Liberal Minority Government 2019 - ????

[Altair]

regardless, I think Albertans on a whole are proud Canadians and confederation lasts for quite some time.

Liberals likely win a few seats in Alberta in and thus Alberta gets a cabinet minister or two, transmountain gets built, and things move forward.

All this Wexit talk is a interesting conversation, but I'll actually pay attention to it if they start winning seats either provincially or federally, till then, they are down their with the Rhinoceros party in terms of me actually giving a damn about them.

 

[Altair]

There are plenty of landlocked countries in the world doing fine. One question, how would BC fair being cut off by land from the RoC?

Africa | 16 Landlocked Countries

Zambia
Mali
Niger
Ethiopia
South Sudan
Central African Republic
Chad
Burkina Faso
Uganda
Rwanda
Zimbabwe
Botswana
Burundi
Malawi
Eswatini
Lesotho

None of these are what I would call successes.

Europe | 16 Landlocked Countries

Austria
Serbia
Hungary
Slovakia
Switzerland
Belarus
North Macedonia
Czech Republic
Kosovo
Luxembourg
Moldova
Liechtenstein
Transnistria
Andorra
San Marino
Vatican City

These are more successful, mostly due to being part of or on very friendly terms with the EU.

Asia | 15 Landlocked Countries

Afghanistan
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Laos
Armenia
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Artsakh
Mongolia
Bhutan
Nepal
South Ossetia
West Bank

None of these I would call really successful. Maybe Armenia?

South America | 2 Landlocked Countries

Bolivia
Paraguay

Paraguay? Maybe?

 

[Good2Golf]

.

There are plenty of landlocked countries in the world doing fine. One question, how would BC fair being cut off by land from the RoC?

…charging AB pass-through rates for oil sands crude…they should do pretty well…and they have a lot of NG to use/export, let alone all the lumber (and pass-through of US coal to China)…

 

[Colin Parkinson]

regardless, I think Albertans on a whole are proud Canadians and confederation lasts for quite some time.

Liberals likely win a few seats in Alberta in and thus Alberta gets a cabinet minister or two, transmountain gets built, and things move forward.

All this Wexit talk is a interesting conversation, but I'll actually pay attention to it if they start winning seats either provincially or federally, till then, they are down their with the Rhinoceros party in terms of me actually giving a damn about them.

BC whether the Lower Mainlanders believe it or not is dependent on resource jobs, there are almost no new projects on the books, pretty much all you see happening is projects approved under the prior environmental legislation, eventually when the downturn hits any opinions of Central Canada and Liberals is going to tank.

 

[Altair]

.

…charging AB pass-through rates for oil sands crude…they should do pretty well…and they have a lot of NG to use/export, let alone all the lumber (and pass-through of US coal to China)…

I'm still of the opinion that BC is able to adjust to these challenges far easier than a landlocked AB.

Ports are really useful. So are trade deals.

 

[QV]

Africa | 16 Landlocked Countries

Zambia
Mali
Niger
Ethiopia
South Sudan
Central African Republic
Chad
Burkina Faso
Uganda
Rwanda
Zimbabwe
Botswana
Burundi
Malawi
Eswatini
Lesotho

None of these are what I would call successes.

Europe | 16 Landlocked Countries

Austria
Serbia
Hungary
Slovakia
Switzerland
Belarus
North Macedonia
Czech Republic
Kosovo
Luxembourg
Moldova
Liechtenstein
Transnistria
Andorra
San Marino
Vatican City

These are more successful, mostly due to being part of or on very friendly terms with the EU.

Asia | 15 Landlocked Countries

Afghanistan
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Laos
Armenia
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Artsakh
Mongolia
Bhutan
Nepal
South Ossetia
West Bank

None of these I would call really successful. Maybe Armenia?

South America | 2 Landlocked Countries

Bolivia
Paraguay

Paraguay? Maybe?

Compare 1st world to 1st world for a better assessment.

 

[QV]

.

…charging AB pass-through rates for oil sands crude…they should do pretty well…and they have a lot of NG to use/export, let alone all the lumber (and pass-through of US coal to China)…

So that goes both ways. I wonder, would BC and AB both do better if AB separated?

 

[Altair]

BC whether the Lower Mainlanders believe it or not is dependent on resource jobs, there are almost no new projects on the books, pretty much all you see happening is projects approved under the prior environmental legislation, eventually when the downturn hits any opinions of Central Canada and Liberals is going to tank.

Sure. If this happens, and the Wexit parties start gaining momentum because of it, maybe its worth talking about.

We don't talk about Quebec separatists because of some hypothetical separatists parties, holding hypothetical ridings and sending hypothetical members to Ottawa and Quebec city. we do because there are actually separatist parties, holding actual seats in Parliament and the National Assembly, who have on two occasions brought forward plebiscites on leaving Canada.

Wexit has a lot of work to do to get any street cred.

 

[Altair]

Compare 1st world to 1st world for a better assessment.

Not really.

Compare apples to apples, oranges to oranges.

