Defending Canadian Arctic Sovereignty

[MarkOttawa]

And note from re-established US 2nd Fleet at Norfolk, VA:

New 2nd Fleet To Confront Russia From Day One
...
The Pentagon report [ https://media.defense.gov/2019/May/02/2002127082/-1/-1/1/2019_CHINA_MILITARY_POWER_REPORT.pdf ] said that Chinese “civilian research could support a strengthened Chinese military presence in the Arctic Ocean, which could include deploying submarines to the region as a deterrent against nuclear attacks.”

The Arctic is part of 2nd Fleet’s responsibility, and in the long run, the US is looking to establish more of “a capability and a presence in the Arctic, so as to maintain freedom of the seas, freedom of navigation within international norms,” [Admiral, Fleet commander] Lewis said.

He added that since Beijing is “very focused on their Belt Road initiative — and that goes through the Arctic.” Asked if he expects to have contact with the Chinese in the far north, he said “potentially.”
https://breakingdefense.com/2019/05/new-2nd-fleet-to-confront-russia-from-day-one/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[The Bread Guy]

... I think that's great, two countries working together developing resources. Perhaps we could hire China to manage ours.

Don't think they don't know what we have, even in spots many Canadians don't know we have ...

A delegation of KWG Resources and Marten Falls First Nation (MFFN), one of the communities near the Ring of Fire deposits, completed a trip to China to lay the foundation for a Far North railway and project financing.

A June 1 KWG release said the group was provided with an overview of the feasibility study began last year, when they most recently visited with their project partner, China Railway First Survey & Design Institute Group (FSDI), at its headquarters in Xian, China on May 15 (2017).

The company was advised by its Chinese partners that the study had concluded that the route which traverses the Marten Falls’ traditional territory was a viable alignment for the construction of a chromite ore-haul railroad.

The study estimates that at a capital cost of US$1.965 billion such a railroad could be constructed to transport 10 million tonnes of chromite annually by 2030, potentially growing to a yearly volume of up to 24 million tonnes by 2040.

KWG has a 30 per cent stake in the Big Daddy chromite deposit in a joint venture it shares with Noront Resources. The company is also holding a 50 per cent stake in the Black Horse chromite deposit in another agreement with Bold Ventures.

As a proponent of a north-south railroad, the Toronto-based chromite developer is looking to source financing and secure supply agreements from within the Chinese stainless industry ...

Just remember, though, Chinese soft power is soft, until it's not anymore.

 

[OceanBonfire]

N.W.T. premier will push Ottawa for greater military presence, more icebreakers in the North

Bob McLeod’s vision for the future includes a 5,000-person military base in Inuvik, N.W.T.

Laurie Sarkadi · CBC News · Posted: May 01, 2019

N.W.T. Premier Bob McLeod says his vision for the North includes a stronger military presence, and more investment in transportation infrastructure. (Bill Braden/Canadian Press)


N.W.T. Premier Bob McLeod is laying out a vision for the North's future that includes an increased military presence and major development of Arctic waters for transportation.

"We need to position Canada's North as a central international transport hub for the future of the Arctic and we see significant more infrastructure investment required," McLeod said in a recent interview with CBC Politics in Ottawa.

McLeod said he'll be presenting this and other ideas to the federal government in Ottawa within the next month.

The premier wants Canada to triple its icebreaker fleet within five years and triple its deepwater port capacity within 10 years.

"I think that you see other Arctic countries becoming significant players in the Arctic and we need to be sure that Canada and the North is ready for when that happens," McLeod said.

The Coast Guard icebreaker Des Groseilliers sails in the water of the Arctic Archipelago. N.W.T. Premier Bob McLeod wants the federal government to build more icebreakers to serve the North. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)


Both China and Russia have shown growing interest in the Arctic. The Barents Observer of Norway reported in February that Russia plans to use supersonic jet fighters to make regular patrols of the North Pole, something Russia hasn't done since the Cold War.

McLeod said Inuvik, located 100 kilometres from the Beaufort Sea, should play a key security role.

