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Election 2015

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My WAG (Wild Assed Guess - it's not even a SWAG (Scientific Wild Ass~) at this time) is the QC is, de facto, irrelevant in the next election. The vote may split something like:

Liberals -                                              15  seats (of 75)
NDP -                                                    10  "
BQ (revived) -                                        20  "
Verts -                                                    5  "
New Left Wing Nationalist Party -          20  "
Conservatives -                                      5  "


Edit: to make it clear I mean that the vote split will produce something like this outcome - a split in seats that benefits no one.
 
An interesting, and very early, poll of voter preferences in Quebec. I suggest that the NDP position in the long term is not all that secure, at least at the levels of the latest Federal election. The next leader will probably shape the results of the 2015 election just by breathing. By that, I mean that the Dippers will be challenged to find someone who will be popular and relevant in Quebec while not alienating the voters in the ROC.

The story is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provision of the Copyright Act.

Without Layton, Harper's Leadership Numbers Jump In Quebec

The Huffington Post Canada Eric Grenier  First Posted: 8/30/11 05:37 AM ET Updated: 8/30/11 05:49 AM ET


On the eve of Jack Layton’s death, the NDP still dominated the province that swung so decisively in its favour on May 2.

But there are signs that the party’s support in Quebec could be at risk.

A CROP poll for La Presse that surveyed 1,000 Quebecers between August 17 and 22 found that the New Democrats still enjoyed 40 per cent support in the province, down insignificantly from the 42.9 per cent of votes cast in Quebec on election night.

The Conservatives stood at 22 per cent, up a more significant — but still modest — five points since May 2.

However, compared to CROP’s last poll in the province carried out in June, it is clear that the NDP’s position in the province could be fragile.

In that poll, the New Democrats stood at a whopping 53 per cent support. Since then, the NDP has dropped 13 points, with support leaking to each of the other four major federal parties. The Conservatives were at 18 per cent in that poll, meaning the Tories have picked up four points in the last two months.

But the most telling shift comes in the leadership numbers. In June, Jack Layton was considered the best person to be Canada’s prime minister by 48 per cent of Quebecers, eclipsing Stephen Harper’s 16 per cent and interim Liberal leader Bob Rae’s five percent.

Though this new poll was taken before Layton’s death, CROP replaced Jack Layton’s name with that of Nycole Turmel, interim leader of the party. This led to Harper topping the list with 21 per cent, a gain of five points. Turmel stood at only 11 per cent, 37 points behind Layton's June numbers, while Rae’s score was bumped to 10 per cent.

The orphaned respondents who thought Layton would make the best PM in June opted instead for “none of the above” (29 per cent) or “don’t know” (23 per cent), an increase of 13 and 10 points respectively. This makes up for almost two-thirds of the drop between Layton’s and Turmel’s numbers. The support of many Quebecers, it appears, may be up for grabs.

Nevertheless, the New Democrats are still in a very strong position. In addition to an 18-point lead over the Tories, the NDP is well ahead of the Bloc Québécois (20 per cent) and the Liberals (12 per cent).

The NDP holds comfortable leads among francophones (41 per cent to the Bloc’s 24 per cent), non-francophones (36 per cent to the Tories’ 31 per cent), in Montreal and outside of the province’s two major centres.

The Liberals are especially troubled, down two points from the election and four points in and around Montreal, the only part of the province that elected Liberal MPs on May 2. Conversely, the Conservatives are doing well in Montreal (up nine points) and especially in and around Quebec City, standing at 46 per cent support – an increase of almost 20 points since the election.

With these numbers, the New Democrats would likely still win about 58 seats in Quebec, down only one seat from their Quebec caucus’s current standing in the House of Commons. The Conservatives, however, would pick up seven new seats, with gains both in Quebec City and on the island of Montreal. The Liberals would be reduced to four seats (including those currently occupied by Denis Coderre, Justin Trudeau, and Stéphane Dion) while the Bloc would hold on to only one: that of Jean-François Fortin, one of the likely candidates for the party’s leadership.

The next leader of the NDP will take over a party leading in the polls in Quebec, but maintaining that support over the next four years will likely be his or her greatest challenge.

