement, which gave no precise date of when a test might occur, was immediately condemned by Japan as "totally unforgivable".

North Korea's announcement ended weeks of rumours that the Communist state was planning a test and came amid increasingly strained relations with the outside world after it test-fired missiles in July.

The United Nations imposed sanctions and South Korea suspended aid after the North test-fired seven missiles -- including a long-range Taepodong-2 believed to be capable of reaching Alaska.

Pyongyang has faced mounting pressure over its nuclear program. It is thought to have a handful of warheads but is not known to have tested one.

China, North Korea's neighbour, ally and chief benefactor, had no immediate comment, the Associated Press reported.

The North Korean announcement appeared to have caught Chinese officials off-guard, coming in the midst of a week-long National Day holiday.

Meanwhile, South Korean security officials met Tuesday to discuss a response to North Korea's statement. Government spokesman Yoon Tae-young said the result of the meeting, attended by senior government officials in charge of national security, would be issued soon.

Multilateral talks on the North's nuclear program have been stalled for almost a year.

Pyongyang boycotted the six-nation talks to protest U.S. financial restrictions imposed for its alleged illegal activity, including money laundering and counterfeiting.

The North said Tuesday that its ultimate goal is "to settle hostile relations between the DPRK and the U.S. and to remove the very source of all nuclear threats from the Korean Peninsula and its vicinity," accusing the U.S. of posing a nuclear threat in the region.

"The U.S. daily increasing threat of a nuclear war and its vicious sanctions and pressure have caused a grave situation on the Korean peninsula in which the supreme interests and security of our state are seriously infringed upon and the Korean nation stands at the crossroads of life and death," the North Korean statement continued.

A successful nuclear test would likely put pressure on Japan and South Korea to develop their own nuclear capabilities.

 

[tomahawk6]

North Korea's neighbors are jittery. The Chinese have beefed up their forces on the border to deal with rogue NK troops and too round up NK refugees.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-2393599,00.html

 

[warspite]

North Korea's neighbors are jittery.

No argument there.
http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2006/10/07/korea.html
-S. Koreans shooting at tresspassing N. Korean soldiers
-Experts claim that a test could come as early as this Sunday(tomorrow), the anniversary of Kim Jong-il's coming to power(read this on CBC but can't find the article)
-Japan trying to decide wether or not their constitution allows for pre-emptive strikes against N. Korea.

To sum it up...... It's gonna blow

 

[a_majoor]

Or not.

One of the reasons for the DPRK's increasingly bellicose behavior is to try to attract the attention of the Great Powers. My five year old is a master of this sort of behavior, and members with small children are probably also aware of this as well.

When the United States reacted to the North Korean fireworks display AKA missile tests with indifference (only an assistant or deputy secretary went over, not Dr Rice, for example), it probably drove the Dear Leader into a frenzy. Throughout the 90's, this sort of behavior produced spectacular results in the form of bribes and concessions from the Clinton Administration, so the failure to extract concessions or bribes this time around puts the entire power structure of the DPRK in jeopardy. They are not being taken seriously abroad, and they cannot extract enough concessions from the West or China to maintain their precarious economy much longer I expect. The US could gradually ramp up its forces and posture to contain a collapsing North, without openly provoking a confrontation. There is a danger the DPRK could try to engineer a crisis, but astute management could keep things bottled up until the DPRK implodes.

The greatest danger that the collapse of North Korea would generate would be hordes of refugees streaming both north into China and south into the ROK. Robert Kaplan has an interesting article in this month's Atlantic Monthly, which makes the point that not even the ROK is enthusiastic about reunification at this time, and would probably preffer the shattered remnants of the north to be placed under some sort of four power protectorate for a generation to allow the population to gradually assimilate.

Who knows what the answer is? Certainly not I

 

[The Bread Guy]

A few highlights, and a bit o' background...

North Korea set to test first atomic bomb
Associated Press, 7 Oct 06
http://www.kstp.com/article/stories/S19230.html?cat=1

Tensions mounted over North Korea's threat to test its first atomic bomb, with shots ringing out Saturday along the border with South Korea and Japan warning of harsh sanctions if Pyongyang goes nuclear.  With a possible test expected as early as Sunday, the U.N. Security Council issued a stern statement Friday urging the country to abandon its nuclear ambitions and warning of unspecified consequences if the isolated, communist regime doesn't comply . . . .



