Yeah, but that’s just the usual FAFO for IRGC playing silly bugger in northern Iraq
Houthi Red Sea Blockade
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Colin Parkinson
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India is now pissed and involved
gcaptain.com
Indian Navy Deploys Destroyers After Drone Strike
In response to a drone attack on an Israel-affiliated merchant vessel off the Indian coast, the Indian Navy has deployed guided missile destroyers in the Arabian Sea for heightened security and deterrence.
gcaptain.com
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I would be shocked if any country wouldn’t deploy naval forces (if they had them) if other countries were targeting ships close to their EEZ.India is now pissed and involved
Indian Navy Deploys Destroyers After Drone Strike
In response to a drone attack on an Israel-affiliated merchant vessel off the Indian coast, the Indian Navy has deployed guided missile destroyers in the Arabian Sea for heightened security and deterrence.
Another escalation in the past 24 hours. A Houthi missile hit a Maersk merchant vessel, and a group of boats attempted to attack and board it. An onboard security team opened fire, and USN helicopters from Eisenhower and Gravely responded. The Houthis opened fire on the USN helicopters, and helicopters from Eisenhower opened fire, destroying three of the boats and killing the crew. No damage or injuries to USN personnel. So- some air to surface action for the maritime helicopter air wing; not sure that’s happened in a while.
From the fact that helos responded from Ike and one of her escorts, we can infer the USN isn’t frigging about and has put a Carrier Strike Group all the way into the bad side of town.
The vessel that was attacked, Maersk Hongzhou, is Singapore flagged- but opening direct fire on USN helicopters is an escalation.
From the fact that helos responded from Ike and one of her escorts, we can infer the USN isn’t frigging about and has put a Carrier Strike Group all the way into the bad side of town.
The vessel that was attacked, Maersk Hongzhou, is Singapore flagged- but opening direct fire on USN helicopters is an escalation.
And The Times is now reporting that the UK and US are preparing for missile/air strikes against Houthi rebels. Things might be about to get very hot.
www.thetimes.co.uk
UK preparing for attacks on Houthi rebels with US
The militant group has caused chaos in the Red Sea by attacking and hijacking ships
www.thetimes.co.uk
I respect the desperate desire on the US’ part to avoid a larger/proxy war if reasonably feasible- things WILL be worse before they’re better, and it will continue to be dangerous and disruptive for shipping - but there’s only so far the Houthis could be allowed to push it before they get smacked down. The next 48 hours will tell us if they recognize they need to unfrig themselves or not. Even with America’s hideous technological advantage, that’s not super comfortable space for a blue water navy and CSG. There’s a lot of room for tragedy should the other guy get lucky once.
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My wife has a pro-Palestinian friend who I follow on Instagram. As frustrating at it is, I continue to follow her so that I can see what the other side is thinking/saying. It's amazing how they twist things to fit the narrative. The post she shared read:
"It is being reported that US helicopters bombed three boats belonging to Yemeni Armed Forces, killing their crew, in the Red Sea"
Very different from:
"US Navy helicopters sink three hostile Houthi attack boats in defence of civilian merchant ship in international waters."
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Mindful that the Houthis are merely pawns in Iran’s ongoing asymmetric war against the U.S., agree.
Yup. I found it notable that the CENTCOM release on the attack specifically identified the Houthis as “Iran-backed”.
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There is growing interest inside the Beltway to actually hitting Iran significantly.
Long run yes things will be better for it, but if it goes down, stuff will go pear shaped for some time.
I’m not sure how I feel, mainly as I don’t have the confidence we would see it through.
Quirky
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These pro-Palestinian, “free gaza” people can’t even tell you which part they want free and what that will look like. From what I’ve seen, this typically means the real genocide of the Jewish people in Israel and/or destruction of the country (from the river to the sea).
Gaza has been free since 2005 and they’ve pissed away their chance at real statehood.
OldSolduer
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Lobbing a few cruise missiles at Tehran maybe? That would not break my heart.
But I am biased so don't heed me too much.
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Maybe just me, but “attacking potentially-nuclear-armed regime whose trademark line is ‘Death to America’” isn’t the way I want to start my 2024.
Colin Parkinson
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My guess is Iran will be keen to preserve the Houthi combat power and will rein them in if things get to hot. the Houthi and Hezbollah are to important for the long term. Hamas was quite expendable.
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I think it all depends on what Iran thinks is in their best interests. They are quite willing to expend anything if they see it as a destabilizing force to their enemies.
Colin Parkinson
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But Iran has to think long term, if the Houthi get weakened to much, KSA might decide to push more on the ground front. This might also bring Egypt and KSA closer to together. India might get tired of their crap and take out the Iranian spy ship. Lot's of ways for this to go south for the Iranians.
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But keep in mind Iran isn’t the head puppeteer in this situation.
The current regime isn’t as thoughtful as its roots in some respects. They have accepted Russian influence, and have their own internal issues, so they are eager to stoke fires to try to both appease the Russians, as well as distract from their own internal divides.
They need an external crisis to point to, to both divert the population from the excesses of the Regimes Religious Police, and to partially divert parts of their government from more extreme methods internally. Their goal at this point is avoiding a civil war, and if they have to throw long term allies under the bus as expendable crewmen to do so, they will with relish.
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