• Thanks for stopping by. Logging in to a registered account will remove all generic ads. Please reach out with any questions or concerns.

Making Canada Relevant Again- The Economic Super-Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
The author makes some good points, but although I consider myself a conservative, I find his stance to be radical itself.

Basically, his position that any regulation or process that delays or stops resource exploitation and industrialization is bad and is a loophole for the radical environmentalists to stop projects.  While over-regulation is not a good thing (BC NDP 1990s), throwing open the doors, allowing industry to re-write statutes and regulations, and turning the province into a Monopoly board is not the answer either (BC Liberals 2000s).

With government scientists being told by government bureaucrats (with orders from 'the centre') not to oppose projects, but to find ways to "mitigate" their impacts, it is left to scientists from academia and concerned locals to voice their concern or opposition to bad projects.  This is where the foreign special interest groups pop up.  Often these groups have no one with any background in ecology, forestry or geology.  Once they get involved (since independent scientists and concerned locals have no money) the whole process turns into a circus.

The author appears to be saying that government should get out of the way and let industry do what it needs to do.  However, it's my experience that industry is incapable and/or unwilling to pay for the externalities of their activities without some big carrots and sticks held by government.
 
More to my point, here is an argument against the pipeline from the conservative side:

http://alexgtsakumis.com/2012/01/12/the-enbridge-pipeline-is-wrong-for-british-columbia-and-should-be-stopped-its-bad-business-for-the-environment/

The Enbridge Pipeline is Wrong for British Columbia and Should Be Stopped: It’s Bad Business for the Environment


Imagine, if you will, that it’s the spring of 2020.

Splashed across every newspaper in the province is the following story:

Enbridge Pipeline accident claims millions of salmon including Chinook and Coho. Bullhead trout also threatened, with clean-up estimated in the billions: Communities of Burns Lake, Smithers and Prince Rupert devastated. Managing Directors Kim Haakstad, Rebecca Scott were unavailable for comment. President Pamela Martin’s office advises that she is away on vacation in Maui.

Or how ’bout this:

Enbridge Senior Vice-President of Communications and former premier Christy Clark confirms the spill that has destroyed several sensitive eco-systems off the Queen Charlotte Sandspit will take at least five years to clean-up. Containment is presently hampered by rising tides and high winds. Ms. Clark assures, “Everything’s going our way, right? We’ve contained the, uh, spill, and gosh, ya know, we’re gonna do everything we can to get those salmon fry their jobs back, right? I had this thing waiting on my desk when I got here, eh? So, it’s not easy. We’re doing the best we can with what we’ve got to work with. No one could have anticipated this when we agreed to it in 2012. It was like something from a movie, right? We’re gonna get the people responsible and put cameras in the courtrooms so that everyone knows who they are, right?”

Wrong. It’s a bad deal.

The proposed Enbridge pipeline represents a bad deal for British Columbia and shouldn’t be signed. The federal government should be told, in as polite a way possible, that BC’s pristine forests and rivers are not Alberta’s lab rats. Notwithstanding the fact that the Albertans have already reckoned that the notion of a 730 mile, cross-province pipeline that spans Northern British Columbia–and benefits mostly Alberta, won’t fly in a province that just told its government to pack sand when it comes to a relatively “measly” consumption tax. Therefore, and quite logically I might add, they’re advocating what I’d like to endorse now: that we refine the Tar Sands bitumen (sludge) here in BC (and Alberta), come into a profit sharing agreement with our neighbor and the federal government and find another way of sending the end product to China and the United States. I know that double hulled tankers didn’t exist in the day of the Exxon Valdez and pipeline safety has come a long way too. But the risk is too high and the cost too great if that sludge ends up in valley floors, watersheds and fish escapements.

Firstly, two words about China and the Tar Sands. I respect my friend Ezra Levant’s use of the word ‘Ethical Oil’. It well represents the fact that we should be doing business with our larger trading partners (including the oft and appropriately condemned, shamefully anti-Tibetan Chinese) instead of pumping the pockets of the Arab world that seeks to destroy humanity by having them half ignite Islamofascism with direct support and indirectly by turning the other cheek. I get all that. It makes sense to reduce adding to their bottom line. Young girls shouldn’t be mutilated. Women deserve the right to vote, drive and be seen–not covered up, but as the beautiful creatures they are and homosexuals should  be able to live free and with pride. Adultery (because you’ve been married to your misogynistic 94 year old uncle for ten years) shouldn’t be cause for a firing squad. I appreciate all this, very much. Not funding such lunacy, or at least, reducing it where and when we can, makes perfect sense.

