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Election 2015

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ballz said:
Could you give a couple of examples, please?


My first would be the Canada Health Act which I believe intrudes improperly and counter-productively into an area of exclusive provincial jurisdiction. I emphasize counter-productive because provisions of the Canada Health Act can be, and have been, used to stifle innovation in health care financing.

My second is income taxes, specifically income taxes imposed on corporations. I think corporate taxes should be matters of exclusive provincial jurisdiction. Such a change would, I think:

    1. Deprive the national government of a source of income, thus restraining the unchecked growth of unnecessary government; and

    2. Drive those taxes down as provinces would compete for business.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
My first would be the Canada Health Act which I believe intrudes improperly and counter-productively into an area of exclusive provincial jurisdiction. I emphasize counter-productive because provisions of the Canada Health Act can be, and have been, used to stifle innovation in health care financing.

My second is income taxes, specifically income taxes imposed on corporations. I think corporate taxes should be matters of exclusive provincial jurisdiction. Such a change would, I think:

    1. Deprive the national government of a source of income, thus restraining the unchecked growth of unnecessary government; and

    2. Drive those taxes down as provinces would compete for business.

At the risk of engaging in ill-informed speculation aka punditry, I suggest that if the feds withdrew from corporate taxation, the provinces would not see this as as a way to compete for business, but rather as an unforeseen gift and raise their own rates to milk the corporate cow.
 
Old Sweat said:
At the risk of engaging in ill-informed speculation aka punditry, I suggest that if the feds withdrew from corporate taxation, the provinces would not see this as as a way to compete for business, but rather as an unforeseen gift and raise their own rates to milk the corporate cow.


Initially, that's probably true for many, maybe even most of them ... but one or two wouldn't and the migration of service industries would be quick and massive. See California today.
 
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, is an interesting rant column by Lysiane Gagnon in which she decries the lack of French in the recent Liberal Party of Canada convention:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/did-liberals-forget-quebec/article17097813/#dashboard/follows/
gam-masthead.png

Did the Liberals forget Quebec?

LYSIANE GAGNON
Special to The Globe and Mail

Published Wednesday, Feb. 26 2014

The biannual convention of the Liberal Party of Canada took place in Montreal, but it might as well have been held in Saskatoon or Halifax. The French presence could hardly be felt.

There were very few delegates from Quebec – no more than 10 per cent of convention participants, according to insiders interviewed by Le Devoir. In his closing address, Justin Trudeau spoke almost entirely in English, and the rare paragraphs he delivered in French were even flatter than the rest of his otherwise unsubstantial speech.

Hélène Buzzetti, who covered the convention for Le Devoir, reported that the debates in several workshops were exclusively in English. Most guest speakers spoke only in English.

Even retired general Andrew Leslie, who is bilingual, spoke in French for just one minute of a 24-minute speech. “The hall was full for his speech, even though it took place during the Canada-U.S. Olympic hockey match,” Ms. Buzzetti wrote. “When four francophone guest speakers succeeded him on the podium, the audience vaporized.”

According to a CROP poll done a week before the convention, the Liberal Party had lost six points in Quebec since January, although it remained ahead of the other federal parties. The New Democratic Party was more popular by five points among francophones, and Thomas Mulcair was slightly ahead of Justin Trudeau in response to who would make the best prime minister. But, CROP analyst Youri Rivest warned: “The electorate is very volatile.”

The dearth of French-speaking delegates at the convention, as well as the obvious disregard for French on the part of party organizers, say more than a poll about the real state of the Liberals in Quebec. For now, it looks like a rather empty shell.

Some delegates at the Liberal convention were openly worried about the strong possibility that the Parti Québécois could win a majority in Quebec’s upcoming provincial election. But maybe they shouldn’t worry that much, for a PQ victory, while raising the prospect of another referendum on sovereignty, would in turn help the Liberals gain ground against the New Democrats outside Quebec.

If the “separatist” threat is increasing, Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals will appear as the uncompromising champions of national unity, while the New Democrats have lost credibility on the issue by rejecting a key provision of the Clarity Act. The NDP, whose MPs mostly come from Quebec, has said that a majority of 50 per cent of the vote plus one (instead of a “clear majority”) would be enough for the federal government to start negotiating the breakup of Canada.

As for policy, the convention showed that the Liberals, true to their past, are heavy on costly “national” programs, and light on the question of how taxpayers pay for them. The fact that Mr. Trudeau doesn’t seem too worried about facts doesn’t help. In a cute clip made for television, he likes to say that the middle class hasn’t had a pay raise in 30 years – that is, since his father left power. That’s a blatant falsehood, contradicted by statistics.