Éric Grenier taps The Pulse of federal and regional politics for Huffington Post Canada readers on Tuesdays and Fridays. Grenier is the author of ThreeHundredEight.com, covering Canadian politics, polls and electoral projections.
 
Another contender to fill Jack Layton's shoes:

http://pragmatictory.blogspot.com/2011/08/who-is-ndp-leadership-contender-brian.html

"Who is NDP leadership contender Brian Topp?"

On the day of Jack Layton's funeral, Jane Taber wrote a flattering piece about Brian Topp and his emerging candidacy to become the next permanent leader of the NDP. I first took notice of Mr. Topp's existence in February 2010 after he appeared on the Soloman Show to promote his book "How we almost gave the Tories the boot", where he detailed the attempted coup of December 2008. He was one of the primary architects of the NDP's move to form a coalition with the Liberals to overthrow the newly democratically re-elected Conservatives. After the attempt to seize power failed, Mr Topp suffered from post traumatic stress disorder. Far be it from me to dispute or belittle the diagnosis, I just don't think that someone who has a nervous breakdown after his own party's failed effort to seize power is a strong candidate to one day become Prime Minister. My apologies to anyone who suffered PSTD after a genuinely traumatic event.

Scott Reid seems to think that Topp's candidacy is a sign that Layton's inner circle is trying to keep Thomas Mulcair out of the leadership chair, and Scotty might actually be right on this one. Topp would be a good candidate for interim leader rather than permanent leader. The best possible replacement is Gary Doer, but his candidacy is unlikely unless he wants to leave his diplomatic post in Washington. It is also likely that Doer is considered too far to the right by many of the NDP membership. Peggy Nash should get the most support from the unions given her past as a high profile union leader. If there is indeed a strong movement within the NDP to keep Mulcair out of Stornoway, then perhaps there is hope for them. I would support Topp over Mulcair without a moment's hesitation, but neither of them are in Gary Doer's league.
 
More on the 'merger,' reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/john-ibbitson/talk-all-you-want-but-liberal-and-ndp-pieces-just-wont-fit/article2147672/
Talk all you want – but Liberal and NDP pieces just won't fit

JOHN IBBITSON
OTTAWA— From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

Published Tuesday, Aug. 30, 2011

With both opposition parties leaderless and with millions still mourning the loss of Jack Layton, voices within both the NDP and the Liberals have again raised the question of whether the two parties should merge.

But that merger cannot and will not happen soon, if ever. The laws of political nature won’t allow it.

Ignoring those laws, NDP MP Pat Martin said Tuesday that if no candidate runs for his party’s leadership on a merger platform, he’ll do it himself, while Liberal MP Denis Coderre is urging a “serious discussion” of a union.

Such talk is understandable. We’ve never been in a situation where neither opposition party in the House of Commons has a permanent leader. With no one in either party having the authority to squelch such talk, merger speculation fills the leadership vacuum.

Reporters peppered interim leader Bob Rae with questions about a possible merger during the Liberal caucus retreat Tuesday.

“The debate will happen,” he acknowledged. But “is it a debate about something real? My answer is no.”

Mr. Rae is right. When progressive politicians look at the success of conservatives united under Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party banner and ask: Why not us? they ignore the self-evident answer: You’re not them.

“Dogs of different breeds can make a family,” says John Duffy. But the current consultant and former Liberal strategist points out that the Liberal and the NDP “are different species.”

For a social democratic party of protest to merge with a traditionally centrist party of power, either or both will have to rearrange their political DNA.

Beyond that, pro-merger progressives ignore history.

It took 10 years, three elections, six leaders, several name changes and many failed attempts before reasonable voices in both the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservatives acknowledged that neither party would ever form government on its own. Merger can only happen when both sides can see their future clearly, and that future is bleak.

But the future is not that bleak for the Conservatives’ opponents, at least not yet. The NDP honestly and reasonably believes that it has a shot at winning the next election. The Liberals honestly and reasonably believe that with a new leader, a new party structure and a clear set of policies, they will once again become the obvious governing alternative.

Until both parties no longer have reason to hope, neither has reason to merge.

Beyond that, the two parties will be fighting each other across the country in provincial elections this fall and into next year. Just ask the B.C. Liberals and NDP what they think of the idea of a merger.