Secondly, I also understand and appreciate that the Tar Sands represent too significant a portion of our GDP to be ignored. As much as the enviro-alarmists want to bellyache (have they ever done anything else?), the world is still driven (pun intended) by oil. Like it or not, we drive cars and will not ever turn into a cycling country. Our weather is inclement and at least in this province (with Vancouver as prime example) we live in cities with peaks and valleys. We drive our children to school. We deliver our parents to hospitals, hairdressers and hockey games–cars are here to stay. You can whine all you like, it won’t change a damn thing.

But this doesn’t mean we risk virgin forest and unspoiled land. If an accident happens, the impact is absolutely devastating. It’ll never get cleaned up.

The proposed pipeline is actually two pipelines, with bitumen in one and condensate–used to push through the sludge, in the other–and it will almost certainly be compromised at some point. Enbridge actually admits to this in several of their latest efforts at rhetorical spin and I find that most disconcerting.

It’s not just that the pipeline itself crosses 1,176 kms (730 miles), it’s that it straddles, crosses or barely bypasses almost 800 streams, 600 of them fish bearing. Nevermind that mule deer, moose, elk, white tails, mountain goats and bears inhabit several of the regions the pipeline crosses. Forget that several northern BC towns would be shut down. The impact to the environment, in the most beautiful province in the country, would be perfectly calamitous.

The Enbridge pipeline would have to cross wetlands, flood plains, bird sanctuaries, valuable watersheds and productive fish escapements.

You want to run 525,000 barrels a day of bitumen past all that? And 193,000 barrels per day of condensate?

If you answered ‘Yes!’ to that, you must have rocks for brains. In which case you should be more sensitive to protecting your earth brothers.

Any of Chinook, Pink and Coho salmon could have their stocks ransacked for decades. Bull head trout, plentiful in the area just to the west of and below Burns Lake, as far as to the south of Prince Rupert, could be wiped out completely.

Steelhead, which have only really come back there in the last ten years, could be finished from the region. The diluted bitumen combined with debris and sediment would likely accrue in spawning fields causing the kind of environmental ruin that would rank somewhere near the top of world disaster standards.

I’m supposed to support such lunacy?

I’ve hunted and fished in the region in the past and I can tell you from traveling that terrain both on ATV (where you can!) on foot, and above it by helicopter, it’s the most beautiful in all British Columbia. And damn well challenging. You’ve never fished, until you’ve fished sockeye in the Bulkley. And if you think a pack and rifle are tough to slog in such remote areas, try getting in there with thousands of tons of necessary remediation infrastructure and finding a leak or spill and then fixing it. The whole pipeline idea–in that part of the province, makes zero sense.

And I’m not listening to the alarmists that are idiotically telling the country to shut down the Tar Sands. That’s the other extreme.

I’ve gone to authorities on the likely problems.

From the ‘Independent Report for the Northwest Institute for Bioregional Research’ written by Mike Miles, M.Sc. (P. Geo), and David Bustard, M.Sc. (R.P. Bio):

 
“There do not appear to be any proven techniques for effectively mitigating these (potential) impacts.”

Critical spawning and rearing habitats, like those for the rare mountain white fish, might be subject to an inability to assuage the risk for such catastrophic circumstances.

Why take the bloody chance?

And then there’s the business case against it: Alberta gets the majority of the benefit, and we eat all the risk. No rider from the Alberta government, nothing. No assurances from the feds, zilch. Although, I must state, that Premier Redford is doing a superb job in getting the proponents–like former premier Loughheed, out there and their voices heard. In fact, out of anything I’ve read, Peter Loughheed’s suggestion of refining the bitumen in Canada, resonates. Again, the extremists who believe in climate change alarmist hooey will whine, but that makes as much sense as the pipeline proposal.

If you consider that the spill toxicity and dispersal reach of the Exxon Valdez impacted various regions up the BC and Alaskan coasts to the point that, even today, the habitats affected remain largely degraded, then you understand the potential tragedy.

That was March of 1989–TWENTY TWO YEARS AGO.

A pipeline to the coast, through Burns Lake, past Houston, near Smithers and Hazelton that dips below Prince Rupert out to the Queen Charlotte sandspit, where tankers would be required to navigate often treacherous waters, is as asinine as anything I’ve ever heard.

