Drones, the Air Littoral, and the Looming Irrelevance of the USAF

[Kirkhill]

And the role of AI -

AI in defense turns potential into reality

www.nextgov.com

Human operators must be held accountable for AI’s use in conflicts, Air Force secretary says

The Pentagon needs “to find a way to hold people accountable” for what artificial intelligence technologies do in future conflicts, according to Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall.

www.nextgov.com

 

[Kirkhill]

If this



And this

How long until this makes a reappearance?

 

[Kirkhill]

Gen Z gamers help Army race towards robotic future force - Breaking Defense

With the Robotic Combat Vehicle Light set to enter service in 2028, young soldiers are providing vital feedback on prototypes, tactics and user-friendly interfaces.

breakingdefense.com

“The operator at NTC [National Training Center] said, ‘you know what, I don’t need this kind of steering wheel that looks like an F1 steering wheel. [Just] give me a mouse and a keyboard, because I have like 29 hours of War Thunder every day, and I can absolutely control multiple robots and their payloads from a mouse and a keyboard.’”

“A lot of our young people are digital natives and are very comfortable employing this type of technology,”

At Fort Moore, Buzzard noted, “we run the small UAS [Unmanned Aerial System] master-trainer course, and we’ve got to go through and train folks on a bunch of legal requirements” — for example, safe operation in domestic airspace — “but we know a young person can grab a UAS and fly it within an hour.”

Robust, easy-to-use controls — like those popularized for gamers and hobbyists — have become a major focus for the Army, Buzzard said. That requires settling on standardized handled devices and software interfaces across a whole future fleet of unmanned systems. That will include multiple types of aerial drones and ground robots, equipped with a wide range of possible payloads, from machine guns and Javelin missiles, to long-range sensors or medical supplies, and operating alongside humans as part of multiple different units, from heavy armored brigades to light infantry.

The foundation of that hoped-for future commonality is a set of software standards known as GCIA, intended to apply across the Army’s entire future ground force of manned and unmanned vehicles. (It’s a nested acronym for GCS (Ground Combat System) Common Infrastructure Architecture). GCIA compliance is mandatory not only for companies working on RCV but for those competing to build the Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle, the replacement for the M2 Bradley troop carrier.

So if you can drive and fight a Mission Master you can drive and fight a Bradley.

 

[Kirkhill]

Navy says future drone wingmen need to come in under $15 million price point - Breaking Defense

“I want something that's going to fly for a couple hundred hours. The last hour it's either a target or a weapon. ... But I'm not going to sustain them for 30 years,” said Rear Adm. Stephen Tedford, the Navy’s program executive for unmanned systems and weapons.

breakingdefense.com

“I want something that's going to fly for a couple hundred hours. The last hour it's either a target or a weapon. ... But I'm not going to sustain them for 30 years,” ​

Driving down towards the Valkyrie/Fury/Gambit price-point.

 

[Kirkhill]

Another player in the field of drones but this one is all at sea.

With Navy exercise, unmanned surface vessel firm Saronic sees 'next step' - Breaking Defense

“We are in active conversations with many of the stakeholders who are relevant to things like Replicator and we’re excited to collaborate with the government when the time is right,” Saronic exec Rob Lehman told Breaking Defense.

breakingdefense.com

both the company’s 6-foot Spyglass and 14-foot Cutlass vessels took part in the US Navy’s Integrated Battle Problem (IBP) 24.1 exercise, the first time the Cutlass sailed in a live exercise. For both systems, the company said it was able to quickly integrate payloads provided by the Navy, including an Anduril-made loitering munition. The firm also said it demonstrated swarming capabilities for Spyglass, operating on high seas in both day and night conditions.

The firm was able to integrate the payloads onto Cutlass “in a matter of hours, not days or weeks,” Lehman said, a feat he chalked up to the design having an open architecture built in from conception — part of the company’s plan to be able to provide for multiple mission areas.

Saronic, founded in September 2022, has raised over $70 million from defense-focused VC firms. It currently boasts 85 employees and 100,000 square feet of manufacturing and testing facilities. The latter is key to what Lehman indicated is a differentiator between his firm and other startups: an early focus on how to manufacture at scale.

“Unless you start off with scale in mind, and have your manufacturing team weigh in on those engineering [early design] decisions, you’re going to falter when you go from developing and delivering” small numbers to scale, he said. “So you have to be intentional about it on the front end to make sure you’re not getting bitten on the back end and incurring huge costs and huge delays.”

