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Election 2015

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RoyalDrew said:
Quite possibly the worst result for Canada IMO.  It would also be a terrible result for the CAF.  I can imagine making an exit from the organization if this scenario plays out as I think the NDP would make the Decade of Darkness look like a freaking picnic in comparison to how they would conduct day to day business.

An NDP Government would most certainly lose on a confidence vote if they tried to pull out any major alliance...the Liberals would hate to see "their" St.Laurentian and Pearsonian engagement be disassembled, and the Conservatives would not accept seeing try engagement tools dismantled.  Mulcair is too savvy to do that.  Perhaps lots of posturing, but he would never do anything to get him kick out of Government any earlier than would naturally occur in the 12 to 18 month timeframe.

:2c:

G2G 
 
>high-level Liberal and New Democratic backroom veterans


"and"?  They can all stop bull-sh!tting us with assurances of not entering into a coalition.  That goose is already cooked.
 
>"In that Engage Canada TV ad, they claim the Conservatives are "cutting health care by $34 billion." That's a flat-out lie, folks. But don't take my word for it -
          - here's the Parliamentary Budget Officer:"

I'd like to dream that Akin or someone else will take that particular claim and bury their credibility forever with it, and attach it to every Liberal and NDP candidate who makes the mistake of regurgitating it.  (This isn't some backburner chickensh!t spending program no-one except its recipients cares about - it's health care, which is a big policy topic in any election.)

The "$34 billion" (sometimes cited as "$36 billion") appears to be the 10-year sum of the growth gap between the 6% escalator of Martin's health accord (if it were to continue) and the 3% floor of the Conservative's formula.

The health accord was a Liberal idea, legislated by Liberals, including its termination.  I have to assume at least some of the members (certainly some of the Liberals) of Engage Canada know this.  Therefore, I conclude they know they are telling an untruth.  In brief, they lie.  I suppose they could weasel around it by claiming the Conservatives are "allowing a cut" (passively) to occur.
 
>I honestly wonder what a federal NDP gov't would really be like.

First time out, usually a bit of a cluster.  (Dave Barrett in BC, Bob Rae in ON.)

If that article in the FP about all the imported NDP help swarming into AB is true, I expect AB to be well and truly fukced by the NDP establishment if the NDP also control Parliament.  (Regardless, I expect to be able to add AB to the list above within a year to 18 months.)

Wynne in ON would not have Harper to use as a distraction.  An NDP federal government isn't going to spend its precious revenue by increasing transfers to a Liberal provincial government for which the latter takes spending credit.  Harper at least doesn't have any taxes he wants to raise, while the NDP do.  So when Wynne finally is forced to grow a spine and raise taxes, at least with Harper she has a greater number of tax points to play with (ie. ON taxpayers will face a greater tax squeeze with the NDP in Ottawa).

QC will have demands, and as the province which gave the NDP a large boost it will expect payoffs.  When that happens, federal/provincial and Canada/QC tensions will increase.

The budget will barely be balanced (I won't assume a deficit - the NDP has proven they are willing to raise taxes to close deficits).  Some taxes will go up (as promised, probably more in short order), which means a few thousand jobs go away.  A foot in the door with federally-subsidized childcare should lead to expansion and unionization.  (That'll be an interesting fight - a few years back when I suggested unionized child care workers will probably earn at least as much as teachers, some militant teacher's union types swore that there was no way they'd allow anyone with only a 2-year diploma to match someone with an undergraduate degree.  Whipsawing to follow.)

Defence will be ignored as much as they can ignore it.  Operations will be frequent and short - the NDP have R2P ADD.  VA won't get more, but it might get less.

Some of the vile illiberal legislation might be removed.  Anything useful for keeping tabs on troublesome people will be retained.  "If you have nothing to hide, why are you worried?" will initially sound surprising coming from the lips of NDP supporters who have been talking the other way for the past few months, but it'll become commonplace.

Progressives can't abide "do-nothing" or "unproductive" legislatures.  There will be regulation bloat and plenty of new legislation, much of it mundane stuff that attracts no attention.  But the cost of complying with it and enforcing it will creep in everywhere, and end at the consumer's/taxpayer's wallet.

