Conflict in Darfur, Sudan - The Mega Thread

[Yrys]

The only concerned that I have for P. Hilton is that she's too much in the news.
She irritates the hell out of me, with her lack of a working cell brain!

Threat to kill two Sudan hostages

Hundreds of thousands of people
need aid in Darfur

The kidnappers of two aid workers in Darfur say they will kill them, unless six French aid employees
convicted of abducting children in Chad are retried. Chad's pardons two years ago for the French aid
staff, three months after they were jailed, sparked public anger.

The Aide Medicale Internationale staff, a French and a Canadian woman, were seized in south Darfur
a week ago. The kidnappers have also threatened to target French interests if their demands are not
met. Armed men kidnapped the pair from their compound in South Darfur's capital, Nyala, about
100km (65 miles) from the border with Chad on 4 April.

'Treated well'

The pair have been named as Canadian Stephanie Joidon and her French colleague, Claire Dubois. 
One of the kidnappers, who named his group as the Falcons for the Liberation of Africa, told Reuters
news agency by telephone: "We demand France open the case of the Zoe's Ark criminals and judge
them through a fair court. "If the French government is not serious in negotiations with us and does
not respond to our request, we will kill the two aid workers."

In 2007, six employees of French humanitarian group Zoe's Ark were convicted of trying to fly more
than 100 children out of Chad to Europe without authorisation. The group, who denied the charges,
were sentenced to eight years of hard labour by a Chadian court, but were pardoned in March 2008
by Chad's president.

The kidnappers allowed one of their captives to speak to media by satellite telephone on Sunday.
Ms Joidon told AFP news agency: "We are being treated well. We do not know where we are. We
wish [our families] much courage. We hope that all ends well."

It was the second kidnapping of aid workers since the International Criminal Court issued an arrest
warrant last month for Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir for alleged war crimes in Darfur. Four
workers with Medecins Sans Frontieres were kidnapped at gunpoint from their Darfur home on 11
March and later released.

Sudan expelled 13 aid agencies immediately after the indictment of Mr Bashir.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Extending Sudan mission, Security Council urges bolstering of north-south peace
UN News Centre, 30 Apr 09
Article link

30 April 2009 –The Security Council today extended the mandate of the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) for another year, urging all parties to fully comply with the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended a 21-year civil war between north and south Sudan.

In a resolution passed unanimously, the 15-member body underscored the “importance of full and expeditious implementation of all elements of the CPA,” as well as the so-called Roadmap to reduce tensions in the disputed Abyei region.

UNMIS was established by the Council in 2005 to support the Agreement, which was signed by the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A).

In his latest report on Sudan, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned that if the CPA collapsed, a humanitarian catastrophe could ensue, and he called on the international community to remain focused on ensuring its implementation, and for Sudan to reinstate banned aid groups ....

Copy of SecGen's latest report (17 Apr 09) on Sudan here (.pdf)

More on link

 

[OldSolduer]

From what I understand, this Bashir fellow has been indicted for war crimes, but will probably never see the inside of a courtroom.
I also understand that the Sudan is a client state of China. What are the chances of the UN having a very positive impact in the Sudan....I would say between slim and none.
Dragons aren't a very friendly creature.

 

[The Bread Guy]

....of the situation in this piece - good reading for anyone who thinks this would be an easier, simpler and more straightforward mission than Afghanistan:

Gone is the neat division between attacker and defender. Instead there is a messy and poisonous plurality of rival groups, tribes and bandits; some co-operate with the government, others with the assorted rebels. Allegiances are fickle, loyalties easily bought. The two original rebel groups have fragmented into at least 20 factions. The International Criminal Court at The Hague has indicted Sudan’s president, Omar al-Bashir, for war crimes in Darfur. But it has also accused three rebel leaders of similar crimes. Even the notorious janjaweed, an Arab militia that served as proxies for the Sudanese army, are now as likely to fight each other or even to turn on the government if they have not been paid on time. It is wrongheaded nowadays simply to tag the rebels as “good” and the Sudanese government forces as “evil”.