“In politics, timing is everything,” observes Robin Sears, the former national director of the NDP who is today a consultant. “And this ain’t the right time.”

That does not mean, he adds, that people of good will in both parties can’t talk to each other about possibly co-operating in the runup to the 2015 election. But now is not the time for those talks. And the time, says Mr. Sears, is probably “later rather than sooner.”

The current lines of force in Canadian politics will shift, because they always do. One day we will be writing about the efforts of a Conservative leader to hold the party together in the face of impending defeat, as a new governing alternative surges in confidence and popularity.

But this is not that day. And attempts at forcibly merging parties that aren’t ready for it won’t bring that day any closer. As Bob Rae said, it’s not that the door is closed. There isn’t a door.


I think Ibbitson is right when he focuses on the political DNA. The old PCs and Reform/Alliance folks were, indeed, different breeds of the same species but the Liberals and NDP are completely different species: wolves and donkeys.

Coderre is impatient; he judges, I'm guessing, that it's his turn - now or never - but that the next leader of the Liberals will lead them to another defeat, as did Dion and Ignatieff, and that he will suffer the same fate as they did. But, I guess he guesses, a coalition might, just, succeed in 2015; I suspect he sees it as his only chance because Trudeau is gaining on him.

The NDP knives are out for all to see. It is Topp and the old Layton gang vs. Mulcaire and the new Québec team – which I beieve he has in his camp. I understand that Topp is on the left of the party – not as far left as e.g. Libbie Davies but far left of Mulcaire and some of the new Québec MPs.

My guess is that Mulcaire does not have much (any?) support outside of the Québec caucus but that no one other than Mulcaire has much support in that caucus. The result: stalemate and, eventually, a backroom deal that will please no one. That's one of the reasons why I am 99.99% certain that the NDP will drop from 50+ to 20- seats in Québec in 2015.

How is this for a prediction for 2015?

Conservatives – 163 seats
Liberals –            60 seats
NDP –                  60 seats
BQ (revived) –      20 seats
New QC Party –  20 seats
Greens –              5 seats
 
Good point raised in this column on the merger mutterings - highlights mine....
.... there was Denis Coderre, the Liberal MP from Montreal. He thought it was an idea worth exploring.

And then Justin Trudeau, another Montreal Liberal, said he wasn’t in favour of a merger but that all ideas should be on the table.

So there were two MPs after all, neither of them the leader, with some lukewarm support for merger talks — and not a single New Democrat giving the idea any support.

But that’s all it took for one of our leading national newspapers to blare at the top of its front page Tuesday: “Calls grow for NDP-Liberal unity.”

Let me assure you, “the calls” to which that headline referred pretty much consisted of Coderre responding to the questions of bored political reporters.

In fact, the Liberal grassroots voted in May to expressly forbid Rae from exploring any merger.

And in any event, it seems unlikely that a New Democrat will win the race to replace Jack Layton with a “Let’s Merge with the Liberals” campaign platform.

(Although Winnipeg NDP MP Pat Martin now says, after he heard Coderre, that he may try to do just that).

And why should they?

The NDP is on the rise, having won more seats and more votes in all four elections since 2004.

Who’s to say they can’t reach the promised land on their own?

Until they hit an electoral ceiling, they’ll rightly continue without anyone’s help, thank you very much.

The Liberals, meanwhile, have gone the opposite way, losing seats and votes in every election since 2004.

They may not have even hit the floor.

Now, if you’re a Liberal, you might think mindless musings about merging with the NDP are harmless flights of fancy.

They’re not.

What they are is evidence that after a decade of decline, there are still some Liberals who haven’t figured out what both New Democrats and Conservatives long ago came to terms with: There is no shortcut to power
.

The New Democrats drew up a plan in 2003 when Jack Layton took over and have been executing against that plan ever since, with historic results.

Stephen Harper also did the hard slogging to patiently lead a movement to unite conservatives in the Reform and Progressive Conservative parties who had hit their respective electoral ceilings and floors.

Because of hard and sometimes difficult work over four elections, the Conservatives now have an unrivalled political machine ....
 
E.R. Campbell said:
How is this for a prediction for 2015?