"We'd like to see a full military base, preferably in Inuvik, of about 5,000 permanent personnel," he said.

While the federal government announced last fall that Yellowknife will be home to a new Arctic Region Coast Guard base, McLeod said there should be a base in the Beaufort Sea.

Officials from all three northern territories are meeting in Yellowknife on Wednesday. The Arctic Security Working Group will discuss safety, security and defence issues, along with the commander of the Canadian Forces' Joint Task Force North.

It's unknown whether McLeod's vision of a more militarized North will be part of the federal government's much-anticipated Arctic Policy Framework, which may be released as early as June.

The new Arctic policy initiative was announced in December 2016 to replace the 2009 Northern Strategy and the 2010 Statement on Canada's Arctic Foreign Policy under Stephen Harper's Conservative government.

The current federal government recently added foreign affairs and national security, as well as reconciliation, to the list of themes the new policy will address.

"We've been working with the government of Canada on a 10-year vision and plan for Arctic Canada and I've been going to a lot of Arctic conferences and realizing that Canada is falling way far behind the other Arctic countries," McLeod said.

"So we're coming up with a plan where the Arctic will become a critical international arena of economics, science and infrastructure and environment strategy."


Icebreaker U

In order to increase understanding of the Arctic, McLeod envisions a Canada-wide civil service rotation program in which senior bureaucrats from the South spend time living in the North. He'd also like to see a federal department of Arctic affairs and a northern immigration program.

"We think that we need more immigration and the fact is we don't have enough people up here. We're also looking at having a permanent offshore Arctic university school on one of the existing icebreakers," he said.

McLeod said he takes climate change and Arctic ecology "very, very seriously." His vision for the N.W.T., however, remains steeped in fostering transportation corridors and pipelines to accommodate the oil and gas industry.

McLeod says innovation is needed to find alternate energy sources for 20 diesel-dependent communities beyond solar and wind, given that neither of those can supply continuous, year-round power to communities.

McLeod has been premier of the N.W.T. since 2011. He is the MLA for the riding of Yellowknife South. The next territorial election is Oct. 1.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/premier-mcleod-to-pitch-ottawa-1.5117709

 

[Kirkhill]

I like that.

A civilian ask rather than a military demand.

PS, and by the way, the civil servants should also rotate through the West as well as the North.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Am I the only one who finds it ironic that someone named McLeod is asking for more Coast Guard icebreakers. 

I am sure, at least Colin get's the reference.
:nod:

Or as they used to say in Cheers: NORM!!!

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Rogers, understood

 

[MarkOttawa]

Meanwhile CCG will be lucky to get its one new polar icebreaker from Seaspan before 2030 (not even a timeline for delivery now http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/rpp/2018-19/SupplementaryTables/mcp-eng.html ):

Coast Guard Hopes to Have 3 Polar Security Cutters Fielded by 2028

The Coast Guard hopes to have its first three heavy icebreakers fielded by 2027 or 2028 to replace the one icebreaker that is increasingly struggling to make it to Antarctica and back each year and to increase U.S. presence in the high latitudes, the commandant said today.

U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Karl Schultz said this morning that the icebreaker program – a planned three heavy icebreakers dubbed the Polar Security Cutter and three medium icebreakers – was more capital-intensive than most Coast Guard acquisition efforts, but “right now my sense is we enjoy support from the administration, we enjoy bipartisan, bicameral support” in Congress, he said while speaking on a service chiefs panel at the Navy League’s annual Sea Air Space conference.

After awarding a $745 million contract to VT Halter on April 23, “we’re off to the races” on buying the first ship. This first ship is supposed to deliver to the Coast Guard in 2023. Still, Schultz noted, the Fiscal Year 2020 budget proposal only contains $35 million for the program as a bridge, to keep the acquisition office and construction yard humming until “a big tranche of money” is ideally awarded in FY 2021 to buy the second ship of the class.

“You’ll see larger asks here to get after the second and the third polar security cutter. Ideally projected into our capital investment plan or CIP you’ll see between now and 2028 the [funds] to deliver on those first three polar security cutters,” Schultz said.

