Election 2015

[George Wallace]

Sometimes I think JT is a seventies throwback minus the bellbottoms and Fu Manchu moustache.

.....and the charisma.  He definitely does not have the flair of the elder.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I find Mr Trudeau comes across as an orange Liberal ... he may even be better fit for the NDP but ended up in the family party because of his name.  On the other hand, Mr Mulcair is a red to blue NDPer, and I have read a few commentaries about some of the party's base not being happy about it.  It is like the two parties stole each other’s leader.

I think that's exactly right and I suspect it's intentional; I believe that Gerald Butts is following the Kathleen Wynne playbook from the last Ontario general election:

    First: Demonize and then isolate Harper on the right, as was done to Hudak, so that right leaning voters are not inclined to go there; and

    Then: Outflank Mulcair on the left, as was done to Horwath, and "come up the middle," especially in the suburbs around Toronto.

The problem, it seems to me, is that it's not working ~ at least it's not working yet, and/or it 's not working well enough. In a column in MacLean's Paul Wells suggests, based on the new ABACUS Data that M Trudeau is paralleling Stéphane Dion's performance levels in 2008. Although that was better than Ignatieff's in 2011, it is unlikely to lift him out of third place if the CPC and NDP split most of the vote and seats.

 

[Remius]

Nanos poll, likely the last one before labour day weekend.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/nanos-on-the-numbers/major-parties-still-tied-month-into-campaign-nanos-poll-1.2542268

Pretty much where all the paries were when this all started.

 

[Edward Campbell]

If I'm reading this column by the Globe and Mail's Jeffrey Simpson correctly then the anti-Harper factions, the Laurentian elites, if you like, are worried that the "loss" of the Duffy trial for a few weeks, until after the election, will seriously benefit Prime Minister Harper and the CPC.

I expect to see a rough copy of Mr Simpson's column, albeit by someone else, every week or so in various national media outlets. I think the LPC and NDP need the Duffy trial to distract voters from fiscal and economic issues, especially given a reported $28Billion gap in M Mulcair's promises and M Trudeau's $60 Billion dollar deficit promise.

I was wrong ...

I said a version of this would reappear every week or so; make that every couple of days: as with this, from Lawrence Martin in the Globe and Mail.

It's the same story ~ Duffy is the issue, folks, not economics ~ being spun by the same gang now that the Duffy trial is in recess until after the election.

 

[a_majoor]

I find Mr Trudeau comes across as an orange Liberal ... he may even be better fit for the NDP but ended up in the family party because of his name.  On the other hand, Mr Mulcair is a red to blue NDPer, and I have read a few commentaries about some of the party's base not being happy about it.  It is like the two parties stole each other’s leader.

For the win. This should have been apparent to the media for a long time (the one time I saw the Young Dauphin, he gave an uninspiring speech that was essentially a stringing together of leftist tropes). Once you redact the "foot in mouth" unscripted moments, I see his advisors and speech writers have certainly pushed the leftist tropes all along.

Perhaps this "overlooking" of the obvious is more a reflection of the values of the "Laurentian Elites" than anything else.

 

[Kirkhill]

I was wrong ...

I said a version of this would reappear every week or so; make that every couple of days: as with this, from Lawrence Martin in the Globe and Mail.

It's the same story ~ Duffy is the issue, folks, not economics ~ being spun by the same gang now that the Duffy trial is in recess until after the election.

I have a very clear recollection of a documentary on the coverage of the 2004 election which Harper lost over some abortion related comments made by some of his members which (to my mind) he fielded effectively.  In the documentary, standing beside Harper's campaign bus, Simpson, Martin and some other reporter were recorded effectively saying that Harper had fielded the ball and how were they going to spin it to make news out of it.

I can't seem to lay my hands on that documentary but ever since I have had zero respect for both of those two gentlemen.  They are proselytizers.

 

[Brad Sallows]

>Duffy is the issue, folks, not economics

And with a helpful tug in the direction of Watergate, the knob is right away turned up to 11.

 

[a_majoor]

Too bad people are not looking at the "reporters" jumping up and down screaming "pay attention! pay attention!" but are looking at the economy.

My own pocketbook is much more important to me than Duffy's, and at least he isn't promising to reach into my wallet, unlike the Young Dauphin (or indirectly Mr Mulcair, or even to a certain extent the Prime Minister....)

 

[Edward Campbell]

Too bad people are not looking at the "reporters" jumping up and down screaming "pay attention! pay attention!" but are looking at the economy.

My own pocketbook is much more important to me than Duffy's, and at least he isn't promising to reach into my wallet, unlike the Young Dauphin (or indirectly Mr Mulcair, or even to a certain extent the Prime Minister....)