Conservatives – 163 seats
Liberals –            60 seats
NDP –                  60 seats
BQ (revived) –      20 seats
New QC Party –  20 seats
Greens –              5 seats

For someone who regularly quotes MacMillan on "events" and Wilson on political "weeks"  that's quite the prediction.  ;D

Do you fancy a flutter?

http://betting.ladbrokes.com/en/politics-betting
 
Kirkhill said:
For someone who regularly quotes MacMillan on "events" and Wilson on political "weeks"  that's quite the prediction.  ;D

Do you fancy a flutter?

http://betting.ladbrokes.com/en/politics-betting


Nope!  :D  My confidence level is waaaay below reasonable.

But I am betting, with myself, on both a BQ resurgence and a new 'soft left' Québec nationalist party and a consequential vote split. I see both those parties gaining seats at the expense of the NDP.

 
I don't know ER.....the ADQ was as conservative as all get out, but they nearly beat the provincial liberals....I think there's a good solid core of conservative-ism in QC, they're just "not  comfortable with the skin they're in"...to paraphrase badly..... ;D
 
I agree there is a solid 'conservative' core, I'm just not sure if it is very large - but it is also nationalist, that core is the heir to Duplessis' Union Nationale. Harper has, correctly, I think, rejected that brand of nationalism so those voters also reject the CPC.

The BQ, revived or not, is to the left of the NDP on many issues and I look for a new 'soft left' party to stake out the nationalist ground between the NDP and the Liberals. The Liberals might be the beneficiaries of of such 'conservative nationalist' votes as exist.

 
For now, anyway....
A new poll suggests Jack Layton's untimely death has triggered another orange wave across the country.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey pegs support for Layton's NDP at 33 per cent — tied with the ruling Conservatives and well ahead of the Liberals at 21 per cent.

The NDP has maintained its historic gains in Quebec, which handed the party 59 of 75 seats in the May 2 election.

And it is more competitive in Ontario than at any other time in its history.

Harris-Decima chairman Allan Gregg says the national outpouring of emotion for Layton seems to have translated into increased support for the party he left behind.

But he says it remains to be seen whether the NDP can consolidate these gains in Layton's absence ....
Not going to continue for long.
 
A new poll suggests Jack Layton's untimely death has triggered another orange wave across the country.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey pegs support for Layton's NDP at 33 per cent — tied with the ruling Conservatives and well ahead of the Liberals at 21 per cent.
You'd think some ambitious political strategists would start killing off their party's leadership  :whistle:
 
I cannot see any possible merger of the Liberals and NDP.

Aside from the huge cultural and ideological differences of the two parties, the Liberals would never agree to be a junior partner, which is what they would become under current circumstances.
 
So far as I can tell, the entire merger kerfuffle was triggered by an off the cuff remark by the young Dauphin (oh, wait, aren't all his remarks....), and another by Denis Codere.

On one level, a merger does make sense, bringing the Orange Liberals and perhaps the Greens together in a Socialist Alliance Party would eliminate vote splitting and make Progressives competitive in an election. The undigested bits like Libertarian Greens and Blue Liberals could be ejected to form noncompetitive rump parties or merge with the CPC. The electoral map would be pretty starkly divided between Classical Liberals and Progressives, and paralyzed minority governments would be very rare.

As noted, there are many issues which make the idea impractical for now. The Liberals will have to take another drubbing at the polls before their operatives realize there is no more chance to gain access to the public trough, and the NDP will have to slide back pretty badly (perhaps in a scenario similar to what Edward suggests) before they can settle their differences and strike a merger deal. I still think long term a Socialist Alliance Party will rise from the various bits and pieces of the left wing parties, but how well such a party will do against the rising demographic, political and economic power of New Canada (the West + Ontario) is a very open question.
 
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, is part of the NDP's internal dilemma - nearly 60% of the NDP's parliamentary strength is in Québec but the Québec delegation (which will help elect the new leader) has only 2% of the votes in the leadership race. It has ABM (Anybody But Mulcaire) written all over it:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndps-quebec-wing-urges-delayed-leadership-convention/article2149384/
NDP’s Quebec wing urges delayed leadership convention

DANIEL LEBLANC
OTTAWA— From Thursday's Globe and Mail

Published Wednesday, Aug. 31, 2011

The Quebec caucus dwarfs all others in the NDP, but when it comes to electing a new leader, the province currently has only 2 per cent of the members eligible to vote in next year’s convention.

