Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Retired AF Guy]

Well the lightsaber is in the works. v.1 was created a few years ago. Work in progress though.

Every bank robber will now want one!

 

[Retired AF Guy]

I'm feeling a tad bit validated after being viciously attacked by my peers in 2006ish for expressing regret Canada did not choose to contribute to BMD. My argument at the time that even if it wasn't 100pc, the data exchange benefits alone would help other areas. Well, this certainly proves the investment did have a payoff.

I don't remember seeing anything in last weeks Defence Update about it either.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I wonder what would happen if Iran hit that with a missle.

Well might give an excuse to return it back into a temple

 

[daftandbarmy]

If I were a betting person, I'd wager on seeing the Israelis hit the Iranian nuclear program in retaliation. If so I'd name it Operation 'THANK YOU FOR GIVING US THE EXCUSE'

Israeli Air Force Holds Massive Drills To Hit ‘Remote’ Targets; Expert Says Iran’s Nuke Facilities On Radar​

Israeli Air Force Holds Massive Drills To Hit 'Remote' Targets; Expert Says Iran’s Nuke Facilities On Radar

The secret exercise by the Israeli Air Force (IsAF) over the Cypriot air space with elements of US support suggests Tel Aviv always anticipated Iran to retaliate after it bombed Tehran’s embassy in the Syrian capital of Damascus. India ‘Cuts Down’ Russian Presence; Will Redeploy Defense Attaches...

www.eurasiantimes.com

 

[brihard]

If I were a betting person, I'd wager on seeing the Israelis hit the Iranian nuclear program in retaliation. If so I'd name it Operation 'THANK YOU FOR GIVING US THE EXCUSE'

Israeli Air Force Holds Massive Drills To Hit ‘Remote’ Targets; Expert Says Iran’s Nuke Facilities On Radar​

Israeli Air Force Holds Massive Drills To Hit 'Remote' Targets; Expert Says Iran’s Nuke Facilities On Radar

The secret exercise by the Israeli Air Force (IsAF) over the Cypriot air space with elements of US support suggests Tel Aviv always anticipated Iran to retaliate after it bombed Tehran’s embassy in the Syrian capital of Damascus. India ‘Cuts Down’ Russian Presence; Will Redeploy Defense Attaches...

www.eurasiantimes.com

A lot of Iran’s nuclear program is deep underground. Israel has the ability to hit some components of it, but certainly not all. Just as Israel has invested heavily in the ability to defeat ballistic missiles, Iran has undoubtedly worked hard to put its nuclear program as out of reach as possible.

 

[GR66]

The rest of the World wouldn't like it, but taking out Iran's oil distribution facilities would limit their ability to fund their terrorist proxies and cause financial hardship at home that might stir up further domestic unrest.

 

[brihard]

The rest of the World wouldn't like it, but taking out Iran's oil distribution facilities would limit their ability to fund their terrorist proxies and cause financial hardship at home that might stir up further domestic unrest.

For a little while, sure. Israel will be looking for how to keep some of the restored support and goodwill Iran’s attack will have bought them in the global community. Fuel price spikes would erode that.

Calculating the right, achievable, reprisal for this will be tricky. Maybe we’ll finally see that Iranian spy ship in the Red Sea go away?

 

[MilEME09]

For a little while, sure. Israel will be looking for how to keep some of the restored support and goodwill Iran’s attack will have bought them in the global community. Fuel price spikes would erode that.

Calculating the right, achievable, reprisal for this will be tricky. Maybe we’ll finally see that Iranian spy ship in the Red Sea go away?

If you strike refineries, it could actually force global prices to drop as iran would need to export more crude to be refined, and import refined fuel.

 

[Good2Golf]

Calculating the right, achievable, reprisal for this will be tricky. Maybe we’ll finally see that Iranian spy ship in the Red Sea go away?

By ‘spy ship’ you mean the big honking container ship with lots of antennas and dabits for launching and recovering a variety of fast small craft, that’s been anchored for years right in the middle of the Strait of Hormuz for everyone to see?