More bizarrely, in his opening speech, Mr. Trudeau attributed the climate of xenophobia and division generated by the PQ’s secular charter to the state of the economy, hinting that Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government is the real culprit. Such a charter, he said, would be “unthinkable” if the national economy was well run.

But this is ludicrous. This charter has nothing to do with the economy; it originates exclusively in the PQ’s resolve to play the identity card. Is Mr. Trudeau really living in Quebec?


I have, pretty consistently, argued that M. Trudeau's road to power begins in and must go through Québec. I wonder if M. Trudeau agrees ... perhaps he thinks, as I do, that governing Canada, all of Canada, means governing without Québec, not against it, just without paying too much attention to its incessant whining.

My guess is that M. Trudeau was/is (at the convention and right now) campaigning, hard, in suburban Ontario and BC. I suspect that he aims to field a suite of policies and candidates that will get him 25+ seats in QC, many at the expense of the NDP. He will also look to grow his Atlantic Canada seat count from 12 to at least 16 of the of the 32 seats available there. He can hope for small gains is the Prairies, from 2 to, say, 6 seats. That gives him 48 seats, including one in the Territories. He needs 170 for a slim majority; that means he has to 'grow' from 13 to 122 seats in BC and ON.

Compare that to Stephen Harper's task which is only to hold on to most of the 165ish seats he currently holds and gain say ⅓ of the 30 new seats.

Québec matters, it will account for 23% of the seats in the next HoC. But that's a far cry from the 28% of seats that Québec held when Trudeau père held power, and it's share will fall, again, in the next redistribution and in the one after that. I am certain M. Trudeau will fight hard in Québec, unveiling policies that will appeal to the statist and socialistic voters there; but while he needs to go 'through' Québec he must win and win BIG, in BC and ON.
 
I've moved this over from here, a gun-control thread -- "Swiss Arms Classic Green reclassified - now Prohibited."

dangerboy said:
I don't think this will factor at all in the elections, most people could not care at all about a weapon becoming reclassified.
Speaking only for myself but I suspect there are several of us out here, this isn't the issue but it's certainly an issue -- one in a growing series.

I've had a strong tendency to vote conservative (lower-case intentional) rather than adamantly for any particular party.  The Conservatives appear to be losing what appealed to me in recent elections, in that they're increasingly building bigger government and legislating things that don't require it, and the gap between what they say and do is becoming greater.

So while this isn't my tipping point, the space available to forgive poor CPC decisions is diminishing.     :(
 
lumpy-friends-teeter-totter.jpg


How much more to the tipping point?

I'm still stuck with the lack of credible alternatives.
 
Libertarian?

They have as many seats as Reform had, once.
 
Old Sweat said:
National Newswatch is reporting Jim Flaherty has resigned.


Indeed! It appears, from some Twitter feeds, that he will (may?) stay on as an MP for a while.

I think this may have an impact on some CPC leadership candidates.
 
I think Sun Media's David Akin is on to something with this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from Sun News:

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/straighttalk/archives/2014/03/20140328-152221.html
SunTVNews.png

Harper's history key to a Conservative future

David Akin, National Bureau Chief

March 28th, 2014

OTTAWA - Both his fans and his critics agree on one thing about Stephen Harper. He wants to transform the country, so Canadians will come to see his Conservatives and not the Liberals as the natural governing party.

By the election of 2015, he will have done much in that regard.

But to make that work endure, the Conservatives need history on their side. They need a narrative of Canada in which Conservative Party values are integral to the story. Voters who buy this history will then turn to Conservative leaders as the default choice in this century the way Canadians turned to Liberal leaders by default in the last century.

Governments have been turning to history to legitimize their rule pretty much forever. Shakespeare's history plays, for example, featuring heroes like Henry V or villains like Richard III, were endorsed by Queen Elizabeth I's censors precisely because they told England's history in a way that would help solidify what was, at the time, a relatively shaky monarchy.

In Canada, the last half of the 20th century was sustained by a reading of Canadian history in which the Liberals' Constitution Act and Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms of 1982 played a central role. Liberals in Ottawa were (and still are) flabbergasted that the current Conservative government didn't do enough to celebrate the charter's 30th anniversary in 2012.

For Liberals, the charter is a foundational document in their narrative of our history - a history in which English, French, First Nations worked towards the compromise of that 1982 Constitution. Liberals are unabashedly proud of that work and, if you ask them, they will invariably say it's one of the things the "defines" Canada.