Don't forget that Prime Minister Harper/the Conservative Party has promised billions of dollars in infrastructure renewal (generally a good thing), public transit (also, generally, defensible) and other less productive "goodies."

 

[Edward Campbell]

I have frequently said that M Trudeau's road to 24 Sussex Drive, even to Stornoway, runs through Quebec where he must defeat M Mulcair's NDP.

A new story, from the Montreal Gazette via Canada.com suggests that he's struggling, even in Montreal, proper.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

I have frequently said that M Trudeau's road to 24 Sussex Drive, even to Stornoway, runs through Quebec where he must defeat M Mulcair's NDP.

A new story, from the Montreal Gazette via Canada.com suggests that he's struggling, even in Montreal, proper.

The Liberal Party of Canada just can't seem to come to terms with the fact that the Canada that elected Jean Chrétien is not the same Canada today.  They keep looking for a white knight to lead them to victory but it isn't going to happen until they get their policy house in order.

 

[Bird_Gunner45]

I have frequently said that M Trudeau's road to 24 Sussex Drive, even to Stornoway, runs through Quebec where he must defeat M Mulcair's NDP.

A new story, from the Montreal Gazette via Canada.com suggests that he's struggling, even in Montreal, proper.

I always find it interesting that no one questions the vast support of the NDP and Liberals in Quebec or Ontario (including 1 x BQ seperatist member of parliament joining the NDP) int he same manner that they question the support of the conservatives in the west. Based on the overwhelming boost that Quebec has given the NDP (without a quebec sweep last election there is little to no chance the NDP is close to an election victory) one has to wonder what sort of promises that the NDP will need to make to keep that support.

To be honest, I can see a NDP majority government having a repeat of the PC split in the early 1990s. At this time they seem split between their quebec MPs, the traditional left of centre base, and the leadership pulling them into the centre. Tom Mulclair appears to have the ability to keep it together for the time being, but for how long? How many of the left leaning MPs will stay on course if the budget is balanced at the expense of social programs? How many quebec MPs stay if Quebec isnt given priority?

 

[Remius]

To be honest, I can see a NDP majority government having a repeat of the PC split in the early 1990s. At this time they seem split between their quebec MPs, the traditional left of centre base, and the leadership pulling them into the centre. Tom Mulclair appears to have the ability to keep it together for the time being, but for how long? How many of the left leaning MPs will stay on course if the budget is balanced at the expense of social programs? How many quebec MPs stay if Quebec isnt given priority?

They likely will but probably after the election and if they win, maybe not until they are subsequently defeated.  They have never been this close to the top, so much so that they can smell it.  They'll keep it together because they want that power at all costs.  So while there are rumblings we'll likely see a party split on doctrinal lines happen after the election one way or the other.

 

[Remius]

Another intersting article from Eric Grenier and how important a role BC might play in the upcoming election.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-bc-sep1-1.3211266

I'm not sure I agree but given when the polls close and how tight the race might be he may be on to something.  A lot of other factors though between then and now.  Will be intersting to se if BC becomes the king maker.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I have frequently said that M Trudeau's road to 24 Sussex Drive, even to Stornoway, runs through Quebec where he must defeat M Mulcair's NDP.

A new story, from the Montreal Gazette via Canada.com suggests that he's struggling, even in Montreal, proper.

It would definitely be a schadenfreude moment, for a large number of people, if he lost his own riding.

 

[kratz]

[quote author=RoyalDrew]
The Liberal Party of Canada just can't seem to come to terms with the fact that the Canada that elected Jean Chrétien is not the same Canada today.  They keep looking for a white knight to lead them to victory but it isn't going to happen until they get their policy house in order.
[/quote]

I agree. My vote is wide open, but M. Trudeau is not winning me over. The CPC could save it's attack ad budget at this point.

 

[jollyjacktar]

If anyone's interested in trying it out, CBC has a vote compass on it's website to try out.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/vote-compass-2015-canada-election-1.3204489

 

[ballz]

If anyone's interested in trying it out, CBC has a vote compass on it's website to try out.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/vote-compass-2015-canada-election-1.3204489

I always enjoy them, I think I particularly confused that one as it only has the 5 main parties, doesn't let you put a value on how important each question is to you, and seems to just go by left - right spectrum.

This one has been going around for a while and I believe it has all registered parties on it. https://canada.isidewith.com/political-quiz

 

[a_majoor]

I recall the last CBC "election compass" which somehow would point to Liberal regardless of how you answered. No bias here, no siree....

 

[cavalryman]

I recall the last CBC "election compass" which somehow would point to Liberal regardless of how you answered. No bias here, no siree....

This one put me to the right of the CPC on most issues so I'd say it's not as biased as last time :nod: