Drones, the Air Littoral, and the Looming Irrelevance of the USAF

[dimsum]

So not being quite up on drone tech, how vulnerable are they to being detected by things like radar etc?

Depends on their size, how far off the ground they fly, and what they’re made of.

The irrelevance of Naval Aviation?

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2024/08/31/ending_the_dominance_of_naval_aviation_in_the_us_navy_1055398.html

First, I think that person has an axe to grind against Naval Aviation. But that’s neither here nor there.

Second, carriers (and their air wings) aren’t just used to strike land-based things. It is a main goal to project power, but a carrier is also a huge floating base to do whatever - humanitarian assistance being one. Or just the “soft power” of a Carrier Strike Group off your coast. The AEW aircraft also extends the radar bubble of the task force, and while the big threat is the sub threat, having a bunch of Absalons isn’t going to change that calculus.

Also, each Tomahawk isn’t going to land back at the arsenal ship if the mission gets “turned off” for any number of reasons.

Upon further thought, that article reminds me of the “why have manned interceptors/fighters when BOMARC missiles can do the same thing?” Argument in the 50s/60s.

 

[Kirkhill]

Depends on their size, how far off the ground they fly, and what they’re made of.


First, I think that person has an axe to grind against Naval Aviation. But that’s neither here nor there.

No doubt re the axe grinding.

Second, carriers (and their air wings) aren’t just used to strike land-based things. It is a main goal to project power, but a carrier is also a huge floating base to do whatever - humanitarian assistance being one. Or just the “soft power” of a Carrier Strike Group off your coast. The AEW aircraft also extends the radar bubble of the task force, and while the big threat is the sub threat, having a bunch of Absalons isn’t going to change that calculus.

Point.

Also, each Tomahawk isn’t going to land back at the arsenal ship if the mission gets “turned off” for any number of reasons.

Upon further thought, that article reminds me of the “why have manned interceptors/fighters when BOMARC missiles can do the same thing?” Argument in the 50s/60s.

I'll agree that it is the same argument. Having said that I will note that technology is weighting the scales differently now. Maybe not terminally but certainly differently.

 

[Kirkhill]

Navy testing autonomous flight capabilities with aerial targets

Naval Air Systems Command has launched a new effort to integrate an artificial intelligence-enabled pilot with one of its aerial targets, laying the foundation for the service’s plans to introduce autonomous flight capabilities into its aircraft fleet.

defensescoop.com

https://ir.kratosdefense.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kratos-and-shield-ai-conduct-ai-piloted-flights-kratos-tactical

Kratos Valkyrie Kratos Mako Kratos BQM-177

Kratos Valkyre Loyal Wingman evolved from the Kratos Mako which evolved from the Kratos BQM-177 target.
The Valkyrie and Mako are both armed and the BQM-177 can carry stores.

All of them are using Shield AI.

The navy has decided to develop the AI on the cheapest of the platforms - the target system which is already well proven and exists in the inventory in large numbers.

Shield AI - Building The World’s Best AI Pilot

AI pilots will revolutionize battlefields and commercial aviation at a scale greater than the self-driving movement reshaping our highways.

shield.ai

 

[Kirkhill]

Further to Shield's AI Hivemind (party political puff piece but still interesting)

Shield AI's Hivemind Demonstrates Collaborative Autonomy In Firejet Drones Flight Test

Branded Content: Fast, agile drones replicating unmanned wingmen fly together autonomously in key step towards future air combat.

www.twz.com

....

US Coast Guard Orders V-BAT Drone From Shield AI

California drone developer Shield AI has received a contract to deliver its V-BAT unmanned aerial system to the US Coast Guard.

thedefensepost.com

Shield AI Raises Another $200 Million In Funding To Scale V-BAT Autonomous Piloting Software - Avionics International

Shield AI on Tuesday said it has raised another $200 million in venture capital for scaling and deploying the company’s new autonomous piloting software aboard the company’s V-BAT unmanned aircraft […]

www.aviationtoday.com

Shield AI unveils V-Bat Teams drone swarm tech, with eye to Replicator

Shield AI aims to double the size of its V-Bat drone teaming capabilities each year, from four now to eight next year and beyond.

www.defensenews.com

 

[Kirkhill]

Also, each Tomahawk isn’t going to land back at the arsenal ship if the mission gets “turned off” for any number of reasons.

Saw that V-Bat article and it got me to thinking about tail-sitters landing on their butts and went looking for other examples. I came up with these.

