Election 2015

[Harrigan]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from Maclean’s is Premier Wynne explaining to Paul Wells, in her own words, how she plans to help defeat Prime Minister Harper in Ontario:

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/kathleen-wynne-time-to-kick-harper-out/

I'm not sure how well (or poorly) this can work. I'll repeat my suspicion that Premier Wynne is strong where Justin Trudeau (or Thomas Mulcair) is already strong; she may help M Trudeau's candidate defeat a NDP candidate or she may just split the vote and let a Conservative "come up the middle." I think Premier Wynne is less popular in the "blue belt" of suburbs around Toronto which is where Prime Minister Harper needs to win ...



   

          ... her presence on the Liberal campaign team might even help Prime Minister Harper.

I suspect the Liberals would be overjoyed if the federal result in October looked like the map you show.  All those 905-belt areas (Mississauga, Brampton, S York Region etc) look Red by my eyes, and not even the "skin-of-the-teeth just-squeaked-in" pink colour.

Of course, that was then.  It is possible that support for Wynne may have dropped since the election in those areas.

Harrigan

 

[Edward Campbell]

David Akin says, in his blog that "here we go! The game is on as of Sunday. Prime Minister Stephen Harper hits Rideau Hall Sunday morning at 10 ET..  The fixed election date — which Prime Minister Stephen Harper has ignored before — is October 19th. We’ll see tomorrow if he keeps to his word and commits to that day  – which is 78 days or 11 weeks away from this Sunday ... In any event, every political journalist in the country has some prediction at this point how this will all turn out. (Just ask one!)  So, here’s where I stand, based on my completely untested and likely incorrect Predictionator model : If the vote were held today, I’d bet a nickel we’d come back with a Conservative minority government, and a strengthened New Democrat Official Opposition and a strengthened Liberal Party that, for the first time since 2000, won more seats and found more voters than the previous election."

And here is his latest prediction ...

   

          ... which appears to show that the CPC continues to gain and the Liberals continue to weaken.

Is the momentum shifting at just the right moment for the CPC?
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As always, remember ...

   

          ... and we have eleven "long times" to go until 19 Oct, and ...

         

              ... there can be a lot of "events" in eleven weeks which can derail campaigns, too: Trudeau's campaign, Mulcair's campaign and Harper's campaign.

David Akin has a new Predictinator, two weeks into the campaign:

   

          ... the Liberals have eaten into both the CPC's and NDP's leads over them.

In his post Mr Akin says:

    "We’re two weeks in to the 42nd general election. We’ve had one debate. We’ve seen the Conservatives launch a full-on leaders’ tour which is costing the three or four media organizations travelling with Harper about $13,000 a week —
      all of the privilege of asking him a question every day or two but being prohibited from speaking to any Conservative who shows up at a rally — and we’ve seen the Duffy trial ramp back up with testimony from Stephen Harper’s former chief of staff.

      Some national polls show the Liberals well back, one shows the Conservatives well back, but most show a three-way tie.

      The latest Predictionator factors in all that stuff and is spitting out the following “if we had an election today” seat count: A Conservative minority government."

The Leger Poll, the "one [that] shows the Conservatives well back" is the one to which Altair referred, above.

But, I repeat: polls don't really count until after Labour Day when, traditionally, Canadians start to notice, again.

 

[The Bread Guy]

This from the Green machine:More in the attached backgrounder.

Elizabeth May, Leader of the Green Party of Canada and MP (Saanich – Gulf Islands), today unveiled the Green Party’s plan to reverse damaging cuts to services and support for our veterans. She made the announcement in Nanaimo, and was joined by Afghanistan war veteran Capt. Trevor Greene and his family ....

Now, the Conservatives offer up a veteran plank for their platform (also attached if link doesn't work)....

Today Minister of Veterans Affairs, Erin O’Toole, announced that a re-elected Harper Government will improve the extended Earnings Loss Benefit for Canadian Veterans with service-related injuries or disabilities.

Minister O’Toole announced that a re-elected Harper Government will enable Veterans receiving the extended Earnings Loss Benefit (ELB) to earn up to $10,000 in employment income without affecting their benefit payments. This policy improvement will further enhance the New Veterans Charter first introduced by a Liberal government, and will help injured or disabled Veterans.

“Enabling Veterans to earn up to $10,000 in employment income without reducing their benefits will make it easier for them to pursue job opportunities if they wish to do so,” Mr. O’Toole explained. “Veterans have unique life experiences that can enrich many work environments and I believe we should do all we can to support them.”