As a result, the Quebec wing of the NDP is calling for the longest possible period to sell new memberships ahead of the convention to ensure that the party’s new-found strength in the province is reflected in the leadership-selection process. The push puts pressure on the party to postpone its leadership convention, which many felt would occur next January, by at least one or two months.

While 59 of the 103 NDP seats are located in Quebec, the party now has only 1,700 members in the province. By contrast, the party has 85,000 members in the rest of the country, meaning the Quebec contingent could be minuscule at the party convention unless leadership candidates have a long period to attract new members to the party.

“We don’t want a race that excludes Quebec,” Raoul Gebert, the president of the Quebec wing, said in an interview. “That’s my preoccupation; we want a race that occurs in Quebec as much as elsewhere.”

The Quebec wing is calling for a cutoff date on the sale of memberships of 30 days before the leadership convention, which would be shorter than previous cutoff dates. Final decisions on the convention, including the date and the location of the vote, will be made on Sept. 9 by the NDP’s federal council.

Jack Layton, the former leader of the NDP who died in August, said in his last letter to the public that the convention should be held early in the new year, which many party officials interpreted as meaning next January.

However, NDP president Brian Topp, who is thinking of running to replace Mr. Layton, said he agrees with calls for a vote later in the year, such as February or March.

“This campaign should probably look roughly like the last one did – six or seven months – precisely so that there is good time to recruit new members, to hold a successful convention, and then to be able to do some work before the House rises in the summer,” said Mr. Topp, who was born in Quebec, worked in Saskatchewan and now lives in Toronto.

Mr. Gebert expressed concerns over the fact that provincial NDP parties outside of Quebec, whose members will vote for the new federal leader, will be mobilized by fall elections in Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, as well as a recent B.C. leadership race.

Fuelled largely by recent provincial leadership races, there are now 30,000 members in British Columbia, 22,000 in Ontario, 10,000 in Manitoba and 9,000 in Saskatchewan.

“We have to make sure that our demographic weight catches up to the rest of the membership,” Mr. Gebert said, pointing to the absence of a provincial NDP in Quebec. “The party’s roots are taking hold here, but it doesn’t go back to the 1940s as it does in places like Saskatchewan.”

The NDP is well aware of the challenges in Quebec, and has recently ordered thousands of new membership forms in the province and hired staff to process new applications.

Other potential leadership candidates in the NDP caucus include Ontario’s Charlie Angus, Nova Scotia’s Robert Chisholm and Quebec’s Thomas Mulcair, Roméo Saganash and Françoise Boivin.

Ms. Boivin, a former Liberal MP, acknowledged that a speedy vote would risk limiting the party’s growth in places such as Quebec. “It’s obvious that an early date can make it harder for some candidates, although not impossible, in terms of having time to attract supporters,” she said.

Mr. Chisholm added: “I'm hoping for a leadership contest that is as inclusive as possible, bringing in different perspectives and ideas. I prefer a timeline that ensures that will occur and will respect the decision of council.”


So the saintly NDP is not above backroom political manoeuvring after all. Quelle surprise! And Saint Jack set this ABM movement in notion in the now nearly sacred death bed letter wherein he called for an early leadership convention ~ one that punishes Québec for giving him the keys to Stornoway. Class act, Jack.
 
As a dyed in the wool Conservative (since 1966, anyway) I really hope the Grits are remain as stupid as they have been since about 2005. If they do stay stupid then they will ignore this excellent advice, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, proffered by Antonia Maioni of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/grits-be-bold-or-get-lost/article2149382/
Grits: Be bold, or get lost

ANTONIA MAIONI

From Thursday's Globe and Mail
Published Thursday, Sep. 01, 2011

Along with other commentators, McGill University political scientist Antonia Maioni was invited to address the Liberal caucus meetings this week in Ottawa. Here are her five tips for the Liberal Party of Canada to revive, survive and live to see another political day.

Move away from the middle of the road: For years, Liberals have fed off the notion of moderation and centrism, of being neither here nor there. But the middle of the road can be a dangerous place – especially if you don’t know where you’re going. The Liberal Party’s challenge is to reimagine the political spectrum as a multidimensional space, not just a flat line where they struggle to hold an imaginary middle position.

