Houthi Red Sea Blockade

[Colin Parkinson]

I think many are seriously underestimating the threat this organization poses along with their capabilities:

I don't underestimate them in as Light infantry and mountain fighters. In that regard they are very good. But they don't have the technology depth to sustain a technological fight against the US, particularly when the US is not interested in landing ashore, or at the very least moving inland from the shore. If the US limit's their initial attacks to some minor launching sites. Then it's possible they revert to propaganda to maintain their morale and preserve their warfighting capability. They also have to consider a renewed offensive by KSA , bolstered by Egyptian Troops, aircraft and ships. The Egyptians have 9 frigates, 2 corvettes and two amphibious landing ships, along with other landing craft. About half of their operational fleet will be in the Red Sea, so that is a potentiel of 4-5 vessels operating near their home ports to assist in escort and strike missions. Not to mention a number of smaller missile and patrol boats. If the Houthi effects Suez shipping enough, Egypt will join into that fight and it's not the first time they fought in Yemen.

 

[TacticalTea]

That’s a pretty big brush there.

It's not.




I have little reason to believe it is any different for young Canadians.

 

[GR66]

Balls.........

I don't think it's a lack of balls that is stopping the US from "pounding" the Houthis, I think it's an understanding of the potential for regional escalation of the conflict.

Say the US goes in hard striking Houthi weapons, storage, transport and leadership positions - which could include taking out Iranian trainers/advisors and Iranian vessels transporting this equipment - and degrades the Houthis military capability such that it might actually tip the balance against them in the Yemeni Civil War (and even entice the Saudi-led alliance to re-enter the conflict). Does that possibly trigger Hezbollah to launch full scale rocket and missile attacks against Israel? Hezbollah has an arsenal of rockets an order of magnitude greater than Hamas was launching during the Oct 7th attacks and they truly have the potential of overwhelming the Iron Dome system. Does that really help Israel that is already seriously engaged in Gaza? Does the US then have to open a 2nd front in Lebanon to stop those attacks?

Does the US providing munitions and equipment to both Ukraine and Israel plus it's own expenditures in Yemen and Lebanon while also now having to be prepared in case Iran ups it's attacks against US/allied forces in Iraq and Syria weaken the deterrence potential vs China?

 

[Rifleman62]

Nobody but Canada wants the Palestinians. Look at the history of the Middle East to see what countries have/are refusing to take them and the conflicts they have caused.

More demonstrations and violence in our homeland with governments ignoring the law.

Gov't to offer 3-year visas to Canadians' extended family in Gaza, starting in 2024

Gov't to offer 3-year visas to Canadians' extended family in Gaza, starting in 2024​

 

[dimsum]

It's not.

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Is it just me or are the options “Oppressors” and “False Ideology” weird ones to ask? Shouldn’t it be “Oppressors” and “Not Oppressors”, or something similar?

I would be hesitant to agree with “False Ideology” as an option because that, at first glance, seems like I believe in a false ideology, rather than “Jews as oppressors are a false ideology”.

But I digress.

 

[Kirkhill]

Is it just me or are the options “Oppressors” and “False Ideology” weird ones to ask? Shouldn’t it be “Oppressors” and “Not Oppressors”, or something similar?

I would be hesitant to agree with “False Ideology” as an option because that, at first glance, seems like I believe in a false ideology, rather than “Jews as oppressors are a false ideology”.

But I digress.

When I saw that as a member of the 65+ camp my counter to the Oppressors was Victims. That is the story that has been part of my life.

 

[TacticalTea]

When I saw that as a member of the 65+ camp my counter to the Oppressors was Victims. That is the story that has been part of my life.

More accurate, but it is also true that Jews are over-represented in the higher echelons of the societies in which they aren't openly discriminated against.

High trait conscientiousness, IQ, and ingroup preference, probably all driven from heightened cultural sense of survival and integration.

So I wouldn't call them victims across the board, but "oppressors" is just plain kooky.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I don't think it's a lack of balls that is stopping the US from "pounding" the Houthis, I think it's an understanding of the potential for regional escalation of the conflict.

