Iran Super Thread- Merged

[George Wallace]

I wonder if iran has a bunch of sea mines that are untraceable that they could litter the Strait with, just the threat of mines alone will curtail naval movements, comercial shipping and drive up the cost of insurance. It wouldn't take many to create a perceived threat greater that the actual risk.

Abu Muza comes to mind.

 

[tomahawk6]

Iran tried mining before and it didnt work out so well for them.

 

[Flip]

I found this on a blog. Interesting background, assuming it's true.

Here's the link http://alfin2100.blogspot.com/

Iran Growing Desperate, and Dangerous
Even oil at $140 a barrel cannot save the unfortunate country of Iran, sinking under the stone aged mindset of its leadership.
Events in Iran since the Revolution are an eery echo of what has happened in Venezuela since the advent of Chavez. Skilled workers and foreign capital and technology have fled. Corruption has become rampant along with incompetence. Production of over 6 mb/d fell to below 3 mb/d after the Revolution and is currently about 3.8 mb/d. The pre-revolutionary head count of 32,000 employees has grown to 112,000.

Since the Revolution Iran has exported $801.2 billion of oil but nobody knows where that money has gone. “Certainly none of it was invested in Iranian oil infrastructure which badly needs renovation and repair, upstream and downstream.” The author claims the Iranian petro-industry is “on the brink of bankruptcy” although such a claim is not documented.

It is clear that Iran, Venezuela, Mexico, Nigeria, and Iraq together represent an enormous percentage of the world’s oil deposits and production that is being mismanaged. The political and management dysfunctions in all of these countries simultaneously is a major reason for the world’s current energy crisis. If these countries all operated in a standard capitalist mode, I suspect oil would be below $50 a barrel _


http://alfin2100.blogspot.com/


_

 

[TheSaint]

Iran Growing Desperate, and Dangerous
Even oil at $140 a barrel cannot save the unfortunate country of Iran, sinking under the stone aged mindset of its leadership.
Events in Iran since the Revolution are an eery echo of what has happened in Venezuela since the advent of Chavez. Skilled workers and foreign capital and technology have fled. Corruption has become rampant along with incompetence. Production of over 6 mb/d fell to below 3 mb/d after the Revolution and is currently about 3.8 mb/d. The pre-revolutionary head count of 32,000 employees has grown to 112,000.

Echos of Venezuela?

People are always being led by US propaganda in regards to Venezuela. I suggest watching a documentary called  "The War on Democracy" by Pilager to get a different perspective on what's happening in South America. The only thing that Chavez has done "wrong" in the eyes of the US is cut down on large multi-national corporations basically raping his people of their own wealth and exporting it for their own well being. The rich in Venezuela are the only ones that have anything to lose by having him in power (and most of them are now living in Florida). All this garbage about human rights violations etcetera is trumped up propaganda to try and oust Chavez and install a corporate friendly regime. The US sponsored  a FAILED coup in 2002....where Chavez's own people rose up and re-installed him because they know he is on their side. As we all know the US has intervened on numerous occasions to oust Democratic leadership as well as dictatorships in South America- basically ousting whomever is not friendly to foreign corporate interests. There's a list of such countries if you care to look it up.

Here I did it for you.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_sponsored_regime_change

Maybe the article is correct in that the propaganda coming from the US is similar to that used against Venezuela. That's the only echo I see. That and the need to secure energy for BP and Exxon and any other multi-nationals. Yes, Iran has called for the end of Israel...no kidding...they don't like having a country arbitrarily placed in the middle of a bunch of Muslim countries and propped up by over 300 000 000 US$ a year in military funding from our benign Southern neighbor. Not to mention the fact that Israel was given nuke technology by them. Israel now has over 200 warheads it is estimated and are constantly threatening Iran with air strikes. Who is in the right is a pretty grey area since both sides have taken verbal potshots at each other.  I tend to look at things from an un-biased point of view. Both sides are causing me to pay much more for gas than I should have to given supply and demand oil fundamentals with their bickering. Iran could simply stop enriching uranium for whatever purpose and end things quickly, or, Israel could realize the hypocracy of asking Iran to not do something they have already done. Asking a whole Nation to stop nuclear research is a massive scientific handicap for the students and researchers of Iran, and based on paranoia. Iran isn't going to use nukes even if they had them. They're not stupid, they don't want to die. They know that no matter how many they build they won't have more than the US or the means to send them there. The only reason I can see that Iran wants nuclear weaponry, is to stall any pre-emptive strike by the US to gain control of their energy supplies. I mean they just watched the Country next door go down for that reason so if anyone should be paranoid, it's them. As you can see, Iran wants nukes for the same reason as Israel, to ensure their survival in the Middle East. If you can't see that you're blinded by the "News" (propaganda) coming out of Washington.

