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Conservatism needs work

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Its always interesting to see people making claims about economics by totally ignoring history. Saying "Tax cuts don't work" only makes sense if you pretend that the US GDP did not grow 33% during the Reagan administration or the Harris government did not collect $20 billion more in revenues at the end of their term in office, or Saskatchewan is not undergoing an economic boom that dates to the demise of the NDP government there, or the "Go Go 60's" did not start with the Kennedy tax cuts. Or do economic growth and revenue spring from the ground?

Of course countervailing evidence about the effectiveness of Keynesian economics goes down the memory hole as well; otherwise there would be a very spirited discussion about how the massive deficit spending initiated by the Democrat house and senate starting in 2006 failed to stop the economic recession from happening, but also how the "Stimulus" which was supposed to keep unemployment from going above 8% not only failed ot do so, but resulted in uneployment rising to 15% by the U-6 measurment (or 11% using U-3), where is still stuck. The few places in the US where unemployment and economic growth are not flatlined do not practice Keynesian economics, but are noted for free markets, limited regulation and low taxes.

I'm sure in academic circles keeping eyes closed and not looking outside the windows allows people to indulge in magical thinking, but the real world is calling...
 
And a bit more history:

http://blog.american.com/2011/12/obamas-strange-revisionist-history-on-60-minutes/

Obama’s strange, revisionist history on ‘60 Minutes’
By James Pethokoukis
December 12, 2011, 10:06 am

President Barack Obama, last night on “60 Minutes”:

I didn’t overpromise. And I didn’t underestimate how tough this was gonna be. I always believed that this was a long-term project; this wasn’t a short-term project.

Actually, Obama did overpromise—and underdeliver—on dealing with the U.S. economy. Back in August 2009, the Obama White House put out its updated economic forecast. Now, this was after the $800 billion stimulus had passed and, technically, after the Great Recession had ended. Here is where the White House thought the economy was headed over the next few years:



Talk about overpromising. According to the 2009 Obama forecast, 2011 was supposed to start a five-year mini-boom where GDP growth averaged 4 percent, taking the unemployment rate down below 6 percent by 2014. But few outside economists are so rosy today. The latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists predicts the unemployment rate will still be above 7 percent through 2014 with GDP growth averaging a subpar 2.5 percent.

The White House explanation is that no one knew back in 2009 how bad the Great Recession really was. Indeed, instead of contracting by 2.8 percent in 2009, as indicated in the above chart, GDP actually contracted by 3.5 percent. Yet even after 2009, the White House continued to be strangely bullish. In 2010, it predicted “Recovery Summer,” expecting a big drop in unemployment. And in its most recent economic forecast, from last summer, the Obama White House was still predicting 3.7 percent average GDP growth from 2012-2016. No wonder Obama has been so blasé about the impact of raising taxes on wealthier Americans and small business. He thinks a powerful recovery can more or less shake off the tax hikes just like it did in the 1990s. Or at least such rosy forecasts help him make that argument for political reasons.

In the end, Obama overestimated the impact of his stimulus plan and underestimated the severity of the Great Recession. Indeed, his economic team was dismissive of the idea that the aftermath of the financial crisis posed any special problems for the recovery, despite much research to the contrary. This allowed Team Obama to shift gears to healthcare and financial reform and ignore key longer-run measures to boost economic growth such as pro-growth tax reform. Maybe Obama is finally realizing it now and will push such policies if he wins a second term.

Obama lied, the economy died. Related: February 2009: Obama Vows To Cut The Deficit In Half By End Of His “First Term.”
 
Thucydides said:
Its always interesting to see people making claims about economics by totally ignoring history. Saying "Tax cuts don't work" only makes sense if you pretend that the US GDP did not grow 33% during the Reagan administration or the Harris government did not collect $20 billion more in revenues at the end of their term in office, or Saskatchewan is not undergoing an economic boom that dates to the demise of the NDP government there, or the "Go Go 60's" did not start with the Kennedy tax cuts. Or do economic growth and revenue spring from the ground?

Of course countervailing evidence about the effectiveness of Keynesian economics goes down the memory hole as well; otherwise there would be a very spirited discussion about how the massive deficit spending initiated by the Democrat house and senate starting in 2006 failed to stop the economic recession from happening, but also how the "Stimulus" which was supposed to keep unemployment from going above 8% not only failed ot do so, but resulted in uneployment rising to 15% by the U-6 measurment (or 11% using U-3), where is still stuck. The few places in the US where unemployment and economic growth are not flatlined do not practice Keynesian economics, but are noted for free markets, limited regulation and low taxes.