Selling the Tar Sands is important, but a cross-province pipeline like the one proposed is too dangerous and represents a bad deal for BC–and most importantly our environment.

Please write Premier Christy Clark and Prime Minister Stephen Harper and tell them so.

I can't find much to disagree with here.
 
Reading the upthread post, my take is the author is saying people protecting their property rights is a far better means of dealing with potential problems that industrial or other development can cause, rather than corporations being able to write the rules or having bureaucrats from one part of government overruling bureaucrats from other parts of the government. People might be concerned about the rainforest (or a city park) in abstract, but will be pretty ferocious in defending their own property. Even the casual observation of a city park and a private garden generally demonstrates more care and attention to detail in the private garden (and the ones that are allowed to be overrun with weeds by neglect are generally purchased at a much discounted price).

That being said, Minister Oliver is still the first politician who has actually stood up and pointed out what is happening in plain language.
 
I believe the intent of the exercise has been achieved.

The Government has put the "Foreign Money" issue on the radar.  St. David Suzuki is on notice. 

As to the merits of the pipeline - It needs to be done.  I'm agnostic with respect to the route.  I expect those whose lands and waters are put at risk to be appropriately compensated and their interests safeguarded.

Anything's possible, if cash.
 
Why that route?

Is it because there are larger populations of tree huggers they would have to contend with on a more southerly route?

What about further north?
 
GAP said:
Why that route?

Is it because there are larger populations of tree huggers they would have to contend with on a more southerly route?

What about further north?

I'd suspect it's an economic decision primarily.
 
Kirkhill said:
I believe the intent of the exercise has been achieved.

The Government has put the "Foreign Money" issue on the radar.  St. David Suzuki is on notice. 

As to the merits of the pipeline - It needs to be done.  I'm agnostic with respect to the route.  I expect those whose lands and waters are put at risk to be appropriately compensated and their interests safeguarded.

Anything's possible, if cash.

:goodpost:

I'm with the oatmeal savage; the pipeline is needed - notwithstanding proposals to use an Atlantic route. The route needs to be technically and economically sensible and the environment does matter - it is valuable, too.

The project is not risk free - there will be breaks and spills; good engineering can ensure that the impacts are minimal or, at least, acceptable.

I don't mind seeing the foreign money issue raised and St David Suzuki et al put on notice, but see my signature line - everyone has a right to express their opinion. But, having a right to express an opinion does not mean that one has a right to bury opposing opinions - and that applies to governments, corporations, first nations and the greenies, alike.
 
Interesting POV. Are the benefits being exaggerated? It does talk about how eastern Canada gets all its needs from imported oil, but I've always understood that as a function of a lack of adequate infrastructure to transport Alberta oil east, when going south is cheaper as we can hook into existing infrastructure, and the fact that it isn't efficient for production of gasoline anyhow. I don't think plowing money into building some new pipeline east within Canada is going to win much support from anywhere.

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2012/01/12/HughesReport/

Shared with the usual provisions:

The Northern Gateway Pipeline will explosively increase the scale of oil sands production at a level not in the national interest, says David Hughes, one of Canada's foremost energy analysts.

By tripling oil sands production rates above 2010 levels, the project will "compromise the long term energy security interests of Canadians, as well as their environmental interests," charges Hughes.

The proposed pipeline, designed to ferry bitumen to Asian markets, will also liquidate a non-renewable resource at prices that will likely seem like a bargain down the road says Hughes in a 30-page report titled "The Northern Gateway Pipeline."

The top-notch analyst also points out that Enbridge, Gateway's proponent, has made up its own oil sands growth forecasts, which it has provided to the National Energy Board to justify the project.

"Enbridge has generated its own projection of a further increased oil supply, with no methodological backup, to justify the need for its Northern Gateway project to the National Energy Board."

Hughes' damning report also posits a simple question that Canada's media routinely neglects: why does the Canadian government support a proposal to export oil to China when nearly half the country (Quebec and Atlantic Canada) is nearly 100 per cent dependent on declining or volatile reserves from the North Sea and the Middle East? (The study was funded by the author and by Forest Ethics with intervenor money for the Gateway hearing provided by the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency.)*

He also singles out a glaring public policy omission: Canada does not have a credible energy plan. "The absence of a National Energy Strategy, given the non-renewable nature of the majority of the energy inputs to Canadian society, represents an extreme vulnerability to the long-term security interests of Canadians."

