Altair
Army.ca Veteran
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I wonder what the over/under is on the green party existing next year is.
Liberal Minority Government 2019 - ????
- Thread starter garb811
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You mean if they all incentivized to cross the floor to the Liberal Party?
Altair
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I was thinking more of a membership revolt over what the party executive is doing, followed by a very poor showing in the election due to the instability, followed by disillusioned greens going NDP LPC.
But I guess the LPC could just scoop them up wholesale as well, but I would put that in the longshot odds category.
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My assessment of my local Green Party association is that they are just a minor league affiliate of the LPC.
Take that sample size of one for what you will.
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In addition to all the stuff going on at the leadership/executive level, I just don't really see the point of the Green Party (or the NDP) anymore, since the LPC has either adopted most of their positions or outflanked them to the left.
For that matter I don't even see the point in the CPC anymore as they've adopted most LPC positions.
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I agree that the LPC and their left coalition will be in power for a long time and they will continue to be highly divisive.
I doubt it will be enough for anyone to separate though.
Is there any real momentum to the western separation movement right now? I can't see any evidence that they have more than a very very small number of supporters.
Except the LPC does not feature Justin & Co.
QV
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That is hard to say. I'd reckon the discontent with Ottawa is quite high but I don't know if it's high enough for a significant push to separate. If there is a referendum on equalization, the outcome could be another indication. The next elections will be the biggest indicators. The Maverick and PPC could chip away at the CPC seats out West, but if the CPC has shifted left somewhat maybe they'll make up for those losses by picking up more centrist and left/centre voters who are disillusioned by the the Trudeau lead LPC.
Best possible outcome, IMHO, is a CPC minority forced to work with the Maverick and PPC. And the LPC smashed to new lows.
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I frankly think the CPC being smashed to new lows would be the best (within the realm of possibility) outcome to wake them up that trying to be the less incompetent version of the LPC is not the best thing for Canada or themselves. Unfortunately, what is likely to happen is LPC returned to majority government, NDP and Greens reduced greatly, and CPC reduced but not enough for them to abandon their tactic of being Liberal-lite.
They will wrongly think being Liberal-lite works, when in fact all that's happened is they've bled some votes to PPC and other "mavericks" but the majority of their votes came from people who despite O'Toole's positions but feel that they "have to vote CPC to get rid of Trudeau" or to "not split the vote".
QV
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I agree that the LPC is likely to get a majority in the next election. But with the LPC lurch to the left I think the CPC see an opportunity to lurch to the centre, which would work for them if Canada had an honest and trustworthy media in this country. But the 4th estate no longer exists.
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If there is a single member of the CPC who believes they are positioning themselves as “Liberal-lite,” they need their heads examined.
The “reasonable person” in Canada (ie. Whom the legal system believes to know, or ought to know what’s right) can’t help but think that the CPC is locomoting itself right, not left.
O’Toole Time & Co. will end up with fewer seats than in 2015, most likely…
The “reasonable person” in Canada (ie. Whom the legal system believes to know, or ought to know what’s right) can’t help but think that the CPC is locomoting itself right, not left.
O’Toole Time & Co. will end up with fewer seats than in 2015, most likely…
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Coyne had a pretty good piece in yesterday's Globe and Mail about the sanctimonious LPC and amateur hour CPC...
Altair
Army.ca Veteran
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Yes, it was a pretty good one.
Touched on a few problems for the CPC
Only 41 percent of Canadians would even consider voting for them compared to 56 percent for the LPC and 48 percent for the NDP.
The tendency of the CPC to get stuck with lifers who have don't nothing but partisan politics and a hate for the LPC.
The confidence the LPC and the left have in putting forward its policies compared to the hesitant CPC in articulating theirs.
Interestingly though, although he and many others see the issues facing the CPC he and many others, do not have any solutions for the party going forward
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I think the only reason the CPC seems to be "locomoting itself right" is because the centre has shifted so far to the left in recent years. It wasn't that long ago that the LPC got shredded trying to run on a carbon tax platform (Stéphane Dion, 2008 election), and yet now in 2021 Erin O'Toole has done a 180 on his promise to scrap the carbon tax and has proposed his own carbon pricing system (cf. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carbon-tax-conservatives-1.5988407).
That said, aside from their clear stance on carbon tax (now in favour), the CPC's positions are vague and unclear, possibly in hopes that they can't easily be pinned down with an accusation of being left or right, but I think we can see clear trends in the party's behaviour under Erin O'Toole's leadership.