I'm sure in academic circles keeping eyes closed and not looking outside the windows allows people to indulge in magical thinking, but the real world is calling...

Kennedy impacted the economy by hitting the demand side, not through the supply side. As this article points out "This distinction" is
"taught in Economics 101..." http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/history_lesson/2004/01/tax_cuts_in_camelot.html Kennedy was not a supply-sider, Corporate America couldn't stand him....

As for rest of it, you continue to put the blinders on (and yet accuse everyone else of ignoring history). US debt as a percentage of it's GDP was being steadily reduced since the end of WW2, and then Reagan comes along and it's grown like cancer ever since, with the exception of Bill Clinton who also practiced demand-side policies (taxing the wealthiest and lowering taxes on the poor). Seen on this graph, although I doubt you'll even look http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Federal_Debt_1901-2010_.jpg

I've already explained the Mike Harris thing, I don't see the point in going over it again since you just bury your head further into the sand every time. And yes, Saskatchewan's booming economy did spring from the ground... it's called oil and gas. EDIT: I should add that I don't doubt for a second that high-taxation in Saskatchewan would be screwing their economy, and cutting taxes in an economy with the potential to produce would help it grow. Like I said, human behavioural motivation. Supply-side economics would be the appropriate choice in this scenario, much like it was for Harris.

But of course, applying a bit of logic and reasoning skills to an economic theory is apparently trying to convince people that touching a hot stove is a good idea. We should instead use a supply & demand graph, and ignore human behaviour's affect on those theories. Luckily, there are people in the world that recognize that no theory is perfect and will work in any and every situation since behavioural motivation affects them.

But hey, keep advocating the America continues to do the same thing it's been doing for 30 years... what's the definition of insanity again? Oh that's right, in your version of history it *has* been working.
 
You know, maybe the best thing any government can do is just admit it cannot run an economy, take it's paws off, and just let people make money.  Things will work out...
 
Thucydides said:
Its always interesting to see people making claims about economics by totally ignoring history. Saying "Tax cuts don't work" only makes sense if you pretend that the US GDP did not grow 33% during the Reagan administration or the Harris government did not collect $20 billion more in revenues at the end of their term in office, or Saskatchewan is not undergoing an economic boom that dates to the demise of the NDP government there, or the "Go Go 60's" did not start with the Kennedy tax cuts. Or do economic growth and revenue spring from the ground?

Of course countervailing evidence about the effectiveness of Keynesian economics goes down the memory hole as well; otherwise there would be a very spirited discussion about how the massive deficit spending initiated by the Democrat house and senate starting in 2006 failed to stop the economic recession from happening, but also how the "Stimulus" which was supposed to keep unemployment from going above 8% not only failed ot do so, but resulted in uneployment rising to 15% by the U-6 measurment (or 11% using U-3), where is still stuck. The few places in the US where unemployment and economic growth are not flatlined do not practice Keynesian economics, but are noted for free markets, limited regulation and low taxes.

I'm sure in academic circles keeping eyes closed and not looking outside the windows allows people to indulge in magical thinking, but the real world is calling...

Just me, the Financial Times and the OECD.  ::)
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fba05442-1f3e-11e1-ab49-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1gPsc3kqX

"Trickle-down theory is dead. The belief fostered by Ronald Reagan in the US and Margaret Thatcher in the UK in the 1980s, that if the rich got richer their income and wealth would trickle down the income scale so that a rising tide lifted all the boats, has had the last rites pronounced on it ."
 
I notice that the facts about the huge GDP growth and astonishing revenue increases delivered by tax cuts and supply side economics never seem to be addressed. The current economic situation does not fit Keynesian models (in fact it is in direct contradiction of them, just like Stagflation in the late 1970's was impossible under the Keynesian model), but fits quite nicely with F. A. Hayek's models of credit bubbles creating misallocated resources (and the painful deleveraging process needed to clear the markets).