Author's 32 years with Natural Resources Canada

Hughes is neither a radical nor a foreigner. Nor he is an environmentalist. In fact the no-nonsense geologist regards the oil sands as a strategic resource that should be developed measurably and carefully in the national interest.

His energy expertise is genuine and hard won. The rock hound worked for the Natural Resources Canada for 32 years where the senior researcher focused on analyzing coal reserves, shale gas and unconventional natural gas supplies.

The retired 61-year-old energy specialist now gives detailed and sobering talks about declining global energy supplies across the continent.

The report, which has been submitted as evidence to the National Energy Board (the author will testify at the public hearings), squarely questions the "Canadian energy superpower" rhetoric of the Harper government. Hughes says it's based entirely on the oil sands -- a low quality and environmentally high-cost source of oil.

But Canada does, however, burn super volumes of fossil fuels. Canadians now consume five times more oil than the global per capita average, says Hughes. In addition half the country depends on oil imports (780,000 barrels a day) from foreign countries. In fact, the majority of oil consumed in Quebec and Atlantic Canada comes from volatile regimes in the Middle East.

How can Canada be an energy superpower, asks Hughes, when it will become "increasingly dependent on OPEC and the vagaries of the world oil markets for what is likely to be much higher cost imported oil?"

Furthermore, Canada's highest quality energy resources are declining. "Our natural gas production peaked in 2001 and conventional oil peaked in 1973. The superpower claim is totally a statement about the tar sands," Hughes told The Tyee.

But bitumen is not light oil, cheap oil or even easy oil. It's taken 40 years of dedicated brute force and landscape destruction as well as nearly $200 billion worth of mostly foreign capital to reach marginal production levels of 1.5 million barrels a day. (See satellite images)

In the global scheme of things, that's a drop in the bucket. It's also a modest figure given that Canada now consumes 1.8 million barrels a day. (Domestic demand could grow to 2.25 million barrels by 2030).

Moreover Canada has or will soon pick the best fruit first in the oil sands, says Hughes. The mineable portions are the richest and cheapest to extract. These are the focus of nearly 90 per cent of the 26 billion barrels currently under "active development" according to the Alberta Energy Resources Conservation Board.

Of the remaining 143 billion barrels, 90 per cent can only be exploited by in situ methods, which are so energy wasteful and water intensive that many experts think this technology should be banned or severely limited.

According to the "growth" forecasts by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), Canada could extract 3.7 million barrels a day by 2025 (the maximum recovery rate) but such haste would exhaust the 26 billion barrels "under active development" within 19 years. The Gateway Enbridge pipeline, which proposes to suck out half a million barrels a day to Asian supertankers, would accomplish that job quickly.

Three strikes against

Hughes thinks that the rapid liquidation of Canada's highest quality bitumen reserves, as proposed by Enbridge, is bad national policy for three reasons.

For starters, peak oil means the end of cheap oil. What stays in the ground will only get more valuable over time, says Hughes. Speedy liquidation means not only a revenue giveaway but exponential growth of pollution and water contamination. (Current mining waste liabilities already total more than $20-billion.)

Second, energy returns on bitumen are dropping fast, which means that industry will increasingly spend more energy to get less energy back. Right now industry secures but 5.7 barrels for every barrel of oil or its energy equivalent invested in tar sands mining operations. In contrast, the Middle East still garners superior returns of 20 to one. (According to energy expert Charles Hall, our currently oil-driven civilization requires returns of 10 to one or must face economic stagnation.)

But the steam plants, models of inefficiency and waste, win returns of 3.8 to one for in situ recovery (80 per cent of the resource). Given that the best bitumen resources with the highest energy returns are now being used up, a rapid extraction policy leaves Canadians with the dregs of the barrel as well as less energy and even bigger environmental messes, says Hughes.

Third, the Enbridge pipeline is based on a projection that accelerates liquidation of a non-renewable resource in the absence of any national policy. Hughes points out that Northern Gateway is not needed unless oil sands production is ramped up by more than three-fold over 2010 levels. Enbridge bases its Northern Gateway proposal on the assumption that oil sands production can be tripled in less than 25 years. (Remember it took 40 years to reach 1.5 million barrels.)

