Robyn Urback, writing in today's Globe and Mail, says that Prime Minister Trudeau is ready to destroy his own party rather than back away from a fight with Pierre Poilievre:
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Justin Trudeau is spoiling for a fight, even if it means taking his party down with him
ROBYN URBACK
PUBLISHED 1 HOUR AGO
Pity Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who can’t so much as order a coffee in Ottawa Centre without being asked, “Cream or sugar, sir? And also: why won’t you step down?”
The question has dogged the Prime Minister for months, ever since it became clear, after the Liberals’ by-election defeat in its former stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul’s in June, that the party rescued by Mr. Trudeau more than a decade ago is now being marched into electoral oblivion by his lead.
The question lingers in part because Mr. Trudeau’s fortunes keep worsening: another by-election loss in a second Liberal bulwark in Montreal, an attempted (though flaccid) caucus coup, and ever-worsening polling and
approval data. But it lingers also because, to date, the Prime Minister hasn’t actually offered a real answer as to why he believes his party can turn a
22-point deficit into a win, and why he believes he is the person to deliver that victory.
Mr. Trudeau has given responses, to be sure. In June, CBC’s David Cochrane pointed out to the Prime Minister that Canadians weren’t particularly happy with him or his government. Mr. Trudeau replied that Canadians weren’t in “decision mode” at the time. After his party’s loss in Toronto-St. Paul’s, CBC’s Heather Hiscox
asked him about calls within his party for a new leader. “There’s always going to be lots of reflection after a tough loss, but there’s also so much to do,” he said. He didn’t address the point other than to say he was “committed” to staying on as Prime Minister. And when he was asked by his own MP, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, on his podcast why he thinks he is the best person to fight the party’s fight in the next election, he deflected. “Would they be saying that if I was 10 points ahead in the polls right now?” Mr. Trudeau said of those calling for his resignation. “I think more Canadians need to be asking [Conservative Leader Pierre] Poilievre who and what he’s fighting for other than himself and his desire to be in power.”
So why is Mr. Trudeau stubbornly clinging to his position, even though members of his
caucus,
members of his party and many Canadians have all told him they want him to go?
Is it delusion? He was the underdog once, so perhaps he thinks he can slay Goliath again. Ego? A prime minister, by nature, is someone who believes himself uniquely equipped to steer the country in a way no one else can. Precedent? Replacing a deeply unpopular leader ahead of a tough election didn’t exactly work out for the Progressive Conservative Party in 1993. Lack of coordinated internal opposition? There was a clear heir apparent when Jean Chrétien was getting pushed out the door, and MPs in his government were actually willing to put their names to their efforts to oust their leader.
Maybe it’s some combination thereof. But maybe it’s also something the Prime Minister can’t say aloud – something personal, or even petty, that yielding the floor to another Liberal Leader wouldn’t be able to satisfy: his desire to be the one to defeat Mr. Poilievre in the next election.
Anyone who has spent any time in Ottawa knows that much of what we see in the House of Commons, in committees and on the Hill is theatre. MPs will spar ruthlessly during question period, then disappear behind closed doors to share pictures of their kids and talk about the latest episode of
The Bear. But the animosity between Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre is real. It’s well known in the capital that these two genuinely don’t like each other. So when Mr. Trudeau, confronted with his bleak electoral prospects by a former cabinet minister, reportedly
replied, “I can’t wait to take on Poilievre,” he meant it.
If Mr. Trudeau were to step down now, he would preemptively be handing Mr. Poilievre a win. He would be stepping away from a much-desired fight, in effect conceding that the Conservative Leader is too popular and powerful to even attempt to challenge. How could Mr. Trudeau walk away from taking on Mr. Smarm himself, with all of his name-calling, his cheap
personal attacks and his tacky slogans?
The Prime Minister knows what the polls are saying. A new Liberal Leader could potentially reinvigorate the party, and he or she wouldn’t carry Mr. Trudeau’s personal baggage, which constituents are telling their MPs is much of the problem. But making way for a new leader wouldn’t deliver Mr. Trudeau the personal satisfaction of taking on the guy he can’t stand who’s sitting across the aisle. Maybe that’s the real answer as to why Mr. Trudeau is sticking around after all.
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Narcissistic? Delusional? Who knows? But he is, pretty clearly, determined.