Schultz did not elaborate on specifically when he hoped each ship would be put on contract, but maintaining and every-other-year acquisition profile – buying the second and third ships in FY 2021 and 2023, respectively – would allow for all three to be in the fleet by 2027 or 2028...

Schultz said repeatedly that “presence equals influence up there” and that the Coast Guard needed to remain involved in any commercial or military activity taking place in the Arctic as waterways open up. The Coast Guard last month released an Arctic Strategic Outlook [ https://news.usni.org/2019/04/22/document-coast-guard-arctic-strategic-outlook ] that updates a 2013 document. In the intervening six years, the admiral said, the Coast Guard’s focus has moved from safety, security and collaboration to more of an emphasis on competing powers. China is much more active in the Arctic region now, he said, and oil and rare earth minerals under the sea make the Arctic “geographically, geo-strategically competitive space.”

Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson said during the panel that the U.S. Navy is not looking to conduct a legal freedom of navigation operation like it does in contested waters such as the South China Sea, but it does intend to be more active in the Arctic with its Coast Guard and Marine Corps partners.

Richardson said the Navy needs to make a habit of “navigating in these now-free navigable waters. So we want to make sure that as navigation channels open up, consistent with our sovereign responsibilities – we are an Arctic nation – that we are getting up and remaining familiar with those operating in that high north [emphasis added].”

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I don't have huge faith in the US shipyards delivering either.

 

[MarkOttawa]

Further to end of this post https://milnet.ca/forums/threads/16198/post-1570752.html#msg1570752 now see this from Pompeo on NW Passage--not nice:

U.S. stuns audience by tongue-lashing China, Russia on eve of Arctic Council ministerial

ROVANIEMI, Finland – U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stunned onlookers Monday by tongue-lashing China and Russia during an Arctic policy speech on the eve of the Arctic Council ministerial.

“China’s words and actions raise doubts about its intentions,” Pompeo said to a packed audience mostly made up of Arctic Council delegates at Rovaniemi’s Lappi Areena.

“Beijing claims to be a near-Arctic state,” Pompeo said refrencing China’s 2018 white paper on the Arctic. “Yet the shortest distance between China and the Arctic is 900 miles. There are Arctic states, and non-Arctic states. No third category exists. China claiming otherwise entitles them to exactly nothing.”..

Military and security issues have been explicitly excluded from the Arctic Council since its founding, but Pompeo, after discussing China, also singled out Russia in his speech, citing the Ukraine crisis and Russia’s reopening of military bases in the North, as activity increases along the Northern Sea Route.

“We’re concerned about Russia’s claim over the international waters of the Northern Sea Route, including its newly announced plans to connect it with China’s Maritime Silk Road,” he said.

Pompeo also took a swipe at Ottawa during his speech when discussing the Northwest Passage, a waterway Canada considers internal waters, and that the U.S. considers international waters.

“We recognize Russia is not the only country making illegitimate claims,” he said referring to Canada[emphasis added]...

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Canada should start negotiations with France for 4 nuke attack subs to replace the Victoria Class. I picked French as I don't think there are any ITAR items aboard that the US could object to. that might perks Washington's attention. Along with Rafale jets.

 

[CBH99]

Dassault already pulled the Rafale from the competition, most likely because dealing with Procurement Canada isn't worth the headache.  Think India via North America...

And if the only 'contested' area of water is the NW Passage, that's something I'm sure the US & Canada could discuss and come to an agreement on. 

I'm not sure if it makes a huge different in practicality one way or the other, as I'm not sure if if there are many natural resources to be exploited & industrialized in that area?  (I legitimately don't know, so feel free to correct me on this last statement.)


We have to remember that once this American administration is gone, relations will hopefully return to a more civil & allied demeanor.  Which means when it comes to the defense of North America, Canada & the USA are shoulder to shoulder - both in SPIRIT and the practical application of NORAD.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Canada should start negotiations with France for 4 nuke attack subs to replace the Victoria Class. I picked French as I don't think there are any ITAR items aboard that the US could object to. that might perks Washington's attention. Along with Rafale jets.