The Enbridge forecast, which was an extension of CAPP's most optimistic forecast of tar sands development filed in its application to NEB, has no documented methodological basis. This was confirmed in an email to Hughes from CAPP.

It stated: "The extension is not from CAPP. Looks like someone has done the extension without our cooperation. In other words, we can't comment on the methodology."

CAPP, the nation's powerful oil lobby, has two growth scenarios for the tar sands. Given existing approvals and projects under construction, CAPP's more conservative forecast says oil sand production will grow from 1.8 million barrels a day to 2.8 million barrels by 2019 (tar sands production including diluents). That's a 50 per cent increase over 2010 production levels.

But a super "growth" CAPP scenario based on speculative numbers suggests production could reach nearly 4.6 million barrels per day by 2025, a growth rate of 154 per cent.

Enbridge, however, took these figures and jacked them up to 5.8 million barrels a day by 2035 or a growth rate of 217 per cent over 2010 levels. "Enbridge's rationale for the Northern Gateway Pipeline is based on its own unsubstantiated and highly optimistic projections for growth in oil sands production beyond 2025," reports Hughes. "This may serve Enbridge's corporate needs and those of its shareholders but does not consider the longer term environmental and energy security needs of Canadians."

In summary Hughes concludes that 50 per cent growth in oil sands production can be handled by existing pipelines and U.S. demand. In other words Gateway is not needed. (A Natural Resources Canada briefing note reached the same conclusion last year saying "Even without Northern Gateway, Canada will have enough crude oil export capacity for some considerable time.")

Slow and steady

Like many oil patch veterans, Hughes favors a slow and prudent course and doesn't recommend much further growth in bitumen production. "I agree with [former Alberta premier] Peter Lougheed. I think we should have a planned growth strategy that puts Canada first."

But Enbridge's radical growth projections would expand the scale of the mammoth tar sands project and triple current levels of production by 2035. Hughes calls such irrational growth a threat to the nation "in the light of the long term energy security and environmental interests of Canadians."

Furthermore, "the absence of National energy strategy which safeguards the long term energy security and environmental interests of Canadians means there are no constraints on the uncontrolled liquidation of Canada's intrinsic energy resources."

Asked why Natural Resources Canada hasn't raised these critical energy issues, Hughes paused for a moment on the phone at his home on Cortes Island in British Columbia.

"That's a good question," he replied.

*Story updated at 3:26 p.m. on Jan. 12, 2012.
 
All I can see is Chicken Little runnng around saying "The sky is falling!!!"

If we stopped progress because of every doomsday or 'what if' scenario, we'd still be wearing clothes made from woven reeds and be living in holes in the ground.

The human race has excelled and advanced because we took chances, in spite of our mistakes.

Has every opportunity been a success? Of course not. However we didn't get where we are by saying "Boy, we really fucked that up, better not learn from our mistakes or try improve on that idea."

Of course, the naysayers have a point. We should all live in natural rock shelters and read by the light of homemade beeswax candles, just like they do, right? ::)

Oh wait, they don't, do they? ;)
 
David Hughes has a rather Malthusian view of things.

I well remember when Canada was only a modest energy producer. Bitumen was known but not counted as a technically or economically feasible source of energy; now technology and price mean it is at market. Many Canadian and US oilfields were, just 15 years ago, considered to be dry; now new technology and higher prices have given them new "life." Things change, Malthus was wrong, Hughes might be wrong, too, for similar reasons.
 
The concern that I have is that price is the sole determinant, and those technologies seem to have problems. Sure, fracking makes gas wells more productive, but at what cost? It's not surprising to me that there's a vocal movement that wants the practice banned, though I can't/won't comment on how large it is. I think if most people read up on the whole story on hydraulic fracturing - its impact on groundwater for example, and its believed connection with seismic events (at least two I've read about, one in the eastern USA and one in the UK), they'd probably not want to live anywhere near where it's being used. When you also look at the fact that cronyism got it exempted from environmental regulations in the USA, and start asking who benefits, to me a clear problem emerges. Natural gas may burn clean in comparison to coal, but getting it is still an extremely nasty process most people know little about.

It goes back to a simple point - price isn't a good determinant when there are so many externalities we don't price in. Good energy policy is important, but that has to involve capturing those externalities.


E.R. Campbell said:
David Hughes has a rather Malthusian view of things.