That design strategy, he said, included considering how to make sure platforms can be assembled by “relatively low-end manufacturing manpower,” as opposed to relying on highly-skilled, hard-to-find workers that are in heavy demand in the defense industry.

So far, the company has produced 20 Spyglass models and a prototype of Cutlass. But if given orders, Lehman said, right now it could crank out 10 of each of its three different sizes per month — including the in-development 24-foot Corsair.

“If you wait to have a contract in hand to deliver hundreds of vessels, you’re already too late.

....

Anduril Altius Open Architecture LAM

Anduril

Transforming US & allied military capabilities with advanced technology.

www.anduril.com

 

[dimsum]

Navy says future drone wingmen need to come in under $15 million price point - Breaking Defense

“I want something that's going to fly for a couple hundred hours. The last hour it's either a target or a weapon. ... But I'm not going to sustain them for 30 years,” said Rear Adm. Stephen Tedford, the Navy’s program executive for unmanned systems and weapons.

breakingdefense.com

Driving down towards the Valkyrie/Fury/Gambit price-point.

LM et al:

 

[Kirkhill]

The implication is that we are not only not in the game but that the game is speeding by us.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/04/12/ukraines_freedom_forge_150791.html

Buying FPVs from Western Allies is not an option, given the dynamic nature of the Ukrainian battlefield. Unless you are on the ground constantly iterating, the Strategic Industries Minister told us, it is impossible to keep pace with the battlefield innovation cycle, which is so fast that software becomes out of date in a matter of months. Indeed, we’ve seen media reports of U.S. drones failing to operate successfully in Ukraine because they don’t account for battlefield realities. In other words, the laboratory for the future of warfare has advantages only for those who commit to staying in the laboratory.

The Ukrainian war effort involves both public and private sectors. The Joint Stock Company, which oversees the privatization of Ukraine’s 114 state-owned defense enterprises, has taken on the development of sophisticated long-range drones and missiles that can target Russian forces in the Black Sea, Crimea, and over the border into Russia.

The Neptune cruise missile that destroyed the Moskva cruiser, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, will see production increase tenfold in 2024. A Neptune strike is credited with reopening the Black Sea shipping corridor, allowing for the export of Ukrainian agriculture and restoring its economy. In the coming year, the Neptune will increase its range up to 1000 kilometers, opening the way for targets deep inside Russia.

Ukraine’s private sector is converting into a hub for low-cost drones. One company just outside of Kyiv transformed its civilian helicopter business into a drone factory in less than a year. The long-range Morak attack drone has a range of 800-1000 kilometers and costs $40,000. How is that possible? Other than the software used for targeting and countering Russian jamming, it relies on cheap commercial components you can buy from Amazon (which they do). The workforce is made up of engineers and designers, some of whom are former actors and footballers eager to help the war effort.

In the last few months, Ukrainian forces carried out over 200 missions with the Morak targeting Russian factories and airfields, including one such strike this week. A year ago, the Morak didn’t exist. Its owner told us it will produce hundreds a month this year.

The battlefield on the front lines in Eastern Ukraine has been dominated by tactical drones called First Person View or FPV drones. As Ukraine runs low on 20th-century howitzer guns firing 155-millimeter rounds, FPVs are filling the battle space. Russian kamikaze FPVs target Ukrainian units, armored personnel carriers, and other light infantry vehicles. Ukraine drone units are now doing the same. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense plans to buy 1.2 million FPVs this year. It will rely entirely on scores of startups to meet the mandate.

One Ukrainian FPV manufacturer we visited operates out of an underground cellar in a Kyiv commercial retail district. Their prior facility was hit by a Russian missile. At $350 per copy and a range of 20 kilometers that can carry a one-to-six kilogram payload, the FPV is capable of knocking out Russian armored personnel carriers. The drones are made with a combination of 3D printed parts and commercial components, which are obtained from websites like GETFPV.com. The owner is a former cyber engineer who was a Bass fisher enthusiast before the war. He is under contract with the Ukrainian military to deliver 4000 drones this year, but he is making thousands more, given the military’s need.

....

The FPV target hit rate is often less than 50%, and the longer-range drone attrition rate is less than 20%.

"Only 50%" success rate for the $350 FPVs taking out APCs at 20 km. $700 a kill. Half the price of a dumb 155mm shell.

"Only 20%" success rate for the $40,000 Morak hitting refineries at 1000 km. $200,000 a kill. One fifth the price of a Tomahawk.

 

[GR66]

I'd highly recommend a couple of podcasts about drones from War on the Rocks:

Mike Kofman and Rob Lee on Drones in Ukraine - War on the Rocks

This deep and fascinating conversation is one of a two-part discussion that you can listen to on the Russia Contingency, a members-only podcast hosted by

warontherocks.com

A Close Look at Drones in the Russo-Ukrainian War, Part 1 - War on the Rocks

warontherocks.com

(this link is to a members only podcast but if you subscribe to WOTR free podcasts you get access to this episode free)

Some of the points they make are that drone effectiveness is highly variable depending on where on the front you are.

• Unit effectiveness and drone quality are highly variable.
• Commercial drones are typically extensively modified in order to be effective and survivable (COTS drones aren't effective/survivable off the shelf).
• Many FPV drone hits against armoured vehicles fail to take out the vehicle (you only see videos of the successful strikes not the many unsuccessful strikes)
• Frequency bands limit the number of drones that can operate in the same area at one time
• FPV drones are significantly affected by terrain due to their LOS control. On many of the strike videos you see where the video feed cuts out right before the strike it's not EW causing that it's because as the drone gets close to the ground it passes out of LOS of the controller.
• Adding heavier munitions to drones to make them more effective against armoured vehicles significantly reduces their range.
• Drone operators have to be quite physically fit because as high value targets they typically have to hump their gear on foot (at night) in order to get close enough to the front to have useful range for their drones. Using vehicles makes them targets of enemy drones/artillery and staying behind the lines limits their useful range.
• It was commented that the extensive use of strike drones by the Ukrainians is not because they're more effective than traditional artillery but rather due to the shortage of artillery and artillery ammunition.
• Drones are more useful and effective in defensive operations than offensive operations.
• Russian EW is very effective where in use and it's a constant back and forth to find counters.

Despite some of the limitations noted above it was very clear that UAVs of various types will be an integral part of warfare.

• Ukrainians ALWAYS have drones in operation over the front
• For both the Russians and Ukrainians it's extremely difficult to concentrate forces for offensive operations due to persistent surveillance at the front and behind the lines. Most attacks are at the platoon and company level.
• For many attacks the number of drone unit troops might match (or even exceed) then number of assault troops.
• There's great information in the podcasts on the organization of Drone units as they are evolving.
• Typically a FPV drone will have a crew of four (2 x pilots, a technician and a munitions specialist).
• Drone Companies will be Combined Arms units with a mix of FPV, ISR, heavier "Bomber" and Relay drone platoons, etc.

That's just a few of the things that I can remember off the top of my head - listened to them a while ago (doesn't look like you can download a transcript from the website unfortunately).

 

[Kirkhill]

Counter UAS -

Vampire is being augmented by EAGLS

Laser Rocket Anti-Drone Systems Being Rushed To U.S. Forces In The Middle East

The Navy put in an order for new Electronic Advanced Ground Launcher System just ahead of Iran's missile and drone strikes on Israel.

www.twz.com

I find this interesting because it is leveraging the 70mm APKWS system. The Ukrainians have been using beam riders to great effect against all targets, including UAS. Their arsenal now includes the Vampire systems with the 70mm APKWS, the British Martlet 76mm Low Cost Multi Mission Missile, the Starstreak, the Mistral and the Swedish RBS-70. None of which are Fire and Forget like the Stinger. All of them seem to operate in the 5 to 10 km range (8 more typically).

And, as noted, they are used against air, ground and marine targets.

....

Is C-UAS part of the Screening Role of the Recce elements?
And if the APKWS system relies on a laser designator can that same designator be used to guide off-board munitions as well?

 

[Kirkhill]

USMC reinforcing there dispersed Squads - Loitering Attack Munitions for the Squad - Organic Precision Fires-Light

Marines pick three companies for loitering munitions program

The weapon would give squads and platoons air firepower at their fingertips.

www.marinecorpstimes.com

Three contractors invited to come up with at solution, AeroVironnment, Anduril and Teledyne but from what I can see only AeroVironment has a canned solution, the SwitchBlade 300 Block 20. (30 km range for a Squad - 20 minutes endurance)

https://www.avinc.com/lms/switchblade

Anduril has its Altius but that seems to be more suitable for the Mounted version. I can't find anything in the Teledyne stable that looks current.

Anduril

Transforming US & allied military capabilities with advanced technology.

www.anduril.com

....

Organic Precision Fires-Mounted

The mounted system was originally geared toward giving the light armored reconnaissance battalions an armed drone capability. In 2021 the Marines awarded a contract to develop the mounted system to Mistral Inc. and UVision LTD. The Corps now wants it to mount the Light Armored Reconnaissance Vehicle, Joint Light Tactical Vehicle and the Long Range Unmanned Surface Vessel, a semi-autonomous watercraft being developed by the Marines.