Tomahawk is a vertically launched jet propelled intelligent munition. How long before Shield AI software is incorporated? How long before a ramjet is incorporated? Vertical recovery and landing?

My next prediction sees Frankie Zapata's Hoverboard merged with the V-Bat to supply a short hop transport for one person.

Better solution than this

The V-Bat would leave both hands free - and be easier to dismount.

 

[Kirkhill]

Interesting pieces about:

EpiSci converting its AI Swarmware from aircraft to boats in weeks - aim to use same software in multiple domains
Shield AI working with a pair of Kratos Firejets
US Army's 101st Abn Div Multi-Functional Reconnaissance Company
(Side bar on HAMAS Resistance philosophy)

Testing plug-and-play AI pilots: Weapons and Warfare

Meet the innovative a company taking AI pilots out of the cockpit and putting them into the captain’s chair.

san.com

 

[Kirkhill]

Boost for Ukraine air defences as UK pledges £162m light multirole missile systems package

The first batch of the 650 LMM missiles is expected to be delivered by the end of this year.

www.forcesnews.com

The LMM is in the same general category as the 70mm rockets, like Stinger, APKWS, CRV7 and Hydra 70. It can be fired from helicopters, boats, ships, vehicles and fixed platforms and used against all of the same.

 

[Kirkhill]

Small Units Need Protection from Drones—But What Capabilities Should a Light, Maneuverable Counter-UAS Platform Include? - Modern War Institute

Imagine you are an infantry platoon leader, moving with your soldiers in a tactical formation toward your objective. Suddenly, indirect fire is raining down on your position. You have a […]

mwi.westpoint.edu

Are small units better with a C-RAM capability rather than a C-UAS capability?

A C-RAM capability would counter rockets, artillery and mortar projectiles and, I believe concurrently, FPV "drones". But does that unit need to be able to kill UAS systems?

My sense is that there is a working assumption that a mortar team might fly a drone over the enemy position to spot fall of shot and that the effective counter would be for the targeted unit to take out the spotter flying overhead.

But what happens if the spotter, a Mavic sized target, is flying 5 miles away and observing the target through a long lens. Will the targeted unit be able to see the spotter, or even be aware of it? Would it have a system on hand that could reach out that far to knock the spotter out the sky?

 

[Kirkhill]

Anduril's new family

Anduril unveils new cruise-missile like weapon, plus voice-controlled drones - Breaking Defense

The defense tech startup disclosed a new “Barracuda” weapon, and put on a demo for reporters where drone wingmen were controlled using voice commands.

breakingdefense.com

WASHINGTON — Arguing that many of today’s options don’t do the trick, Anduril worked to make up something quick: a new family of air-breathing, autonomous air vehicles, akin to cruise missiles or one-way drones, which the company calls “Barracuda.”

Unveiled today, the weapon comes in three configurations — the Barracuda-100, -250 and -500 — with each increasing in size and payload. According to the company, the largest configuration can offer a range of greater than 500 nautical miles and over 100 pounds of payload. The two smaller configurations have lower ranges and offer a payload of 35 pounds. The company says each of the three variants can fly at speeds of up to 500 knots.

“The problem that we are seeking to solve here … is America and our allies and partners do not have enough weapons, full stop. And we are not capable of producing the volume of weapons that we’re going to need to establish deterrence against a peer competitor,” Anduril Chief Strategy Officer Chris Brose said in a briefing with reporters ahead of the announcement.

While the Barracuda may be new to the public, Anduril Vice President for Air Dominance & Strike Diem Salmon revealed the weapon has been selected for the early stage of a joint Air Force and Defense Innovation Unit effort to develop a low-cost air vehicle.

Additionally, Salmon noted that the Barracuda can come in a -M configuration — denoting the qualities of a cruise missile or munition — and that modular features mean that the system is capable of “a lot of different things.” Working together in either manned-unmanned or purely unmanned teaming, Brose said Barracudas could offer different capabilities like decoys, target detection and strike.

 

[Kirkhill]

Aussie startup's small box turns drones into swarm commanders - Breaking Defense

The drone will decide if, say, an abandoned car near a road appears to be a threat or not. If it decides it's not then it wouldn't "bother the operator. The operator is doing something important," co-founder Matthew Buffa said. "I'm (the drone) not going to go on the radio and tell him about...

breakingdefense.com

The drone will decide if, say, an abandoned car near a road appears to be a threat or not. If it decides it's not then it wouldn't "bother the operator. The operator is doing something important," co-founder Matthew Buffa said. "I'm (the drone) not going to go on the radio and tell him about this random car I've seen,​

Don't worry boss. I've got this one!

