Election 2015

[Rocky Mountains]

>fascinating but dysfunctional parents;

That's unfair to Pierre.  All accounts I have read indicate Pierre was a pretty good father.  A political writer should know what he is writing about, and present evidence when he challenges commonly held views.

Maggie more than makes up for Pierre's quality parenting.  People I've known with Maggie's affliction tend to keep everyone uneasy.  Dysfunctional to the nth degree.

 

[McG]

Justin Trudeau calls for economic growth "from the heart" and not "top-down" ... what does that mean?

 

[Halifax Tar]

Justin Trudeau calls for economic growth "from the heart" and not "top-down" ... what does that mean?

It's defined in the article...

 

[McG]

He talks about investing in the middle class but, again, where is the detail?

 

[Halifax Tar]

He talks about investing in the middle class but, again, where is the detail?

I hazard a guess that's about as far as he has the capacity to go.  It's really just a catch phrase, the equivalent of holding up a kitten while everyone goes "awwwwww".

 

[a_majoor]

He talks about investing in the middle class but, again, where is the detail?

My suggestion for the Young Dauphin (and for Stephen Harper or Tom Mulcaire as well, for that matter) is if you want to "invest" in the middle class, reduce their burden of government taxes and fees from 40-44% of a middle class family of four's income to 30-34% of their income.

There is plenty of fat to cut (without even touching a cent of the @$60 billion/year + in federal subsidies to individuals), and an effective 10% pay raise would be quite an "investment".

Just saying...

 

[Harrigan]

I am surprised that election topics have suddenly gone silent, though maybe we shouldn't be.  While I think there is still much to come out about the "topic which must not be mentioned", I find it hard to believe that there is/will be no impact on the federal election.

Harrigan

 

[Good2Golf]

Which topic is that?

Maybe people are doing pretty much what the prognosticators said, enjoying the rest of their summer then start to kind of care some time after Labour Day? :dunno:

G2G

 

[The Bread Guy]

Maybe people are doing pretty much what the prognosticators said, enjoying the rest of their summer then start to kind of care some time after Labour Day? :dunno:

I think part of it is that, for sure - still +9 weeks to election day.

While I think there is still much to come out about the "topic which must not be mentioned" ....

If you're talking about the military or veterans, it will still be interesting to see how much the parties throw out there - and there's still a fair bit of time to do so.

That said, remember  what those way smarter than me have to say about public support for the CF being (to use the metric) a kilometre wide and a centimetre deep, so it may not come up soon.

 

[Good2Golf]

I think part of it is that, for sure - still +9 weeks to election day.
If you're talking about the military or veterans, it will still be interesting to see how much the parties throw out there - and there's still a fair bit of time to do so.

That said, remember  what those way smarter than me have to say about public support for the CF being (to use the metric) a kilometre parsec wide and a centimetre micron deep, so it may not come up soon.

TFTFY... 

 

[dimsum]

That said, remember  what those way smarter than me have to say about public support for the CF being (to use the metric) a kilometre wide and a centimetre deep, so it may not come up soon.

...unless another hot spot, or something really bad within the CAF, happens within the next few months. 

 

[The Bread Guy]

TFTFY... 

Thanks for correcting my starry-eyed optimism  ;D

 

[Colin Parkinson]

TFTFY... 

or can be summarized to "Return to peacekeeping"  :

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Conservative "ground war" is going strong in the ethnic suburbs, especially around Vancouver and Toronto. Defence Minister Jason Kenney is wallpapering the Internet with this:

... and this

... and more of this:

And Veteran's Affairs Minister Erin O'Toole is out there, too:

... as is Labour Minister Kellie Leitch

Popular MPs like Ministers Kenney and Leitch are being sent all across Canada to shore up Conservative support in small towns and suburbs.

My sense is that CPC will concede some of the inner cities, especially Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal, (say 30-50 ridings) to the NDP and Liberals, but they plan to win the election in rural Canada, in small towns small cities, and in the suburbs around the big cities (the other 285-310 ridings of which they need 170 to win a majority.

 

[Blackadder1916]

I am surprised that election topics have suddenly gone silent, though maybe we shouldn't be.  While I think there is still much to come out about the "topic which must not be mentioned", I find it hard to believe that there is/will be no impact on the federal election.