If we experience another recession, the NDP is the party least likely to try to restrain itself.  The debt could become a really interesting number.
 
Brad Sallows said:
>I honestly wonder what a federal NDP gov't would really be like.

First time out, usually a bit of a cluster.  (Dave Barrett in BC, Bob Rae in ON.)

If that article in the FP about all the imported NDP help swarming into AB is true, I expect AB to be well and truly fukced by the NDP establishment if the NDP also control Parliament.  (Regardless, I expect to be able to add AB to the list above within a year to 18 months.)

Wynne in ON would not have Harper to use as a distraction.  An NDP federal government isn't going to spend its precious revenue by increasing transfers to a Liberal provincial government for which the latter takes spending credit.  Harper at least doesn't have any taxes he wants to raise, while the NDP do.  So when Wynne finally is forced to grow a spine and raise taxes, at least with Harper she has a greater number of tax points to play with (ie. ON taxpayers will face a greater tax squeeze with the NDP in Ottawa).

QC will have demands, and as the province which gave the NDP a large boost it will expect payoffs.  When that happens, federal/provincial and Canada/QC tensions will increase.

The budget will barely be balanced (I won't assume a deficit - the NDP has proven they are willing to raise taxes to close deficits).  Some taxes will go up (as promised, probably more in short order), which means a few thousand jobs go away.  A foot in the door with federally-subsidized childcare should lead to expansion and unionization.  (That'll be an interesting fight - a few years back when I suggested unionized child care workers will probably earn at least as much as teachers, some militant teacher's union types swore that there was no way they'd allow anyone with only a 2-year diploma to match someone with an undergraduate degree.  Whipsawing to follow.)

Defence will be ignored as much as they can ignore it.  Operations will be frequent and short - the NDP have R2P ADD.  VA won't get more, but it might get less.

Some of the vile illiberal legislation might be removed.  Anything useful for keeping tabs on troublesome people will be retained.  "If you have nothing to hide, why are you worried?" will initially sound surprising coming from the lips of NDP supporters who have been talking the other way for the past few months, but it'll become commonplace.

Progressives can't abide "do-nothing" or "unproductive" legislatures.  There will be regulation bloat and plenty of new legislation, much of it mundane stuff that attracts no attention.  But the cost of complying with it and enforcing it will creep in everywhere, and end at the consumer's/taxpayer's wallet.

If we experience another recession, the NDP is the party least likely to try to restrain itself.  The debt could become a really interesting number.

Don't forget lots of environmental friendly programs (e.g. more wind farms, solar projects, etc), killing any pipeline projects out of Alberta
or to eastern Canada, some kind of federal cap-and-trade/carbon tax.
 
Oldgateboatdriver said:
Hope you realize Thuc., that everything West of the Ottawa river includes 100% of Ontario. I thought that was where the "Laurentian Elites" you keep talking about mostly reside. In your scenario, Ontario represents 55% of the "vote" in itself.

By the way everybody: Get ready: He's Baaaack! Very strong rumours around in Montreal today that Gilles Duceppe will come back immediately as leader of the Bloc Quebecois to fight the next election, as all their internal polling show him to be the only one that could get the BQ's fortunes turned around.


And his return may do that, according to an article in Le Devoir, the most recent Leger poll shows this:

   
encadre1_sondage.png


And this:

   
encadre2_sondage.png


The article says, "Le sondage Léger a été mené en ligne les 10 et 11 juin auprès de 1006 répondants. Un échantillon probabiliste de cette taille aurait une marge d’erreur de 3,1 % dans 19 cas sur 20." That means, very roughly, that the poll was conducted 10 and 11 June, there were 1006 respondents and the margin for error is 3.1%, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

What I find interesting is that the BQ's jump in support appears to have come mainly at the expense of the Conservatives (PCC) and the Greens (Verts) and Quebecrs can, by a huge margin, best imagine M Mulcair as their prime minister in Canada.
 