Take ownership of policy issues: The Liberal Party should remember that its greatest strength relates to the ability to use political power to pursue an agenda and address policy priorities. There’s a myriad of challenges to Canada’s economy and society. Take health care: As the top-of-mind issue for Canadians and the country’s largest public expenditure, Liberals would do well to inject some rationality and enlightenment into the conversation.

And although few elections are won or lost over foreign policy, this is an area where the Liberals used to matter but have failed to recapture their place. The voice of liberalism has to be able to communicate relevant and salient positions in order to contribute meaningfully to these debates.

Rebuild the Quebec relationship: The brutal fact is that the Liberal Party of Canada no longer matters in Quebec. The party has lost its place in the fabric of Quebec society, has lost touch with Quebeckers, and still doesn’t understand why that’s happened. The Liberal leadership has failed to articulate a clear message to Quebec nationalists, and hasn’t been able to explain what makes Quebec tick to the rest of Canada.

The first challenge is to get a grip on the map and move its efforts off the West Island of Montreal and into the rest of the province. The second is to bury the old federalist-sovereigntist dichotomy that was used to such political advantage in the past but that no longer resonates in modern Quebec.

Get over the white knight syndrome: Liberals seem to believe that a single visionary can rekindle the party and recapture voter imagination. Not only is this the stuff of romance, it’s also pure fiction.
Liberal leaders who made a difference had three things in common: a deep commitment to liberal values and the determination to express them; an astute understanding of the political climate and how to affect it playing the long game; and the ability to forge relevant policy positions on issues that mattered to individual Canadians and to Canada as a whole.

Tune out the merger talk: Like everything else in politics, the essential questions of a potential merger between the Liberals and the NDP would be: Who profits and who pays? It’s a risky business at the best of times, but right now, without a leader and without a position of strength, there’s precious little in it for the Liberal Party.

Not only does merger talk make the Liberals look pretty desperate, it also saps the party’s already wilted energies and distorts the public debate about why Canada needs a Liberal party. In other words, be bold or get out of the way.

This advice apples equally well to Conservatives and Dippers, too. The Tories appear to have overcome the “white knight syndrome,” but we shall see when, eventually, Harper retires. Policy does matter and Prof. Maioni has hit two good areas for all parties:

1. The eventual, necessary reform of health care; and

2. Foreign (and defence) policy.

I can see three distinct, separate areas for each party on both issues but, in my opinion, none of the three has a coherent, sensible plan in either – or most other areas. A combination of retail politics and image politics has overtaken all three Canadian national parties.

 
 
Here, CAW chief Lewenza urges NDP to consider merger with Liberals, is the only sane reason for a Liberal/NDP merger: special, vested interests do not have access to the levers of power so long as the Conservatives form the government. Those special interests have no interest in the parties involved, only in whether or not they have "friends in court" in Ottawa.

Some (not all, by any means) Liberal and NDP members are clients of some of those special interests - especially of big labour. (But others, in all parties, are also clients of other special interests like "big pharma.")

I'm still with Ibbittson: the political DNA is too different and it will be like breeding lions and lambs; they might lie down together - but nothing more is possible.

Ken Lewenza is right to want a merger. Neither the Liberals nor the NDP can gain power any time soon and his constituency, Big Labour, is, therefore, shut out of the corridors of power. A Liberal/NDP coalition might have a chance at power - a chance is better than no chance, so a merger suits him.

In a way it also suits old, blue blooded Tories like me ~ the result of the union* would be a monster that would soon consume itself, destroying both old parties and sending the progressive left in Canada out into the political wilderness for a generation.


_________
* Inter species unions only work in folk songs - Lawenza wants a "talking fish" but he's fishing for a Kraken.
 
I know Ken Lewenza personally and he is only out for one thing.

Himself.
 
The gloves are coming off in the NDP leadership race according to this article, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-firebrand-toots-his-own-horn/article2152741/
NDP firebrand toots his own horn

DANIEL LEBLANC
OTTAWA— From Saturday's Globe and Mail

Saturday, Sep. 03, 2011

Thomas Mulcair is flexing his political muscles ahead of a formal entry in the race to lead the NDP, taking a great deal of credit for the party’s historical surge in Quebec four months ago while stating that Jack Layton’s influence helped him tone down his abrasive style.