North Korean nuclear test could unleash ‘ash of death’
Agence France Presse, via Khaleej Time (UAE), 8 Oct 06
http://www.khaleejtimes.ae/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2006/October/theworld_October243.xml&section=theworld&col=

If North Korea tests an atom bomb, neighbouring countries should hope its technology is sound, as a failed experiment could unleash potentially deadly radiation across Northeast Asia, experts said.  A failed test would also aggravate the political fallout as China, Russia and South Korea -- which support a conciliatory approach to the communist state -- would likely suffer the most besides North Korea itself.  North Korea, in a dramatic announcement last week that it will test its first atom bomb, said ‘safety will be thoroughly secured’  -- a possible reference to an underground experiment.  A series of reports based on diplomats and intelligence data have said that North Korea has drilled a hole in a mountain near the northern town of Chiktong for the nuclear test.  If conducted properly, a test either inside a mountain or underground would contain radiation . . . . .



Japan's new leader heads to China
BBC Online, 8 Oct 06
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4801583.stm

Japan's new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has set off on the first visit to China by a Japanese leader for five years. As he left on the trip, which includes a visit to South Korea, Mr Abe said North Korea must not carry out its threat to test a nuclear weapon. Japan has warned that it will seek tough action from the United Nations if North Korea carries out a nuclear test . . . .



North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program
Congressional Research Service Report #RL33590, 1 Aug 06
http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/71870.pdf

Summary:  North Korea's decisions at the end of 2002 to restart nuclear installations at Yongbyon that were shut down under the U.S.-North Korean Agreed Framework of 1994 and to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and its multiple missile tests of July 4, 2006, create a foreign policy problem for the United States. Restarting the Yongbyon facilities opens up a possible North Korean intent to stage a "nuclear breakout" of its nuclear program and openly produce nuclear weapons. North Korea's actions follow the disclosure in October 2002 that North Korea is operating a secret nuclear program based on uranium enrichment and the decision by the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) in November 2002 to suspend shipments of heavy oil to North Korea . . . .

 

[The Bread Guy]

Then again, why are we so worried?  He seems like a nice guy - just ask him 

Kim Jong Il Absolutely Trusted by World People
Korean News Service (PRK), 6 Oct 06

http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2006/200610/news10/06.htm#3
  Pyongyang, October 5 (KCNA) -- The progressives repose profound trust in Kim Jong Il today when the people's struggle for independence has entered on a new high phase, says Rodong Sinmun in a signed article Thursday. Personages of different strata, political parties and organizations of various countries sent a large number of wholehearted gifts, congratulatory letters and messages of greetings to him and influential news media gave wide coverage of his revolutionary activities, the article says, and goes on:
    The progressive people repose absolute trust in him, first of all, because they have a good understanding of the greatness of his feats.
    Kim Jong Il has dedicated himself to the human cause of independence for a long time, performing outstanding ideological and theoretical exploits which no other politicians and great men in history can ever match.
    In his famous work "Let Us Advance under the Banner of Marxism-Leninism and the Juche Idea" he set forth the issue of stepping up global independence as an important strategic task to accomplish the revolutionary cause of the working class and achieve victory of human cause of independence. He made public famous works one after another to clarify the revolutionary character, essence and goal of the cause of global independence, the appearance of the independent world and the way of accomplishing the human cause of independence.
    With his energetic and tireless ideological and theoretical activities he proved the scientific accuracy and truth of the socialist idea and the inevitability of its victory to deal a telling blow to the imperialists keen on the anti-socialist campaign and instill faith in victory of the human cause of independence and revolutionary spirit into the revolutionary people of the world.
    One of his outstanding feats is that he founded the political mode of Songun.
    The progressive people repose absolute trust in him next because they believe that he will wisely lead the cause of global independence in the 21st century to victory with responsibility for its future.

 

[dglad]

Then again, why are we so worried?  He seems like a nice guy - just ask him 

Kim Jong Il Absolutely Trusted by World People
Korean News Service (PRK), 6 Oct 06

I might be willing to trust him...if it wasn't for those sunglasses.  What's up with that, anyway?

 

[tomahawk6]

One can only hope that when the people get desperate enough they will revolt. If death is inevitable why not take to the streets ?

 

[a_majoor]

Interesting thought; the nuclear option is not primaraly aimed at the West (United States, ROK orJapan).

http://www.austinbay.net/blog/index.php?p=1469

10/8/2006
Meanwhile, at the Chinese-North Korean border…
Filed under: General— site admin @ 9:59 am
StrategyPage and others have written about China’s border troubles with North Korea. Today the London Times publishes an informative and at times utterly graphic article. The article indicates China has deployed new military units in the border region.

Here’s the lead, and part of the more graphic description:

THE North Korean refugee had one request for her captors before the young Chinese soldiers led her back across the steel-girdered bridge on the Yalu River that divides two “socialist allies”.

“She asked for a comb and some water because she said that if she was going to die she could not face going to heaven looking as dirty and dishevelled as this,” recounted a relative of one soldier who was there.
 