Temp bump due to celebrity.  I expect that once the blocs same tired issues are aired they will settle back down a bit.  It might not matter though.  With Mulcair running at his numbers the bloc might just have moved from third to second in voting races, still not enough to win seats.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
And his return may do that, according to an article in Le Devoir, the most recent Leger poll shows this:

   
encadre1_sondage.png


And this:

   
encadre2_sondage.png


The article says, "Le sondage Léger a été mené en ligne les 10 et 11 juin auprès de 1006 répondants. Un échantillon probabiliste de cette taille aurait une marge d’erreur de 3,1 % dans 19 cas sur 20." That means, very roughly, that the poll was conducted 10 and 11 June, there were 1006 respondents and the margin for error is 3.1%, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

What I find interesting is that the BQ's jump in support appears to have come mainly at the expense of the Conservatives (PCC) and the Greens (Verts) and Quebecrs can, by a huge margin, best imagine M Mulcair as their prime minister in Canada.

Harper Wins! LPC Plans Leadership Convention.

(If true..... on the day)

 
One more thing: the NDP in AB are giving us a staffing preview.  Progressives are typically people in a hurry (from time-to-time they openly express frustration with the need for elections or for people to work their way up a ladder).  The way it is often phrased is that we should be able to appoint the best people, and then get out of their way and let them work.

For all the whining they do about the small-ish crew of minders and advisers and propagandists that occupies the PMO, we should now suspect that a federal NDP government would bring in a small army of non-elected, non-civil service party stalwarts to run the show.  They will have lots of ideas they want to try out, especially the dogmatists and the people recruited from academia.  Canada will be an experiment.  Experiments sometimes fail.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
And here is a further update to David Akin's (Sun News) Predictinator:

    149 days until we vote and it’s anybody’s ball game   
   
050e07f6f1f640c6729f9b6b8a14016f.jpg

    WIth a couple of new polls out in the last week, some new candidates nominated and, voila — here’s the latest seat count from my Predictionator. You can grab an RSS
    feed of all posts tagged with “Predictionator” here.



So, more gains for the NDP at the expense of both the Conservatives and the Liberals.

Unfortunately for Thomas Mulcair, it is too early to peak ... both the CPC and the LPC have plenty of time to turn the tables on the NDP, riding by riding.



And here is yet another of David Akin's Predictinators based on the latest polling data he has seen:

100120607


The only thing that's consistent is that the Liberals are falling farher and father behind.

David Akin suggests that you should "Read up, if you’d like, at the relatively arbitrary way the Predictionator works.


Here is a new Predictinator from Sun News'\ David Akin ...

         
4c90210cc44b4696639cd3b6f7034e3d.jpg


He writes:

    "For the first time since I fired up the Predictionator machine earlier this year, it is spitting out an NDP Minority Government with the Conservatives as the Official Opposition, the Liberals remaining as the (much improved) third party.
      The last few runs of the Predictionator returned the Bloc Québecois with no seats but the return last week of Gilles Duceppe has tipped the scale and now the BQ could win three under Duceppe (we still don’t know where/if he is running and
      that would change Predictionator’s assessment of whatever riding that happened to be). Greens continue to elect only Elizabeth May and the other Green MP in the House, Bruce Hyer, would get replaced by a New Democrat.

      One note on Duceppe: He led his party to catastrophe in 2011. He lost his own seat and the BQ won just 4 seats. Right now, Duceppe would lead his party to an even worse result!

      But, seriously what does this mean?

      Well, first of all, there’s a whole lot of campaigning to go so, though the model I’m using is called The Predictionator, this is not — and I hoped this would be obvious — an actual prediction of what will happen on October 19. What it is though
      is a snapshot of several different datapoints that tries to capture how the actual work of generating votes and seats is going. So far as new inputs go for this week: Some new polls of federal vote intention in some regions, specifically Quebec
      and Atlantic Canada. There are also four recent national polls in here. And then there is me, your trust correspondent, putting his thumb on the dial in about 60 ridings in the country where, based on my discussions with local experts, candidates,
      and, most importantly of all, party workers actively engaged in those local races.

      This exercise is useful to me because it helps me identify where we might see some surprise results, where there are regional shifts away from or towards a party and where more inquiries might be needed. This all helps finding stories for an
      election reporter.