Four wouldn’t be a game changer, either we do 7-8 or we don’t bother.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Dassault already pulled the Rafale from the competition, most likely because dealing with Procurement Canada isn't worth the headache.  Think India via North America...

And if the only 'contested' area of water is the NW Passage, that's something I'm sure the US & Canada could discuss and come to an agreement on. 

I'm not sure if it makes a huge different in practicality one way or the other, as I'm not sure if if there are many natural resources to be exploited & industrialized in that area?  (I legitimately don't know, so feel free to correct me on this last statement.)


We have to remember that once this American administration is gone, relations will hopefully return to a more civil & allied demeanor.  Which means when it comes to the defense of North America, Canada & the USA are shoulder to shoulder - both in SPIRIT and the practical application of NORAD.

Even "Discussions" will get noticed and some political talk about Canada needing to enforce it's sovereignty. That would make any quiet diplomacy more fruitful.

 

[MarkOttawa]

How is the USN going to do a FONOP in NW Passage this summer? Something weird is going on with USN, USCG and Pompeo (and probably Bolton):

Washington plans to send U.S. Navy through Northwest Passage

Canada should brace for a potentially bruising political showdown with the United States this summer as Washington considers sending its navy through the Northwest Passage, undermining Canada’s sovereignty claim over the Arctic sea route in a message intended as a warning to Russia, experts say.

Navy Secretary Richard Spencer told reporters last week Washington is exploring the possibility of sending a ship through the Northwest Passage this summer as part of a freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) to assert its right of passage through what it considers to be international waters.

Spencer’s message was reinforced Monday by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo who told a meeting of foreign ministers of the Arctic Council in northern Finland, that the U.S. doesn’t recognize Canada’s “illegitimate” claim to the Northwest Passage, which cuts through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, or Russia’s sovereignty over the Northern Sea Route along its Arctic coastline.

Both Canada and Russia claim these passages are internal waters and argue that the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) allows coastal states to manage ice-covered waters.

Pompeo’s remarks during a blistering speech where he attacked both Russia’s but also China’s Arctic ambitions, come after a series of pronouncements by U.S. officials in recent months, where they floated the idea of conducting freedom of navigation operations in Arctic waters, just as Washington begins to see the region as “an arena for power and for competition” in Pompeo’s words.

With receding sea ice, the Arctic Ocean is rapidly taking on new strategic significance for the U.S., Pompeo told an audience of stunned Arctic Council foreign ministers and Indigenous leaders during a speech in Rovaniemi, Finland.

Offshore resources in the rapidly melting Arctic are the subject of renewed competition, he added.

“Steady reductions in sea ice are opening new passageways and new opportunities for trade,” Pompeo said.  “This could potentially slash the time it takes to travel between Asia and the West by as much as 20 days. Arctic sea lanes could come before – could come the 21s century Suez and Panama Canals.”
‘Mind-bogglingly provocative’

But while the warming Arctic may open dramatic new possibilities for shipping and commerce, plans for U.S. Navy Arctic operations are premature and potentially dangerous, said Becca Pincus, an assistant professor in the Strategic and Operational Research Department at the U.S. Naval War College.

“In Russia it would be just mind-bogglingly provocative,” Pincus told Radio Canada International. “It is really hard for me to think of a more provocative action the U.S. could take vis-à-vis Russia among the suit of legal steps.”

Russia is not going just watch the U.S. ships go by and issue a diplomatic protest, she said.

“It’s going to be a crisis,” Pincus said. “And we’re already at a boiling point, it’s really risky.”

And on the Canadian side it would also provoke an enormous political backlash, she said.

“I don’t think there would be as much potential for sort of a kinetic level crisis as you’d see on the Russian side,” Pincus said. “I think it would be a political crisis rather than, perhaps, a military crisis.”

However, it’s hard to understand how applying pressure on Canada – one of the closest U.S. allies, a partner in NORAD – would benefit Washington and how it would outweigh the enormous political cost that would ensue, she added.