But Conservatives (and New Democrats, for that matter) say "charter love" defines a Liberal. They believe the text of the charter is flawed. And without Quebec the whole process is flawed - a work half-done.

Conservatives, in any event, prefer the Bill of Rights, brought in by Progressive Conservative John Diefenbaker's government in 1960. The Bill of Rights spoke to the protection of property rights - central to just about any conservative philosophy - while the charter did not.

In any event, dry constitutional negotiations or House of Commons debate are not nearly so evocative of Conservative values as a history of the Canadian people which show us to be a vibrant people establishing our dominion over nature (Diefenbaker's DEW line to Sir John A. Macdonald's CPR) or over American invaders (The War of 1812).

"As I reflect on Diefenbaker's legacy," Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird said this week, "I realise that our past makes me optimistic about our future. What we can offer the world is more important, not less. More relevant, not less. I think that it is fair to say our country has defied the low expectations of 'middle power'. We have defied it with the ambition of leading rather than following."

Baird's 2,000-word speech was a neat encapsulation of this Conservative view of our history. There was a brief mention of Dief's Bill of Rights, but much talk about how the Chief stood up to Soviet communism, just as Harper is standing up to Russian imperialism today.

"We are builders and pioneers," Baird said. "We are warriors when war is thrust upon us, and we are compassionate when confronted by catastrophe."

Professional historians have been taking issue with Conservatives for this reading of history but their argument is a column for another day.

Today, it's worth marking Baird's speech as a manifesto, a rationale for the Harper government's decision to spend millions marking the War of 1812, and millions more for upcoming First World War commemorations.

It is through the re-telling of these stories that Harper hopes Conservatives will be able to displace Liberals as Canada's "natural governing party".


The speech (John Baird's speech) to which David Akin referred is: here.

I don't think you'll see these ideas in specific platform proposals ~ those will be more prosaic, aimed at our pocketbooks, at the pocketbooks of those who are not, already, fully committed to the progressive parties, in any event. But it will colour the whole campaign, and the 18 months leading up to it.
 
Took them long enough to figure that out. The defining speech was excerpted for an election ad in the 2011 general election. While the longer speech it is part of is unapologetically partisan, the piece played daily on the radio and TV was a brilliant distillation of the Conservative vision of Canada:

Canada is - and always has been - our country
And we want Canada to be a true north that is as strong and as free as it can be, in every way that matters, the best country in the world!
That’s why we’re here. That’s why we strive. That’s why we serve

Canada must reflect the true character of its people.
Honourable in our dealings.
Faithful to our commitments.
Loyal to our friends.
By turns a courageous warrior and a compassionate neighbour.

It is our purpose, that Canada must be great. It must be great for all Canadians.
It must be a country of hope, and an example to the world.
Only when it is these things, when Canada is all that it can be, only then can we say that our work is done!

And look at that message! It speaks of inclusion (Canada is our country), tells Canadians that our values and character are those of the best of people (honourable, faithful, loyal, courageous and compassionate), and that our national purpose is to be a nation of hope and an example to the world. I sure want to live in *that* country, and I hope all my neighbours are *those* people.

Naturally we all know this isn't true, but it appeals to our higher nature, and promises that this is a goal that we can strive for and achieve. Probably the most "positive" political message I have ever seen in my own lifetime.
 
This ~ "Two public sector unions working to defeat Harper government" ~ is totally inappropriate and plays, directly, into the CPC's hands.

    “It is obvious that we have to get rid of this government and what is clear is that we can’t wait until spring or October 2015.”
      (Denis Lemelin, president of the Canadian Union of Postal Workers.)

Tony Clement et al will have a field day with this.
 
And the Tories have just pushed one of their key players under the bus.

CBC reports that Dimitri Soudas, former director of communications for the party and current executive director, has been fired for interfering in the nomination battle of his fiancee.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/dimitri-soudas-fired-as-conservative-party-executive-director-1.2592198

 
To be accurate, he pretty much lay down in front of it on his own accord.
 
I'm going to put this here because this *should* be an election issue. With the average Canadian family spending 44% of their income on taxation (more than food, transportation or shelter), there is a considerable drag on the productive economy, and of course an inability for families to save, invest or pass on wealth to the next generation.

Of course the real issue is government spending, the Duncan report put it in perspective when it identified the need to cut by 17% simply to balance the budget (this does nothing about the $100 billion new debt the McGuinty government racked up in less than a decade). You can look at your own jurisdiction and probably see the same thing.