      The Big Idea, as I reviewed the riding by riding results is that, right now, a razor-thin NDP Minority is possible because of lots of razor-thin wins at the riding level. For example, I have, in my model, Matthew Robinson, a professor at the
      University of Western Ontario who is the NDP candidate in London West, winning against incumbent Conservative Ed Holder, the Minister of State for Science and Technology. But Robinson’s “win” right now is by less than 100 votes. A handful
      of these ‘toss-up’ races swing away from the NDP and the Conservatives would likely form a minority.

      No one is anywhere near a majority.

      What had looked like Liberal dominance in Atlantic Canada is now looking less so. Trudeau and his team are still easily the most popular choice of most Atlantic Canadians but, lo and behold, the NDP could pick up their first seat ever on
      Prince Edward Island. And, sure enough, I have discovered that NDP HQ has deployed resources to organize and do voter ID in the riding of Charlottetown, where I currently have Liberal incumbent Sean Casey losing by about 1,000 votes
      in a riding where about 18,000 will vote.

      Liberals also looked dominant for much of this year in Toronto but now, a little less so. Adam Vaughan, just elected in the Trinity-Spadina by-election, now finds himself down by 600 votes against a still-to-be-named New Democrat in the
      new-for-2015 riding of Spadina-Fort York, most of which is the southern half of the current Trinity-Spadina riding.  (And, yes, my model does put a value on anyone’s incumbency and Vaughan, himself, like several other candidates, also gets a
      special bonus just for being who he is.) The six ridings in Scarborough, where there are currently two New Democrats and one Conservative, seemed a near lock to be swept by the Trudeau Liberals. No longer: Dan Harris and Rathika Sitsabaiesan
      now hold Scarborough Southwest and Scarborough North and New Democrat Alex Wilson wins in Scarborough Centre, where the incumbent, Conservative Roxanne James, had been a likely loser in any event to the Liberals. This Scarborough result is
      holding despite the entrance into the race of former Toronto Police Chief Bill Blair in Scarborough Southwest.

      Just as the Liberals are appearing to wilt in the face of NDP popularity in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, the Conservatives are wilting in Alberta. But though I have the NDP with six seats in Alberta now — one in Lethbridge, the rest in Edmonton —
      all but four will be highly contested and it would not surprise me in the least if, after the count is done on October 19, that the NDP exit Alberta only with Edmonton Strathcona (the one seat they already hold there) and Edmonton Griesbach. Still,
      flagging these other four tells me that the other four ridings should attract resources and attention from the war rooms of the national parties."

One wonders about the percentage of "informed" voters ...  :eek:
 
        "The situation for Mr. Trudeau isn’t fatal. He and his team have done a stellar job of reviving moribund riding associations, recruiting volunteers and improving fundraising. The Liberal machine
          hasn’t been this robust in many a year.
          ...
          But the fact remains that Justin Trudeau has only four months to reverse a decline that has been underway now since last October. Above all, he must, he simply must, convince francophone voters in Quebec to rethink their
          commitment to Mr. Mulcair and the NDP."


That's from a useful article by John Ibbitson which is reproduced, below, under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/unless-the-ndp-stumbles-in-quebec-trudeau-cannot-win/article24951213/
gam-masthead.png

Unless the NDP stumbles in Quebec, Trudeau cannot win

JOHN IBBITSON
The Globe and Mail

Published Saturday, Jun. 13, 2015

Readers are right to complain that political journalists focus too much on polls, obsessing on the electoral horse race rather than on the substance of the party platforms.

But sometimes you do need to pay attention to the horse race, and this is one of those times. Why? Because if the NDP can sustain its recent gains in francophone Quebec, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals cannot win the next election. It’s as simple as that.

A CROP poll in late May showed the NDP with 42 per cent of the votes in Quebec, streets ahead of the Liberals, who were at 25 per cent. A June 1 Ipsos poll mirrored the CROP numbers for the NDP and the Liberals. Other polls, including one released Friday by EKOS, also show the NDP strong and the Liberals weak, in Quebec.

“We definitely feel the NDP is in very strong shape there,” EKOS pollster Frank Graves wrote.

Youri Rivest, vice president at CROP, says the NDP strength in Quebec reflects what he calls “a fundamental change” in the province’s politics, from the sovereigntist-federalist battles of the past to a struggle between the left and the right, with the NDP solidly in control of the left.