Say the US goes in hard striking Houthi weapons, storage, transport and leadership positions - which could include taking out Iranian trainers/advisors and Iranian vessels transporting this equipment - and degrades the Houthis military capability such that it might actually tip the balance against them in the Yemeni Civil War (and even entice the Saudi-led alliance to re-enter the conflict). Does that possibly trigger Hezbollah to launch full scale rocket and missile attacks against Israel? Hezbollah has an arsenal of rockets an order of magnitude greater than Hamas was launching during the Oct 7th attacks and they truly have the potential of overwhelming the Iron Dome system. Does that really help Israel that is already seriously engaged in Gaza? Does the US then have to open a 2nd front in Lebanon to stop those attacks?

Does the US providing munitions and equipment to both Ukraine and Israel plus it's own expenditures in Yemen and Lebanon while also now having to be prepared in case Iran ups it's attacks against US/allied forces in Iraq and Syria weaken the deterrence potential vs China?

I think the US could take a measured minimal response at first. Making it clear they can operate over Yemen at will and capable of bombing anywhere. At which point the Houthi have a opportunity to backtrack.

 

[KevinB]

I don't think it's a lack of balls that is stopping the US from "pounding" the Houthis, I think it's an understanding of the potential for regional escalation of the conflict.

Say the US goes in hard striking Houthi weapons, storage, transport and leadership positions - which could include taking out Iranian trainers/advisors and Iranian vessels transporting this equipment - and degrades the Houthis military capability such that it might actually tip the balance against them in the Yemeni Civil War (and even entice the Saudi-led alliance to re-enter the conflict). Does that possibly trigger Hezbollah to launch full scale rocket and missile attacks against Israel? Hezbollah has an arsenal of rockets an order of magnitude greater than Hamas was launching during the Oct 7th attacks and they truly have the potential of overwhelming the Iron Dome system. Does that really help Israel that is already seriously engaged in Gaza? Does the US then have to open a 2nd front in Lebanon to stop those attacks?

Temporarily overwhelm Iron Dome, but would also ensure that they became massive BBQ Briquettes. Israeli airpower could flatten a large segment of Lebanon if they wished.

The issue is that Iran is the crux of the issue in the area (encouraged by Moscow directly, and indirectly from China) -they supply both the Houthis and Hezbollah (and Hamas) and can just provide more missiles unless one takes direct action again Iraq - getting into a slug feast with Iran guarantees that munitions stocks that can be used in Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan are not available for those.

Does the US providing munitions and equipment to both Ukraine and Israel plus it's own expenditures in Yemen and Lebanon while also now having to be prepared in case Iran ups it's attacks against US/allied forces in Iraq and Syria weaken the deterrence potential vs China?

It is not an easy case regardless -- one argument could be made that crushing Iran quickly would allow for materials to be given to Ukraine and Taiwan after, however that assumes that it is easy to do. The flip side to playing a more patient game, also emboldens the enemy to push further, and just delays the inevitable...

I think the US could take a measured minimal response at first. Making it clear they can operate over Yemen at will and capable of bombing anywhere. At which point the Houthi have a opportunity to backtrack.

The problem is what then -- we have already done that, they really don't give a shit. They can cause a great deal of pain to other partner's in the area, who aren't as willing to absorb the hits.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The problem is what then -- we have already done that, they really don't give a shit. They can cause a great deal of pain to other partner's in the area, who aren't as willing to absorb the hits.

If the economic impacts continue, you will see Egypt get involved, first helping to escort ships and then likley attacking Yemen if their ships are attacked. The Houthi have to worry about the long term as well, because if Egypt gets involved, that might spur KSA to get back into the fray. KSA needs Egypt more than than peace with Iran. Egypt can make the issue to it's people that the Houthi are attacking their interests and has nothing to do with Israel.

 

[Kirkhill]

Was this posted already? If so I missed it.

A chemical tanker in the Indian Ocean was hit by a drone launched from Iran on Saturday, the US military says.

Tanker hit off India coast by drone from Iran, says US

Saturday's attack caused a fire on board the chemical tanker in the Indian Ocean, the US military says.

www.bbc.com

Is Iran starting to feel its oats? Because, while the West may feel reluctant to open a front against Russia I doubt if they would feel the same reluctance on taking on Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis and the various IRGC cells creating disruptions in Western countries.