The UVision candidate is the Hero-120

HERO-120 - Uvision

Mounted on the LAV, JLTV and LRUSV.



Mistral appears to be working in conjunction with UVision on the Hero-120 solutions.

 

[Kirkhill]

Competition for the VBAT-120 from Anduril? - A high performance tail sitter that can carry various payloads, including explosives, at high sub-sonic speeds.

Introducing Roadrunner

Roadrunner defines a radical new class of operator-supervised autonomous air vehicles capable of high subsonic speeds, high G-force maneuvers, and VTOL return to base for reuse.

www.anduril.com

Anduril unveils VTOL Roadrunner-Munition for aerial defense, one US customer buying in - Breaking Defense

The start-up declined to identify its American customer, but budget documents show that Special Operations Command is investing in counter-UAS technology bearing the “Roadrunner” name.

breakingdefense.com

 

[Kirkhill]

Anduril - building aircraft and subs that are unmanned. Ultimately a software company with software that allows one operator to manage multiple vehicles.

 

[Kirkhill]

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Counter UAS -

Vampire is being augmented by EAGLS

View attachment 84490

Laser Rocket Anti-Drone Systems Being Rushed To U.S. Forces In The Middle East

The Navy put in an order for new Electronic Advanced Ground Launcher System just ahead of Iran's missile and drone strikes on Israel.

www.twz.com

I find this interesting because it is leveraging the 70mm APKWS system. The Ukrainians have been using beam riders to great effect against all targets, including UAS. Their arsenal now includes the Vampire systems with the 70mm APKWS, the British Martlet 76mm Low Cost Multi Mission Missile, the Starstreak, the Mistral and the Swedish RBS-70. None of which are Fire and Forget like the Stinger. All of them seem to operate in the 5 to 10 km range (8 more typically).

And, as noted, they are used against air, ground and marine targets.

....

Is C-UAS part of the Screening Role of the Recce elements?
And if the APKWS system relies on a laser designator can that same designator be used to guide off-board munitions as well?

I have to question the electrical system on that vehicle running all that equipment. I assume the laser runs off of a storage capacitator for it's shots and is limited by recharge times and equipment temperatures?

 

[Kirkhill]

I have to question the electrical system on that vehicle running all that equipment. I assume the laser runs off of a storage capacitator for it's shots and is limited by recharge times and equipment temperatures?

I think that particular system is just using the laser as a range finder and designator with the 70mms as the kill vehicles.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Considering there hasn’t been an actual sale for the XQ-58 yet, Kratos is really going guns blazing…

This was a great investment stock pick….

 

[Kirkhill]

Considering there hasn’t been an actual sale for the XQ-58 yet, Kratos is really going guns blazing…

Was there something about the terms of this sale then?

Following increased Air Force interest, Navy buys its own Valkyrie drones - Breaking Defense

The Air Force started regularly flying the XQ-58 in November at Eglin.

breakingdefense.com

 

[Kirkhill]

New name for the Arsenal Ship - Mobile Fire Base

https://warriormaven.com/sea/navy-may-add-armed-robotic-mobile-fire-base-floating-attack-drone

 

[Kirkhill]

DARPA - Human F16 vs AI F16

Pentagon takes AI dogfighting to next level in real-world flight tests against human F-16 pilot

Flight tests conducted by the Defense Advanced Research Agency, the U.S. Air Force and their industry partners have demonstrated safe and effective employment of an autonomous fighter jet, including in “nose-to-nose” dogfighting against a human F-16 pilot, according to officials.

defensescoop.com

“The critical problem on the battlefield is time. And AI will be able to do much more complicated things much more accurately and much faster than human beings can. If a human being is in the loop, you will lose. You can have human supervision, you can watch over what the AI is doing, [but] if you try to intervene, you’re going to lose,”

in September, “we actually took the X-62 and flew it against a live manned F-16. We built up in safety using the maneuvers — first defensive, then offensive, then high aspect nose-to-nose engagements where we got as close as 2,000 feet at 1,200 miles per hour,” Lt. Col. Maryann Karlen, deputy commandant of the test pilot school, said in the video.

The exercise marked “the first AI vs human within-visual-range engagement (a.k.a. ‘dogfight’), conducted with actual manned F-16 aircraft,” the DOD said in the program update.

 

[Kirkhill]

Inside the changing world of drone warfare

Drones have changed warfare for both offensive and defensive operations, impacting everything from communication to trench warfare.

taskandpurpose.com