Mr. Trudeau was initially viewed by Quebec voters as “a fresh face,” says Mr. Rivest. But the freshness has faded, and in any case, the last time Quebeckers gave the Liberals a majority of Quebec seats was in 1980, almost two generations ago.

“I think it will be very difficult,” for the Liberals to turn things around, Mr. Rivest predicts. “I just don’t see how.”

And yet they must turn things around. For without a solid contingent of francophone Quebec seats, the Liberals cannot win the election and probably can’t form the official opposition.

How can that be? Well, let’s play a game.

Let’s imagine that on Oct. 19, the New Democrats hang on to most of their 54 Quebec seats, but otherwise the Liberals have a stellar, break-out-the-champagne night.

They win every one of the 36 seats they currently hold. And they take every seat currently held by the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada, a gain of 13. That brings them to 49.

They take 10 seats from the NDP in Quebec, gaining in Montreal and the Outaouais. That puts the Liberals at 59 seats as they cross the Ottawa River.

In Ontario, Mr. Trudeau has an impressive night. The Liberals defeat every Conservative in Toronto and split the rest of the GTA 50-50 with the Tories, who currently hold almost every seat. That gives the Grits an additional 20 seats. But they have wins elsewhere in Ontario, too: London, Kitchener-Waterloo, Ottawa. Let’s add six more to the total. The Liberals leave Ontario with 85 seats.

They have a good night in the Conservatives’ Prairie bastion, with gains in Winnipeg, Calgary and Edmonton. Let’s say six more seats. That brings them up to 91.

And in British Columbia, they pick up another half-dozen seats in the Lower Mainland and on Vancouver Island, even though most fights in that region are Conservative-versus-NDP contests.

Congratulations, Liberals! You have 97 of 308 seats! You’re probably in third place, again.

But the House is expanding, from 308 to 338, with an additional 15 seats in Ontario, six each in Alberta and British Columbia and three in Quebec. Let’s give the Liberals half the seats in Ontario and B.C., and one of the three seats in Quebec (the Conservatives are expected to take all six Alberta seats).

That brings the Liberal total to 109 of 338 seats. That might be enough for opposition-party status, if the NDP vote collapses outside Quebec. But if the New Democrats hold on to or expand their support in English Canada, the Liberals will be back in third.

As Ipsos pollster Darrell Bricker puts it: “If the Liberals can’t form a geographic base somewhere in the country, especially Quebec, they can’t win.” An Ontario sweep, a la Jean Chrétien, isn’t in the cards because the right is united and the left divided, unlike the 1990s when the opposite was true.

The situation for Mr. Trudeau isn’t fatal. He and his team have done a stellar job of reviving moribund riding associations, recruiting volunteers and improving fundraising. The Liberal machine hasn’t been this robust in many a year.

As Rivest points out, if Gilles Duceppe – who has returned to lead the Bloc Quebecois – can return the political landscape in Quebec back to a fight between sovereigntists and federalists, then Liberal fortunes could revive.

But the fact remains that Justin Trudeau has only four months to reverse a decline that has been underway now since last October. Above all, he must, he simply must, convince francophone voters in Quebec to rethink their commitment to Mr. Mulcair and the NDP.

Otherwise it will not end well for him on election night, no matter what happens in the rest of the land.


You will not be surprised to know that I agree with John Ibbitson: M Trudeau's route to 24 Sussex Drive, even just to Stornaway, must start in and be based in Quebec. If he cannot win Quebec ~ if he cannot take 40ish seats there ~ then he will be just another Liberal loser.
 
Poll results: The Trudeau/Liberal honeymoon is over.  The Mulcair/NDP honeymoon (kicked up by AB results) is in progress.  There isn't going to be a Harper/CPC honeymoon, and with the Senate soaking up all the press and confused in the mind of many voters with Parliament I suspect the CPC is at its low point.
 
Brad Sallows said:
Poll results: The Trudeau/Liberal honeymoon is over.  The Mulcair/NDP honeymoon (kicked up by AB results) is in progress.  There isn't going to be a Harper/CPC honeymoon, and with the Senate soaking up all the press and confused in the mind of many voters with Parliament I suspect the CPC is at its low point.