What happened next is testimony to the rising disgust in Chinese military ranks as Beijing posts more troops to the border amid a crisis with North Korea over its regime’s plan to stage a nuclear test.

The soldiers, who later told family members of the incident, marched the woman, who was about 30, to the mid-point of the bridge. North Korean guards were waiting. They signed papers for receipt of the woman, who kept her dignity until that moment. Then, in front of the Chinese troops, one seized her and another speared her hand — the soft part between thumb and forefinger — with the point of a sharpened steel cable, which he twisted into a leash.

“She screamed just like a pig when we kill it at home in the village,” the soldier later told his relative. “Then they dragged her away.”

Such stories are circulating widely among Chinese on the border, where wild rumours of an American attack on nuclear test sites have spread fears of a Chernobyl-type cloud of radiation and sparked indignation at the North Koreans. “I’ve heard it a hundred times over that when we send back a group they stab each one with steel cable, loop it under the collarbone and out again, and yoke them together like animals,” said an army veteran with relatives in service.

China has previously allowed Western reporters to visit the border area, but this is a particularly gritty report (more than the usual “we’ve a refugee problem up here”). I suspect China is letting reporters operate on a longer leash– hence the access to troops in the border region. This sends a message to Pyongyang.

The Chinese are worried about a potential influx of North Korean refugees. They are also vexed with counterfeit US currency coming from North Korea and (quote) “…vast quantities of fake Viagra from North Korea.”

Fake cash and fake drugs — the exports of a failed state seeking nuclear weapons.

Note the article’s last line — South Korea fears that –in the midst of a Chinese-North Korean military confrontation– China may take a slice of Korean territory. It’s happened before.

The sense that Kim’s regime is losing control lies behind the Chinese military buildup. But some South Korean MPs fear China could grab territory from the north in the event of a collapse.

Read the entire article.

I just heard a television report that North Korea is “reconsidering” its threat to test a nuclear weapon. Pyongyang wants face to face negotiations with the US in return for no detonation. This is an NoKo old demand, and a gimmick. The propaganda gimmick: if the US declines face to face negotiations then the NoKo test is the result of the US refusal. If the US agrees then Kim’s regime touts it as a huge dimplomatic victory, won by threatening nuclear war. In six or eight months, Pyongyang will pull the same extortion gambit once again.

Pyongyang has a lot to reconsider. China and Japan are holding very serious talks in Beijing, talks the Chinese had called “a turning point” in Chinese-Japanese relations.

From the Bloomberg report:

Japan and China agreed to improve frayed relations and said North Korea must not test a nuclear weapon in newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s first visit to Beijing.

China’s President Hu Jintao and Abe agreed that North Korea must return to six-party talks aimed at aimed at dismantling the country’s arms program, a Japanese government official said. North Korea on Oct. 3 said it would test a nuclear bomb, prompting a unanimous United Nations Security Council resolution urging Kim Jong Il’s government to abandon its plan…

Note China and Japan are insisting that North Korea return to the six party talks– in other words, they oppose North Korea’s demand for one on one talks with the US.

 

[tomahawk6]

Test is being reported as a success.

 

[couchcommander]

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2006/10/08/korea-atomic.html

N. Korea tests nuclear weapon
Last Updated: Sunday, October 8, 2006 | 11:12 PM ET
CBC News

North Korea has tested a nuclear weapon, its official news agency reported on Monday.

The Korean Central News Agency reported that the test was successful and no radiation had leaked from the site.

News of the test followed a demand from China and Japan on Sunday that the communist country not go ahead.

North Korea said Tuesday that it would test an atomic weapon because of "the U.S. extreme threat of a nuclear war."

Following that statement, the UN, U.S. and other countries all asked that it not proceed.

More to come

Welcome to an increasingly polycentric world. Scary, eh?

 

[GAP]

Already a thread on this here:

http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/51319/post-458646/topicseen.html#new

 

[couchcommander]

The gravity of this event deserved it's own thread IMO. See above link for lead up though, indeed.

 

[dglad]

Particularly scary since the US Assistant Secretary of State said that North Korea "could have nuclear weapons, or a future, but not both".

 

[Trinity]

The gravity of this event deserved it's own thread IMO. See above link for lead up though, indeed.

AGREED

Gravity of this definitely deserved its own thread.  I would have avoided the other
thread and not have known the test happened as I tired of the speculation. Definitely
keep this as its own thread.  But what do I know  :

 

[The Bread Guy]

N. Korea tests nuclear weapon at Hwadaeri near Kilju: Defense Ministry
Yonhap News (S.Korea), 9 Oct 06
http://english.yna.co.kr/Engnews/20061009/410100000020061009120954E5.html

North Korea is believed to have tested a nuclear weapon in the eastern part of the country Monday morning, a South Korean defense source said.  "We detected the explosive sound from Hwadaeri near Kilju in North Hamgyong Province at 10:36 a.m.(KST)," a senior Defense Ministry official said, asking to remain anonymous because of the sensitive nature of the information . . . .

