Election 2015

[Old Sweat]

Groucho, Harpo or Chico?

or their cousin, Time?

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Then you're clearly not very familiar with Marx.

:brickwall:

Le sigh. Yes, please point to that model Marxist country on the map...where everyone is equal and each according to his means, etc...now which one was it again?

 

[ballz]

Norway will probably come out of this no better off than Alberta.

Every time someone pointed to the Norway model, I pointed out that they now have a population that believes luxury spending like free post-secondary for 8 years is an entitlement, and will not respond well to being told they will now have to work for those kinds of things on their own when oil, inevitably, runs out or becomes worth much less. I know someone in Norway who's program is not offered in Norway, so they are paying for all of her expenses so she can take it in the UK... Who could have predicted that this madness is not sustainable?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/08/us-norway-economy-insight-idUSBREA4703Z20140508

 

[cryco]

that article is from last year, but holy crap, their rainy day fund is ridiculous...

quoting article:
< Norway had the foresight to put aside a massive $860 billion rainy-day cash pile, or $170,000 per man, woman and child. It also has huge budget surpluses, a top-notch AAA credit rating and low unemployment, so tangible decline is not imminent.>

 

[Kirkhill]

that article is from last year, but holy crap, their rainy day fund is ridiculous...

quoting article:
< Norway had the foresight to put aside a massive $860 billion rainy-day cash pile, or $170,000 per man, woman and child. It also has huge budget surpluses, a top-notch AAA credit rating and low unemployment, so tangible decline is not imminent.>

That would just about buy every living Norwegian an Oxford University education (link) or a liver transplant per family (the kids get to decide if Dad needs one to repair the akvavit damage...) (link).

A Trillion bucks just doesn't go as far as it used to I guess.

 

[ModlrMike]

But then Norway doesn't have non-productive regions relying on productive regions for their over spending. They also have a much smaller geography than we do, and a much higher personal tax rate. Apples and rutabagas comparison.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

They also have all that shit, non alcoholic beer that you think is a cheap bargain till you drink 20 of them and realize you don't have a buzz. Seems like they don't like over indulgers. Go figure, another disadvantage of not knowing a foreign language.

Probably why liver transplants aren't high on the list ;D

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Speaking of oil republics going tits up... Look no further than Venezuela

http://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2015/01/13/the-impending-collapse-of-Venezuela/

The Impending Collapse Of Venezuela

On Tuesday January 13th, the ratings agency Moody’s downgraded Venezuela to Caa3, one step above default. This comes as no surprise – markets have been pricing in the likelihood of default for some time now.

Curiously, though, Moody’s changed the outlook from negative to stable:

The stable outlook is based on Moody’s view that even if the oil price drops further, expected losses to bondholders are likely to be consistent with a Caa3 rating and unlikely to reach levels associated with lower ratings.

This is too generous. Moody’s assessment assumes that Venezuela’s problem is mainly a balance of payments crisis caused by a rapidly falling oil price and inadequate foreign reserves. But the reality is different – and far worse.

The balance of payments problem is bad enough. The falling oil price is causing a widening foreign exchange gap. Venezuela needs an oil price of $100 per barrel to balance its external accounts, but oil is falling rapidly towards $40 per barrel and so far, Venezuela has failed to persuade other oil producers to reduce production in order to support the price. Venezuela’s foreign exchange outflows now substantially exceed its inflows, not least because it is supporting a complex and unhelpful exchange rate system: its US$ reserves are down to $22bn and falling fast. Venezuela will probably attempt to staunch the bleeding with tighter price and exchange controls, but all this will do is accelerate demonetization of the economy as more and more trading shifts to the black market.

But the real issue is Venezuela’s domestic economic problems. Venezuela has been in deep recession for most of the last year. Its budget deficit in October 2014 – before the most recent catastrophic oil price falls – was 17%. Inflation is officially at 65%, unofficially probably far more. Import controls, inflation and the overvalued bolivar are causing shortages of essential goods...... More at the link above

Just another example of why populism/marxism/communism/socialism (whatever term is in vogue atm) doesn't work. Governments have no business meddling in the affairs of private enterprise. Prior to joining the military, I worked for the NB Power Corporation (a hydro electric company). We burned oil at many of our plants and much of it came from Venezuela.

Two of our plants burned Orimulsion, a special type of fuel that was Sole-sourced from Venezuela. PDVSA (Venezuelan State Oil) nationalized and went back on the deal they had signed with us costing our power company billions of dollars and forcing us to refurbish plants at considerable cost to the taxpayer in order to burn alternative fuels.

I am laughing now and won't shed a tear when Maduro has his head mounted up on a a stick along with the rest of the criminals in the Venezuelan government. You reap what you sow as far as I'm concerned. 

Venezuela had oil money, they blew it on stupid populist projects while managing to alienate everyone in the Western Hemisphere. Now that the oil money has run dry, they have nobody to blame but themselves. Chavez's and now Maduro's tough talk has been proven to be nothing but hot air.

 

[Brad Sallows]

>Then we take those funds and use them to diversify the economy.

Ah.  An underpants gnome solution.
1. More funds.
2. ???
3. Diverse economy!!!

cf. "Misallocation of Capital"

 

[Kirkhill]

They also have all that shit, non alcoholic beer that you think is a cheap bargain till you drink 20 of them and realize you don't have a buzz. Seems like they don't like over indulgers. Go figure, another disadvantage of not knowing a foreign language.

Probably why liver transplants aren't high on the list ;D

Never met Norwegians on their home turf - Only in Denmark, Sweden and Seattle.....Liver transplants amongst the Ex-Pats would seem to be a necessity. 