And as has been noted by you and others, the NDP in Alberta is in the process of delivering a Teachable Moment courtesy of their imported Staff.
 
Brad Sallows said:
One more thing: the NDP in AB are giving us a staffing preview.  Progressives are typically people in a hurry (from time-to-time they openly express frustration with the need for elections or for people to work their way up a ladder).  The way it is often phrased is that we should be able to appoint the best people, and then get out of their way and let them work.

Buahahaha,  this is so wrong it's funny.  I've met dozens of very hard conservatives who think the exact same way.  Especially the election part.  Impatience and intolerance fall in all places of the political spectrum.  Last I check the "progressive unions" are not that in favour of appointing the best ppl and getting out of the way.  Talk about confirmation bias.
 
Thucydides said:
The trick is to have renewal in a peaceful and orderly fashion, rather than seeing leaders suddenly knifed by party insiders, bakbenchers or even outside influences (looking at the vast array of "causes" funded by the American Tides foundation here in Canada, is anyone really willing to bet they are not also in our political process at the party level as well?).

Canadians can point to the abrupt exit of leadrs like John Diefenbaker or Jean Chrétien as examples of how it should not be done. Maybe we should revisit "The Next Conservative Leader" thread, and also read the tea leaves WRT how the Prime Minister may choose to manage his own exit.


More on the campaign by the Tides Foundation in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Vancouver Sun:

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/story.html?id=11131829#pq=blwwy4
vancouver-sun-logo.png

Opinion: Anti-oil campaign funding murky
Invisible: U.S. foundations and Tides pour money into ‘earned media,’ protests and legal actions

By Vivian Krause, Special to the Vancouver Sun June 12, 2015

Pull Together, a project of the Sierra Club of B.C., the Raven Trust and First Nations against Enbridge, today begins its “Week to End Enbridge.”

This is the latest move in The Tar Sands Campaign, the funding juggernaut behind the scenes of the movement against pipelines and tankers.

Launched in 2008 by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund and the Tides Foundation, The Tar Sands Campaign aims to stop the transport and export of Alberta oil by pipeline, tanker and by rail. Over the past five years, Tides has paid at least $28 million to 75 First Nations and environmental groups involved in this campaign.

In Pull Together’s first round of raising funds, the single largest donor was SumOfUs, a New York-based group that contributed $40,000, according to PullTogether’s website. SumOfUs is also the group that recently pressured Tim Horton’s to stop running Enbridge ads.

“SumOfUs is funded entirely by donations from thousands of members across the globe,” its website says. Not quite. Since SumOfUs began in 2011, it has received at least $815,000 from Tides and the New Organizing Institute which is also heavily funded by Tides. China Brotsky, who was employed by Tides for 20 years, is now the Director of Operations at SumOfUs.

Back in 2010, the Tar Sands Campaign was discovered only because Tides reported payments to dozens of environmental group in its U.S. tax returns, publicly available documents. But little was known about what the campaign entailed until its original strategy paper, written in 2008 by Corporate Ethics International, was posted online.

According to the original strategy paper, the Tar Sands Campaign aims to sway investment capital away from Canada and tarnish the appeal of Alberta oil by generating a “highly negative media profile” and a “steady drumbeat of bad press” in order to brand Alberta oil as the “poster child” of dirty fuel.

“We need to generate a great deal of media attention on the shortcomings and risks associated with tar sands oil development and consumption,” the strategy paper reads. That’s exactly what First Nations and environmental groups have been doing.

The Tar Sands Campaign aims to embarrass Canada, weaken the Alberta government and “reduce the attractiveness of the Alberta oil industry for the companies themselves, investors and financiers,” the strategy says.

Coast to coast to coast, the major organizations that are part of the anti-pipeline campaign are or have been partly funded by Tides, including the Council of Canadians, the Tsleil-Waututh, the Wet’suwet’en, the Great Bear Initiative, World Wildlife Fund Canada, the Pembina Institute, the Sierra Club, Forest Ethics, Lead Now, Idle No More, the Western Canada Wilderness Committee and SumOfUs.