 

[The Bread Guy]

...in the form of APCs for UNAMID - this from the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade:

The Honourable Lawrence Cannon, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement regarding the delivery of new Canadian-supplied, state-of-the-art armoured personnel carriers (APCs) to peacekeepers with the African Union-United Nations Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID):

“Canada is pleased that six more new armoured personnel carriers have arrived in Dakar, Senegal, as part of our important contribution to the police units provided to UNAMID by African countries. Senegal has now received 12 APCs, and Burkina Faso and Uganda will also receive six each. Along with the 24 vehicles, we are also providing equipment and basic operator and maintenance training as part of a package valued at over $35 million.

“Canada is committed to strengthening UNAMID’s capacity by investing in security, diplomacy and aid initiatives, and to playing a leadership role in supporting international efforts to establish sustainable peace and long-term stability in Darfur and all of Sudan.”

As these APCs are manufactured in South Africa, Canada is also contributing to African economic and industrial growth.

According to CanWest, the APCs are Gila 4x4s manufactured in South Africa.

Certainly explains this post from February.

More on Canada in Sudan here.

 

[The Bread Guy]

This from the Canadian Press:

Activists from the Canadian Jewish Congress and several other groups lobbied MPs and senators Thursday, urging stronger Canadian action on the issue of Darfur.

They want lawmakers to increase pressure on Sudan to end attacks on civilians in Darfur, and hold free elections and a referendum on secession of the southern part of the country.

They also would like to see Canada offer greater support for the UN mission in the troubled African country.

Benjamin Shinewald, national executive director of the congress, said that doesn't mean Canadian troops.

''We are focusing today on resources such as transport units, a hospital, medical facilities, utility helicopters and that kind of stuff,'' he said.

The delegates also prodded MPs to set up a sub-committee on genocide and crimes against humanity to monitor troubled areas around the world and keep Parliament informed.

As things stand, Shinewald said, vital issues can fall between the cracks of the committee system.

''It can fall to this committee or that committee, it can fall to Foreign Affairs, it can fall to Defence, it can fall to CIDA, it can fall elsewhere,'' he said.

''By unifying genocide and crimes against humanity in one committee, it will create an accountability for parliamentarians and the government of Canada to ensure that we take all the steps we can . . . to end ongoing genocides.'' ....

- edited to add thanks to the mod who moved this - much appreciated! -

 

[sean m]

This situation is probably the most serious in the world right now. Yet if the West makes a move it could put us in the sudan for a long time. All the sudanese government and the Janjaweed would have to do would be to call a Jihad, and soon islamic jihadis would be pouring in there in no time and it would be worse for the people of darfur. but I dot know. they are in need of help

 

[MarkOttawa]

Sean m:  you might try to Google before you put fingers to keypad--things actually seem to have rather improved, with a (fragile) ceasefire with a main rebel group:

Truce raises hopes for peace in Darfur
Rebel group, Sudan government set to sign temporary cease-fire (Feb. 22)
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35525781/ns/world_news-africa/

CAIRO - A truce between Darfur's most powerful rebel group and the government of Sudan could pave the way for finally bringing peace to the war-ravaged region weeks ahead of the first national elections in decades.

Numerous cease-fires and peace deals in this seven-year-old conflict have been short-lived, but this time around increased international pressure and impending elections give this latest initiative a better chance for survival.

Despite the ebbing of violence in the last year [emphasis added], the U.N. estimates that some 300,000 people have died and 2.7 million been displaced since ethnic African tribesman in the vast arid western Darfur region took up arms against the Arab-dominated central government....

Jem Darfur rebels threaten to resume Sudan war
One of the main rebel groups in Sudan's Darfur region has threatened "all-out war" if its leader is arrested. (May 11)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8675454.stm

Sudanese officials have asked Interpol to arrest Justice and Equality Movement (Jem) leader Khalil Ibrahim for planning an attack in Omdurman in 2008.