Harrigan

Are you talking about Mike Duffy's trial?  If so . . .  so far . . . yawn

 

[Edward Campbell]

In this article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Ottawa Citizen, Prof Emmett Macfarlane (Waterloo) compares the Liberal and NDP campaigns for the progressive voter and concludes that both are very, very conservative in their promises, "operating in a box designed by the Conservatives, one where government revenues are constrained and, as a result of a desire among all leaders to be seen as good fiscal managers, spending is therefore constrained as well:"

http://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/emmett-macfarlane-whos-more-progressive-the-liberals-or-the-ndp

http://cfl.uploads.mrx.ca/ott/images/general/2014/07/crop_20562474919.jpg[/imng]
[SIZE=19px]Who's more progressive, the Liberals or the NDP?[/SIZE]

EMMETT MACFARLANE

Published on: August 13, 2015

[SIZE=15px][font=courier]A significant segment of the voting public is looking for an alternative to the Conservative government yet holds no allegiance to a particular party. Although the NDP have held a lead the past few months, recent polls show a legitimate three-way race. So who should the “progressive” voter support?
[/font][/SIZE]
Some progressives view defeating Stephen Harper as more important than who defeats him or what ideas they have. This sort of thinking is less than ideal.

Admittedly, the question of who offers the progressive alternative is in the eye of the beholder, but it is worth examining the differences between existing Liberal and NDP proposals, particularly in light of claims from some corners that the NDP has moved to the centre or that Justin Trudeau is campaigning “to the left” of Tom Mulcair. While there are undoubtedly more policy announcements coming from both parties, there are more than enough platform pieces to start thinking about.

On tax policy, the NDP promise higher corporate taxes and lower small business taxes. By contrast, the Liberals will lower income taxes for earners in the middle income tax bracket (in effect, anyone making $44,701-$200,000 pays lower taxes), while creating a new, higher tax bracket for those earning over $200,000. While neither proposal will create much in the way of new government revenue, the Liberal plan makes an already progressive income tax system more so, and the symbolism of raising taxes on the upper class is relatively bold. One point to the Liberals.

On child care, the Liberals propose to combine and enlarge several tax benefits and credits advocated by the Conservatives. The result would be bigger cheques to families with children. This might not sound like a big deal, but the Liberals would also means-test the benefit, meaning lower income families get a lot more money. According to a Library of Parliament assessment, the Liberal plan would lift 315,000 children out of poverty – that is some serious redistribution. By contrast, the NDP promise a $15/day child care system, apparently modelled on the Quebec program. In one respect the universality of the program might make it less progressive than some might think (there is some evidence the well-off benefit disproportionately from Quebec’s system – and why should we be subsidizing child care for rich people anyway?), but the appeal among progressives for universal, low-cost day care, particularly in light of the costs of private care, is indisputable. Moreover, the NDP plan, in my view, is more likely to ensure women have one less disincentive to enter or return to the workforce. If only it were means-tested. Call this one a draw.

On democratic reform (which is not just for progressives, mind you), the Liberals have announced an impressive list of ideas, ranging from open data, increased powers for the information commissioner and the parliamentary budget officer, a prime minister’s question period, and limits on party spending between elections, among many others. The NDP have not announced as comprehensive a list, but are pledging to implement a mixed-member proportional electoral system (in contrast to the Liberal’s vague pledge of post-election consultations on a new system). Deeply troubling, however, is Mulcair’s unconstitutional stance on refusing to ever appoint senators – not a responsible position, even if you don’t like the Senate. This point goes to the Liberals.

On top of these differences are a lot of important similarities. Both parties articulate a need for a nation-to-nation approach to the state’s relationship with Canada’s indigenous peoples, promise to invest in renewable energy and other “green jobs,” pledge to scrap Conservative decisions like income splitting, and emphasize rhetoric focusing on “the middle class.” Some similarities aren’t progressive at all (both parties support the regressive supply management of dairy).

It is hardly clear that the Liberals are campaigning to the NDP’s left, though their proposals so far are generally as progressive. What is remarkable, however, is the relatively moderate nature of both parties. There is no plan to significantly increase government revenues – the tax increases proposed by both parties are at least partially offset by tax cuts. Both leaders steadfastly avoid talking about carbon taxes (Mulcair talks about “polluter pay” as if there would be no cost to consumers, and Trudeau has decided to let provinces deal with carbon pricing) or – gasp! – raising the GST. Aside from significant child care spending, neither party has yet to announce the creation of a major new program (more details on the NDP promise to expand pharmacare coverage are needed).

The parties are operating in a box designed by the Conservatives, one where government revenues are constrained and, as a result of a desire among all leaders to be seen as good fiscal managers, spending is therefore constrained as well. The parties may be looking, even this late in the game, for something to excite uncommitted progressives. And there is a lot of campaign left, so it is more likely than not that the differences between the Liberals and NDP will grow, and there might be a few surprises in store.