I well remember when Canada was only a modest energy producer. Bitumen was known but not counted as a technically or economically feasible source of energy; now technology and price mean it is at market. Many Canadian and US oilfields were, just 15 years ago, considered to be dry; now new technology and higher prices have given them new "life." Things change, Malthus was wrong, Hughes might be wrong, too, for similar reasons.
 
Of course price cannot be the sole determinant ... consider human "good."

In the past 50 years hundreds of millions of people have been shifted from abject poverty to the lower middle class (by our standards) and tens of millions more have moved to the middle and even upper classes. That is mor people living better lives than their parents than has ever happened in all of human history. That, as Martha Stewart might say, is a "good thing."

Energy - coal and gasoline, mainly - has been the most important single factor in that shift from "bad" to "good," followed closely by fertilizers.

But there are hundreds of millions to go.

One of key "shifts" is to get from this:
IMG_3132.jpg


to this:
DB_175CC_TUK_TUK_CARGO_TRICYCLE.jpg
.

The hundreds of millions of people in Asia (and Africa) need oil to go from abject, human powered poverty to a decent, more productive, motorized lifestyle. We have the oil. Those who oppose increasing our oil supplies want to condemn those hundreds of millions to a life of poverty and misery. It is a morally indefensible position, equivalent to hoarding wheat during a famine rather than selling it.
 
I still don't like that BC is taking all the ecological risk, in an area unsuited for pipelines and oil tankers, while Alberta gets the financial benefit.

Speaking of foreign influence, Terry Glavin points out that the petro companies involved in this pipeline are either owned, or partly owned by Chinese state-owned companies, which is concerning.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/01/13/terry-glavin-canada-sells-the-oilsands-to-china-then-complains-about-foreign-interference/

Terry Glavin: Canada sells the oilsands to China. Then complains about ‘foreign interference’

Jan 13, 2012 – 9:45 AM ET | Last Updated: Jan 13, 2012 9:49 AM ET

If there were a global competition for the most brazen and preposterously transparent attempt by a ruling political party to change a necessary subject of national debate with alarmist distractions and hubbub, the Conservative escapade engineered in Ottawa these past few days really deserves some kind of grand prize.

First it was Prime Minister Stephen Harper himself, carrying on about some sort of conspiracy involving jet-setting American radical billionaire eco-saboteurs who are intent upon blocking Canada’s vital bitumen semi-fluids by ambuscading the Enbridge pipeline hearings that began this week in the Haisla village of Kitimat on British Columbia’s north coast.

Then Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver got in on the act. “These groups threaten to hijack our regulatory system to achieve their radical ideological agenda. … They use funding from foreign special interest groups to undermine Canada’s national economic interest.” A problem: when he went dredging around for evidence, Oliver came up with a two-month delay in approving some skating pond in Banff National Park. Then he tried backtracking. He’d suddenly found himself keeping company with conspiracy theorists who like making dirty insinuations about Ducks Unlimited. You had to feel sorry for the guy.

But if we’re seriously supposed to be going all villagers-with-torches about foreign outfits with weird ideologies undermining Canada’s national economic interests, let’s review what’s really going on, shall we?

The $5.5-billion Enbridge pipeline project is all about sending Alberta bitumen in huge oil tankers to China. Beijing’s own state enterprises are among the project’s major backers, and Beijing has been buying up Alberta’s oilpatch at such a dizzying pace lately it’s hard to keep up. In the spring of 2010, China’s state-owned Sinopec Corp. took a $4.65-billion piece of Syncrude. Then the China Investment Corporation, which is run by the Chinese Communist Party, took possession of a $1.25-billon share of Penn West Petroleum. Last summer, the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporation gobbled up Opti Canada for $2.34 billion. And so on.

Then, last month, Sinopec spent $2.2-billion to take over Daylight Energy Ltd., and last week, Petro-China, with the final push of $1.9 billion, became the owner and manager of the MacKay River oilsands project. This is what Ottawa doesn’t want you noticing.

Until now, Beijing’s strategy has been to fly under the radar by taking only pieces of oilsands ventures and to murmur occasionally about bringing in Chinese workers or pulling up stakes altogether should they hear too much backchat. Now, everything’s changed. Sinopec’s Daylight deal was a first: it was a complete takeover of a Canadian oilsands company by a Chinese state corporation. The MacKay River deal was a first, too, but in a bigger way: when the McKay project is up and running in 2014 it will be a full Chinese show, with a boss that answers directly to Beijing. The thing is, nobody in Ottawa wants to have a serious conversation about any of this.

