• Thanks for stopping by. Logging in to a registered account will remove all generic ads. Please reach out with any questions or concerns.

Global Warming/Climate Change Super Thread

Rather interesting observation on solar activity. Solar observation has been undertaken on a scientific basis since the the time of Galileo, and the last time the Sun went "quiet" for long periods of time it coincided with perhaps the most devastating climactic change in modern history: "The Little Ice Age"

Look up Maunder Minimum

http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=11&month=09&year=2013

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery

ALMOST-BLANK SUN: 2013 is supposed to be a year of solar maximum. Indeed, the sun's magnetic field is poised to flip, a long-held sign that Solar Max has arrived. But if this is Solar Max, it looks a lot like Solar Min. The face of the sun is almost completely blank:

A careful inspection of the solar disk reveals only two sunspots, very small and quiet. NOAA forecasters estimate no more than a 1% chance of M- or X-class flares during the next 24 hours.

In fact, this is Solar Max, the weakest one in more than 50 years. Long spells of quiet and spotlessness are punctuated by occasional flares and CMEs. At least one researcher believes the ongoing maximum is actually double-peaked, and we are now experiencing the valley between peaks. If so, a surge in solar activity could be in the offing in late-2013 and 2014. Stay tuned. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.
 
The IPCC AR5 is coming out soon. Some good background info from Climate Audit/Steve McIntyre on the process and some key players.  Steve took the summer off so it is good to have him back in the debate.


And another post from Donna LaFramboise highlighting the 50:1 documentary.


http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/09/11/the-important-50-to-1-project/

Topher makes so much sense.

 
Debate in Parliament, unfortunately not ours.

Australia has a new government and is cutting off the money going to global warming stuff.  A few days later has a debate and David Cameron will face a challenge to switch their Party plank to remove their support for the Climate Change Act (2008)

Sanity is returning.  The politicos are waking up to fact that they have been played.  The rollback has begun. 

Wonder if Lizzie May, in her quiet moments, wonders if she has hitched her political career to a dud theory?



Good exchange in the UK Parliament.   


"Philip Davies (Shipley) (Con): I am delighted to be one of the four remaining MPs who voted against the Climate Change Act in the previous Parliament, all of whom are in the room today. Although my hon. Friend rightly wants to chastise the Government, does he acknowledge that the Act, which has done so much to add to people’s energy bills, was actually steered through Parliament by the right hon. Member for Doncaster North (Edward Miliband), who is now Leader of the Opposition? Does my hon. Friend also agree that the Labour party has played a huge part in increasing energy bills, and that it is no good for Labour Members to complain about fuel poverty when they have created so much of it?

David T. C. Davies: Indeed, I do agree. I am sorry that I was not a member of the famous five who voted against the Act in 2008, but I hope I will now do something to put that right. I am pleased to see my hon. Friend the Member for Chichester (Mr Tyrie) here, because he helped to steer the opposition to the Act at the time.

I must confess that I was one of those who accepted the arguments that were made—I supported the Act when it was passed. Of course, part 1 clearly states that the Act is open to amendment if the science changes or if significant developments in science become clear. I contend that, given what we now know about climate science, we have a strong argument for reconsidering the Act with a view to either revoking it completely or drastically amending it.

Mr Andrew Tyrie (Chichester) (Con): Does my hon. Friend agree that the Act is without doubt the most foolish piece of statute that any of us here is likely to see in Parliament? Does he further agree that the very principle of unilaterally re-embarking on a crash programme of carbon reduction can only have the effect of exporting our energy-intensive industries to places where they may emit more carbon, and that carbon reduction will have only a nugatory effect on the problem because, as he correctly states, the Chinese are increasing carbon emissions faster than we are succeeding in reducing them?

David T. C. Davies: I completely agree with my hon. Friend. He is jumping a little ahead of what I was going to say and has saved me the trouble of saying it, but he is absolutely right. It is ludicrous for us to embark on drastic reductions of carbon dioxide at huge cost to our manufacturing and other industries when nobody else will follow.