What is already clear is that it would be a mistake for those looking for an alternative to the Conservatives to think any option will do when there is plenty of evidence that they have a real choice to make.

[i]Emmett Macfarlane is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Waterloo. He has given non-partisan advice to the Liberal party on the constitutionality of its Senate proposals.[/i][/quote]


For those who still question Prime Minister Harper's GST/HST cuts; they were designed for one purpose: [u]to make it very hard for any government, CPC, LPC or NDP, to raise new revenue for Trudeau[i]esque[/i] (1970s) social programne spending[/u].

 

[Edward Campbell]

In the "figures don't lie, but liars can figure" department, this graphic ...

         

          Source: National Post based on Statistics Canada data

              ... should be popping up in CPC propaganda campaign material to suggest that Messsrs Mulcair and Trudeau are fabricating poverty problems when poverty is at its lowest level (if you believe the LICO
                    is a valid measure of poverty) since they started collecting the data.

 

[Edward Campbell]

And here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail is an analysis of the "looooooong campaign" that suggests that Prime Minister Harper is looking at this (2015) election and a potential next election is he only gets a minority:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/the-long-campaign-is-the-strategy/article25959325/

The long campaign is the strategy

DAVID MCLAUGHLIN
Special to The Globe and Mail

Published Thursday, Aug. 13, 2015

iDavid McLaughlin is a former Conservative Party chief of staff at the federal and provincial levels.

In a marathon, do you measure success in time or distance?

When that marathon is an election campaign that is more than 80 days long, time loses all meaning. It is going the distance that counts.

But in business, time is money. And money is at the core of any party’s campaign blueprint.

Put the two together – time and distance – and the blueprint reveals itself.

The very length of this election call is the strategy. The long election is the single most important factor guiding the parties’ overall approach to coping with this unusual test of political endurance.

For Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, the best-financed party, this is a campaign of attrition. It has three features:

First, wear down opponents with a constant barrage of negative advertising that eventually penetrates voters’ consciousness. Second, spread leaders’ debates over the long Writ period to avoid any defining moment that could spark a change dynamic. Third, use their superior voter ID programs in individual ridings to identify, persuade and “get out to vote” on advance poll and election days. Time allows all this to happen on their terms.

For Thomas Mulcair’s New Democrats, the best-positioned party for growth, this is a campaign of momentum. Driving that must be a desire for change amongst voters. It becomes a single message of change in advertising, big crowds at campaign rallies, and positive reviews of their leader’s performance in debates, at events, and with the media.

To do so successfully, they need to fend off the “‘too risky” attacks from the Conservatives and grow the plausibility factor of Mr. Mulcair as a viable and increasingly acceptable alternative to Mr. Harper as prime minister. He needs the lengthy campaign to show this. He needs time to show he can go the distance.

For Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, the best-second-choice party, this is a campaign of relevance. They need to show they still matter as a viable option in a Stephen Harper referendum campaign where the first question in people’s minds is “Should we keep Harper?” If the answer is no, then the Liberals need to be positioned to compete for the same “change” vote as Mr. Mulcair.

The Liberal path to victory runs through Mr. Mulcair, not Mr. Harper. Their campaign will show enthusiasm for Mr. Trudeau at events, attacks on Mr. Mulcair as not the right kind of change, and promotion of key policy planks to attract a viable coalition of voters to begin to win seats where he can. The Liberal slogan of “hope and hard work” is really the reverse: hard work to stay in the game and hope the other guy makes a mistake in a long campaign. Time is Mr. Trudeau’s only friend.

But there is a subtext at work here in the decision to have a long campaign. It is about party realignment and the next election, not this one.

The lengthy campaign will drain the resources of only two parties: the Liberals and New Democrats. If a minority Parliament results on October 19th, Canadians will go to the polls sometime again in the next two years. Neither of those parties will be financially ready for an imminent election. Assuming Mr. Harper wins even a minority, it has all the prospect of proving a stable one. The appetite amongst his opponents for an early election will be severely dampened with empty bank accounts.

The NDP would be confirmed as the real alternative to the Conservatives as a governing party from the centre-left, while the Liberals moderate centrist position in the political spectrum would be confirmed as an increasingly fringe one. It would amount to an historic role reversal for those two parties and the ascendancy of polarization as the dominant narrative in Canadian party politics.

Election 42 is no sprint; it is an endurance race. That suits Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives just fine. For he and his party are not just playing for this election but the one to come.

 

[CougarKing]

:facepalm: Justin Trudeau...the gift that keeps on giving.