Speaking at length for the first time since Mr. Layton’s funerals a week ago, Mr. Mulcair emphasized his high-level experience in provincial government and touted a vast network of still-undeclared support in the party. However, he did threaten to abandon the leadership race if the party did not extend the campaign into the spring.

“If and when the time comes, I will have a lot of my caucus colleagues on the stage with me,” the NDP House Leader and MP said of an eventual leadership bid.

In particular, the former Quebec environment minister said he offers the best chance of re-election to the NDP’s 59 MPs in his home province, which are essential to eventually forming a government.

“I’ve got great, great support among the Quebec caucus. I’m thankful for that, but not totally surprised because they know what role I played in helping them all get elected,” Mr. Mulcair said. “They want to make sure they come back so that we can form a government, because that’s our No. 1 purpose.”

Mr. Mulcair said his success in Quebec was part of a close collaboration with Mr. Layton, whose long-time partner, Olivia Chow, is also an NDP MP and could be a power broker in the leadership race.

“Jack named me parliamentary House Leader [last May], and it was quite a compliment for the work that we had done,” Mr. Mulcair said. “Don’t forget that when I signed on with Jack, the communality of purpose was sealed at a supper in his old hometown in Hudson with his wife, Olivia, and my wife, Catherine.”

There are currently no official candidates in the race, although a number of NDP MPs are mulling their options. In addition, NDP president Brian Topp, who is well known in the union movement and for his work in provincial NDP governments, is also exploring a candidacy.

Mr. Mulcair insisted the party should not opt for a four-month race, because there would be insufficient time to sell memberships in Quebec. Despite the NDP’s record success in the province in the last federal election, only 3 per cent of eligible voters for the party leadership reside there.

“I’ve never shied away from a fight. I don’t even shy away from a fight if somebody wants to tie one arm behind my back,” Mr. Mulcair said. But I’m not going to go into that same fight if I’m completely hobbled.”

He sharply criticized backroom lobbying by unnamed party officials in favour of a convention next January, saying it wouldn’t leave enough time for candidates to build support in Quebec and become better known across Canada.

Instead, Mr. Mulcair is calling for a seven- to eight-month campaign, which would mean a vote in April or May, when the NDP federal council sets the convention rules on Friday.

“The important thing is that Quebeckers opted in to Canada for the first time in a generation, and the vehicle for that opt-in is the progressive vision of the NDP,” Mr. Mulcair said. “The last thing we can afford to do is to send a signal that now that has been done, the [leadership selection] process ... won’t respect that result.”

Mr. Mulcair did not dispute the fact he rubbed some people the wrong way in his four years in Ottawa, but he said he was given a clear mandate to make inroads in Quebec. After quitting the Charest government, Mr. Mulcair won a seat in the Montreal riding of Outremont in a 2007 by-election. The following year, he became the first NDP candidate to win a seat in Quebec in a general election.

“The fact of the matter is that if I hadn’t pushed hard and gotten things changed, we would still have never elected anybody in a general election in Quebec,” he said. “That type of drive and determination has gotten us where we are, and it’s the type of drive and determination that I will take to the job [of NDP leader].”

He added he learned much about bridge building and consensus politics from Mr. Layton, all the while keeping an edge to fight back against his political opponents, especially the Conservatives.

“Five years of working with Jack made me realize there were other ways of going about problem solving. I learned a lot from him, and I had a lot to learn,” Mr. Mulcair said.

Born in Ottawa and raised north of Montreal, Mr. Mulcair, 56, has two adult sons. His wife of 35 years is a psychologist in Montreal.


I guess it will be obligatory, for a year or so, to give Saint Jack credit for everything, even making the tide come in ... but Mulcair can, fairly safely, snipe at Topp and the NDP officials who want a January leadership race that, procedurally, would be dominated by the party establishment that represents pretty much every vested, special interest except Québec.

My guess is that Mulcair wins this one and the leadership convention is in the spring.
 
I think Muclair is willing to play full contact hocket without helmets, and if he really has a following in the Quebec caucus - which is by no means clear - he could splinter the party before Jack is barely in the cold, cold ground. This may be the lone, remaining political situation where Quebec still has real influence.
 
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