A lot has been said about how the science is settled and how anyone who denies the science is some sort of climate change denier, which is nonsense. The very last thing I want to do is to deny that the climate changes. In fact, the climate has been changing probably ever since the Earth was created 4.5 billion years ago. The real deniers are those who deny that change took place before about 300 years ago.

Philip Davies: I am very grateful to my hon. Friend for giving way. I promise not to interrupt him again.

Does my hon. Friend acknowledge that although the issue used to be called “global warming”, when the globe stopped warming the fanatics changed the name to “climate change” because nobody can ever deny that the climate changes? As he has just acknowledged, the climate always changes, and by changing the name they admitted that their previous hypothesis was wrong.

David T. C. Davies: My hon. Friend is absolutely correct.

Luciana Berger (Liverpool, Wavertree) (Lab/Co-op): I thank the hon. Gentleman for very kindly giving way so early in his speech. I know that I will have some minutes to speak at the end of the debate, but I want to ask him this question now. Why does he believe that 97% of more than 4,000 peer-reviewed studies by climate scientists over the past two years agree, first, that climate change is happening, and secondly, that it is man-made?

David T. C. Davies: First, as I have just said, climate change is happening, just as it has always happened. Secondly, we must consider the nature of what has been suggested is going on. Carbon dioxide is a warming gas—that is a scientific fact. There has been an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since we started industrialising—that is also a fact. Where I beg to differ is that it is not proven that the carbon dioxide that has gone into the atmosphere is responsible for the relatively small amount of warming that has taken place since industrialisation. The total amount of warming that we are talking about is some 0.8° C; it is a very small amount in the scheme of things.

When we started to industrialise, we were coming out of a very cool period known as the little ice age; it was so cold that the Thames used to freeze over and they used to have ice fairs on it. That is part of a pattern of cooling and warming that has been going on for several thousand years. We had a warm period during Roman times, and things became cooler again during the dark ages before becoming warmer during the mediaeval warm period. The temperature then became cooler before it started warming up again.

Some of the 0.8° rise has to be down to the fact that we were going to warm up whatever happened, because we were coming out of a cool period. Is the hon. Member for Liverpool, Wavertree (Luciana Berger) able to tell me how much of that 0.8° rise is a result of the natural warming that should have taken place? Perhaps she could also tell me why we cannot make a straightforward correlation between CO2 emissions and temperature. If she is right, as the amount of CO2 going into the atmosphere increases, temperatures ought to increase, but that is not what happened at all. We have seen increases and decreases. Temperatures went up in the first half of the last century, but after the second world war, as we industrialised and started to pour much larger amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere, temperatures went down again until, in the 1970s, everyone was predicting a forthcoming ice age. Temperatures then started to increase again until about 1997. Since then there has been absolutely no increase in temperature whatsoever, and that is with all the industrialisation" going on in China and India.

More at the link

http://www.thegwpf.org/mps-attack-impact-climate-change-act-families-industry/

 
ArmyVern said:
Wait a minute!! YOU are the one who sourced her work; he just pointed out to you that she has since stated she erred with her opinion.

This -  :facepalm: - is the only facepalm icon on the site, but your gaff above is definitively worth a double facepalm and -300.

Actually I was responding to an earlier post that featured the above author. When I say "cherrypicking", I mean that the articles being posted have also cherrypicked or skewed the data they are citing to further a specific point of view. No one has posted anything from sources even approaching the credibility of the sources I have posted. And again, in one of my earlier posts, I had a link that scientifically discounts every argument that has been made on this thread before or since. And yet the solar activity theory has just reared its head again. This isn't a discussion if people aren't reading the actual sources.

Thanks for coming out though, and thanks for the "mil point" "penalty"  ::). And the face palm.

Here is that link again for your reading pleasure:

http://grist.org/series/skeptics/
 
Kilo_302 said:
Actually I was responding to an earlier post that featured the above author. When I say "cherrypicking", I mean that the articles being posted have also cherrypicked or skewed the data they are citing to further a specific point of view. No one has posted anything from sources even approaching the credibility of the sources I have posted. And again, in one of my earlier posts, I had a link that scientifically discounts every argument that has been made on this thread before or since. And yet the solar activity theory has just reared its head again. This isn't a discussion if people aren't reading the actual sources.

