Liberal Minority Government 2021 - ????

[ArmyRick]

And the CPCs massive leader is gone from 6 weeks ago

https://twitter.com/x/status/1893126577950482904

First clue that Ekos is right out to lunch. PPC with 4%? No F-ing way. Maybe .4%. Take this poll with a huge dose of salt.

 

[suffolkowner]

First clue that Ekos is right out to lunch. PPC with 4%? No F-ing way. Maybe .4%. Take this poll with a huge dose of salt.

i think they got 5% last time?

 

[brihard]

First clue that Ekos is right out to lunch. PPC with 4%? No F-ing way. Maybe .4%. Take this poll with a huge dose of salt.

That’s not supported by evidence. PPC consistently poll at an average 2-3% across various firms, sometimes at 4%, occasionally at 1%, and very occasionally at 5%. There’s nothing to suggest their popular support is nearly as low as you say, even though it translates to nothing seats wise.

Canada polls | 338Canada

338canada.com

 

[Remius]

Today’s aggregate.

Another drop for CPC and LPC continues its climb.

338Canada Canada | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

338canada.com

Of note, the CPC is almost about to enter minority territory. Also a significant drop in percentage of chance to get a majority of seats. Now sitting at 87% as opposed to 99%. Also, at 54% of getting a majority gvt

Whatever reset PP was hoping for hasn’t materialized but he is still in winning territory for now.

 

[brihard]

Today’s aggregate.

Another drop for CPC and LPC continues its climb.

338Canada Canada | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

338canada.com

Of note, the CPC is almost about to enter minority territory. Also a significant drop in percentage of chance to get a majority of seats. Now sitting at 87% as opposed to 99%. Also, at 54% of getting a majority gvt

Whatever reset PP was hoping for hasn’t materialized but he is still in winning territory for now.

A look at 338’s projections versus contemporaneous polling shows that their projections, quite reasonably, reflect a training aggregation of the last few weeks’ worth of polls. That’s cautious and produent, but it also means that very fast and significant swings - if they aren’t outliers - will lag in the projections. I think the 338 projections will see LPC and CPC co to he to converge for maybe another week yet, assuming the actual polling numbers stabilize at their current level of support.

In early March we’ll have a new liberal leader and PM. Days later, Trump’s promised auto, aluminum, and steel tariffs are to take effect. That may be contemporaneous with a writ drop.

The pollsters and projectionists are going to face a challenge in trying to keep up.

 

[ArmyRick]

The pollsters and projectionists are going to face a challenge in trying to keep up.

Yup. Its the wild west in Canadian Politics right now. Each week, something unforeseen pops up, sometimes daily.

 

[GK .Dundas]

FTFY

No, sorry.
I doubt very much you could screw things up that badly deliberately .
It didn't occur overnight and took several governmentsfor it to end up this way.

Yup. Its the wild west in Canadian Politics right now. Each week, something unforeseen pops up, sometimes daily.

Translation: real life .