 

[Scott]

Methinks I have seen this line of posting before...

Further, methinks you had underscores at he beginning and end of your name before...

As well, the two accounts seem to post from the same place...

Spidey senses tingling.

Care to set my mind at ease?

 

[vonGarvin]

Using wikipedia as a source is suspect at best.

 

[wannabe SF member]

I thought this might interest some of you.

Iran to ready thousands of graves for enemy soldiers
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/080629/world/iran_military_us_israel_1

 

[1feral1]

Asking a whole Nation to stop nuclear research is a massive scientific handicap for the students and researchers of Iran, and based on paranoia. Iran isn't going to use nukes even if they had them. They're not stupid, they don't want to die. They know that no matter how many they build they won't have more than the US or the means to send them there. The only reason I can see that Iran wants nuclear weaponry, is to stall any pre-emptive strike by the US to gain control of their energy supplies. I mean they just watched the Country next door go down for that reason so if anyone should be paranoid, it's them. As you can see, Iran wants nukes for the same reason as Israel, to ensure their survival in the Middle East. If you can't see that you're blinded by the "News" (propaganda) coming out of Washington.

Dear Sir, without directly attacking you, which is against site policy, I will humbly admit that you seem to be one sided and full of anti US spin of life.  The 'blood for oil' died in the ass long ago.

I am paying $AUD1.55/L.

You seem to have it all covered on leftist conspiracy theories, next you'll be saying the attack on the pentagon was done by a missle, not an aircraft.

Do you actually beleive that Iran wants nuclear weapons to guarantee their survival in the middle east? Crikey, I thought I heard it all until now.

As the regime of Iran openly says they only want nuclear enegery for peaceful purposes (which I think is crap - they want nukes) - its our lives and the lives of other westerners which are at stake. If you refuse to comprehend this, we'll thats up to you, and you can live with the consequences

Put on your tinfoil hat, because diplomacy is about to be delivered in HE.

I rest my case.

Have a good day wherever you are.

 

[TheSaint]

Do you actually beleive that Iran wants nuclear weapons to guarantee their survival in the middle east? Crikey, I thought I heard it all until now.

Yes, I believe that. They want them because they've seen that North Korea is being handled with kid gloves since they joined the nuclear club. Having this capability is the only insurance against US or other foreign attack.

Do you really believe that they're going to "nuke" Israel the moment they have the means to do it? And then face a return fire that ends their way of life?

I don't think so. Even Ahmadinejad wants to live.

 

[1feral1]

I don't post that much anymore, but I could not resist replying.

No, I don't think Isreal is the intended victim at first, but I will say that once a bomb is made, the sale or donation of such a device to a radical islamic front, or rogue terrorist force is very possible and likely.

That being any western city is the potential victim. Thats scares me, and it should you.

We are dealing with a mentality of 12 century, with 2007 technology (radical islam, including the current Iranian regime), and these nutcases are NOT afraid to use it, for they love death as much as you and I love life. After all, we are the Great Satan.

As much as Israel is truly hated not only by Iran, but numerous other islamic countries (even Iraq in the pre 2003 invasion).

Persons with a simple Israeli travel visa in their passports were not even allowed in Iraq, regardless where you came from, or who you were. Although I spent 7 months in post liberated Iraq in 2006-2007, I have seen and I am in possession of Iraqi governement documenation proving such. I am sure other islamic nations have the same restrictions.

I have personally seen what these people do to their own kind, through mindless cowardly slaughter of anyone who gets in their way.  I've lived it, and did not read that in any one sided paper or magazine.

