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Liberal Minority Government 2021 - ????

I used rank/commission for a reason. A Major doesn’t salute a Lt. Both hold commissions but only one salutes the other.

My comparison stands regardless.
Fair, though if the intent was to express that, commission should have come before rank, as that is the primary determining factor with rank following.

I just assumed we were all piling on with pedantry, as it's about as Army.ca as a swerve into toques and gloves, or A Res restructuring... 😉
 
Fair, though if the intent was to express that, commission should have come before rank, as that is the primary determining factor with rank following.

I just assumed we were all piling on with pedantry, as it's about as Army.ca as a swerve into toques and gloves, or A Res restructuring... 😉

Episode 5 Devil GIF by PBS
 
Two related videos indicating how dire Canada's financial position is.


Listen to the number of Billions of dollars handed out:


How will it end?

Bloc ADMITS they EXPECTED to TOPPLE the Liberals - Conservatives have ANOTHER TRICK up their Sleeve!

 
Two related videos indicating how dire Canada's financial position is.


Listen to the number of Billions of dollars handed out:


How will it end?

Bloc ADMITS they EXPECTED to TOPPLE the Liberals - Conservatives have ANOTHER TRICK up their Sleeve!

Block only have that power if the NDP cede it to them. The BQ have basically set up a last-ditch safety by for LPC, but with a pretty short best by date. Once it’s clear a bill can no longer make it through in this session of Parliament, BQ will have no motivation to support. Realistically that’s probably early spring.

None of the math or strategic calculus has changed.
 

Attachments

Survey says: Who wants an election? Team Blue supporters, generally.
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How the survey was done:
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Let's see how much THIS helps ....
My guesses: practically, not much in the immediate/short term, and politically, may be too little too late.
 
Let's see how much THIS helps ....
My guesses: practically, not much in the immediate/short term, and politically, may be too little too late.

Unless there is an election sooner than later I think these moves may help him. How much is yet to be seen.
 
Davis Colette of Abacus data says:
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57% of Canadians Living in Liberal Held Ridings Want Their MP to Encourage Trudeau to Resign​

Good morning! If it’s Sunday, it’s a new Abacus Data Canadian politics poll release day.

Here’s the latest intel from our October 17 to 22 survey of 1,500 Canadians, and the headline is simple: the Conservatives continue to hold a big lead and the rising negatives for Poilievre have stopped.

If we had an election today, 44% of committed voters would back the Conservatives, compared to 22% for the Liberals, 18% for the NDP, and 5% for the Greens. That puts the Conservatives up by 22 points, with the Bloc Québécois holding its ground in Quebec.

What’s interesting is this lead is solid across most regions—Alberta, Ontario, BC, and even Atlantic Canada all show double-digit gaps between the Conservatives and Liberals.

Demographically, the Conservatives are steady across age groups and genders, and for the first time, we’re not seeing them get a ‘turnout boost’ among the most motivated voters, which means their lead might be less about enthusiasm and more about broad support.

Canadians' mood is still sour, with just 25% saying the country’s on the right track, and approval for the government inching down to 24%. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s image hasn’t budged—only 23% feel positively about him, while 60% have a negative view, a net score of -37.

We also find that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s negatives remain higher than they have historically been. Today 30% have a positive impression of Mr. Singh while 39% have a negative view for a net score of -9.

Pierre Poilievre, meanwhile, has stabilized, moving back into positive territory at +4, likely helped by the steady Conservative ad blitz, while their opponents haven’t been doing much to counter it.
Here’s what this all means: people are probably locking in their views, and right now, 52% of Canadians think the Conservatives are on track to win the next election—a jump of 9 points since the start of the year. That’s a big shift in expectations.

But here’s the twist: while more folks think a Conservative win is likely, we’re not seeing that translate into a concern or change in vote intentions.

For the Liberals to bounce back, they’ll have to tackle the tough perceptions around Trudeau, and there’s no sign that’s happening yet. Right now, even if Poilievre’s ratings slip a bit, it might not be enough.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from October 17 to 22, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20, and the data were weighted to reflect Canada’s population by age, gender, education, and region.

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But Prime Minister Justin Trudeau remains convinced that only he should lead the Liberal Party in the next (2025) election ... and he may be right. Who else is ready and able? Freeland? 😱 LeBlanc? 😴 Carney? 🫥
 
Normally they wouldn't dare, but having stuck their necks out this far, they probably have nothing to lose... except their seats.
 
Normally they wouldn't dare, but having stuck their necks out this far, they probably have nothing to lose... except their seats.
But if they they think they will lose their seats regardless then they have nothing to lose.