Jem signed a ceasefire with the government in February but left peace talks earlier this month, claiming the government had launched new raids...

Darfur rebels say 200 killed in clashes with army (May 21)
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gSOV_STjrU8kWVembT9dPizwPnvA

Darfur's most militarised rebel group said on Friday it had killed 200 Sudanese government troops in the western region, but the army denied the toll in the latest fighting to cloud troubled peace talks.

"The Sudanese army fled the villages of Daeen and Shaariya in the eastern part of south Darfur after we killed 200 of their troops" between Wednesday and Thursday, Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) commander Suleiman Sandal told AFP...

Khartoum and the JEM have suspended peace talks since the rebel group accused the Sudanese army of attacking its positions last month....

Mark
Ottawa

 

[sean m]

Sry, ur right I should have looked, this is a good thing we'll see how long it lasts.

Sean m:  you might try to Google before you put fingers to keypad--things actually seem to have rather improved, with a (fragile) ceasefire with a main rebel group:

Truce raises hopes for peace in Darfur
Rebel group, Sudan government set to sign temporary cease-fire (Feb. 22)
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35525781/ns/world_news-africa/


Jem Darfur rebels threaten to resume Sudan war (May 11)
One of the main rebel groups in Sudan's Darfur region has threatened "all-out war" if its leader is arrested.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8675454.stm

Darfur rebels say 200 killed in clashes with army (May 21)
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gSOV_STjrU8kWVembT9dPizwPnvA

Mark
Ottawa

 

[vonGarvin]

Sorry, you're right, I should have looked, this is a good thing.  We'll see how long it lasts.

Sean M
Please note the differences in what you wrote and how I fixed it above for you.  Please use proper grammar when posting on this site. 

Thanks

Technoviking

(As Mentor)

 

[sean m]

I deeply apologize viking, I wa not paying attention  sorry. In terms of this peace agreement, this is great now the rest of the world should focus on increasing economic, political and social stability in the country. Help the country develop which will hopefully lead to some democratic actions from this military government.

Sean M
Please note the differences in what you wrote and how I fixed it above for you.  Please use proper grammar when posting on this site. 

Thanks

Technoviking

(As Mentor)

 

[George Wallace]

Sry, ur right I should have looked, this is a good thing we'll see how long it lasts.

You were warned and you did not listen.

One more step up the ladder.

You are now on RECORDED WARNING.

 

[Marlowe]

Sean m:  you might try to Google before you put fingers to keypad--things actually seem to have rather improved, with a (fragile) ceasefire with a main rebel group:

I wouldn't really say things have improved, rather than they have changed. I apologize in advance, but I have a lot I wanted to relate and little time. This is going to be stream of consciousness and off the top of my head. If anyone would like references, I would be happy to provide later. If I make a mistake with names or acronyms, my apologies.

Right now, the only ceasefire is with the LJM (Liberty and Justice Movement), which is a collection of smaller rebels groups. The Bashir regime tries to pretend that the Sudan Liberation Army has signed the Darfur Peace Accords, but that is actually a splinter, and the SLA-AW (for its leader Abdul Wahid al Nur, who is in exile in Paris) is still fighting.

The main fighting that has been ongoing since the end of the election has been with JEM (Justice and Equality Movement), whose leader--Khalil Ibrahim--has been having a hard time getting back into Sudan after a trip to Egypt. Chad--which used to support JEM and whose president is actually part of the same tribe as Ibrahim and the majority of JEM supporters--ripped up Ibrahim's passport and refused to allow him to transit through Chad into Darfur. Ibrahim got back to Libya, but is having some issues getting back into the fight.

Things are looking bad for JEM since Sudan and Chad reconciled. Chad used to support and supply JEM. Recently, the Sudan Armed Forces have taken Jebel Marra, a previous JEM stronghold. Qatar and the UN mediators want to get the peace talks in Doha restarted by June, but JEM has consistently said it won't return to the peace talks until the SAF pulls out of Darfur and there is some stability in the region.

