Iran Super Thread- Merged
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Colin Parkinson
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Iraq had two+ problems, a Shiite milita that was aligned with Iranian interests and a Sunni population that was awaiting retribution. Nobody expected the Baathists and Islamic nutbars to make peace and work together like they did and to be fair ISIS did a excellent job in neutering the elite before even coming out. Coupled with Shiite power groups duking it out, trying to curry and reject Iranian influence at the same time, Shiites distrust and hatred to Sunni's and vis versa. Along with trying to suppress Kurdish nationalism, it was one messy bowel of poop.
I don’t think that the power vacuum that Darsh emerged into was always there. How long has it been since Iraq has a sovereign, relatively stable (if awful) government? What happened to it?
Iraqis may have a somewhat different perspective on what they owe the west and what they ought to be grateful for.
Iraqis may have a somewhat different perspective on what they owe the west and what they ought to be grateful for.
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Airspace being closed.
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More from the media with some chronology of recent/today’s happenings:
news.sky.com
Middle East latest: Iran launches drones at Israel and they will arrive within hours, IDF says
Iran has launched "pilotless aircraft" at Israel, the Israeli military has said. Delivering a televised statement, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari says Israel is "well prepared" for the attack.
news.sky.com
Drones are a long and slow hit, and the Shaheds have shown to be pretty easy to intercept. I’m waiting to see if there’s more than this. A wave of Shaheds is not, really, a serious strike at Israel. Could be it’s intended to simply satisfy revenge optics, or as part of a larger ‘time on target’ approach with other munitions to be launched in the coming hours.
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Hard to say, but I think the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus was a clear “we know you were behind inciting Hamas to 7 Oct, and we’re done letting you mess about the M.E. by proxy…
Staff Weenie
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CNN (taken with a grain of salt) is citing Israeli sources saying there are over 100 drones, mixed with cruise missiles.
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Israel's been looking to take the gloves off with Iran for a while. This might be the impetus for a larger strike on Iran proper.
Timing checks out. They’ll be trying to overwhelm air defences with all the drones and with slower cruise missiles and hoping some MRBMs can make it through.
I’ve read of US/UK making intercepts over Jordan. Separately, reports of Houthi launches. All unconfirmed but plausible.
GR66
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And what will Hezbollah do?
That’s a great question.
Iran’s delegation to the UN seems to be claiming this is a one and done in reprisal for Damascus, which much checks out. If Israel comes out of this unscathed they may even simply mock Iran but let things simmer down, at least in plain sight.
GR66
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I hope you're right but what country will allow another country to directly attack their territory and not respond?
Israel is very good at tailoring responses to larger strategic ends, and not all responses need be kinetic. If Israel punches back it’ll be very calculated. If Israel does not punch back it will likely be even more calculated.
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