Google Map Link to Kilju, North Korea
http://tinyurl.com/zk2nw


N. Korea says it conducted successful nuclear weapons test
Associated Press, via Minneapolis Star-Tribune, 8 Oct 06
http://www.startribune.com/722/story/729755.html

North Korea said Monday it has performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test. The country's official Korean Central News Agency said the test was performed successfully and there was no radioactive leakage from the site.  "The nuclear test is a historic event that brought happiness to the our military and people," KCNA said.


North Korea in nuclear test claim
BBC Online, 9 Oct 06
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/6032525.stm

Reports from North and South Korea say the communist authorities in North Korea have carried out their first ever test of a nuclear weapon. The North Korean state news agency said the underground test was a success. In South Korea, President Roh Moo-hyun convened a meeting of his top security officials following the reports . . . .


Seoul shares tumble on NKorean nuke test reports
Forbes.com, 9 Oct 06
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2006/10/08/afx3075209.html

Share prices tumbled, with the mainbord KOSPI dipping more than 3.0 pct, following a report that North Korea may have already conducted a nuclear test, dealers said. At 11:52 am, the KOSPI was down 46.97 points or 3.47 pct at 1,305.03 and the tech-heavy KOSDAQ fell 48.10 points or 8.19 pct to 539.22 . . . .


US intelligence can't confirm NKorea nuclear test
Reuters, 8 Oct 06
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlebusiness.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nN08219021&imageid=&cap=&from=business

U.S. intelligence cannot confirm North Korea conducted a nuclear test, an official said on Sunday.  "We cannot confirm," said a U.S. official who asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak publicly . . . .

Nothing posted yet (2335EDT) to Korean Central News Agency of DPRK
http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm

 

[The Bread Guy]

N. Korea tests nuclear weapon at Hwadaeri near Kilju: Defense MinistryYonhap News (S.Korea), 9 Oct 06
http://english.yna.co.kr/Engnews/20061009/410100000020061009120954E5.html

North Korea is believed to have tested a nuclear weapon in the eastern part of the country Monday morning, a South Korean defense source said.  "We detected the explosive sound from Hwadaeri near Kilju in North Hamgyong Province at 10:36 a.m.(KST)," a senior Defense Ministry official said, asking to remain anonymous because of the sensitive nature of the information . . . .

Google Map Link to Kilju, North Korea
http://tinyurl.com/zk2nw


N. Korea says it conducted successful nuclear weapons test
Associated Press, via Minneapolis Star-Tribune, 8 Oct 06
http://www.startribune.com/722/story/729755.html

North Korea said Monday it has performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test. The country's official Korean Central News Agency said the test was performed successfully and there was no radioactive leakage from the site.  "The nuclear test is a historic event that brought happiness to the our military and people," KCNA said.


North Korea in nuclear test claim
BBC Online, 9 Oct 06
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/6032525.stm

Reports from North and South Korea say the communist authorities in North Korea have carried out their first ever test of a nuclear weapon. The North Korean state news agency said the underground test was a success. In South Korea, President Roh Moo-hyun convened a meeting of his top security officials following the reports . . . .


Seoul shares tumble on NKorean nuke test reports
Forbes.com, 9 Oct 06
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2006/10/08/afx3075209.html

Share prices tumbled, with the mainbord KOSPI dipping more than 3.0 pct, following a report that North Korea may have already conducted a nuclear test, dealers said. At 11:52 am, the KOSPI was down 46.97 points or 3.47 pct at 1,305.03 and the tech-heavy KOSDAQ fell 48.10 points or 8.19 pct to 539.22 . . . .


US intelligence can't confirm NKorea nuclear test
Reuters, 8 Oct 06
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlebusiness.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nN08219021&imageid=&cap=&from=business

U.S. intelligence cannot confirm North Korea conducted a nuclear test, an official said on Sunday.  "We cannot confirm," said a U.S. official who asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak publicly . . . .

Nothing posted yet (2338EDT) to Korean Central News Agency of DPRK
http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm

 

[Long Sword]

Will North Korea try to trade its nuke for foreign aid or does it intend to keep it for long term political gain?

 

[1feral1]

We knew this would happen. Now just wait and see to which pack of a$$holes they'll sell one too.

Yes, and they will!

Regards,

Wes

 

[rz350]

I;m hoping it strokes their ego and makes them feel secure enough to just STFU and get back to trying to run a country. (maybe now that they've done it, they can spend some precious $$ on things like farming)