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Houthi Red Sea Blockade

Thanks, obviously the sinking rumour was going around yesterday but I couldn’t find a reputable source from casual searching and so didn’t repeat it.

As I’ve mentioned before, the Houthis don’t need to physically close the strait; just make passage uninsurable at rates where the trip can still be worth it.

Eventually they’re gonna land a solid hit on a warship and kill some western sailors at this rate. Military presence has failed to suppress or deter them, or to render the straight safely passable.

There's a cure for that ;)

France Dday Launch GIF by US National Archives
 
Thanks, obviously the sinking rumour was going around yesterday but I couldn’t find a reputable source from casual searching and so didn’t repeat it.

As I’ve mentioned before, the Houthis don’t need to physically close the strait; just make passage uninsurable at rates where the trip can still be worth it.

Eventually they’re gonna land a solid hit on a warship and kill some western sailors at this rate. Military presence has failed to suppress or deter them, or to render the straight safely passable.
Maybe time to blockade them. Would not take much to cut off their food supplies, even if for a month or two.
 
Or give the Saudis a hand...

The US did and they still mucked it up. To be fair the Houthi are excellent light infantry and have great defensible terrain in the mountains. However the Saudis should have been easily able to sweep them out of the coastal and urban areas. But the Saudi's don't want a competent army. they rather hire one for a short bit. One option is to take over the port of Hodeida which is a major source of funds for the Houthi.
 
Say again?
Tribe A have a long standing grudge with Tribe B. Tribe A is friendly to the major power/occupying force. Tribe A hears Tribe B is having a gathering of their most important people for a wedding or such. Tribe A tells the people with the firepower that really bad guys will be at X location of X date. This may or may not be true or even partly true. The people with the firepower believes Tribe A because previous intelligence has been pretty good and it seems like this is a chance to hurt the bad guys. Despite the best efforts by the people with the firepower to minimize causalities, stuff happens. Tribe A is happy because Tribe B power is now weakened at no cost to themselves.
 
Tribe A have a long standing grudge with Tribe B. Tribe A is friendly to the major power/occupying force. Tribe A hears Tribe B is having a gathering of their most important people for a wedding or such. Tribe A tells the people with the firepower that really bad guys will be at X location of X date. This may or may not be true or even partly true. The people with the firepower believes Tribe A because previous intelligence has been pretty good and it seems like this is a chance to hurt the bad guys. Despite the best efforts by the people with the firepower to minimize causalities, stuff happens. Tribe A is happy because Tribe B power is now weakened at no cost to themselves.
Much like criminals ratting each other out on the tip lines.
 
Related to the above



If you were an Iranian that has been leaning on Moscow for support for years, trusting that it will back your play against all-comers but especially the Great Satan, how impressed would you be to discover that:

Moscow can't take Kyiv in three days.
Moscow is begging for ammunition from North Korea.
Moscow is relying on your home made toy aeroplanes to continue its wars.

Isn't Moscow supposed to be the adult in the room?

In the meantime there is little evidence of the real west, the western economy being in danger of total collapse any time soon. On the other hand the economy of Iran is under stress. And its population is very restive - women, youngsters and border tribes (baluchis, arabs, kurds among others). And the economies of Russia and China are looking pretty shaky as well.

Chaos might serve the interests of Twelver fundamentalists pursuing their own Islamist Rapture but it may not serve the needs of the people actually trying to run Iran.

One small point the Twelver's are the same people running the country. And here in lies the problem.
 
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