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Hybrid Electric Vehicles
- Thread starter Kirkhill
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Or I could wait for the R3X launch while I payoff my current car and then simply buy one when it's readily available and I have the room to make car payments. I like cars. But I also like not having more car payments than I need. Admittedly an old fashioned trait given how many people these days are happy to just lease in perpetuity.
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Once the subsidies go away (which they are) the costs start piling up. The average citizen realizes they don't have the money to buy, operate and maintain one.
Not really, but sort of in a round about way. Most of the large fleets of delivery are running electric motorcycles and or three wheelers over seas. Great idea, but far from the replacement of 1 for 1 your talking about. That's an entire discussion on economics and geographic locations.
If your trying to convince the "heads" or lack of competent people here of any part of your discussion these are questions the avrage joe is asking. Has yet to be given an answer by those "experts" out there.
I have a couple of friends who work for BC Hydro at the executive level. They jumped on the green band wagon themselves. But they actually do not know how with current power production and current future projects they have planned are going to be able to provide power for all the vehicle chargers, let alone all the electric powered heat pumps. To the point they have asked for slow down if not stop to many of the plans of the BC government going forward with their elimination of ICE vehicles. When asked about the installation of power lines and sub stations, they were pretty mute on the point.
LOL.
All one has to do is look at current infrastructure installed, limits of power generation currently. Compare that to what is required for new house builds requiring heat pumps, double that for vehicle chargers and one is in the ball park. Then look at the Peak load of the system, one has to wonder how many brownouts there will be in the near future.
Assumptions are funny aren't they. I don't doubt your expertise in the matter, but I tend to sway away from those who stand to gain substantially from these projects. those technologists and scientists are similar to an Architect who design a house/ building. Looks great, works well on the simulations. Until you put it all together and piece A doesn't fit into piece D with out re doing C,D,E,F and G. those weren't accounted for in the original build. He was a design architect not a electrical, fluid engineer.
I am curious where you got your figure on 20 years for car fleets to roll over. Electric vehicle's have been around for 100 years, I guess were a bit slow on that roll over.
The Green movement is the only reason why many are switching over.
Many others on here also.
Forced, needed or wanted. Difference in how things move.
When I have time I will look at that.
The starting assumption of all critics. Based on their perspective from here. And fundamentally misunderstanding how volume pricing works. We now have decades worth of data that shows for every doubling of global battery manufacturing capacity, the price drops about 8%. This is a classic learning curve (Wright's Law). The subsidies have aimed to increase production to bring prices down here to the same level as China by matching volumes in the West. Our subsidies go away and all that happens is that our prices stay where they are. It doesn't move global battery price trends. The Rest of the World will keep building battery plants and cutting prices.
Not sure what your point is. A switch from a motorcycle to an electric one is still a switch. And the fact that they are already at 38% for last mile, going to 60% by 2030 for all their last mile operations around the world should tell you something. This is a company that literally bought a company that made electric delivery vehicles to ensure they had a steady supply in Europe.
Yes yes. The modern world where everybody is their own doctor, own home inspector, own lawyer, own virologist, etc.
The average car is on the road for 10.5 years in Canada and 12.6 years in the US.
Why’s Canadian average vehicle age so low? - Auto Service World
And there are real dangers being posed to the Canadian auto care sector specifically with this trend
www.autoserviceworld.com
So even if we hit 100% electric sales tomorrow, it would take 10-15 years to convert the fleet on the road. And since adoption will be faster in some vehicle categories than others (say faster in sedans than pickups), it will naturally mean that conversion will take 20-30 years. Ergo, this panic over the grid supposedly collapsing because everybody will switch to an EV overnight is ignorant chicken little nonsense.
LOL, yet vehicle prices across the board have increased.
LOL, matching volumes seems silly.
out of the price range for most, coupled with the actual cost of usage will limit those further. With out extremely large subsidies the electric vehicle market is a no go for many consumers. We are seeing the trend in Europe of plummeting electric vehicle sales due to the loss of subsidies.
If you say so. Any trend I have witnessed with my pocket book over the past 40 years has been increases to products, not decreases.
It tells me they are heavily subsidized at this point. I wonder once the real cost beyond the subsidies disappear what their cost reward shall be.
I have read a few of reports from the big courier companies on operating costs that make you wonder why the switch. Until you read the parts on subsidies and environmental speech. It does not make sense over all.
Things like switching from using vans to smaller three wheel vehicles and motorcycles does in congested cities. Those plans have been on the books for decades before the electric car frenzy. What made them viable is governments allowing many import vehicles into their countries as part of the green wave. The down side is the disposal of such vehicles at their end of useful life cycle.
WTF are you even talking about? It has been proven time and time again. If your pay check relies on saying yes it will work, then it will work 99 out of 100 with a probable error of +10% you will say it will work.
If you realize the reasons it wont work and bring those concerns forward, then the boss says here is another $100,000,000 to make it work. You will come back with it definitely works. Even though it still has issues and needs other supports. But hey you got your money. time and research out of the project you need for the time being. (you usually go work for the other guy making the things to make the original project work).
That is a hard metric to look at. The big cities in Canada have stated they will be ICE free by 2025, then 2030, then 2035. As a person who lives in one of those cities I would be avoiding buying anything ICE while the local government gets their poop in a group.The average car is on the road for 10.5 years in Canada and 12.6 years in the US.
Why’s Canadian average vehicle age so low? - Auto Service World
And there are real dangers being posed to the Canadian auto care sector specifically with this trendwww.autoserviceworld.com
So even if we hit 100% electric sales tomorrow, it would take 10-15 years to convert the fleet on the road.
I disagree with it taking 10-15 years to convert over. 5 years max if they really could make it work. But they can't for a number of reasons.