Politicians, bureaucrats and crony capitalists like Keynesian economics because they can "extract rents" from stimulus schemes and other manipulations, while the rest of us watch our prospects diminish (like the $800 billion "stimulus" which pushed U-3 unemployment to 11% and U-6 to 15%, while virtually flatlining US GDP growth for the last three years). Glenn Reynolds (Instapundit) sums up the opposition to tested remedies in a simple formulation:

"No opportunity for graft"
 
Most right wing economists do not agree with you. The Financial Times, The Economist, the OECD, our Prime Minister and even an older wiser Margret Thatcher consider your economic theories doctrinaire and naive. The vast majority of  RIGHT WING intellectuals think the Chicago School destroys the social fabric that creates the economic foundation for prosperity. Left wing thinkers think it is a scam to trick the proletariat into accepting being screwed over by a class of banker parasites. Your views on this are so extreme it is hard to take them seriously. Ayn Rand's objectivism is equally as fringe. Almost no one still tries to revive these Cold War relics. They were reactionary theories to combat the propaganda of an ideological enemy. Such things inevitably turn out to be useless when the enemy is gone and the light of reason dawns.
 
SeaKingTacco said:
You know, maybe the best thing any government can do is just admit it cannot run an economy, take it's paws off, and just let people make money.  Things will work out...

"Mission command" is to military success as the "invisible hand" is to economic prosperity - fortune favours the decentralizers.  But the technocrats (or elites, or intellectuals, or whatever else we should call people who know quite a bit more than most people but quite a bit less than the sum of knowledge of a complex system) will insist on continuing to play the role of the French High Command in 1940, believing that victory in the last war assures them of victory in this one; if they fail, it can only be because they were insufficiently dirigiste.
 
Thucydides said:
I notice that the facts about the huge GDP growth and astonishing revenue increases delivered by tax cuts and supply side economics never seem to be addressed.

They are addressed every time. They're not evidence of success at all if you get yourself into a worse GDP/debt ratio (what has been happening) and can't afford to pay your creditors (what the US keeps coming closer and closer to). :brickwall:

Would you take a job with a $10,000 pay raise if you were going to have to spend an extra $15,000 a year in travel expenses for it? Because that's essentially what Reagan signed the US up for. Any moron could increase tax revenues and GDP if they just spend like a drunken sailor.

Nemo888 said:
Your views on this are so extreme it is hard to take them seriously.

Agreed
 
Observation trumps theory:

The Reagan tax cuts increased GDP, job growth and every other measure of economic success (see also the UK and Ontario).

The spending part of the equation was undone by the US Congress and Senate, which went along with the tax cuts but treated the new wealth as their own and actively fought spending cuts in any area, with the understanding that in return, they would allow the Reagan Administration to fight the Cold War.

If the spending side of the house was also addressed (as it was in the 1990's Republican Congress under the "Contract with America"), then things begin to come into balance. Sadly, the Contract was allowed to lapse, but the real spending explosion was also demonstrably started in 2006 by the new Democrat majority House and Senate. They boosted the deficit and debt to record heights even before the Obama Administration came into office, and the increase of $4 billion in debt in the last three years dwarfs everything that came before, and without boosting economic growth or reducing unemployment. Just to refresh your memory, here are the claimed benefits of all this stimulus:

http://news.investors.com/Article/594554/201112121843/president-obama-extends-economy-blame-to-bill-clinton.htm

On Feb. 2, 2009, Obama told the "Today Show" that "a year from now I think people are gonna see that we're starting to make some progress," and that "if I don't have this done in three years, then there's going to be a one-term proposition."

On Feb. 12, 2009, he predicted that his $830 billion stimulus would "ignite spending by businesses and consumers" and unleash "a new wave of innovation, activity and construction ... all across America."

• On Feb. 26, 2009, Obama's first budget projected that by 2011 the economy would be cooking ahead at 4% real GDP growth, with unemployment at 7.1% and falling fast.

• On Feb. 7, 2010, he said "we are seeing the corner turn and the economy growing again."

• On June 4, 2010, Obama claimed the "economy is getting stronger by the day" and later that month said the recovery was "well under way."

We all know how that worked out

Shouting at the messenger or pretending not to hear the message might make you feel better, but the evidence is pretty clear: there is no Keynesian economic "Hockey Stick"...
 
So everything good that happened under Reagan is because of him, and everything bad that happened under him is someone else's fault... same goes for Bush... but for Obama, he gets to wear the bad stuff too. It all makes sense now....

Where did I say Obama was doing a great job handling the economy anyway? How did you ever drag him into this?