 

[Cloud Cover]

They’ve got a C2 ship in the Red Sea, I believe.

Whatever Israel does for a retaliation, it should include some action on the part of the G7 to seize Iranian assets, liquidate them and use the proceeds to pay for the cost of yesterdays air defence “exercise with live ammunition.”

 

[Fishbone Jones]

A lot of Iran’s nuclear program is deep underground. Israel has the ability to hit some components of it, but certainly not all. Just as Israel has invested heavily in the ability to defeat ballistic missiles, Iran has undoubtedly worked hard to put its nuclear program as out of reach as possible.

I wonder if they have access to MOP munitions. The GBU-57 is supposed to be able to penetrate 200' of concrete. However, that one is fairly new (2023?) and requires (I think) a B2 bomber to carry it. There are other MOPs that can be carried by the likes of the F-15 though and might be more easily obtainable. It probably depends how much the US is willing to support Israel, I suppose.

 

[suffolkowner]

I see a lot of internet postings that Israel does not have the ability to conduct adequate SEAD for airstrikes into Iranian nuclear facilities etc..
Is this everyones opinion as well?

 

[Good2Golf]

They’ve got a C2 ship in the Red Sea, I believe.

Whatever Israel does for a retaliation, it should include some action on the part of the G7 to seize Iranian assets, liquidate them and use the proceeds to pay for the cost of yesterdays air defence “exercise with live ammunition.”

You’re right, CC, M/V Behshad is cruising the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. It had previously been hanging around the Strait of Hormuz while the previous Red Sea-based ‘non-IRGC’ shop, the M/V Savis was working the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

 

[Cloud Cover]

You’re right, CC, M/V Behshad is cruising the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. It had previously been hanging around the Strait of Hormuz while the previous Red Sea-based ‘non-IRGC’ shop, the M/V Savis.

That’s the one. Emergency SWIMEX.

 

[brihard]

You’re right, CC, M/V Behshad is cruising the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. It had previously been hanging around the Strait of Hormuz while the previous Red Sea-based ‘non-IRGC’ shop, the M/V Savis.

That’s the one.

I wonder if they have access to MOP munitions. The GBU-57 is supposed to be able to penetrate 200' of concrete. However, that one is fairly new (2023?) and requires (I think) a B2 bomber to carry it. There are other MOPs that can be carried by the likes of the F-15 though and might be more easily obtainable. It probably depends how much the US is willing to support Israel, I suppose.

I’m sure they’ve maxed out their ability to put penetrators under F-15s or F-35s, but we’re talking an order of magnitude in munitions weight between the 37s and 57s.

 

[MilEME09]

I see a lot of internet postings that Israel does not have the ability to conduct adequate SEAD for airstrikes into Iranian nuclear facilities etc..
Is this everyones opinion as well?

The other aspect is their largest deep earth penetrator would need to be delivered via F15 to actually hit any nuclear facilities. This means risk because f35 can't do the strike.

 

[lenaitch]

A lot of Iran’s nuclear program is deep underground. Israel has the ability to hit some components of it, but certainly not all. Just as Israel has invested heavily in the ability to defeat ballistic missiles, Iran has undoubtedly worked hard to put its nuclear program as out of reach as possible.

Didn't Maverick already figure that out with a nap-of-the-earth approach, a Star Wars-y launch and a high-g exit?

 

[dapaterson]

Interesting hypothesis: expending 331 pieces of ordinance to gain detailed intelligence on enemy AD capabilities, deployments, and allied support was a worthwhile exchange.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779426300760850642

 

[brihard]

The other aspect is their largest deep earth penetrator would need to be delivered via F15 to actually hit any nuclear facilities. This means risk because f35 can't do the strike.

I’m not sure what the biggest penetrator the F-35I can carry internally is, but I have to imagine Iran knows and plans around it.

 

[brihard]

Interesting hypothesis: expending 331 pieces of ordinance to gain detailed intelligence on enemy AD capabilities, deployments, and allied support was a worthwhile exchange.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779426300760850642

Possible, but Israel will know this too.