 

[Kirkhill]

Navy testing autonomous flight capabilities with aerial targets

Naval Air Systems Command has launched a new effort to integrate an artificial intelligence-enabled pilot with one of its aerial targets, laying the foundation for the service’s plans to introduce autonomous flight capabilities into its aircraft fleet.

defensescoop.com

https://ir.kratosdefense.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kratos-and-shield-ai-conduct-ai-piloted-flights-kratos-tactical

View attachment 87743 View attachment 87744 View attachment 87745
Kratos Valkyrie Kratos Mako Kratos BQM-177

Kratos Valkyre Loyal Wingman evolved from the Kratos Mako which evolved from the Kratos BQM-177 target.
The Valkyrie and Mako are both armed and the BQM-177 can carry stores.

All of them are using Shield AI.

The navy has decided to develop the AI on the cheapest of the platforms - the target system which is already well proven and exists in the inventory in large numbers.

Shield AI - Building The World’s Best AI Pilot

AI pilots will revolutionize battlefields and commercial aviation at a scale greater than the self-driving movement reshaping our highways.

shield.ai

Further to ....

Feb 2023 - Kratos BQM-177 $902,000 each complete with ancillaries and launchers.

Kratos to Supply US Navy With Additional BQM-177A Target Drones

The US Navy has awarded Kratos Defense & Solutions a $49.6-million contract for the service’s BQM-177A Subsonic Aerial Target Lot 4 program.

thedefensepost.com

The US Navy has awarded Kratos Defense & Solutions a $49.6-million contract for the service’s BQM-177A Subsonic Aerial Target Lot 4 program.

The BQM-177A is a recoverable, high-subsonic target drone that imitates anti-cruise missile threats. It is used for fleet training and shipboard air defense tests.

Under the agreement, Kratos will deliver another 55 BQM-177A drones, mission kits, related flight consumables, and technical data to the navy.

Work on the contract will be conducted in Fort Walton Beach, Florida, and Sacramento, California.

The US Navy will allocate $227.6 million if the options for Lots 5 to 7 are exercised.

March 2024 - Kratos BQM-177 $823,000 each complete with ancillaries and launchers.

Kratos Receives $57.6m contract for 70 BQM-177A aerial targets - Airforce Technology

The BQM-177A is an aerial target drone used to test anti-air capabilities, and widely utilised by the US military.

www.airforce-technology.com

US-based military aerial target provider Kratos Defense & Security Solutions has received a $57.6m modification to a previously awarded firm-fixed-price contract from the US Department of Defense (DoD) to exercise options to procure full rate production Lot Five of the BQM-177A programme.

Under the terms of the deal, Kratos will provide for the production and delivery of 70 BQM-177A surface launched aerial targets and 70 rocket assisting takeoff attachment kits, as well as associated technical and administrative data in support of weapons system test, and evaluation, and fleet training for the US Navy.

August 2024 - USN contracts with Shield AI to add autonomy to Kratos BQM-177

Shield AI, US Navy to Demo AI Pilot With BQM-177A Subsonic Aerial Target

Shield AI and the US Navy have partnered to test AI-enabled autonomy software with the Kratos BQM-177A subsonic aerial target.

thedefensepost.com

The navy noted that the decision to leverage the Kratos drone was due to its lower unit cost and cost per flight hour, allowing progress at an “accelerated pace.”

...

The Air Force still wants run ways....

https://ir.kratosdefense.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kratos-valkyrie-demonstrates-affordable-runway-flexibility

...

Seems to me that the loss of the RATO launch assist and the addition of landing gear is going to reduce range and payload and demand larger engines with more fuel and more cost - not to mention the cost of finding and maintaining airfields.

But without landing gear and pilots what is the difference between a Valkyrie UAV and a PrSM artillery missile?

My guess is that the USMC is quite content to look at the RATO launched Valkyrie in conjunction with the VTOL F35B, creating a support force that is independent of both runways and big deck carriers.

The USN may be looking at the Valkyrie/UTAP-22/BQM-177 as exceptionally bright and low cost Tomahawk and Harpoon replacements.

The USAF is struggling emotionally with the loss of its pilots. Can it afford to lose its runways as well?