Your claim that Reagan tax cuts increased "every ... measure of economic success" is simply not true, and it's been pointed out to you more than enough. Reagan kick-started the fall of the US economy, and repeating over and over again that he was great for the US economy is not going to make it come true.

Thucydides said:
Observation trumps theory:

The irony of someone saying that who wants to apply the exact same economic theory to every single problem on the face of the planet, without putting a shred of reasoning behind it, is enough to choke on.

Your observations are either poor as you overlook GDP/Debt every single time (which is a much more important indicator of economic success than anything you've mentioned), or they are stupendously biased because you choose to ignore it to support your own view. Since you've had it pointed out to you numerous times, I can only conclude it's the latter. As Nemo said, your views is so extreme it can't be taken seriously.
 
On Feb. 26, 2009, Obama's first budget projected that by 2011 the economy would be cooking ahead at 4% real GDP growth, with unemployment at 7.1% and falling fast.

Correct me if I am wrong Thucydides, but wasn't that the Obama Administrations first and last budget?

 
Rifleman62 said:
Correct me if I am wrong Thucydides, but wasn't that the Obama Administrations first and last budget?

Indeed. The Democrat Senate has failed to propose or pass a budget for over 900 days now (The Congress has passed the Ryan Budget, but without Senate approval, it is in limbo). One can only hope that after the 2012 election there will be a functional Senate and House again. The Ryan budget is a good starting point to get the US economy moving, but now there will have to be some pretty dramatic new spending cuts added to the mix to counter the additional debt and (hopefully) reverse the current economic trajectory. Restoring the "AAA" credit rating would also be beneficial....
 
Thucydides said:
there will have to be some pretty dramatic new spending cuts added to the mix to counter the additional debt and (hopefully) reverse the current economic trajectory.

like a snowballs' chance in a fire pit. ::)

The trend is clear.
(US debt ceiling at the end of each year from 1981 to 2010)
 
The people who actually create wealth are starting to speak more openly (which is a big improvement over the alternative action of "going Galt" in terms of political discourse):

http://washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/2011/12/job-creators-fight-back/2000096

Job creators fight back
By: John Stossel | 12/13/11 8:05 PM
Some politicians claim that politicians create jobs.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says, "My job is to create jobs."

What hubris! Government has no money of its own. All it does is take from some people and give to others, leaving less money in the private sector for job creation.

Actually, it's worse than that. Since government commandeers scarce resources by force and doesn't have to peddle its so-called services on the market to consenting buyers, there's no feedback mechanism to indicate if those services are worth more to people than what they were forced to go without.

The only people who create real, sustainable jobs are in private businesses -- if they're unsubsidized.

Some CEOs are upset that people don't appreciate what they do. So they formed a group called the Job Creators Alliance.

Brad Anderson, former CEO of Best Buy, joined because he wants to counter the image of businesspeople as evil. When he was young, Anderson himself thought they were evil. But then he "stumbled into a business career" by going to work in a stereo store.

"I watched what happens in building a business. [My store] the Sound of Music, which became Best Buy, was 11 years [old] before I made a dollar of profit."

In 36 years, he turned that store into a $50 billion company.

Tom Stemberg, founder of Staples, got involved with the Job Creators Alliance because he's annoyed that the government makes a tough job much tougher.

He complains that government mostly creates jobs -- that kill jobs.

"They're creating $300 million worth of jobs in the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau," Stemberg said, "which I don't think is going to do much for productivity in America. We're creating all kinds of jobs trying to live up to Dodd-Frank ... and those jobs don't create much productivity.

Now, Stemberg runs a venture capital business. "I helped create over 100,000 jobs myself," he said. "Pinkberry and City Sports and J. McLaughlin are growing and adding employment."

To do that, he had to overcome hurdles placed in the way by government.

"All that we get is grief and more hoops to jump through and more forms to fill out and more regulations to comply with," complained Stemberg. "Fastest-growing investment segment in venture capitalism: compliance software."

"Compliance" is the big word in business today. Every business has to have a compliance department. But resources are scarce, so these departments suck away creativity. It's one reason that these successful businesspeople don't think they could do today what they did in the past.

Mike Whalen, CEO of Heart of America Group, said he got started with loans from banks that took a chance on an unknown: "It is not an underwriting standard that can be dictated by Dodd-Frank with 55 pages. It's kind of a gut instinct."