CBC

Trudeau pledge to grow economy 'from the heart outwards' greeted with mockery
CBC – Thu, 13 Aug, 2015

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau became the butt of a few internet jokes after saying he wants to grow Canada's economy "from the heart outwards" during a campaign event in Regina on Wednesday.
"We're proposing a strong and real plan, one that invests in the middle class, so we can grow the economy, not from the top down, the way Mr. Harper wants to, but from the heart outwards. That's what Canada has always done well," Trudeau said.
The remarks prompted many to ask just what growing an economy "from the heart outwards" actually means.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[Edward Campbell]

The candidate issue (and who decides on who gets to run) has come up, again, to bite M Trudeau in the bum according to this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Ottawa Citizen:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Exec+federal+Liberal+party+resigns+over+nomination+snub/11285162/story.html

Federal Liberal party executive resigns over Richmond nomination snub of Wendy Yuan

GEORDON OMAND, THE CANADIAN PRESS  08.11.2015

A longtime federal Liberal party executive has resigned over what he calls an “unfathomable” move to block a two-time former candidate from running in B.C.

Mike Hillman stepped down as membership chairman for B.C. after the party decision, announced late last week, to block Wendy Yuan from running as a Liberal in the new riding of Steveston-Richmond East.

Wendy Yuan ran for the Liberals in Vancouver in the past two federal elections, but came up short both times against the NDP.
ARLEN REDEKOP / PROVINCE


Hillman was Yuan’s campaign manager.

He said he can’t understand how the party could treat someone with such disregard, especially after Yuan’s work to register thousands of new party members.

“You don’t keep somebody on a string, working hard to build a team and build membership, when in the end you’re going to walk away from them,” he said in an interview Wednesday. “That’s not the right way to do it.”

Yuan signed up close to 3,000 new members — a significant portion of the roughly 4,000 registered in the riding, said Hillman.

He called Yuan “absolutely solid” and referred to her contributions to the party as “tremendous.”

Hillman said he didn’t know why Yuan was disqualified as a candidate.

Lawyer and former federal politician Joe Peschisolido will be running in the riding for the Liberals. He was nominated by acclamation as the Liberal candidate at a meeting on Tuesday.

“As membership chair there is a responsibility on my part to protect and promote the interests of membership and members’ rights,” Hillman said.

Yuan ran for the Liberals in Vancouver in the past two federal elections, but came up short both times against the NDP.

Hillman has been involved with the Liberals for nearly five decades and has served in various leadership capacities, including two terms as the party’s national vice-president for English.

He is still a party member and will remain involved in Liberal election campaigns in other ridings.

The president of the party’s B.C. chapter said the Liberals value Hillman’s service and contributions to the democratic process.

“British Columbia has an exceptional team of candidates running to bring real change in Ottawa,” said Braeden Caley in an email.

“I have full trust in the rigorous green-light process that has included all aspiring candidates.”

In a related story, Ms Yuan alleges that former Liberal MP (and minister) Raymond Chan blocked her nomination. She does not say why this happened.

    "The Liberal Party of Canada shrugged off allegations raised Monday by a Richmond candidate hopeful who claimed her nomination was intentionally blocked by a former high-profile Liberal MP from B.C. who once served in cabinet.

      Wendy Yuan told a large crowd of supporters gathered at the Sheraton Vancouver Airport in Richmond that she was shocked on learning last Friday that the party would not be green-lighting her nomination for Steveston-Richmond East.

      Yuan — who has twice been green-lit by the party for election runs that ultimately proved unsuccessful — claimed this was because the process had been interfered with, an allegation she said was supported by a sworn affidavit that was
      sent to her by another party member.

      “I have received a sworn affidavit from a party member which clearly spells out interference with the party green-light process by one of our leader’s advisers, and his name is Raymond Chan,” Yuan told the sign-waving crowd.

      “That affidavit has it that Mr. Chan stated that he would personally ensure that I would not achieve green light and therefore be disqualified as a candidate for the Liberal Party of Canada.”

      Chan, who was first elected to Ottawa as the Richmond MP in 1993, served in cabinet under both Paul Martin and Jean Chrétien. He lost the 2008 election to the Conservatives’ Alice Wong."

Steveston-Richmond East is a classic ethnic suburb of the sort that, currently, seems to lean towards the Conservatives but used to be a Liberal stronghold. It is heavily East Asian. The candidates include:

Kenny Chui for the CPC;

The aforementioned Mr Peschisolido for the LPC; and

Scott Stewart for the NDP.