1. people don't want it
2. people cant afford the cars to replace what they currently own to downgrade performance.
3. people don't care
4. people are not going to spend the money to upgrade their house.
5. people are not going to pay significantly more tax's to upgrade the electrical system required for every home to be able to charge their cars. When they are already facing brownouts through out critical times of the year.
6. Government has no clue how to actually make it work.
7. Dreams to convert over to a completely environmentally friendly source of transportation such as fully electric vehicles are just dreams.
When the grid and infrastructure is already taxed and limits placed on heat pumps and vehicle chargers. Is not chicken little ignorance. It is called reality.
One part of the equation the "experts" placed little to any value in. They thought if we build it, they will come. It didn't happen, then the experts tried to force us. Still has not happened. Its almost as if the experts had an agenda with no plan. Go figure a bunch of engineers, scientists and experts sitting around a table coming up with what's best for me and my environment. Forgetting the basis of what they need to make it happen. Power generation and transmission.
Who would have thought in order to charge an electric car you would need to install wires and stuff.
Pretty funny when during high power demands the utility providers and government are asking people to stop charging their cars and turn off their A/C and or heating.
Brad Sallows
Army.ca Legend
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The effects of subsidies (of anything) are straightforward. When demand-side subsidies (ie. for buyers) are removed, demand drops. Suppliers have options, including reduced prices, reduced production, shaved costs, acceptance of pinched profit margin, going out of business.
When supply-side subsidies (ie. for sellers) are removed, they lose a source of revenue which may or may not be computed based on output (production). Same options apply.
Going out of business is uncommon, but it happens occasionally when enterprises have been started up pretty much only for the purpose of milking subsidies (ie. the subsidy is the entirety of what makes the enterprise profitable).
Subsidies often have the effect of pulling future consumption into the present. Having pocketed tomorrow's sales today, suppliers end up having to adjust to sales slumps when subsidies end or are reduced.
When supply-side subsidies (ie. for sellers) are removed, they lose a source of revenue which may or may not be computed based on output (production). Same options apply.
Going out of business is uncommon, but it happens occasionally when enterprises have been started up pretty much only for the purpose of milking subsidies (ie. the subsidy is the entirety of what makes the enterprise profitable).
Subsidies often have the effect of pulling future consumption into the present. Having pocketed tomorrow's sales today, suppliers end up having to adjust to sales slumps when subsidies end or are reduced.
Inflation does that.
Not really. Price is a function of volume produced. At its core, battery manufacturing is advanced materials manufacturing, no different than industrial films or advanced plastics. And this means that the more you manufacture, the better you get at making batteries and the lower the price. This learning doesn't go away if subsidies go away. What I describe becomes really obvious if you plot battery prices and cumulative production on a log-log plot (last graph):
Hence the interest in matching volumes.
Can you link to any official policy that states they will ban ICEVs in 2025. I have never seen this. No FUD. Link to actual official policy.
Inflation does that.
Not really. Price is a function of volume produced. At its core, battery manufacturing is advanced materials manufacturing, no different than industrial films or advanced plastics. And this means that the more you manufacture, the better you get at making batteries and the lower the price. This learning doesn't go away if subsidies go away. What I describe becomes really obvious if you plot battery prices and cumulative production on a log-log plot (last graph):
Hence the interest in matching volumes.
Can you link to any official policy that states they will ban ICEVs in 2025. I have never seen this. No FUD. Link to actual official policy.
Zero-Emission Vehicles Act
The ZEV Act requires automakers to meet an escalating annual percentage of new light-duty ZEV sales and leases.
www2.gov.bc.ca
Your supporting the use of electric vehicles here and abroad. You don't know about things happening here in Canada.Inflation does that.
Not really. Price is a function of volume produced. At its core, battery manufacturing is advanced materials manufacturing, no different than industrial films or advanced plastics. And this means that the more you manufacture, the better you get at making batteries and the lower the price. This learning doesn't go away if subsidies go away. What I describe becomes really obvious if you plot battery prices and cumulative production on a log-log plot (last graph):
Hence the interest in matching volumes.
Can you link to any official policy that states they will ban ICEVs in 2025. I have never seen this. No FUD. Link to actual official policy.
I thought you said you were well versed in these matters.
I guess not as much as you think you are which is surprising considering how much you support your opinions.
If you type into the Google search bar you can find more information about this and the other ICE bans being implemented.
None of this said ban ICEVs by 2025. It just had sales targets for 2026. But even those were only 26%. Far from the ban you assert.
A lot of words to not end up backing up the assertion you made.
Nobody has ever proposed banning ICEVs in 2025. The only thing close to what you suggest was Montreal suggest an ICEV ban in the downtown core in 2030. How feasible that is, is debatable. Even London, UK doesn't ban ICEV, just slaps on fees. But that's not "major cities" like you suggested. It's a portion of exactly one city. All other proposals are not bans on ICEV. They are sales bans. Hopefully, you get the difference between the two.
Personally, I don't think sales mandates will be needed. Battery prices will get the industry there. See the graph that you dodged commenting on.
That's reality of their initial promise.
But you would have done the research into their process.
The history of their program was for a outright ban of ICE vehicles.
Then reality set in. Manufactures can't make that many vehicles, what about the big trucks? Then there is that little devil in the details of electricity generation.
The Vancouver and BC gov have waffled on the plan as has the others in the other cities and provinces.
Because the reality is they can't do it reasonably.
Just reading one article won't get you to understand the ban in place. But the fact that you only looked at the one tells me your not as educated nor experienced in the matter as you have stated.
Good luck in your endeavor of trying to change minds and outlooks.
Cheers
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