But John Allison, who built BB&T Corp. into the 12th-biggest bank in America, says that "gut instinct" is now illegal.

"It would be very difficult to do what we did then today. It was semi-venture-capital thing. The government regulations [today] are so tight, including setting credit standards, particularly since the so-called financial crisis and since they ... changed the credit standards in the banking industry, making it very hard for the banks to finance small businesses."

These successful businessmen realize that in one way, they profit from the regulatory burden. They can absorb the costs. That gives them an advantage over smaller competitors.

"Somebody who wants to compete with us can't because we can afford to hire the guys that can read this stuff and to keep us in compliance with the law. They can't," Anderson said.

Politicians rarely understand this. One who learned it too late was Sen. George McGovern. After he left office, he started a small bed-and-breakfast and hit the regulatory wall he helped create. Later, he wrote, "I wish during the years I was in public office I had this firsthand experience about the difficulties businesspeople face. ... We are choking off business opportunity."

Wish they learned that before leaving office.

Examiner Columnist John Stossel is nationally syndicated by Creators Syndicate.

Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/2011/12/job-creators-fight-back/2000096#ixzz1gZSBtMnN
 
Fact check time. Most of these arguments have been replicated in Canada, using the examples of Ontario (Rae and McGuinty vs Mike Harris) and Saskatchewan (NDP vs Saskatchewan Party) to demonstrate the different results of economic policies in the same area. Even arguments about the role of oil and natual resources in Saskatchewan's current boom don't really wash; Saskatchewan's natural resource base existed in the 1980's but the NDP government's policies kept them in the ground; Saskatchewan never experienced the oil boom Alberta did in the 1980's. (Indeed, I was posted in Alberta in the early 1980's, and lots of people wondered back then why Saskatchewan wasn't getting in on the action).:

http://pjmedia.com/blog/obamas-policies-are-gutting-the-middle-class/?singlepage=true

Obama’s Policies Are Gutting the Middle Class
Posted By Tom Blumer On December 16, 2011 @ 12:05 am In Culture Bytes,economy,Money,US News | 69 Comments

It was more than a little disconcerting to watch President Barack Obama pretend to be a friend of the middle class in Kansas on December 6 [1], and to watch the press lap it up as if it was the gospel truth. The record shows that Obama’s and his party’s policies, plans, and proposals have done more harm to the middle class than any administration in my lifetime.

One of Obama’s core claims is that the policies of the past, coming from largely Republican administrations espousing and carrying out conservative ideas, are what brought the economy to the brink, and that those ideas and policies must never again be considered.

Setting aside for the moment the fact that those ideas and policies were often not conservative enough, Obama’s historical revisionism is about as brazenly dishonest as it gets. After all:

I don’t recall the Community Reinvestment Act, which over several decades morphed into a sledgehammer forcing banks to act against their own interests or face endless litigation at the hands of ACORN-like groups, being a Republican or conservative policy.

I don’t recall current New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s determination to make mortgage financing available based on ethnicity instead of ability and willingness to pay when he ran the Department of Housing and Urban Development in the 1990s under President Bill Clinton something that Republicans or conservatives cheered.

Finally, I don’t recall the systematic undermining of the market for mortgage-backed securities undertaken by Democratic Party cronies who ran the frauds by design [2] known as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac having Republican or conservative approval. While it’s true that Fan and Fred had some RINO defenders, none of them — and for that matter almost no one else in the country besides Democratic insiders — knew that for fifteen years [3], Fan and Fred “routinely misrepresented the mortgages they were acquiring,” presenting them as being of higher quality than they really were. As a result, mortgage-backed securities holders unknowingly bought hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of junk.
The housing and mortgage lending messes, which were almost entirely the creation of Democratic Party policies and Democrat apparatchiks’ backroom scheming, are what brought the economy down. It certainly wasn’t the straw-man, “on your own” mindset Obama chose to demonize in his speech.

The principal economic policy features of the quarter-century stretch Obama wants to send down the memory hole were tax cuts (with booming tax receipts, which the smarties [4] said would never happen) and at least some regulatory restraint (but really not enough). The president claimed that this set of policies “doesn’t work. It has never worked.”

Horse manure. Until things came to a head in housing, as James Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute pointed out on December 7 [5]:

The U.S. economy grew at an average pace of 3.3 percent from 1983-2007, inflation … was slayed, and the stock market rose by 1,400 percent. Median middle-class incomes rose by roughly 50 percent. Reaganomics worked. But Obama acts as if that generation of steady growth … never happened since it doesn’t fit into his disingenuous narrative.