 

[wannabe SF member]

I don't think so. Even Ahmadinejad wants to live.

Do not be so sure. Ahmadinejad is part of the Ojjatieh sect. When you know that Shias have a tendency to be the more radical in this religion. The Ojjatieh are the extreme. As a matter of fact, it is a cult that is considered to be so radical that it was banned in 1983 In Iran by Ayatollah Khomeini.

The Hojjatieh believe that a certain deemed to be a successor to Mohamed (the prophet) called Mahdi remains in a deathless state in a well. According to their belief, when he awakes, it will usher a new era of peace for Islam as it vanquishes all of it's enemies.. But, for him to awaken, his arrival must be preceded by a state of complete chaos and destruction in the world and this destruction must be wrought by man.

Basically they believes that in order to summon Mahdi, a man-made apocalypse must first happen.

Ahmadinejad believes firmly in this ideology. He is in power and wants to acquire nuclear  capabilities. With these kinds of beliefs, I do not believe that he wants them for "peaceful purposes". I am very afraid that him and his closed cicle of  Hojjatief friends (who are all ministers of his cabinet) will try to bring about this apocalypse.

So no, I don't think Ahmadinejad is afraid to use Nukes in fear or retaliation because he believes that as a fiathful, he and his kind shall be protected.

Scary stuff people... Scary stuff

 

[drunknsubmrnr]

If Ahmadinejad is all that serious about attacking Israel, and he has authority over the missiles, why hasn't he attacked yet with special weapons? Iran has access to nerve agents, anthrax etc. A counter-population strike with those would probably work better than a small number of nuclear devices.

 

[George Wallace]

Asking a whole Nation to stop nuclear research is a massive scientific handicap for the students and researchers of Iran, and based on paranoia. Iran isn't going to use nukes even if they had them. They're not stupid, they don't want to die. They know that no matter how many they build they won't have more than the US or the means to send them there. The only reason I can see that Iran wants nuclear weaponry, is to stall any pre-emptive strike by the US to gain control of their energy supplies. I mean they just watched the Country next door go down for that reason so if anyone should be paranoid, it's them. As you can see, Iran wants nukes for the same reason as Israel, to ensure their survival in the Middle East. If you can't see that you're blinded by the "News" (propaganda) coming out of Washington.

I guess from your post, that you have absolutely no idea about nuclear weapons.  You seem to be of the opinion that nuclear weapons are delivered solely by means of a missile system.  You are wrong.  They can be delivered by a multitude of means, including in a suitcase.  Tactically, Backpack Nukes were employed by the US from 1966 to 1988.  That is were one has to wonder to what extent the Iranians are developing their Nuclear Programs. 

As Overwatch Downunder has pointed out, these are major concerns.

 

[drunknsubmrnr]

The SADM device is a lot larger than a suitcase, requires extremely advanced nuclear engineering and is only good for less than a year once assembled. In terms of Iran, it's a non-threat and will be for years.

In any case, device origin can be traced through fissile isotope analysis. If "somebody" was able to smuggle a device into a city and initiate it, the country of origin would be identified inside 24 hours. It would probably cease to exist a couple of hours after that.

 

[GAP]

I suspect that if anything nuclear is going to happen it come from the former USSR stock. There are vast amounts unaccounted for and all it is going to take is $$ and the will....

These will not likely be the nice clean explosions we are all used to seeing in the documentaries....but a dirty bomb....

 

[a_majoor]

If Ahmadinejad is all that serious about attacking Israel, and he has authority over the missiles, why hasn't he attacked yet with special weapons? Iran has access to nerve agents, anthrax etc. A counter-population strike with those would probably work better than a small number of nuclear devices.

Sending Hammas and Hezbollah tons of cash, explosives and artillery rockets seems to be doing the trick for now, plus it has the advantage of "deniability" for Al Jezeera and certain audiences in the West..........

 

[brihard]

So what happens if the U.S. or Israel goes after Iran's program, and in retaliation Iran puts three or four supertankers at the bottom of the straights of Hormuz, and fires the rest of their missile inventory at various oil infrastructure around the Gulf? Iran is beautifully sited to cause economic disruption on an unparallelled scale should they feel the need. Imagine 1979 again, except with someone actively slinging missiles at tankers and refineries... Not a nice thought.