Living Oceans Society and the Tsleil-Waututh First Nation recently collaborated with the city of Vancouver on a study of the risks associated with Kinder Morgan’s proposal to expand the TransMountain pipeline. The study estimated a large oil spill would expose one million people to toxic air emissions. Mayor Gregor Robertson concluded the effects of the TransMountain expansion could be “disastrous.”

“We can’t put a price on our children,” said Reuben George, speaking for the Tsleil-Waututh.

None of the media critiqued the study but Blair King did. A chemist and blogger based in Langley, King found that in making its estimations, the study had attributed the toxicity of benzene to a mixture that was not pure benzene, thereby wildly overstating the danger of emissions that would be associated with an oil spill.

Living Oceans Society has received $274,000 (2010-14) from Tides, including a small grant specifically for “exposing the threats to human health posed by a Kinder Morgan spill,” which is what it just did, or tried to. The Tsleil-Waututh are also funded by Tides, and were paid $79,368 last year.

When environmental risks assessments are funded and publicized by groups with an agenda, such as the Tar Sands Campaign, this needs to be out in the open.

Building pipelines is about breaking the U.S. monopoly on Canadian oil. Without Northern Gateway and Energy East, Canadian oil producers are forced to sell into the U.S. because that’s the only place large volumes of oil can be delivered now.

The U.S. has Canada over a barrel and it’s costing Canada billions in lost revenue and royalties because we aren’t receiving global prices for our oil.

By exaggerating environmental risks, generating bad press and taking legal action, environmental and First Nations groups can stall pipeline construction indefinitely.

The success of the Tar Sands Campaign hinges on its ability to generate “earned media,” publicity that is gained by making it into the news cycle. Earned media depends on the creativity and credibility of the activists and the invisibility of the money behind them.

It’s no surprise First Nations and environmental groups don’t let on about their involvement in the Tar Sands Campaign nor their funding from Tides. That’s part of the strategy.

The Tar Sands Campaign’s strategy paper explicitly says, “The co-ordination centre shall remain invisible to the outside and to the extent possible, staff will be ‘purchased’ from engaged organizations.”

U.S. tax returns and other documents show The Sierra Club of B.C. has been paid at least $99,000 (2012-14) by Tides, including funds earmarked “to stop the Enbridge and Kinder Morgan pipelines, including working with First Nations.”

Sierra Club reported in its Canadian tax returns for 2013 it received zero foreign funding for political activity but has since acknowledged that its tax return was filed incorrectly.

Tides also paid $373,835 (2009-14) to the Great Bear Initiative Society, led by Art Sterritt. That included funds specifically earmarked for responding to the media.

Imagine Sterritt or Reuben George, grandson of the great Chief Dan George, being introduced in media coverage as part of the Rockefeller Brothers’s Tar Sands Campaign. That wouldn’t go over the same way.

Vivian Krause is a Vancouver researcher and writer.


I don't know how much of the many and sundry green campaigns' money is spent exclusively on trying "to embarrass Canada, weaken the Alberta government and “reduce the attractiveness of the Alberta oil industry for the companies themselves, investors and financiers,”" but I suspect that there is some correlation, and, possibly, some cross-funding between the anti-oil sands movements (and their US paymasters) and the anti-CPC campaigns (and their union and progressive paymasters, some of whom may be in the USA, too.)

Another challenge to those of you who plan to vote against Prime Minister Harper and the CPC (rather than for a different programme or a different leader): ask the leaders of the other parties where their supporters get their money?
 
>I've met dozens of very hard conservatives who think the exact same way.

Good for you, but I have movements and governments as examples in mind, not acquaintances.

My rule for judging the Conservative government of Canada is simple: anything unflattering is widely and loudly broadcast.  The bureaucracy finds ways to publicize its complaints when political flacks have too much influence in the gap between MPs and the civil service.  The volume of such complaints has been fairly low, hence whatever hard-core conservatives think, it is not really being put into effect where it matters.