In terms of African countries, are the landlocked nations better than the ones with access to coastlines?

No.

In terms of Asian countries, are the landlocked nations better than the ones with access to coastlines?

No.

In terms of South American countries, are the landlocked nations better than the ones with access to coastlines?

No.

In terms of European countries, are the landlocked nations better than the ones with access to coastlines?

Largely the same, minus those who are not in the EU, or have close ties to the EU, then no.

 

[Remius]

Compare 1st world to 1st world for a better assessment.

What you should look are countries that separated that were landlocked. I think Kosovo might and South Sudan are two examples. Most countries that have seceded were not landlocked.

 

[Good2Golf]

So that goes both ways. I wonder, would BC and AB both do better if AB separated?

Both ways?

BC will be into the next wave of energy, leveraging hydroelectricity to hydrolyze natural gas and CO2 into sustainable e-fuels well before Alberta can figure out a ‘friendly way’ to twist BC’s arm enough to be in a better position that it is now.

 

[QV]

Both ways?

BC will be into the next wave of energy, leveraging hydroelectricity to hydrolyze natural has and CO2 into sustainable e-fuels well before Alberta can figure out a ‘friendly way’ to twist BC’s arm enough to be in a better position that it is now.

So nothing else goes to and from the RoC to BC where they would have to negotiate transit through AB for?

 

[Altair]

What you should look are countries that separated that were landlocked. I think Kosovo might and South Sudan are two examples. Most countries that have seceded were not landlocked.

Because being langlocked as a new nation leaves you at the mercy of your neighbours and those you just left.

Its a precarious situation. How do you make a trade deal? Your goods are at the mercy of your neighbours, so are the imports of the country you negotiated with.

 

[QV]

Not really.

Compare apples to apples, oranges to oranges.

In terms of African countries, are the landlocked nations better than the ones with access to coastlines?

No.

In terms of Asian countries, are the landlocked nations better than the ones with access to coastlines?

No.

In terms of South American countries, are the landlocked nations better than the ones with access to coastlines?

No.

In terms of European countries, are the landlocked nations better than the ones with access to coastlines?

Largely the same, minus those who are not in the EU, or have close ties to the EU, then no.

Your framing the question to suit the answer. "Are landlocked third world nations in Africa better than those with access to coastlines?"

Your last point about Euro nations is more relevant to the situation we are discussing.

 

[Altair]

So nothing else goes to and from the RoC to BC where they would have to negotiate transit through AB for?

In terms of leverage, AB has precious little. What goes from the ROC to BC and vice versa that cannot be sourced from the USA?

What goes from the RoC to BC and vice versa that cannot be aquired via sea routes?

 

[Altair]

Your framing the question to suit the answer. "Are landlocked third world nations in Africa better than those with access to coastlines?"

Your last point about Euro nations is more relevant to the situation we are discussing.

Are landlocked third world countries better than third world countries with access to coastline? Answer, no.

I don't see AB separating bringing about the north american political version of the EU.

 

[Altair]

I do find it interesting that every discussion about AB separating goes along the same lines.

AB separating will bring BC with it.

No it wont.

Thats fine, AB doesn't need BC, we will be fine on our own.

No you wont.

AB can cause BC a lot of pain.

Sure, but Canada will cause AB a lot more pain than AB will bring on BC.

That's fine!

Why does AB want to separate again?

So we can be independent and get our resources to market without Ottawa getting in the way!

Hmmm....

 

[QV]

I wouldn't discount WEXIT in what ever form it takes (AB alone, or AB/SK...etc). The West has been the economic driver of this nation for a long time and it seems to many that policies of the East are unfair and hell bent on suppressing the Western economy. When it gets to a point where it's more costly to stay than go (equalization/fundamental changes to rights/freedoms), it could move pretty fast.

It's about much more than just resources to market, but the US would likely love a closer trading relationship with resource rich territories such as AB and/or SK. There was a time when the West "wanted in", but I think years of snubbing and the present political environment have shifted that attitude.

The Wildrose party is gaining momentum and the Maverick and PPC are on the map as far as polling goes, so I wouldn't write this off entirely, the next elections will say a lot. As Brad S states there are warning signs.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Oil industry was about 7% of AB's economy from figures I last checked. Not negligible, but not a deal-breaker.

Any conceivable separation scenario is still many years away. Would-be separatists could best spend their time by debating what a new nation should look like: Federalist Papers, Mk II.

 

[Brad Sallows]

AB can cause BC a lot of pain.
Sure, but Canada will cause AB a lot more pain than AB will bring on BC.
That's fine!

Because it is fine. Inflicting damage on people doesn't drive them to surrender; it drives them to resist. All AB or SK has to do is maintain cordial relationships with bordering US states and they'd muddle through. Coastal British Columbians would hate AB more; interior BC'ers, I'm much less sure about. Those in Peace River country already feel closer to Albertans than West Coasters.

Imagining a complete cutoff of oil deliveries from AB to BC is worth working through to estimate just who would feel more pressure from tit-for-tat.