Once we were in the mess, the policies the newly-elected Obama chose to get us out were the ones which so obviously failed to get us out of serious difficulty in the past — which leaves Obama’s seriousness about wanting to get us out open to question. Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s statist “solutions” for the Depression never brought unemployment below 12% [6] during the 1930s. Similarly, three years of round after round of Keynesian stimulus, Keynesian money-printing, and unprecedented Keynesian deficits, combined with previously unseen regulatory excesses, have left the private sector’s output smaller than it was almost four years ago. We still have supposedly grown men and women on the left who continue to claim, during the worst recovery since World War II, that the best form of economic stimulus is continuing to give money to those who aren’t working.

We’ve had a chance to see what the policies Obama said would work will continue to bring us if sustained. It has not been pretty, especially when compared to the analogous Reagan-era time period:

In the 29 months since the recession ended in June 2009, the economy has added a bit less than 2 million seasonally adjusted private-sector jobs. Federal government employment is virtually unchanged despite substantial job losses at the postal service, while previously bloated state and local governments have shed over 550,000 jobs. During the first 29 months after the last full quarter of the Reagan-era recession when the workforce was about 25% smaller, what “doesn’t work” brought us over 7.3 million additional jobs, including more than 400,000 in the public sector.

During the nine quarters after the most recent recession ended, the economy has grown by 5.5%. During the analogous nine quarters under Reagan, what “has never worked” caused the economy to grow by 14%, a full 2-1/2 times faster.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate since the most recent recession ended has gone from 9.5% to 8.6% — and November’s reading [7] had many disturbing “going Galt” elements [8] underlying it. The comparable drop during the Reagan era? From 10.1% to 7.2%, over three times greater.
The economy’s cadre of temporary, seasonal, and part-time workers continues to swell. Incredibly, the economy had only 417,000 more full-time workers [9] in November than it did at the end of the recession. The comparable Reagan-era period saw 6.9 million full-timers added. Employers are avoiding and will continue to avoid adding full-time help as long as they can until they see whether the malaise known as Obamanomics will get another four-year run, and whether the monstrosity known as ObamaCare survives court challenges.

Slow growth, out-of-control regulation, and chronic uncertainty have caused millions of the unemployed to stay that way, making them even more unemployable with each passing day. Millions of others are seeing their skills underutilized. Team Obama’s gutting of the middle class thus far has been quite effective. Give ‘em four more years, and they might just finish the job, all the while pretending to be the average American’s best friend.

(Thumbnail on PJM homepage based on a modified Shutterstock.com [10] image.)

Article printed from PJ Media: http://pjmedia.com

URL to article: http://pjmedia.com/blog/obamas-policies-are-gutting-the-middle-class/

URLs in this post:

[1] in Kansas on December 6: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/12/06/remarks-president-economy-osawatomie-kansas
[2] the frauds by design: http://www.bizzyblog.com/2010/01/10/fan-and-fred-fundamental-frauds-by-design/
[3] for fifteen years: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703278604574624681873427574.html?mod=rss_Today
[4] the smarties: http://www.bizzyblog.com/2010/03/08/ruining-a-country-for-smarties/
[5] on December 7: http://blog.american.com/2011/12/why-obama-needs-to-make-reaganomics-disappear/
[6] never brought unemployment below 12%: http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GreatDepression.html
[7] November’s reading: http://www.bizzyblog.com/2011/12/02/the-november-employment-situation-summary-1202011/
[8] “going Galt” elements: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/key-charts-nfp-report-records-jobless-duration-and-people-who-want-job-civilian-labor-force-plu
[9] had only 417,000 more full-time workers: http://www.bizzyblog.com/wp-images/FullTimeWorkersThru1111.jpg
[10] Shutterstock.com: http://www.shutterstock.com/
 
Part of the reason free market policy is harder to sell is because it takes time. Changing markets is like changing an ecosystem (or perhaps agriculture), while "Progressive" policy focus is more like dumping a pile of fertilizer on one spot. Anyone who has ever accidentally or purposefully dumped fertilizer on one spot in the garden or lawn will know the end result; a "burnt" spot of dead soil...

http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/12/the_democratic_partys_war_against_promotions.html

The Democratic Party's War against Promotions
By John F. Di Leo

The December 2011 battle in Washington, D.C. -- a battle over continuing a Social Security tax-cut for another year, or even another two months -- demonstrates the differences between the parties in stark detail, both in terms of campaign methods and economic ideology.