 

[George Wallace]

So what happens if the U.S. or Israel goes after Iran's program, and in retaliation Iran puts three or four supertankers at the bottom of the straights of Hormuz, and fires the rest of their missile inventory at various oil infrastructure around the Gulf? Iran is beautifully sited to cause economic disruption on an unparallelled scale should they feel the need. Imagine 1979 again, except with someone actively slinging missiles at tankers and refineries... Not a nice thought.

A great way to totally alienate yourself from your oil producing Arab neighbours and ruin their economies in an attempt to cripple the West, who have other oil suppliers in North and South America, the North Sea, former Warsaw Pact countries, etc.

 

[brihard]

A great way to totally alienate yourself from your oil producing Arab neighbours and ruin their economies in an attempt to cripple the West, who have other oil suppliers in North and South America, the North Sea, former Warsaw Pact countries, etc.

Most certainly- but at that point, what does Ahmedinejad (sp?) have left to lose? Any U.S. attack, regardless of the ultimate outcome, can't have good consequences for him personally. Hell, in his twisted mind he might see such an act as a focal point for a greater coalescing of Islamic radicalism, with him as a sort of hero to them. He might not even be wrong; somebody who so blatantly attacked the interests of the U.S. and of the more westernized Gulf states would have a lot of radical sympathizers.

I'm not suggesting that Iran would have anything to gain from such a scenario, but nor do I trust that her leadership is sane enough not to pursue such a course if backed into a corner. Bear in mind also that Saudi Arabia's current prosperity is a direct result of the 1973 oil crisis and the resultant spike in prices. Even a lot of the official noise in such a scenario may be just that- official noise.

Hopefully we don't have to find out- but I see the scuttling of oil tankers as one of the most likely repercussions of an attack on Iran. It's certainly within their capabilities; if the ability of a carrier group to stop a swarm of Silkworm missiles is in doubt, a lone super tanker hasn't a chance.

 

[TheSaint]

So what happens if the U.S. or Israel goes after Iran's program, and in retaliation Iran puts three or four supertankers at the bottom of the straights of Hormuz, and fires the rest of their missile inventory at various oil infrastructure around the Gulf? Iran is beautifully sited to cause economic disruption on an unparallelled scale should they feel the need. Imagine 1979 again, except with someone actively slinging missiles at tankers and refineries... Not a nice thought.

Exactly.

Benefits of attacking Iran:

-  MAY end POTENTIAL threat to Israel from nukes (although this may cause Iran to seek Nukes for real and some Nuclear sites may be hidden)

Negative Consequences:

-  enflames Middle East (and the World) with anti-US sentiment
-  Israel (who had thus far stayed out of the fray by letting the U.S. military do the heavy lifting) is attacked by Hezbollah in a coordinated  and large scale effort (maybe even chemical or biological attack).
- Many US and Israeli planes will be shot down as Iran has much better air defense than Iraq and has been aquiring modern anti-air capability.
- the Iranian Navy seals off the Persian Gulf and all its oil from the rest of the world. They then mine the area.
- cost of oil....300-400$ a barrel (maybe more who knows)
- thousands of rockets hit Tel Aviv and Jerusalem fired by Hezbollah and Iran with casualties in the thousands
- Possibly the first sinking of a US Navy ship in a loooong time with major casualties.
- becomes a never ending war as Iran has three times the population of Iraq and terrain is perfect for guerilla efforts
- possibility of another Sept. 11th as Iran has already said in the event of such an attack it will find means to attack the US Homeland
- sleeper cells already in strategic locations in US attack
- large Iranian population in Canada is upset and worried for relatives in their country
- Iran has had years to prepare, therefore, there will be consequences that can't be imagined

* due to inflation OUR way of life comes to an end

**ths is all just hypothesizing, however, look what happens when you don't think of the worst case scenarios ie. Iraq

Does the one semi-tangible benefit outweigh the rest? Only the current US Administration can answer that one.