While MPs with "right of centre" views have been silent (or removed from the party, such a Derek Sloan who perhaps had issues but the manner in which they turfed him was incredibly dishonest), high profile MP's with the CPC have adopted the language of the woke left, like Michelle Rempel Garner's public apology for being a white, cis-gender, heterosexual female (cf. ). The message seems to be, say unpopular right-of centre cultural things get kicked out, embrace critical race theory and get promoted (Ms Rempel-Garner was made health critic late last year, whereas Pierre Poilevre was moved out of finance critic position in February)
The CPC has completely abandoned the field when it comes to criticisms of lockdowns and rampant government overreach -- to the contrary O'Toole's few comments have been that Trudeau didn't do enough to limit civil liberties by failing to invoke the Emergencies Act. That may not be strictly left/right with, but it's certainly in favour of authoritarianism which today seems to be a leftist thing (long gone are the days of left-of-centre being liberal in the classical sense).
But, perhaps I am, as you say, "not a reasonable person". I like to think that I am, or that it's possible for reasonable people to disagree on things. I don't know you but I think a reasonable discussion about the CPC platform would be more constructive than insulting each other's intelligence/sanity.
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The CPC generally come off as moral cowards with their hesitancy, but it also lends credibility to the common media attack that they are "hiding something".
While it's true that the media in Canada is extremely left biased in general, and pro-LPC in general, I've never understood the CPC cowering fear of the media. They know that the media is going to attack them no matter what they do, so be bold and confident and give Canadians a clear vision in my view.
Brad Sallows
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Canada is different from the US, but not enough so to not be experiencing the same phenomenon: conservatives merely oscillating around some arbitrary point measuring their attitudes, or even drifting left but necessarily much more slowly than progressives.
Almost by definition, conservatives should be expected to experience attitude shifts much more slowly than progressives. I'm not sure what it that causes so many people to overlook this fundamental idea and attribute the increasing relative gap in attitudes to absolute movement on the part of conservatives.
People cherish some remarkable myths.
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Some advice offered here.
Ten things that would guarantee the new CPC leader is a winner - Macleans.ca
Scott Gilmore: So you want to be the next prime minister? Just follow my simple list—or you're a doomed fool.
www.macleans.ca
If that is true, "the party" may reject the advice offered because of who the author is, and who he is married to.
Why is that?
The biggest divide in Canadian politics? Men vs. Women. - Macleans.ca
Philippe J. Fournier: If only men voted, the Liberal and Conservatives would be in a statistical tie. Only women: the Liberals win a crushing 226 seats.
www.macleans.ca
Altair
Army.ca Veteran
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Its not so much people are overlooking that, so much as Canadian society not being in tune with that.
The CPC has every right to be the party that pumps the brakes on societal change, shifting beliefs, and the Canadian public has every right to not vote for that party. And currently 6 out of 10 Canadians are doing just that.
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well I for one haven’t hid my political background as what used to be, but no longer seems to exist, ‘small-c’ PC background, nor have I shied away from pointing out (IMO anyway) how the Reform/Canadian Alliance killed the remnants of the PCs in their effort to win it all, and set the long-term ‘shrink-right’ trend of today’s conservatives.
I and others hashed it out often, well upthread, but included elements having to positively (not begrudgingly) affirm that climate change is occurring and how best to address it locally, nationally, globally (54% vote against such a simple statement is not ‘constructive’). Also proactively affirm that issues of choice, particularly for women re: abortion, should be unquestioned as the law is clear. Another ‘own goal’ by Team Blue. Everything the CPC does seems to come a day late and/or a dollar short. O’Toole’s carbon policy isn’t bad, but imaging if it had come out as a positive, proactive policy, not a reactionary one that many coloured as a ‘kicking and screaming, getting with the times’ effort.
Anyway, I severed my formal ties with the Conservatives as, in my view, they lost the spirit of fiscal conservatives yet social progressives that was the PCs. The CPC does not represent my views enough for me to wish that Erin O’Toole takes a knee, and Rona Ambrose decides to come back. I don’t think that’ll happen though…and Peter MacKay is rightfully done with the party as well.
I’d probably have better results to my efforts joining the LPC, and being ‘that privileged, cis-male white guy’ that everyone rolls their eyes at when I put my hand up in the back corner of the room to make a point of order/something about not throwing the baby out with the non-virtuous bath water…
$0.02
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