The announcement builds on the Conservative government’s strong record of supporting Canada’s Veterans, including making important improvements to the New Veterans Charter, creating a national mental health clinic network, funding world class programs for service dogs and providing additional funding for Veterans benefits, programs, and services.

“Our party recognizes the tremendous service and sacrifice that Canadian Veterans have made for our country,” O’Toole said who served in the Royal Canadian Air Force as a Sea King Helicopter navigator. “We owe Veterans our deep gratitude and strong financial and medical support. Just as our government ended the decade of darkness in the Canadian Military by arming, backing and honouring our men and women of the Canadian Armed Forces, we are also committed to supporting Canada’s Veterans and their families.”

.... as well as announcing plans to expand the Junior Canadian Rangers.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Agreed.  The poverty rate is declining and has been for some time, just like this rate:

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-630-x/11-630-x2015001-eng.htm

I suppose which rate one would ignore/exaggerate would depend on which voters one is targeting.  Progressive parties tend to exaggerate poverty, conservative parties tend to exaggerate crime.  All of them seem to be successful.

Harrigan

I know, and it's frustrating, for me, because I also know that both groups are blowing smoke up our asses for their own, partisan advantage.

For example, I believe that the CPC should be spending more on "selling" this sort of data ...

         

              ... and less on "Just Not Ready" and this.

But the political pros are certain that negative, attack ads work better then informative truth, so ...

 

[observor 69]

And one more poll:

Le NPD pourrait gagner 129 sièges sur 338

La projection des résultats du sondage Léger de samedi place Thomas Mulcair à la tête d’un gouvernement NPD minoritaire avec 129 députés, contre 103 sièges aux conservateurs et 102 aux libéraux.

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2015/08/16/le-npd-pourrait-gagner-129-sieges-sur-338

 

[Brad Sallows]

>Given the ridiculously generous tax treatment provided political donations and the fact that a large portion of electoral expenditures by the parties are reimbursed by the Crown, I believe the argument is that it's almost public money.

My suspicion as well, which means he was just pounding the table.  Public money ceases to be public money at the point of expenditure, whether its a claim on an entitlement, an expense, or for goods and services rendered.

 

[dapaterson]

But, I repeat: polls don't really count until after Labour Day when, traditionally, Canadians start to notice, again.

Actually, polls don't count until October 19th; everything else is noise.

 

[Jed]

Which is worse? 

Winnipeg accounts for 52% of the population of the province, and has 57% of the seats (though I suspect the population is closer to 57% as well if one adds the suburbs that are included in the "urban" Manitoba ridings).  In Saskatchewan, Regina and Saskatoon together account for 37% of the population, and 43% of the seats, but that includes the one remaining "rurban" riding - Regina-Qu'Appelle, so they really have 5.5 seats, which is more or less where they should be.

And at the moment, a strong case can be said that Saskatoon and Regina voters have "taken the hindmost" for a long time - they have voted majority NDP for a while and have zero MP's as the rural portion of the "rurban" ridings have outweighed the urban portions.  (Wascana is an outlier as that seems to be a personal vote for Goodale rather than a Party vote - Liberal vote in SK is putrid).

NDP have only themselves to blame though - it was their idea to gerrymander those 8 ridings in the first place!

An interesting backgrounder:  http://www.punditsguide.ca/2013/02/how-to-spot-a-gerrymander-in-canadas-independent-redistricting-process/

Harrigan

Putting the emphasis on the large centres of a province tends to strip the surrounding smaller cities and towns of their population and their vitality. It also tends to over populate the larger cities bringing on big city problems.

'How are you going to keep them down on the farm after they've seen Paris?'

 

[suffolkowner]

Well I still think we're likely to get a conservative minority government. Maybe a NDP one? But since Mulcair is a closet conservative that might not be too bad. I continue to be unimpressed by Trudeau and am disgusted by Premier Wynne's behaviour.

 

[jmt18325]

Well I still think we're likely to get a conservative minority government. Maybe a NDP one? But since Mulcair is a closet conservative that might not be too bad. I continue to be unimpressed by Trudeau and am disgusted by Premier Wynne's behaviour.

I'm convinced that Mulcair would focus on the navy at the expense of the other forces (we'd probably get about 40 generation 4.5 jets - to make sure we'd never have enough to deploy again, using them only for home defence) but the navy and peacekeeping army forces would be well funded.