Most commentators have focused on the campaign methods: brilliant, isn't it, how the Democrats have turned the tables on the GOP, making it look like the GOP is fighting a tax cut?  Pundits laugh at the "tax cut party" being put in the position of opposing a tax cut that all workers' pay, while simultaneously opposing the tax increases on "the rich" that the Democrats are also (constantly) championing.

As political theater, perhaps, this is to be chalked up as a victory for Democrat strategists: at no cost to themselves, the Democrats have won debate points in public opinion.  The Democrat message has carried the mainstream media; the reporters are repeating the DNC's talking points.

Question: when did the Democrat pundits decide to stop denying the accusation of media bias and embrace it instead?  When did they become so proud of their bias that they now champion it as a brilliant strategic victory for the Democrats that their mouthpieces in the media shamelessly act as shills for the administration?

In fact, this is a deceptive and destructive political tactic...concentrating on an extension of a tiny tax reduction, as if it were the be-all and end-all of national economic policy.  Shortening the time period from a single year -- bad enough already, since tax reductions must be permanent to have a stimulative effect -- to a lousy sixty days has robbed any seriousness -- that is, what little there was -- from their argument. 

The politicization of the Democrats' approach is now undeniable; perhaps their new approach will be to propose another idiotic and unhelpful tax cut once a week, just so they can attack the GOP when they rightly oppose it.  There once was a time when Democrats campaigned honestly and fairly.  How far the party of Truman, Stevenson, and JFK has fallen.

A difference in economic visions

Most telling about this battle, however, is the difference in economic visions between the two parties.

Throughout the Obama administration, the Democrats have focused on the first direct recipients of any action.  This "Cash for Clunkers" check will go to this car-buyer; this stimulus bill will employ these road-paving crews.  This loan to an American solar energy joke will keep the wolf from the door for another few months; this sale of Chrysler to an Italian joke will keep Detroit workers on the assembly line for a couple more years.

With every bill and every executive action, the concentration has been on the first recipient of the taxpayers' dollar, without a thought to the consequences to result from such reckless spending.  Republicans screamed at the excesses in 2010 and won landslide victories at both the federal and state levels that midterm, but the Democrats haven't retreated from their economic approach.  On the contrary, they've doubled down.

So today we see the Democrats making the most hay over an extension of a one-sixth reduction in the nation's Social Security collection for yet another year, or even just another two months.  To the economy at large, a temporary increase in workers' salaries by two lousy percent has a minimal stimulative effect.  Any tax cut helps a little, but so tepid an approach can be no more than a rounding error in the economy at large, and it's overshadowed anyway by its effect on the financial health of the Social Security program.  This one-sixth reduction in Social Security receipts causes it to dip into the general fund -- or suck the money from the financial sector through borrowing -- by another couple hundred billion per year.  How is this in anybody's best interest?

In contrast, the Republicans are proposing growth measures, such as permanent reductions in capital gains tax rates, permanent reductions in corporate income taxes, the permanent elimination of the death tax that destroys family businesses, the permanent repeal of Pelosireidian and Obamaczarist regulations that have shuttered factories and driven manufacturing abroad.

The Republican approach helps far fewer people in the first step -- only corporate CFOs and tax accountants will notice many of these changes at first.  It doesn't win millions of votes at the polling places of Detroit, Chicago, New York, and San Francisco.

What these Republican proposals -- more correctly stated, these conservative, capitalist, free-market proposals -- would do is often completely invisible, except through the gathering of statistics over the years.  These proposals are the way to grow an economy.

With economic growth -- factory expansions, business start-ups, increases in sales and purchases -- comes greater employment.  New jobs are created, both in new buildings and in existing ones.  Instead of the employment retreat of the past several years, we will finally enjoy a growth in employment.

Now, what does that mean to the workers (i.e., the voters) themselves?  It might mean that they keep their jobs rather than getting canned.  It might mean that they get a raise rather than treading water for yet another year.

But most likely, it means a return to the way of the '80s and '90s, when general economic growth meant career growth to individuals.  You don't stay a cog on an assembly line; you move up to foreman, to line manager, perhaps even to plant manager.  You don't remain a clerk in a department; you move up to supervisor, then manager, then director.