 

[Old Sweat]

The Young Dauphin gave a radio interview in London yesterday. One suspects that the CPC breathed a collective sigh of relief after hearing a transcript as much of the interview was about the battle against ISIS and he tied himself in knots coming up with convoluted non-answers. The reaction of Liberal loyalist and one time war room operative Warren Kinsella, along with comments on his column, may be found here. Kinsella's item also includes a link to a tape of the interview.

http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/01/trudeau-and-isis-the-perils-of-local-media/

 

[Rifleman62]

We, Canada, could be in trouble.

 

[Brad Sallows]

One of WK's comments caught my attention:

"Two: is he saying that we should only ever fight when we know we can win?"

According to Sun Tzu: Yes.

 

[YZT580]

Sun Tzu wasn't talking about never but rather arranging the circumstances so that the odds were in his favour before engaging.  They are two very different approaches.  Boy wonder would never take a stand according to his own words.

 

[Spartan]

It has been addressed about Mr. Trudeau's apparent lack of policy direction.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trudeau-dodges-question-on-running-deficits-1.2199217

LONDON, Ont. -- Justin Trudeau won't say if he thinks the federal government should abandon its commitment to a balanced budget given the economic turmoil caused by plunging oil prices.

The Liberal leader said the Bank of Canada's surprise interest rate cut Wednesday is further proof that Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government is on the wrong economic track.

He said the government's priority should be on spurring economic growth and creating jobs -- not delivering a $2.4-billion tax cut to the country's wealthiest families.




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Some economists say the Conservative government should be investing in things like infrastructure to encourage growth and give up its fixation on balancing the 2015-16 budget after six years of deficits.

But Trudeau wouldn't go that far.

He dodged repeatedly when asked if he believes it would be wise to continue running a small deficit until the economy stabilizes.

"I think one of the things Canadians expect of their governments is to be fiscally responsible," Trudeau said as he wrapped up a two-day Liberal caucus retreat.

"It's not particularly fiscally responsible to put all your eggs in the same basket, to pin all your hopes on oil prices remaining high and, when they fall, being forced to make it up as they go along."

The Conservative government's recently announced plan to allow couples with young children to split their income for tax purposes -- at a cost to the federal treasury of $2.4 billion a year -- is another example of "a terrible, fiscally irresponsible decision," he added.

Trudeau indicated his first line of attack would be to scrap the income splitting scheme, rather than run a deficit.

"We need to make sure that the government's priority is on creating growth and jobs for the middle class," he said.

"Right now, their priority is on continuing to promise a $2-billion tax break to 15 per cent of wealthier Canadians. That's simply not responsible and that's certainly the first thing to take off the table."

Liberal finance critic Scott Brison said the Conservative pledge to balance the budget in the coming year is "a political imperative, not an economic one."

"It's pure politics," he said in an interview.

"The only thing they're interested in is creating a notional surplus on the eve of an election to fund their regressive vote-buying schemes."

However, Brison also wouldn't say whether a Liberal government would be prepared to run a deficit.

He said there are a number of things a government could do to stimulate growth, without impacting its balance sheet. For example, he said the government could partner with pension funds to invest in infrastructure.

The last part is the scariest piece of the whole article. This is not a another bag of money that is accessible for pet projects or infrastructure. Pension funds should be used for pensions.

If this is what the advisers or members are inclined to think, then the Liberal Party is far worse off.

 

[Kirkhill]

It has been addressed about Mr. Trudeau's apparent lack of policy direction.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trudeau-dodges-question-on-running-deficits-1.2199217
The last part is the scariest piece of the whole article. This is not a another bag of money that is accessible for pet projects or infrastructure. Pension funds should be used for pensions.

If this is what the advisers or members are inclined to think, then the Liberal Party is far worse off.

Agreed entirely Spartan.... That way lies Cyprus  http://army.ca/forums/threads/103357.0.html

 

[Kirkhill]

On the issue of Oil Prices:

Energy Aspects oil analyst Virendra Chauhan said prices were likely to rise in the second half of 2015.

"I think you will start seeing the effect of lower supplies from Q2 15," Chauhan told the Reuters Global Oil Forum. "Overall, we think that, led by Asia, global oil demand has started to pick up."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/22/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0KV04Q20150122

BP boss Bob Dudley: Oil prices 'low for up to 3 years'

talian oil group Eni has said the next spike could be around $200 a barrel.

Eni's chief executive, Claudio Descalzi, said the oil industry would cut capital spending by 10-13% this year because of slumping prices.

He said that would create longer-term shortages and sharp price rises in four to five years' time, if the Opec cartel fails to cut supplies.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30913321

$50 Today.  $200 in 4 years.  Split the difference and you get $125.  Even short sighted businesses can manage a four year horizon.  And the Oil Patch is not short sighted.  Most of their projects take at least that long to negotiate - let alone implement.  Oil traders - now they are another matter.

 

[ModlrMike]

Mr Trudeau has provided his opposition with a rallying cry:

"Hands Off Our Pensions!"

 

[The Bread Guy]

This is not a another bag of money that is accessible for pet projects or infrastructure. Pension funds should be used for pensions.

It should, but it hasn't been - by either of the two parties vying for the steering wheel - and Brison's line suggests it will be again under Trudeau fils.

Mr Trudeau has provided his opposition with a rallying cry:

"Hands Off Our Pensions!"

Don't know how popular that'll be, given the general lack of public outcry over previous government dips into that well.

 

[Rifleman62]

Would someone please explain to me where this stat comes from and why only wealthy Cdns will benefit:

...... promise a $2-billion tax break to 15 per cent of wealthier Canadians

Wouldn't everyone?

My wife and I, both retired, income split, and we are not wealthy, financially.