CPC Leadership Discussion 2020-21

[SeaKingTacco]

Justin Trudeau  -  born Christmas Day 1971 at the Ottawa Civic Hospital.

Touche. Still, he is viewed with Quebec as a native son. No Calgarian, ever, no matter how bilingual would ever get the same treatment.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Yup. And even if he's 'not conservative enough' for some of the prairies, CPC can still afford to lose 15% popular support there and sweep the region. I think CPC focused *too* hard on the prairies in the last few years, well past the point of diminishing returns. They pandered harder to their base than the situation called for, and in doing so drove away a lot of moderates and centrists.

A fair comment and I think the political culture in Canada would be far healthier today if the Conservatives had traded 5 Alberta/Sask seats with the Liberals for 5 GTA seats.

 

[brihard]

A fair comment and I think the political culture in Canada would be far healthier today if the Conservatives had traded 5 Alberta/Sask seats with the Liberals for 5 GTA seats.

I think the initial rate of return would be far higher than one for one.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

I think the initial rate of return would be far higher than one for one.

I get what you are saying, but I am just saying it would be better to have 5 more western MPs in government and 5 more GTA MPs in opposition, just to moderate positions on both sides.

 

[brihard]

I get what you are saying, but I am just saying it would be better to have 5 more western MPs in government and 5 more GTA MPs in opposition, just to moderate positions on both sides.

Gotcha. And yeah, for reasons our political health, I agree.

 

[ModlrMike]

That would have been an interesting play. The Liberals have been running against Harper for the past 4 years, even though he wasn't even on the field.

It would have been mighty curious to see what would have happened if he decided to make a comeback...

He won't, but that also won't stop the Liberals from running against him again.

 

[Journeyman]

Looks like it's increasingly MacKay's to lose.

On some other sites I follow, there's a lot of anger towards MacKay from Conservative party members, who seem willing to lose another election rather than having "him" ('MacKay,' said with a sneer) as leader.  Can you say "self-inflicted wound"?

 

[brihard]

On some other sites I follow, there's a lot of anger towards MacKay from Conservative party members, who seem willing to lose another election rather than having "him" ('MacKay,' said with a sneer) as leader.  Can you say "self-inflicted wound"?

I’ve seen it too. They can either unify behind an electable leader who can form government, or they can continue to pout impotently in opposition. The CPC’s wunderkind has left them with arguably no more political clout than either the NDP or the Bloc Québecois, either of which suffice to prop up the LPC minority.

There is no longer any welcoming home in Canadian government for social conservatism. It isn’t entirely gone away, but it is not electable, and it is a specific turn off for a lot of us who sit naturally near the political centre and who will happily vote for a pragmatic and rational CPC that stays largely out of social stuff. CPC - with a good leader - can take the election on economic and foreign affairs policy platforms. They don’t need to get stupid and go slumming for votes in the prairies. They may lose a few to the twitching husk of the PPC, or to some new Wexit movement, but it will not substantially threaten their electoral chances, not if they have a solid plan on energy and resources.

 

[Infanteer]

They don’t need to get stupid and go slumming for votes in the prairies.

A point - or more of a question.  When we say "social conservatism," are we using it for shorthand for "religious-driven policy" or "religious politics"?  When we talk about social conservatism, are we really just talking about (predominantly) Christians with strong political views on abortion, marriage, and gender derived from their spiritual interpretations of right and wrong?

If the answer is yes, than I'm not sure why you'd link social conservatism with the Prairies.  For every Brad Trost, there is a Tania Granic Allen, a Faith Goldy, a Charles McVety in Ontario.  In fact, when you look at Canada, the West is generally less religious than Eastern Canada.  "Religiosity" declines as you go East to West.  Although the data is a bit dated, I suspect there hasn't been too much variance since 2011.  The "so what" is that we need to quit thinking of Western Canada as this "religious right" bastion driving the Conservative Party.  Their strength there, I suspect, lies far more in the regional and economic friction that has been a part of Canada from the start.

 

[mariomike]

For every Brad Trost, there is a Tania Granic Allen, a Faith Goldy, a Charles McVety in Ontario.

How many voters take them seriously?