So how about asking our elected officials how they can cut our tax bill by 10% (so the average family spends 34% of their income on taxation, still far too high but profoundly better than 44%). If the Young Dauphin is really interested in "helping the Middle Class" (despite being unable to define it) then he should have some concrete answers to this question, and if any politician has the answer and th will to carry out massive spending and tax cuts, then this is an election winning platform. Who is going to say no to an effective 10% pay raise?

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/04/08/were-undertaxed-governments-in-canada-hardly-starved-for-resources/

We’re undertaxed? Governments in Canada hardly starved for resources
Philip Cross, Special to Financial Post | April 8, 2014 7:00 PM ET

Progressives are pushing the view that Canadians need to be taxed more highly

The notion is circulating in some quarters that maybe Canada’s problem is we don’t pay enough taxes (try not to laugh). Alex Himelfarb, former head of the federal civil service, co-edited a pro-tax tome called “Tax is not a four-letter word.” One of Kathleen Wynne’s first musings as Ontario Premier was the need to have an “adult” conversation about higher taxes to pay for transportation infrastructure. Wynne’s attempt at such a conversation evidently elicited a string of adult words from taxpayers, as she shelved the idea of tax hikes last month.

The CBC’s Sunday Edition was quick to pick up the thread, inviting former senior mandarin Eugene Lang to harang its listeners about how the federal government was forgoing $45-billion of “needed funds” due to tax cuts, supposedly favouring the rich. Sunday Edition continued its pro-tax crusade last month with a segment devoted to how corporate income taxes were too low. Calls to hike taxes invariably include U.S. Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes’s quote that taxes are the “price one pays to live in civilized society,” although taxes were only 13% of GDP when he wrote that.

Related
Terence Corcoran: CBC’s Sunday school tax course was a set up
17 reasons why Canada needs simple tax reform now
.
Long before Holmes, the philosopher John Locke observed that “the reason why men enter into society is the preservation of property.” Therefore, when governments confiscate people’s property, they enter “a state of war with the people.” Today, taxpayers are well on the way to losing that war, with government revenue in Canada gobbling up 37.9% of GDP, with our average above the OECD’s every year since 1970.

Himelfarb decries the “unnatural divorce” between taxes and the public goods and services they buy. Actually, the public seems to have a very good sense of the relationship between the two, perceiving a large and growing gap. The goal of taxpayers is not to reduce the tax burden to some arbitrary number like its long-run average or pre-recession level, but to reduce the burden to the minimum necessary to provide the services the public wants.

Over half of top income earners work over 50 hours a week, compared with less than 20% of everyone else
.
The never-ending revelation of scandalous waste and fraud in government tells the public that they still are not getting good value for their tax dollars. Just in the past couple of years we have witnessed the bottomless money pit that is Ontario’s energy sector, the endless corruption involving Quebec’s construction industry and in many cities across the country, outright fraud by sitting members of the Senate, the F-35 airplane fiasco, and the ongoing charade of public service compensation and pension benefits. On Himelfarb’s watch, the billions of spending on health care recommended by the Romanow Report were swallowed whole by the health care bureaucracy. During his time heading the civil service, pay equity settlements removed the last hinge attaching federal pay to reality, by assuming that all wage gaps between occupational groups reflected one group was being under-paid, never that the other group was being over-paid.

As for the idea that tax cuts have favoured the rich, this is another in a litany of false claims that have been imported wholesale from the polarized ideological debates in the U.S. without relevance to the facts in Canada. In Canada, tax cuts have disproportionately gone to the lower and middle classes. These include the two cuts to the GST (whose progressivity was enhanced from the start by the exemption for food) and the numerous boutique tax cuts targeted to middle class families in recent federal budgets.

Regrettably, there have been no across-the-board tax cuts recently in Canada. As a result, a recent Statistics Canada study by Brian Murphy and Andrew Heisz found that the progressivity of the tax system has increased even as the overall tax burden eased from its record highs. That many regard more progressivity as unquestionably desirable shows an attitude rooted in the 19th century, when the richest people worked the least and the poor the most. Today the reverse is true, as over half of top income earners work over 50 hours a week, compared with less than 20% of everyone else. Why would we want to discourage the most productive and tax-bearing segment of society from working more here rather than in the U.S., or just working less?