We'll see how the AB public service responds.  If there are few complaints, then the imported help probably are not stepping on any toes and AB probably did not elect a bunch of figureheads for viziers.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
More on the campaign by the Tides Foundation in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Vancouver Sun:

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/story.html?id=11131829#pq=blwwy4

I don't know how much of the many and sundry green campaigns' money is spent exclusively on trying "to embarrass Canada, weaken the Alberta government and “reduce the attractiveness of the Alberta oil industry for the companies themselves, investors and financiers,”" but I suspect that there is some correlation, and, possibly, some cross-funding between the anti-oil sands movements (and their US paymasters) and the anti-CPC campaigns (and their union and progressive paymasters, some of whom may be in the USA, too.)

Another challenge to those of you who plan to vote against Prime Minister Harper and the CPC (rather than for a different programme or a different leader): ask the leaders of the other parties where their supporters get their money?

How is this any different than big companies and banks funding parties, or the NRA and "Right to Life" movement in the US funding similar political organizations in Canada.  There's sketchy financing on both sides of the political spectrum.  It just happens that environmental groups are a BIG DEAL, and the environment itself is a BIG DEAL and moves a lot of votes and money. 

Its unfortunate that the Conservatives who are naturally on the side of the environment lost their way and went with business instead.  The GOP in the US invented National Parks to conserve (see what I did there) the natural environment from the rape and pillage of US frontier mentality, and as a buffer to the modern age (keeping the old ways of hunting and trapping alive).  The Green Party in Canada was founded with a large number of disaffected PC's and form the core of the Greens capitalistic environmental policy vice the NDP socialist policies (Elizabeth May represents the left of her party).  Mulroney was the most environmental of the PM's with the Acid Rain Treaty and the phosphate legislation to save Lake Erie.
 
Underway said:
or the NRA and "Right to Life" movement in the US funding similar political organizations in Canada. 

Please provide examples of these two organizations providing funding to Canadian political parties.
 
Underway said:
How is this any different than big companies and banks funding parties, or the NRA and "Right to Life" movement in the US funding similar political organizations in Canada.  There's sketchy financing on both sides of the political spectrum.  It just happens that environmental groups are a BIG DEAL, and the environment itself is a BIG DEAL and moves a lot of votes and money. 

Its unfortunate that the Conservatives who are naturally on the side of the environment lost their way and went with business instead.  The GOP in the US invented National Parks to conserve (see what I did there) the natural environment from the rape and pillage of US frontier mentality, and as a buffer to the modern age (keeping the old ways of hunting and trapping alive).  The Green Party in Canada was founded with a large number of disaffected PC's and form the core of the Greens capitalistic environmental policy vice the NDP socialist policies (Elizabeth May represents the left of her party).  Mulroney was the most environmental of the PM's with the Acid Rain Treaty and the phosphate legislation to save Lake Erie.

I believe that the point was that for those voting AGAINST the conservatives vice FOR the NDP/Liberals/Greens to make sure that they do the research to get a clearer picture of what they're voting for. It doesn't matter, in this case, than the conservatives may or may not have funding for outside agencies too but rather that the NDP/Liberals/Greens also have their hands dirty and may not provide the alternative that people are looking for.
 
Thank you Bird_Gunner45, that is, indeed, my point.

I applaud all those who are going to vote FOR the Bloq or the Greens or the Liberals or the NDP ... I may not agree with you on policy or persons, but I respect your choice to vote for something or someone.

My challenge is to those who have decided, often for reasons I understand, equally often for reasons I do't understand, to simply vote against Prime Minister Harper and/or the CPC; I understand that you are angry or just fed up or, maybe, frustrated or even bored but you have, it seems to me, put the cart before the horse ... I forget where I read/heard it now, but someone wrote, in a well known novel or play, an exchange - involving war - between two principled men: one said to the other, after an over-long explanation of 'why we fight,' "I know what you're against ... what are you FOR?" That's my question. If you're going to spoil your ballot, saying, in effect, "a plague on all your houses," then that's a positive choice, but if all you're going to do is walk into the voting booth and put your X against anyone except the Conservative then I believe that you are being irresponsible; you're expressing an opinion, of sorts, but it's not, really, an informed opinion, is it? As with the question: we know what you're against, but that's really not good enough; we need to know what you're for.

Thanks, Bird_Gunner45, for giving me the chance to claify my position ... I hope I'm clear, anyway.
 
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