They could try and force the issue with this threat though.
 
Robyn Urback, writing in today's Globe and Mail, says that Prime Minister Trudeau is ready to destroy his own party rather than back away from a fight with Pierre Poilievre:

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Justin Trudeau is spoiling for a fight, even if it means taking his party down with him​

ROBYN URBACK
PUBLISHED 1 HOUR AGO

Pity Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who can’t so much as order a coffee in Ottawa Centre without being asked, “Cream or sugar, sir? And also: why won’t you step down?”

The question has dogged the Prime Minister for months, ever since it became clear, after the Liberals’ by-election defeat in its former stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul’s in June, that the party rescued by Mr. Trudeau more than a decade ago is now being marched into electoral oblivion by his lead.

The question lingers in part because Mr. Trudeau’s fortunes keep worsening: another by-election loss in a second Liberal bulwark in Montreal, an attempted (though flaccid) caucus coup, and ever-worsening polling and approval data. But it lingers also because, to date, the Prime Minister hasn’t actually offered a real answer as to why he believes his party can turn a 22-point deficit into a win, and why he believes he is the person to deliver that victory.

Mr. Trudeau has given responses, to be sure. In June, CBC’s David Cochrane pointed out to the Prime Minister that Canadians weren’t particularly happy with him or his government. Mr. Trudeau replied that Canadians weren’t in “decision mode” at the time. After his party’s loss in Toronto-St. Paul’s, CBC’s Heather Hiscox asked him about calls within his party for a new leader. “There’s always going to be lots of reflection after a tough loss, but there’s also so much to do,” he said. He didn’t address the point other than to say he was “committed” to staying on as Prime Minister. And when he was asked by his own MP, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, on his podcast why he thinks he is the best person to fight the party’s fight in the next election, he deflected. “Would they be saying that if I was 10 points ahead in the polls right now?” Mr. Trudeau said of those calling for his resignation. “I think more Canadians need to be asking [Conservative Leader Pierre] Poilievre who and what he’s fighting for other than himself and his desire to be in power.”

So why is Mr. Trudeau stubbornly clinging to his position, even though members of his caucus, members of his party and many Canadians have all told him they want him to go?

Is it delusion? He was the underdog once, so perhaps he thinks he can slay Goliath again. Ego? A prime minister, by nature, is someone who believes himself uniquely equipped to steer the country in a way no one else can. Precedent? Replacing a deeply unpopular leader ahead of a tough election didn’t exactly work out for the Progressive Conservative Party in 1993. Lack of coordinated internal opposition? There was a clear heir apparent when Jean Chrétien was getting pushed out the door, and MPs in his government were actually willing to put their names to their efforts to oust their leader.

Maybe it’s some combination thereof. But maybe it’s also something the Prime Minister can’t say aloud – something personal, or even petty, that yielding the floor to another Liberal Leader wouldn’t be able to satisfy: his desire to be the one to defeat Mr. Poilievre in the next election.

Anyone who has spent any time in Ottawa knows that much of what we see in the House of Commons, in committees and on the Hill is theatre. MPs will spar ruthlessly during question period, then disappear behind closed doors to share pictures of their kids and talk about the latest episode of The Bear. But the animosity between Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre is real. It’s well known in the capital that these two genuinely don’t like each other. So when Mr. Trudeau, confronted with his bleak electoral prospects by a former cabinet minister, reportedly replied, “I can’t wait to take on Poilievre,” he meant it.

If Mr. Trudeau were to step down now, he would preemptively be handing Mr. Poilievre a win. He would be stepping away from a much-desired fight, in effect conceding that the Conservative Leader is too popular and powerful to even attempt to challenge. How could Mr. Trudeau walk away from taking on Mr. Smarm himself, with all of his name-calling, his cheap personal attacks and his tacky slogans?

The Prime Minister knows what the polls are saying. A new Liberal Leader could potentially reinvigorate the party, and he or she wouldn’t carry Mr. Trudeau’s personal baggage, which constituents are telling their MPs is much of the problem. But making way for a new leader wouldn’t deliver Mr. Trudeau the personal satisfaction of taking on the guy he can’t stand who’s sitting across the aisle. Maybe that’s the real answer as to why Mr. Trudeau is sticking around after all.

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Narcissistic? Delusional? Who knows? But he is, pretty clearly, determined.
 
Normally they wouldn't dare, but having stuck their necks out this far, they probably have nothing to lose... except their seats.
That was the case going into caucus so I’m still betting on “not enough brave enough to vote against Team Red on a confidence vote.“. Happy to be wrong, though …
 
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