Liberal Minority Government 2021 - ????

[The Bread Guy]

A few more data points.

On the fundraising front, according to reports to Elections Canada, here's the total reported funds raised by the Big Three in calendar year 2024:

• Team Blue: $42.9M (Q4 Oct-Dec: $13.1M)
• Team Red: $16.4 (Q4 Oct-Dec: $5.6M)
• Team Orange: $6.4 (Q4 Oct-Dec: $2.4M)

Spreadsheet attached.

 

[brihard]

Just get it to the Great Lakes if QC isn’t interested. Ford said he’s be willing to enable an eastern pipeline.

The cost of shipment is then likely getting close to not feasible. And the added risk of ice and icebergs make this not a good option.

The main point of "Energy East" is to get product to eastern Canada, not to ship abroad from there.

Emphasis for international export neither to nor through the US should be directed to west coast facilities.

Maybe a dumb question; you guys may know better. Would it be viable to punch a pipeline to the St Lawrence seaway in Ontario, and transship it via coastal tankers from Ontario out to refineries and/or oceangoing terminals in the east? I’m not a boatologist, but it seems like if we can pump from ship to shore we should be able to pump it back into bigger ships?

 

[Remius]

Maybe a dumb question; you guys may know better. Would it be viable to punch a pipeline to the St Lawrence seaway in Ontario, and transship it via coastal tankers from Ontario out to refineries and/or oceangoing terminals in the east? I’m not a boatologist, but it seems like if we can pump from ship to shore we should be able to pump it back into bigger ships?

Not sure either which is why I suggested the same sort of thing. QV pointed out that the seaway can only accommodate 244 meter ships (my number may be off). So may be limited in how much they can carry or even if they can carry. From what I read, it is possible but might be a cost thing.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Maybe a dumb question; you guys may know better. Would it be viable to punch a pipeline to the St Lawrence seaway in Ontario, and transship it via coastal tankers from Ontario out to refineries and/or oceangoing terminals in the east? I’m not a boatologist, but it seems like if we can pump from ship to shore we should be able to pump it back into bigger ships?

Theoretically, yes. Not very practical due to size limitations. There are still risks of accidents, only they'd be happening in the waterway on the final leg rather than over land.

If QC isn't going to stop obstructing a pipeline across QC, they can stop pretending to be part of "Team Canada" only when it's convenient for them.

 

[MilEME09]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1887582098451546555

 

[lenaitch]

It strikes me that facilities and fleet needed to transfer to inland LNG tankers (do they even exist?) then to ocean-going tankers would make the exercise uncompetitive and very risky.

Never say never in politics.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-rethin-lng-saguenay-1.7451297

 

[YZT580]

Not sure either which is why I suggested the same sort of thing. QV pointed out that the seaway can only accommodate 244 meter ships (my number may be off). So may be limited in how much they can carry or even if they can carry. From what I read, it is possible but might be a cost thing.

also, don't think there are many canal sized tankers. I suppose you could build up a fleet of oil barges pretty quick but there aren't any convenient places to transship.

 

[Rifleman62]

Yeah, it's the environment Quebec says.

While Montreal has grabbed headlines for its plan to dump eight billion litres of raw sewage into the St. Lawrence River, 100 other municipalities regularly discharge their wastewater into Quebec’s waterways without treatment or filtration.

CBC has obtained a complete list of all municipalities and which river basins they dump into. The Quebec government had previously said that there were 101 municipalities, but have reduced it to 100 after further study. Source: Quebec environment department.

According to available information, the city of Montreal is the primary contributor to raw sewage entering the Gulf of St. Lawrence, dumping an estimated 900 billion liters of sewage into the St. Lawrence River annually.

 

[Quirky]

According to available information, the city of Montreal is the primary contributor to raw sewage entering the Gulf of St. Lawrence, dumping an estimated 900 billion liters of sewage into the St. Lawrence River annually.