With those promotions comes a raise -- not the tepid cost-of-living raises of staying in the same job, but the 15%, 20%, even 25% raises that accompany jobs with greater responsibility.

The path to the American dream can never be based on remaining in an entry-level job for an entire working career, however hard the Democrats have tried for a century to pretend that it could.  Companies that give into union demands to overpay for low-level jobs must eventually fold up, or move overseas to more welcoming shores.

The only path to economic advancement for the vast majority of people is through career advancement, through promotions within the same company, or moves to better jobs at other companies.  Such an explosion of new jobs of all kinds requires the kind of economic expansion that only the conservative proposals can enable...the kind of economic expansion that Democrat proposals can only frustrate and postpone.

So the choice between the Democrats and the Republicans of today is not a choice between a 2% tax cut and a 2% tax increase.  It's really a choice between the continued economic stagnation of a Democratic Party zero-sum game and the opportunities for advancement of the free market championed by the right.

It's a choice between Democrats leaving you with two percent more in your pocket and conservatives enabling you to earn twenty percent more from a promotion.

And the conservative approach doesn't end there, because with the free market's expansion, there's another opportunity for yet another 20% raise a few years later, and yet another a few years after that.  With the free market, the sky's the limit.

The right advocates the limitless opportunities enabled by limited government, while the left stubbornly advocates the ever-more bureaucratic distribution of the crumbs dropped by the leviathan and kicked in your direction by the jackboots of its handlers.

When the choice is two percent more for sixty days, or twenty percent more for years, it should be an easy call.  Unfortunately, the news stories are controlled by the people who drank the leviathan's Kool-Aid and accepted the idea that two percent is all there is to discuss.

To win the argument and save the economy, the Republicans must somehow regain control of the debate.

John F. Di Leo is a Customs broker and international trade lecturer.  His columns appear regularly in IllinoisReview.com.

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/12/the_democratic_partys_war_against_promotions.html#ixzz1hMJiby6d
 
Brad Sallows said:
"Mission command" is to military success as the "invisible hand" is to economic prosperity - fortune favours the decentralizers.  But the technocrats (or elites, or intellectuals, or whatever else we should call people who know quite a bit more than most people but quite a bit less than the sum of knowledge of a complex system) will insist on continuing to play the role of the French High Command in 1940, believing that victory in the last war assures them of victory in this one; if they fail, it can only be because they were insufficiently dirigiste.

Except it's not - especially where continued prosperity depends on high levels of education, access to modern infrastructure, etc. A command economy of course fails, but so suggest that there's no role or need for an effective government is essentially nonsense. The invisible hand does much, perhaps, but not everything.
 
And who except fring #occupy members advocates for no government at all? (The rest of #occupy advocate for greatly expanded governent powers).

Certainly not the TEA party movement; they advocate for rolling back government spending. Libertarians? We advocate for government to stick to their responsibilities of protection of people and property, and the neutral arbitration of disputes. Objectivists? the same, only more so (or far more tightly defined).

As Brad points out, putting more and more hands into the mix simply slows down the system and muddles the signals. Going back to military analogies, the highly regimented British offensives in the first part of WWI either failed (Battle of the Somme) or achieved very limited objectives with a great deal of effort, while the Germans devolved command to lower and lower levels with "elastic defense" and culminating with Hutier tactics on the offense. On the tactical and operational levels the allies were badly outmatched, only overwhelming logistical superiority allowed the Allies to achieve victory in 1918. (It is very telling that the Allies considered their situation so bad they were making detailed plans for a Spring 1919 offensive).

We see this in todays economy; the incredible disparity between the rates of job creation between low tax and regulation "Red" and high tax and regulation "Blue" states, or the failure of State sponsored "Green" energy initiatives vs the entirely market driven boom in unconventional oil and natural gas production. Saskatchewan booms while Ontario withers. The invisible hand has indeed wrestled the grasping hand of the bureaucratic state to the ground.
 
Thucydides said:
Saskatchewan booms while Ontario withers. The invisible hand has indeed wrestled the grasping hand of the bureaucratic state to the ground.

Well, insofar as the invisble hand gave Saskatchewan mineral wealth that Ontario doesn't have. The argument breaks down basically immediately thereafter.
 
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