During the 2008 election campaign, the vow to block the export of Canadian bitumen for processing offshore didn’t come from Leonardo DiCaprio in some underground command bunker of Hollywood eco-freaks. It was what the federal Conservative Party said. Back then, Ottawa’s very own Competition Policy Review made a series of recommendations about how to deal with takeovers of Canadian resources by foreign state-owned companies. Ottawa promptly ignored those recommendations. In last May’s federal election, the subject simply didn’t come up. And now it’s serious. Really serious.

It’s not just old-school Canadian nationalists who think so. Last April, a poll conducted for Canadian environmental groups found that 72.8 per cent of British Columbians were worried about China’s increasing command of Canada’s resources sector. Fewer than five per cent of British Columbians agreed with Ottawa’s new line, which is that it’s not a big deal.

Also last April, the federally funded, China-friendly Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada released its own poll findings, showing that 75 per cent of Canadians opposed Chinese state-owned companies gaining controlling stakes in Canadian companies, and 57 per cent of us saw the rise of Chinese economic power as a threat to Canada’s interests.

This isn’t just old Vancouver hippies worrying about the implications of 200-plus tankers taking oil out of Kitimat every year. In each of four public opinion polls sponsored by B.C. environmentalists in 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2011, at least two-thirds of British Columbia’s Conservative voters said they wanted oil tankers banned from the wild waters of the West Coast’s notoriously ragged and wind-shredded coastline.

When the Asia Pacific Foundation released its poll results last spring, foundation president Yuen Pau Woo warned Ottawa that there is “an urgent need for political leadership” on China’s deepening influence in the Canadian economy. And now, just as Beijing makes its move and entrenches itself deeper than anyone anticipated, Ottawa wants us to play connect-a-dot for the evidence that will link sinister Hollywood gazillionaires to delays in getting that ice rink set up in Banff.

It turns out that two can play this sort of game. B.C.’s environmentalists are now making great sport of it, pointing out that Ottawa’s “ethical oil” branding exercise was begun by Conservative party gadfly Ezra Levant, who was succeeded at the Ethical Oil institute by none other than the otherwise intelligent Alykhan Velshi, who parked himself there between his term with Immigration Minister Jason Kenney and his new job in Stephen Harper’s office. Bonus points: Ethical Oil diala-quote Kathryn Marshall is married to Hamish Marshall, Harper’s former strategic planning manager.

While it’s all good fun to play Spot the Freemason, something very serious is going on here. Last summer, John Bruk, the Asia Pacific Foundation’s founding president, warned that Ottawa was ignoring the rapid emergence of Chinese government interests “in sheep’s clothing” taking over Canada’s natural resource industries. Bruk told B.C. Business magazine: “Are we jeopardizing prosperity for our children and grandchildren while putting at risk our economic independence? In my view, this is exactly what is happening.”

As things have turned out, Bruk was more right than he knew.

The Ottawa Citizen

Terry Glavin is the Harvey Stevenson Southam lecturer in journalism at the University of Victoria. His most recent book is Come From the Shadows: The Long and Lonely Struggle For Peace in Afghanistan.

Although I am far from being an enviro-whacko, the more I read on this, the less I like.
 
And with a hop, skip and a jump Redeye moves from the pipeline to Frakking. 

I live in southern Alberta.  Frakking was developed here (Medicine Hat) and has been used for over two decades.

As to ground water quality - Oil was found in the Turner Valley in 1913 because of natural flares from seeps in the ground.

William Stewart Herron, an Okotoks farmer, made the first gas discovery in Alberta when he noticed gas bubbling along the banks of Sheep Creek in the Turner Valley. In 1913, Herron, in partnership with Archibald W. Dingman, formed the Calgary Petroleum Products Company. One year later, the two men struck gas when they discovered the Dingman No. 1 well. This discovery inaugurated the Turner Valley oil era.

UofC Link

31 years out here, on and off, and No' Deid Yet.

And Ray.... what's your price for putting a pipeline through your backyard?  You say you're bothered that BC takes the Eco risk while Alberta reaps the financial reward,  what would be a fair share of the reward to offset your risk?

Open for business......
 
Kirkhill said:
And with a hop, skip and a jump Redeye moves from the pipeline to Frakking. 