The pipeline is going too close to Montreal and potentially impacting the drinking water (less the raw sewage but E.Coli never hurt anyone). AND the Indigenous are concerned about beluga whale populations. Can't the line just be moved if these are the issues specifically? Or is the whole east coast a drinking water source and beluga oasis?


All of this US Aid stuff has given great exposure to how much money gets pissed away to "charities" and "foundations" tied in with the ruling Liberal elite.

Grants and Contributions

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search.open.canada.ca

 

[MilEME09]

Well now, looks like the wind might be out of the CPC's sails if Mark Carney wins, CPC needs a new strategy i think

https://twitter.com/x/status/1887985688714305796

 

[ArmyRick]

Well now, looks like the wind might be out of the CPC's sails if Mark Carney wins, CPC needs a new strategy i think

https://twitter.com/x/status/1887985688714305796

I trust Nanos more than this outlier

https://nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Political-Package-2025-01-31-FOR-RELEASE.pdf

 

[Remius]

I tend to look at the aggregate. Does a better job of filtering polls by their strengths.

But make no mistake. There seems to be a shift in all polling.

 

[brihard]

I tend to look at the aggregate. Does a better job of filtering polls by their strengths.

But make bon mistake. There seems to be a shift in all polling.

Pallas last polled a month ago; their Feb 6th reflects an 11% drop from CPC +17% to COC +6%. That’s in line with the swing in all of the other comparable instances of the same polling for across time since January.

The ‘If Carney were leader’ modelling seems like quite an outlier though. It would be a further significant swing.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I tend to look at the aggregate. Does a better job of filtering polls by their strengths.

But make bon mistake. There seems to be a shift in all polling.

Same single-data-point caveat here, but if this is to be believed, Mark Carney could draw QC votes from the BQ to Team Red in a way Chrystia F. wouldn't.

Liberals are surging back in Quebec; 'Bring it on,' says leader of the Bloc

According to a new poll, the Liberal Party of Canada moved from second place in December to first place, tied with the Bloc Québécois.

nationalpost.com

A lot of the commentariat are very intrigued by this QC-only poll, saying it's just one poll, but a decent one for # of respondents, but if MC can pull from the separatists in QC, could be the dimmest glimmer of hope for Team Red if he becomes team captain.

Full Leger details (in French - done for French media) attached.

Worth watching, for sure.

 

[Remius]

Same single-data-point caveat here, but if this is to be believed, Mark Carney could draw QC votes from the BQ to Team Red in a way Chrystia F. wouldn't.

Liberals are surging back in Quebec; 'Bring it on,' says leader of the Bloc

According to a new poll, the Liberal Party of Canada moved from second place in December to first place, tied with the Bloc Québécois.

nationalpost.com

A lot of the commentariat are very intrigued by this QC-only poll, saying it's just one poll, but a decent one for # of respondents, but if MC can pull from the separatists in QC, could be the dimmest glimmer of hope for Team Red if he becomes team captain.

Full Leger details (in French - done for French media) attached.

Worth watching, for sure.

Saw that one but yes grain of salt. champagne and jolie’s appearance on Tout Le Monde en parle may have helped. They did really well and may have connected.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I tend to look at the aggregate. Does a better job of filtering polls by their strengths.

But make no mistake. There seems to be a shift in all polling.

I hate to agreed with you, but you're right.

 

[suffolkowner]

Pallas last polled a month ago; their Feb 6th reflects an 11% drop from CPC +17% to COC +6%. That’s in line with the swing in all of the other comparable instances of the same polling for across time since January.

The ‘If Carney were leader’ modelling seems like quite an outlier though. It would be a further significant swing.

combination of possibility of Carney contrasted with Trump/America situation?

 

[brihard]

combination of possibility of Carney contrasted with Trump/America situation?

Could be? The greatest common denominator seems to be Trudeau’s resignation, which seems to have led to a widely expected sentiment shift.

 

[MilEME09]

If it makes some of you feel better, Singh is polling in third place in his own riding.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Interesting age gap in polling

https://twitter.com/x/status/1887952408187138187