And that would have a knock on effect on Russia.

....

Reason US State Department doesn't want Russia taken out of the loop? They don't want China in Moscow?

 

[KevinB]

Was this posted already? If so I missed it.

Tanker hit off India coast by drone from Iran, says US

Saturday's attack caused a fire on board the chemical tanker in the Indian Ocean, the US military says.

www.bbc.com

Is Iran starting to feel its oats? Because, while the West may feel reluctant to open a front against Russia I doubt if they would feel the same reluctance on taking on Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis and the various IRGC cells creating disruptions in Western countries.

Risk/reward. I don’t disagree with you, but not sure the western governments are there yet.

And that would have a knock on effect on Russia.

Enough to justify the munitions etc expended in the areas? That is a question I don’t have the answer to.

....

Reason US State Department doesn't want Russia taken out of the loop? They don't want China in Moscow?

Well and the potential for nuclear strikes on the west…

 

[Kirkhill]

Risk/reward. I don’t disagree with you, but not sure the western governments are there yet.

Agreed.

Enough to justify the munitions etc expended in the areas? That is a question I don’t have the answer to.

I think / hope that some big thinks are happening now.

Well and the potential for nuclear strikes on the west…

Honestly I think the prospect of China Across The Urals in 20 years is probably a greater fear than that of some Tac Nukes that may or may not work.

If the Reformation can be reset to 1519 then The Golden Horde can return to Muscovy and The Gates of Vienna.

 

[KevinB]

It isn’t the Tac Nuke usage that concerns folks, that’s an issue, but it’s also a net loss for Russia given the areas that would be hit.

It’s the launch of strat nuke forces, and the fact that few western countries have a robust ABM network.

China may want parts of Russia for land and resources, but they don’t necessarily want the population, so they are quite happy with the Russian blood letting going on, and are very happy to keep a status quo, getting cut rate deals for resources while Russia gets weaker.

 

[Good2Golf]

The issue is that Iran is the crux of the issue in the area (encouraged by Moscow directly, and indirectly from China) -they supply both the Houthis and Hezbollah (and Hamas) and can just provide more missiles unless one takes direct action again Iraq - getting into a slug feast with Iran guarantees that munitions stocks that can be used in Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan are not available for those.

…and the Arabs haven’t felt enough collateral effect from the Persians shenanigans yet…

I can’t help but think that (a Western) Sun Tzu would manage to artfully help Arabs feel more Persian ‘love’ (instability), to increase their interest in ongoing affaires…not sure that’s actually happening.

 

[KevinB]

Well apparently we decided that it was worth it to hit a few sites.
I haven’t been on Twitter, but my email feed has several mentions of strikes.

 

[brihard]

Well apparently we decided that it was worth it to hit a few sites.
I haven’t been on Twitter, but my email feed has several mentions of strikes.

I haven’t seen anything OS yet and it would probably be pretty quick that something’s happening. Laboon, and some Hornets from Ik splashed some UAS and missiles, and there’s more bullshit in Iraq, but if there are attacks happening on Houthi territory, it’s not out yet.

 

[KevinB]

I haven’t seen anything OS yet and it would probably be pretty quick that something’s happening. Laboon, and some Hornets from Ik splashed some UAS and missiles, and there’s more bullshit in Iraq, but if there are attacks happening on Houthi territory, it’s not out yet.

I misread a few strike locations. It appears just the Iraq sites and I see the Israeli’s killed an IRGC General in a strike as well.

 

[brihard]

I misread a few strike locations. It appears just the Iraq sites and I see the Israeli’s killed an IRGC General in a strike as well.

Yeah, that jives. IRGC logistics general in Syria got smoked it sounds like. Iran’s making normal Iran noises in response.

 

[Haggis]

I haven’t seen anything OS yet and it would probably be pretty quick that something’s happening. Laboon, and some Hornets from Ik splashed some UAS and missiles, and there’s more bullshit in Iraq, but if there are attacks happening on Houthi territory, it’s not out yet.

Here's some OS reporting on POTUS's orders to strike at Iranian backed militias.