Business as usual

Officials with Global Affairs Canada reiterated Monday Ottawa’s commitment “to exercising the full extent of its rights and sovereignty over its territory and its Arctic waters, including the various waterways commonly referred to as the Northwest Passage.”

The waterways that make up the Northwest Passage are part of the internal waters of Canada, said a statement from Global Affairs Canada.

“Canada and the U.S. have differing views regarding the status of the Northwest Passage under international law,” the statement said.

“The situation is well managed, including through the 1988 Arctic Cooperation Agreement, according to which the U.S. government seeks Canada’s consent for its ice breakers to navigate the waterways.”

And when it comes to defence and security, relations between Canada and the U.S. are “longstanding, well-entrenched and highly successful, the statement added.

Lack of ice-strengthened ships could hamper U.S. Arctic ambitions

It’s also not clear what vessels the U.S. plans to use to conduct the FONOP this time around, Pincus said.

“You would need an ice-strengthened vessel of some kind to do a FONOP in the Arctic region whether you’re going through the Northwest Passage or Northern Sea Route (NSR),” Pincus said. “The United States Navy doesn’t have ice-strengthened surface vessels, period.”

And the U.S. Coast Guard has one functioning medium class icebreaker, USCGS Healy, that is fully booked for science missions this summer, she added. [emphasis added]

“I have no idea how the Navy would execute a FONOP through either the NSR or the Northwest Passage without an icebreaker and I don’t know where they would get an icebreaker,” Pincus said. “It does not seem to me feasible.”

Doing a freedom of navigation operation without an icebreaker escort would be extremely dangerous, she added.

“It would be a hell of a risk to take particularly when you’re conducting an operation that is designed to challenge the coastal state,” Pincus said. “You’re not going to be in a position to get a lot of help from that coastal state.”

And if the U.S. vessel were to run into trouble in the Northwest Passage and forced to ask for help from Canadian authorities, it would undermine the point of the mission, she said.

“I think this proposal reflects a lack of familiarity with the specifics and the particulars of the Arctic region,” Pincus said...
http://www.rcinet.ca/eye-on-the-arctic/2019/05/06/washington-plans-to-send-u-s-navy-through-northwest-passage/

Read on.

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Eye In The Sky]

Four wouldn’t be a game changer, either we do 7-8 or we don’t bother.

4 would be 4 more that are 'under ice' capable than the RCN has now.  Keep the current SSKs (we've already got $ put into them, and SSKs are useful in ways that SSNs aren't in some situations), and add the SSNs.  Littoral and blue water capabilities. 

 

[Czech_pivo]

4 would be 4 more that are 'under ice' capable than the RCN has now.  Keep the current SSKs (we've already got $ put into them, and SSKs are useful in ways that SSNs aren't in some situations), and add the SSNs.  Littoral and blue water capabilities.

I agree with that, maybe have 8 be the end goal with the last 4 coming online as the Vic’s are paid off.

 

[Sub_Guy]

Won’t happen for numerous reasons.

The US controls the arctic.  While we like to pretend we do, we don’t.

We need to find a way to work with them, instead of digging our heals in.  At the end of the day they have the resources and we don’t. 

Everyone likes to slam China for their shenanigans in the South China Sea, but the US is no different.

Perhaps there could be some sort of global fund setup to help finance quick reaction SAR stations at key locations in the Northwest Passage.  If the global community is going to benefit from using the passage, then perhaps the big global players could provide funding for these stations. 

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Or Canada could just put on its adult clothes and actually pay the real costs of sovereignty.

Instead of just mouthing platitudes.

 

[tomahawk6]

Or start leasing your arctic oil drilling property'

 

[daftandbarmy]

Perhaps there could be some sort of global fund setup to help finance quick reaction SAR stations at key locations in the Northwest Passage.  If the global community is going to benefit from using the passage, then perhaps the big global players could provide funding for these stations.

You mean, like, all the communities, Inuit and otherwise, we have dotting the landscape up there right now that are basically falling into a state of disrepair that would never be seen even in the 3rd world?

Yeah, we're committed alright. To the strip on land about 200 miles wide along the US Border that contains 99.9% of Canadian voters.