Governments in Canada are not being starved for resources. All the federal government is doing is shrinking back to its pre-recession size. No such modest restraint is even being entertained by provincial and municipal governments, who continue to indulge in the spending splurge that began with the 2008 recession, pushing their budget deficits to record levels five years into the recovery. Compassion from progressives never extends to taxpayers. Proponents of the view that more taxes are needed in Canada give substance to Mark Milke’s book, “Tax Me I’m Canadian.”

Philip Cross is a Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute and former Chief Economic Analyst at Statistics Canada.

and from the comments:

Gardiner Westbound •10 hours ago

Economists say 42% is the taxation tipping point. Exceed that confiscatory percentage and taxpayers actively look for ways to evade them. The Fraser Institute reports in 2012 the average Canadian family paid 44.2% in taxes for federal and provincial income taxes, EI, CPP, municipal and school taxes, gasoline, heating fuel, electricity, water and sewer taxes, and sales, sin and eco-taxes - more than for food, clothing and shelter combined!

Canadians are tax poor. Estimates are up to 30% of government revenues are misspent or just plain wasted. Look for tax fraud and the underground economy to grow regardless tax collectors' threats.
 
Thucydides said:
I'm going to put this here because this *should* be an election issue. With the average Canadian family spending 44% of their income on taxation (more than food, transportation or shelter), there is a considerable drag on the productive economy, and of course an inability for families to save, invest or pass on wealth to the next generation.

Of course the real issue is government spending, the Duncan report put it in perspective when it identified the need to cut by 17% simply to balance the budget (this does nothing about the $100 billion new debt the McGuinty government racked up in less than a decade). You can look at your own jurisdiction and probably see the same thing.

So how about asking our elected officials how they can cut our tax bill by 10% (so the average family spends 34% of their income on taxation, still far too high but profoundly better than 44%). If the Young Dauphin is really interested in "helping the Middle Class" (despite being unable to define it) then he should have some concrete answers to this question, and if any politician has the answer and th will to carry out massive spending and tax cuts, then this is an election winning platform. Who is going to say no to an effective 10% pay raise?

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/04/08/were-undertaxed-governments-in-canada-hardly-starved-for-resources/

and from the comments:

I tend to agree.  But I'm not an economist so my view may be naive or ill-infomed.  And I guess it would depend on where you would cut the tax from.  At the federal level you could cut income tax and raise or create consumption taxes to offset.  So I would save 10% on my income tax and pay 1% more on the HST.  So while I have more spending power, it is tempered by the consumption tax and might be encouraged to save as well.

I would not however want to see corporate taxes raised to compensate.
 
The problem is spending. Governments, federal, provincial and local, all spend too much on projects and programmes that are at least one (often more than one) of unnecessary, unproductive or even downright harmful.

But, and it is a HUGE BUT, every harmful, unproductive and unnecessary programme and project has a political "cheering section" and they are damned hard to cut.

It isn't that governments want to be wasteful, not even NDP governments (some of which have been at least as fiscally responsible as their Conservative and Liberal confrères), they want to be productive and to do the right things but it is so very, very difficult to say "No!" to any constituency.

I don't know to what extent we are overtaxed, but I'm happy to concede that it is in the 3 to 5% range. By that I mean that I am 99.99% certain that we could cut enough harmful, unproductive and unnecessary project and programmes at all levels of government to cut taxes by, let's just say, 4% and actually make things better: better for taxpayers and better for governments, too.

 
E.R. Campbell said:
Here is an interesting graphic, which come from EKOS Research via iPolitics.ca:

BlC5hrACQAEmWva.jpg


This is terribly gross. I'll assume "Fiscal issues" refers to taxes and spending, while the "Economy" is an amorphous mass of 'issues' related to people's pocketbooks. But what are "Social issues?" Healthcare? Probably. Law and Order? Maybe that, too? Immigration? I guess.

In any event the big trend is that Canadians care less and less and less about "Social issues" and more about the "Economy" and little at all about either "Fiscal issues" (taxes) and "Ethics & accountability."


But, according to an article in the Globe and Mail, NDP leader Thomas Mulcair is suggesting that an "Ethics & accountability" issue, the Fair Elections Act will, somehow, be more important than pocketbook issues or healthcare ... I don't think so.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
....NDP leader Thomas Mulcair is suggesting that an "Ethics & accountability" issue, the Fair Elections Act will, somehow, be more important than pocketbook issues or healthcare ...
Perhaps he's channelling a recently deposed Quebec politician who believed that "people will vote on issues that I personally want to talk about."


However, he is competing for the left/center vote against someone deemed more popular despite a complete absence of policies or useful personal experience.  :dunno:
 
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