I live in southern Alberta.  Frakking was developed here (Medicine Hat) and has been used for over two decades.

As to ground water quality - Oil was found in the Turner Valley in 1913 because of natural flares from seeps in the ground.

UofC Link

31 years out here, on and off, and No' Deid Yet.

And Ray.... what's your price for putting a pipeline through your backyard?  You say you're bothered that BC takes the Eco risk while Alberta reaps the financial reward,  what would be a fair share of the reward to offset your risk?

Open for business......

Fracking is another excellent example of the problem of externalities, which I why I mentioned it. Great, it's worked in one place. In others, it's caused gas to seep into water supplies, among other problems. A completely illogical exemption to US environmental laws means that proprietary fracking fluids contain a myriad of substances we don't even know about and the process requires massive amounts of water which as best I understand it isn't treated. Again, who bears the cost of this? Kirkhill, you're actually making the argument for me. What's a fair share of the reward? Well, in order to assess that we have assess the actual costs involved. Right now, we're not actually paying anywhere near those. Without actually assessing the costs, how can we determine what adequate compensation is?

It sounds just awesome, fracking. Like this summation of several news reports combined with a pretty decent lesson in the "free market": http://www.truth-out.org/fracking-anatomy-free-market-failure/1326489492 - it's no wonder a lot of communities don't want this sort of thing going on in their backyards. The effects get borne by all, not just those who sign leases, which the NYT article cites a study on, suggesting that landowners signed deals that were very much not in their favour, and likely without adequate disclosures for them to make informed decisions.

I'm fine with more research into the tech, but I sure as hell don't want it anywhere near anywhere I'm living any time soon.
 
Redeye said:
....

I'm fine with more research into the tech, but I sure as hell don't want it anywhere near anywhere I'm living any time soon.

Yep.... the answer to everything: more research, more data, more input.  Every decision can be delayed indefinitely until we have perfect situational awareness. 

On the plus side I'm reckoning you won't be moving to Alberta anytime soon.

Cheers.
 
While it’s all good fun to play Spot the Freemason, something very serious is going on here. Last summer, John Bruk, the Asia Pacific Foundation’s founding president, warned that Ottawa was ignoring the rapid emergence of Chinese government interests “in sheep’s clothing” taking over Canada’s natural resource industries. Bruk told B.C. Business magazine: “Are we jeopardizing prosperity for our children and grandchildren while putting at risk our economic independence? In my view, this is exactly what is happening.”

While it is true the Chinese are buying up natural resources and control of companies at a rapid rate, the decision to extend the pipeline west rather than south was made in Washington DC, not Beijing. The companies involved and the Canadian government have all been pretty keen on the Keystone XL option to Texas (and most of the States the pipeline would have passed through were pretty supportive as well), going for the Pacific coast only became an option when it was clear the Administration would continue to use stalling tactics to block the pipeline.

That said, if Japan or India were to outbid the Chinese for oil, then the tankers would be sailing to Japan and India. This would not necessarily be a bad thing for the Chinese companies that invest in Canadaian resource companies, they would still receive payment for these purchases and have profits to invest, and Canadian workers would still be employed.
 
According to the this report (Alberta Gov't, 2008) only eight (of 21) major heavy oil projects are "Canadian," two more are Canadian plus a foreign partner - thus: half of the projects are already foreign owned, mostly by American firms, a few by British, Dutch and French firms, too.
 
Kirkhill said:
Yep.... the answer to everything: more research, more data, more input.  Every decision can be delayed indefinitely until we have perfect situational awareness. 

Indefinitely? No. But they can be delayed until we actually understand the consequences of the actions. The more comes to light about fracking the worse it looks, though, which does suggest to me that the risks aren't worth the returns. Particularly when the risks seem to be born by the public while the returns go primarily to the industry. Yes, the public benefits from theoretically cheaper and abundant natural gas, but you still can't make an assessment of cost/benefit when costs aren't known.

Kirkhill said:
On the plus side I'm reckoning you won't be moving to Alberta anytime soon.

Not near a gasfield, nope. Alberta's a beautiful place, I quite enjoyed the (limited) time I've spent there. But I happen to like my corner of the world as well, and I don't have plans to leave any time soon.
 
Canada's long-term energy security interest is to ensure that it shares (develops and exports, for sale) its energy with the rest of the world over the long term.  The alternative, if things get bad enough, is war.  You want peace?  Exploit resources.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top