I can't really say I blame them, as ceasefires in Darfur last about as long as it takes someone to get someone else in the crosshairs. When that happens, JEM or SLA-AW blames the SAF, and they blame the rebels.

And its the civilians that pay the price. Now the UN mission in Chad (part of MINURCAT) will be pulling out. Chad has promised its military will protect the refugee and IDP camps, but I figure that's worth less than the air used in making the promise. Most of those refugees are from the Darfur fighting, but some are from Chad's own internal issues.

It's a mess. And that's not even getting into the situation in Southern Sudan--especially Unity State and Jonglei right now--or the East.

Big. Foxtrot. Mess.

 

[sean m]

Thank you for that information Marlowe it did seem to good to be true. A military regime like that is not going to bow to demand for a peace agreement, when they are not facing tough enough opposition from the rest of the world. This situation seems that it can only be solved with military intervention. The dangerous thing is that I do not believe the people outside of Darfur dislike their government that much. If the outside world were to go in, as I stated prior, all the government of Sudan would have to do would be to call a Jihad then Jihadis from all over the world would come, we would be facing them, the sudanese army probobablywith the majority of support from the population, the Janajaweed and even foreign nations. If we were to go to war, it seems it would be best to do what we did with the Northern Alliance and fight with the various movement in Darfur against the Sudanese government.

I wouldn't really say things have improved, rather than they have changed. I apologize in advance, but I have a lot I wanted to relate and little time. This is going to be stream of consciousness and off the top of my head. If anyone would like references, I would be happy to provide later. If I make a mistake with names or acronyms, my apologies.

Right now, the only ceasefire is with the LJM (Liberty and Justice Movement), which is a collection of smaller rebels groups. The Bashir regime tries to pretend that the Sudan Liberation Army has signed the Darfur Peace Accords, but that is actually a splinter, and the SLA-AW (for its leader Abdul Wahid al Nur, who is in exile in Paris) is still fighting.

The main fighting that has been ongoing since the end of the election has been with JEM (Justice and Equality Movement), whose leader--Khalil Ibrahim--has been having a hard time getting back into Sudan after a trip to Egypt. Chad--which used to support JEM and whose president is actually part of the same tribe as Ibrahim and the majority of JEM supporters--ripped up Ibrahim's passport and refused to allow him to transit through Chad into Darfur. Ibrahim got back to Libya, but is having some issues getting back into the fight.

Things are looking bad for JEM since Sudan and Chad reconciled. Chad used to support and supply JEM. Recently, the Sudan Armed Forces have taken Jebel Marra, a previous JEM stronghold. Qatar and the UN mediators want to get the peace talks in Doha restarted by June, but JEM has consistently said it won't return to the peace talks until the SAF pulls out of Darfur and there is some stability in the region.

I can't really say I blame them, as ceasefires in Darfur last about as long as it takes someone to get someone else in the crosshairs. When that happens, JEM or SLA-AW blames the SAF, and they blame the rebels.

And its the civilians that pay the price. Now the UN mission in Chad (part of MINURCAT) will be pulling out. Chad has promised its military will protect the refugee and IDP camps, but I figure that's worth less than the air used in making the promise. Most of those refugees are from the Darfur fighting, but some are from Chad's own internal issues.

It's a mess. And that's not even getting into the situation in Southern Sudan--especially Unity State and Jonglei right now--or the East.

Big. Foxtrot. Mess.

 

[Marlowe]

The dangerous thing is that I do not believe the people outside of Darfur dislike their government that much.

Do you mean the people of Sudan outside of Darfur? Because Arman, the SPLM candidate in the North got around 27% of the vote for president . . . and he had boycotted the election! Granted, the SPLM (Northern Sector) had boycotted too late to be removed from the actual ballot, but still, 27% in a thrown fight that one has boycotted ain't too bad.