 

[ModlrMike]

I'm convinced that Mulcair would focus on the navy at the expense of the other forces (we'd probably get about 40 generation 4.5 jets - to make sure we'd never have enough to deploy again, using them only for home defence) but the navy and peacekeeping army forces would be well funded.

I don't know how you come to that conclusion. If you read the party positions on defence here: Defence Platforms, you'll see that only the Conservatives and Greens have clearly articulated plans. The other two parties, not so much.

 

[jmt18325]

I don't know how you come to that conclusion. If you read the party positions on defence here: Defence Platforms, you'll see that only the Conservatives and Greens have clearly articulated plans. The other two parties, not so much.

They've voiced their support for the navy, and promised to make it their defence priority.  At this point, they don't really need to say much more than that, as the Conservatives have done very little in 10 years for the RCN.

 

[jmt18325]

I don't know how you come to that conclusion. If you read the party positions on defence here: Defence Platforms, you'll see that only the Conservatives and Greens have clearly articulated plans. The other two parties, not so much.

From the link you provided: 

An NDP government would get military procurement back on track. We would implement an open and transparent bidding process to replace our aging CF-18 fleet, and we would ensure that Canada’s shipbuilding strategy serves the needs of our military.

We have already committed to enhancing our search and rescue capabilities to meet international standards in response times, and our capabilities in the North need to be enhanced.

It seems that the Navy and SAR would be their priority.

 

[PuckChaser]

Because for the last 10 years we've been fighting a ground war on Afghanistan. Now that it's over, the CA will get a backseat to the RCN and RCAF retooling. Welcome to Canadian procurement cycles. We should have been planning new ships 20 years ago, that's not just a Conservative problem. The Peacekeeping "army force" you talk about is the Army. We don't have enough people to have a specialized force that just does peacekeeping. That's like saying the NDP will have the Navy focus on counter-piracy, you'd be pretty pissed as I'm sure that's just 5% of your job.

 

[jmt18325]

The Peacekeeping "army force" you talk about is the Army.

Of course it is...with totally different equipment priorities. 

 

[PuckChaser]

Yeah, we can cancel the C7 upgrade, mothball the tanks, and issue rape whistles to everyone so that when the shooting starts, we have the ability to call for help from a real army.

 

[Harrigan]

Putting the emphasis on the large centres of a province tends to strip the surrounding smaller cities and towns of their population and their vitality. It also tends to over populate the larger cities bringing on big city problems.

'How are you going to keep them down on the farm after they've seen Paris?'

I am not quite sure where you are going with that.  Are you suggesting that citizens that live in cities should be under-represented in Parliament so that small towns and rural areas can keep their "vitality"???  (however dubious that link)

Harrigan

 

[YZT580]

I am not quite sure where you are going with that.  Are you suggesting that citizens that live in cities should be under-represented in Parliament so that small towns and rural areas can keep their "vitality"???  (however dubious that link)

Harrigan

Not a bad idea for some issues.  Compare the red in the map of Ontario to the location of windfarms and you will discover there are no assets in Kathy's country.  Regardless of their opposition having rep by pop results in rural being forced to accept whatever the city folks desire: often to their detriment.  Perhaps a system of 2 to 1 votes on issues concerning rural would help, don't know. 

 

[Harrigan]

Not a bad idea for some issues.  Compare the red in the map of Ontario to the location of windfarms and you will discover there are no assets in Kathy's country.  Regardless of their opposition having rep by pop results in rural being forced to accept whatever the city folks desire: often to their detriment.  Perhaps a system of 2 to 1 votes on issues concerning rural would help, don't know.

Rural areas are not hard done by.  Look at the population in the rural ridings compared to urban ridings.  They have always been overrepresented at the federal level, as have many other "special interest" areas (PEI, the North, etc).  Over time this shifts with redistribution (as it should), because the voting strength has to follow the population trends - hence the increase in suburban ridings with the latest redistribution.

There are already way too many "outliers" which make a mockery of the one-person-one-vote axiom - a voter in PEI, for example, has 4 X the voting power as a voter in Calgary, or in Toronto, or Brampton. 

Harrigan

 

[Edward Campbell]

Both Brian Gable and David Parkins, the Globe and Mail's editorial cartoonists, think that the Duffy Trial is impacting on the CPC and NDP campaigns, although in opposite ways:

                                                      Brian Gable                                                                                  David Parkins: (Source:http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/editorial-cartoons-for-august-2015/article25744115/)