Seriously?  And you haven't been "Cherrypicking"?

As for discussion, people are just as entitled to "cherrypick" their points as you are.  If they find fault with your sources, why is it that you accuse them of using falsified or imperfect research, yet will not admit that yours may be just as faulty.  Our discussions with you are equal to talking to a brick wall. 
 
No, you are the brick wall. You do not address specific arguments, and the sources you use are largely from opinion based websites. None of them stand up to academic muster which I would argue should the standard in any debate. If people can use discredited sources as evidence, or somehow opinion pieces and blog posts count the same as NASA, this debate is no longer a debate.

Again, I am addressing arguments that you are actually making, and rebutting them with evidence. If you can't acknowledge the sources I am citing YOU are the brick wall. Because in the face of scientific evidence you clinging to belief. Which is the root of this debate, and now that we are here there is no point in continuing.
 
NASA said what?

www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2011/07/27/new-nasa-data-blow-gaping-hold-in-global-warming-alarmism/


 
www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2011/07/27/new-nasa-data-blow-gaping-hold-in-global-warming-alarmism/

The new findings are extremely important and should dramatically alter the global warming debate.
I doubt it.

My 'research' suggests that the mindless  :argument:  will continue unabated.    :boring:
 
Pfft, James Taylor works for the Heartland Institute.

The new findings are extremely important and should dramatically alter the global warming debate.
'

According to who, the author?

Journeyman I agree the debate will continue on this site, and but in the real world, amongst trained scientists, there is no debate. That has been the mission of the petroleum industry. To muddy the waters just enough so that the general public perceives that there is doubt. And from some of the opinions on this site, mission accomplished.
 
No warming for 15 years...

www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2398753/Why-HAS-global-warming-slowed-Scientists-admit-dont-know-why.html

 
Again, The Daily Mail has been caught several times fudging data and is well known for its ideological opposition to the idea of climate change. Notice how the institutions whose data the article is citing have NOT changed their minds. I very much doubt that the Daily Mail employs specialists who are more qualifed at interpreting data and drawing conclusions than the Met or NASA.
 
You really are on the ball Kilo.

As it has been stated over and over, no one is looking to change anyone's mind, but there is a wealth of data out there, and at the end of the day we don't know as much as we think we do about our own planet.

It is very hard to throw my hat behind the "consensus" when I have been hearing nothing but doom and gloom for almost 20 years.  Yet there always seems to be an excuse why it isn't happening the way it is supposed to (according to computer modelling)

Glaciers are melting, and will continue to do so, because they have been melting since the last ice age, which is a fact.  I am sitting in an area that was once covered in thick ice, but now I am in shorts, that too is a fact.
Climate change is always going on, the earth is always changing.  What's next, installing some sort of device to prevent the tectonic plates from shifting? 
 
I have only just skimmed this yet,

http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/Global/usa/report/Dealing%20in%20Doubt%202013%20-%20Greenpeace%20report%20on%20Climate%20Change%20Denial%20Machine.pdf


. . . but it has a degree of desperate, knowing they are losing  odour  about it.  Same old, same old smears, distortions and consensus is science arguments.

Greenpeace is very good at PR so this might just be preemptive strike because they know they are losing the argument about the Pause and the press is starting to work against them.






 
Dolphin_Hunter said:
Glaciers are melting, and will continue to do so, because they have been melting since the last ice age, which is a fact.  I am sitting in an area that was once covered in thick ice, but now I am in shorts, that too is a fact.
Climate change is always going on, the earth is always changing.  What's next, installing some sort of device to prevent the tectonic plates from shifting?

Probably about 10,000ft deep in ice.  About a year ago I was doing some work with university Co--Op students. One was a global warming devotee and we chatted a few times about what was happening.  I told him about the glacial history and how the Canadian geomorphological landscape happened.