But seriously, outside of Khartoum State and Northern State, no one in Sudan really likes the government all that much. The pastoral Arabic tribes in the Darfur and Kordofan states back the government because the government pays them. Dafur in the west, the Eastern states like River Nile and Red Sea, and Southern Sudan all oppose the government. Except for Darfur, the Bashir regime has signed peace deals with everyone for now. Southern Sudan will likely secede after the referendum in 2011, and the East is calm for now, but like Darfur, all it takes is a straw to break that camel's back.

If the outside world were to go in, as I stated prior, all the government of Sudan would have to do would be to call a Jihad then Jihadis from all over the world would come, we would be facing them, the sudanese army probobablywith the majority of support from the population, the Janajaweed and even foreign nations.

I would strongly disagree with this.

Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda were all supportive of the SPLA during the civil wars--the first three training and supplying until the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005. While Chad and the Bashir regime have papered over their dislike of each other, that's simply because national interests intersect--Chad wants Sudan to stop supporting insurgents inside Chad, and Sudan wants the same of Chad.

Egypt is Khartoum's big buddy right now mostly because Egypt wants a)stability in the region and b) and ally against the other Nile Basin nations that are looking to implement a new Nile Basin Initiative. What Egypt does NOT want, is a fundamentalist Islamic nation on its doorstep. It's had problems enough with that in the past. Back in the early 90s, Egypt and Sudan were in the middle of a cold war because Bashir came to power in an Islamist coup d'etat. Sudan was even implicated in an assassination plot in Egypt. If Bashir tried importing radical Islamists, his only real ally in the region would be seriously considering popping a cap in his backside.

Bashir can't go Jihad because everyone--and I mean everyone--would either be sending in troops, supporting the 85% if the nation that does not like Khartoum, or providing bases for any international force. Bashir is not stupid. He's moved away from his Islamist base. His National Islamist Front is now the National Congress Party.

If it comes down to a world-wide consensus that we need to militarily invade Sudan, Bashir will cut a deal. And we'll cut a deal with him, because that's what we do.

Besides, China will veto any UN Security Council resolution against Sudan. They don't want anything getting in the way of that sweet, sweet oil!

 

[Monsoon]

Marlowe - are you with SAFARI or SATURN? Which TS?

Outside of Gezira and Northern no one much cares for the NCP, but those are overwhelmingly the largest centers of registered voters. Thus was ever the problem in Sudan. I believe the NCP's 67% victory was legit - they're popular for their economic development work. I don't buy the SPLM's 98% victory in the south.

Bashir was a lukewarm jihadist at best. Now that Turabi's on the fringes politically, he has no reason to keep pressing that button.

As for China, they're diversified their interests into the South now. Guess who's building hydroelectric dams there now? I don't think they're even necessaryily hung up on the oil, which is of low quality and limited in supply. They just want a market for their products in 20 years.

 

[sean m]

excellent post, really great job! you have a lot covered actually everything. \great refernce to \China and the security council.  I forgot that the janjaweed were only paid. So would you suggest intervention? It seems  that Bashir is in a weak state right now,  does not make sense why there is notenough pressure on him.

Do you mean the people of Sudan outside of Darfur? Because Arman, the SPLM candidate in the North got around 27% of the vote for president . . . and he had boycotted the election! Granted, the SPLM (Northern Sector) had boycotted too late to be removed from the actual ballot, but still, 27% in a thrown fight that one has boycotted ain't too bad.

But seriously, outside of Khartoum State and Northern State, no one in Sudan really likes the government all that much. The pastoral Arabic tribes in the Darfur and Kordofan states back the government because the government pays them. Dafur in the west, the Eastern states like River Nile and Red Sea, and Southern Sudan all oppose the government. Except for Darfur, the Bashir regime has signed peace deals with everyone for now. Southern Sudan will likely secede after the referendum in 2011, and the East is calm for now, but like Darfur, all it takes is a straw to break that camel's back.
I would strongly disagree with this.

Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda were all supportive of the SPLA during the civil wars--the first three training and supplying until the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005. While Chad and the Bashir regime have papered over their dislike of each other, that's simply because national interests intersect--Chad wants Sudan to stop supporting insurgents inside Chad, and Sudan wants the same of Chad.