Faith ran for mayor of Toronto and only got 3 % ( 3.40 to be exact ) of the vote.

Since then, she has been banned from Facebook,

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/facebook-faith-goldy-ban-alt-right-1.5088827
Social media giant says platform can't be used to spread hate

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

I am not sure that is the way to read that article.

Religious "affiliation" is one thing - it relates to which religion people claim to be from. And while it supports your description, it should be read in conjunction with the " service attendance" figures (with the bar already set low at once a month or more). You can see that nowadays, Ontario, the Maritimes and the prairies are all basically at same "one-person-in-three" level of attendance, while B.C. is somewhat lower and Quebec, at one-person-in-six level of attendance, is blowing every one else out of the water.

I suspect  for the Quebec figures, if one removes the Muslims, Anglicans and Jews attendance which are above average, you'll find out the Pew research results arise from the fact that, while most French-Canadian Quebecers still identify as Catholic because they were baptized (high affiliation figures), they almost all don't practice (attendance figures).

Right now in Quebec, French-Canadians tend to go to church to get baptized, married (but less and less for this one with nearly 60% of weddings being civil only) and buried. 

 

[Jarnhamar]

[quote author=mariomike]

Since then, she has been banned from Facebook,
[/quote]

And yet the Muslim Brotherhood's facebook page is alive and well.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

And yet the Muslim Brotherhood's facebook page is alive and well.

Ummmm

This might be worth a read

https://www.britannica.com/topic/Muslim-Brotherhood/Uprising-and-electoral-success

 

[Infanteer]

I am not sure that is the way to read that article.

Religious "affiliation" is one thing - it relates to which religion people claim to be from. And while it supports your description, it should be read in conjunction with the " service attendance" figures (with the bar already set low at once a month or more). You can see that nowadays, Ontario, the Maritimes and the prairies are all basically at same "one-person-in-three" level of attendance, while B.C. is somewhat lower and Quebec, at one-person-in-six level of attendance, is blowing every one else out of the water.

Good point.  Here is another data point:

https://www.intrust.org/Magazine/Issues/New-Year-2016/Religious-affiliation-and-attendance-in-Canada

Evangelicals are the most likely to attend regularly,  and French Catholic the least, which supports your statement above (probably a lasting effect of the Quiet Revolution?).

 

[mariomike]

Religious "affiliation" is one thing - it relates to which religion people claim to be from. And while it supports your description, it should be read in conjunction with the " service attendance" figures

My late mother-in-law paid membership at two synagogues in the Wilson Heights area.

I asked her, why pay two memberships?

She said, "When I skip, they assume I am at the other." 

 

[dapaterson]

Some old favourite cartoons about Peter...

https://twitter.com/jamespmcleod/status/1221459375015038982

 

[Haggis]

MacKay will be an easy target for the Liberals should he win the leadership, given his affiliation with the Great Blue Bogeyman and his helicopter antics, just to name those "scandals" that we already know about.  Sadly, those Conservative leadership candidates who could've actually defeated Trudeau's personality cult in the next election have chosen not to run.  I believe it's because they see no chance of Trudeau being beaten by any mainstream party in their current states and they don't want to be the loser in the next election.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

After Trudeau jr. flew illegally on a civilian helicopter (of the Aga Khan), I don't think he would be in position of calling Mackay on his inappropriate use of a military one.

At least, the military got training and flying hours that count towards preparedness from Mackay's antics.  :nod:

 

[Haggis]

After Trudeau jr. flew illegally on a civilian helicopter (of the Aga Khan), I don't think he would be in position of calling Mackay on his inappropriate use of a military one.

The PM was never charged, tried or found guilty. Therefore, your perception of the event differs from his.

At least, the military got training and flying hours that count towards preparedness from Mackay's antics.  :nod:

  Do you think that will matter?  Or even be mentioned?

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Jesus Christ himself could run as leader of the Conservatives and he would be tarred by the Liberals for not ensuring that 6 of his disciples were women.

My point is: Doesn't matter who the Conservatives pick: mud will be thown by the Liberals. If Peter Mackay wins the leadership, at least he brings a proven track record as a moderate and is a good communicator who can think on his feet. After that: the chips will fall where they fall.