Wouldn't believe me.  He had been well educated to understand, to believe that our climate has been generally stable and consistent and that it is only recently that man made CO2 is the sole cause of current climate fluctuations. Fluctuations, AKA climate change is caused by CO2. 

Our public education system chose to teach him from a very selective and non inclusive knowledge base of the history of Earth's climate. They were not educating, they were delivering the message of a cause they believed in.  They wanted to him to come to a narrow, biased set of beliefs and opinions and not to be taught anything that did not support their beliefs and cause.

I could not dissuade him from his beliefs but did leave him a link for an online Intro Geomorph course he could look at.

He probably has not changed his mind but I think I torqued his cognitive dissonance level enough to put  a dent in his beliefs.

Some people just take longer to go with facts and data instead of beliefs.

Life is a series of lessons.
Lessons will be repeated until learned.


 
Haletown, you just posted a paper that proves you wrong and has citations and data to back it up!

but it has a degree of desperate, knowing they are losing  odour  about it.  Same old, same old smears, distortions and consensus is science arguments.

Greenpeace is very good at PR so this might just be preemptive strike because they know they are losing the argument about the Pause and the press is starting to work against them.

So prove that it's full of smears, distortions etc. There's facts and figures in there. You're just blowing hot air at this point.  TRY and prove anything in that report wrong.

Some people just take longer to go with facts and data instead of beliefs.

Again, are you including that giant list of respected scientific institutions that I posted a while back in this group of "some people?" They are all wrong? They are all blindly following beliefs? These are the world's best, and you think YOU know better? That's supremely arrogant. Tragically arrogant. It's madness. You might as well believe in 9/11 conspiracy theories.

Our public education system chose to teach him from a very selective and non inclusive knowledge base of the history of Earth's climate. They were not educating, they were delivering the message of a cause they believed in.  They wanted to him to come to a narrow, biased set of beliefs and opinions and not to be taught anything that did not support their beliefs and cause.

As I have demonstrated several times, it is the deniers who selectively use data. Serious climatologists understand the climate shifts without human input. Was this fellow you speak about unaware of the last ice age? I can't believe that. Of course the climate naturally shifts, but as recent data has shown, the shift is happening more rapidly and it's directly correlated to human activity.



TRY and prove anything in that report wrong.
 
I'm getting sick of seeing one dude all over this thread telling everyone else how wrong they are. Others are starting to get tired of it as well, judging by the  feedback I am seeing.

Kilo, take a time out. Serious. Not an admin action, just saying - walk away for a while.

Scott
Staff
 
Ahh remember the good old days whe the consensus was that the Earth was flat, or the Sun revolved around Earth, geologists were nuts for postulating Plate Tectonics or physicians believed ulcers were caused by stress ?

They were the good old days, when consensus proved everyone wrong.
 
Scott said:
I'm getting sick of seeing one dude all over this thread telling everyone else how wrong they are. Others are starting to get tired of it as well, judging by the  feedback I am seeing.

Kilo, take a time out. Serious. Not an admin action, just saying - walk away for a while.

Scott
Staff

Well that's the risk people run when they use flawed data from laughable sources and are well, just plain wrong. No sense in trying to draw water from a stone however. Walking away. I would add that I have received a few PMs from members who were more than glad to see someone successfully argue for the truth.

Another discussion heroically halted by another kind of "consensus" huh?

Cheers.
 
Scott said:
I'm getting sick of seeing one dude all over this thread telling everyone else how wrong they are. Others are starting to get tired of it as well, judging by the  feedback I am seeing.

Kilo, take a time out. Serious. Not an admin action, just saying - walk away for a while.

Scott
Staff
Well, if you are looking for feedback, I'm far from sick of Kilo's posts.  If it seems it's one guy, alone, it's because there's nothing that needs adding to his posts - he's pretty much spot on.

For future reference, how does one debate those who oppose AGW without saying that they their view is wrong?








 
And I concur with jpjohnson. I get the sense that if you don't agree with the pack, the pack chases you away. Frankly, I see lots of merit in Kilo's posts.
 
Back
Top