Egypt is Khartoum's big buddy right now mostly because Egypt wants a)stability in the region and b) and ally against the other Nile Basin nations that are looking to implement a new Nile Basin Initiative. What Egypt does NOT want, is a fundamentalist Islamic nation on its doorstep. It's had problems enough with that in the past. Back in the early 90s, Egypt and Sudan were in the middle of a cold war because Bashir came to power in an Islamist coup d'etat. Sudan was even implicated in an assassination plot in Egypt. If Bashir tried importing radical Islamists, his only real ally in the region would be seriously considering popping a cap in his backside.

Bashir can't go Jihad because everyone--and I mean everyone--would either be sending in troops, supporting the 85% if the nation that does not like Khartoum, or providing bases for any international force. Bashir is not stupid. He's moved away from his Islamist base. His National Islamist Front is now the National Congress Party.

If it comes down to a world-wide consensus that we need to militarily invade Sudan, Bashir will cut a deal. And we'll cut a deal with him, because that's what we do.

Besides, China will veto any UN Security Council resolution against Sudan. They don't want anything getting in the way of that sweet, sweet oil!

 

[sean m]

Great post as well! What do you think should be done about darfur?

Marlowe - are you with SAFARI or SATURN? Which TS?

Outside of Gezira and Northern no one much cares for the NCP, but those are overwhelmingly the largest centers of registered voters. Thus was ever the problem in Sudan. I believe the NCP's 67% victory was legit - they're popular for their economic development work. I don't buy the SPLM's 98% victory in the south.

Bashir was a lukewarm jihadist at best. Now that Turabi's on the fringes politically, he has no reason to keep pressing that button.

As for China, they're divested their interests into the South now. Guess who's building hydroelectric dams there now? I don't think they're even necessaryily hung up on the oil, which is of low quality and limited in supply. They just want a market for their products in 20 years.

 

[Edward Campbell]

...
As for China, they're divested their interests into the South now. Guess who's building hydroelectric dams there now? I don't think they're even necessaryily hung up on the oil, which is of low quality and limited in supply. They just want a market for their products in 20 years.

Quite right, China appears, to me, to have a rather long view of Africa. They recognize significant problems and equally significant opportunities there.

It's important to understand that the Chinese practice what they preach: non-interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states. It is, literally, drilled in to policy makers and diplomats because it is a touchstone of China's diplomatic defensive strategy: they reject any and all Western interference or criticism of anything happening inside China. Do unto others, etc.

 

[Marlowe]

Marlowe - are you with SAFARI or SATURN? Which TS?

I'm actually not in Sudan and I can't claim the honour of wearing a uniform.

Outside of Gezira and Northern no one much cares for the NCP, but those are overwhelmingly the largest centers of registered voters. Thus was ever the problem in Sudan. I believe the NCP's 67% victory was legit - they're popular for their economic development work. I don't buy the SPLM's 98% victory in the south.

I don't buy it either, but I don't think the victory was completely "legit." The NEC has already admitted that the video of ballot stuffing on Youtube was, in fact, in Red Sea State and is now under investigation. They've admitted to election irregularities (which is more than the SPLM did in the South). I don't think we can call either election, North or South, legit, but I think the NCP was a bit more subtle about it.

Now that Turabi's on the fringes politically, he has no reason to keep pressing that button.

Yeah, and now Al-Turabi has been arrested, and the PCP's newspaper has been shut down. I would argee with you, Bashir is done with that. It served its purpose, now it's just getting in his way.

As for China, they're diversified their interests into the South now. Guess who's building hydroelectric dams there now? I don't think they're even necessaryily hung up on the oil, which is of low quality and limited in supply. They just want a market for their products in 20 years.

I think they do like the oil, but I totally agree that they are in it for the infrastructure programs, and that they are in it for the long haul. They are extremely pragmatic. Whoever wants to deal, they will deal.

That's why they are winning over Africa.