• Thanks for stopping by. Logging in to a registered account will remove all generic ads. Please reach out with any questions or concerns.

Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

This story, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from Bloomberg.com, is a couple of weeks old but still pertinent:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPxLMB78_Xpc
Corruption in Chinese Banks to Go On for Decades, Auditor Says

By William Mellor and Le-Min Lim

March 22 (Bloomberg) -- China's financial watchdog, Auditor- general Li Jinhua, has a mixed message for the investors who've spent $74 billion on shares in his country's banks since 2001.

The good news, says the man nicknamed ``Iron Face'' for his perceived incorruptibility and because he rarely smiles in public, is that his campaign against corruption, embezzlement and waste has helped to improve banking practices in the past seven years.

The bad news: It may be a couple of decades more before the banks' management is acceptable by Western standards.

``It would be naive to think that once these state-owned banks are listed publicly they won't suffer any operational problems,'' says Li, 63, whose position at the head of China's National Audit Office gives him cabinet minister rank. ``It might take a whole generation to get these banks into reasonable shape.''

After three decades of economic growth averaging 10 percent a year, China's boom is still precarious, as the 9.2 percent plunge in mainland Chinese shares on Feb. 27, the beginning of a $3.3 trillion global stock selloff, shows. China's financial institutions hold $161 billion of bad loans, according to the country's central bank. Since 1999, Li and his 80,000 auditors have uncovered $6.4 billion worth of irregularities at state-owned banks.

Olympics, Dam

While Li is making financial institutions his priority, he's also scrutinizing the accounts of China's other big state-owned enterprises. And he and his team are keeping an eye on the $34 billion of spending on next year's Olympic Games in Beijing; construction projects such as the $22 billion Three Gorges Dam, the world's biggest hydroelectric project; government departments; and even the Communist Party itself.

Li reports directly to Premier Wen Jiabao, who said at a March 16 news conference that corruption cases were increasing innumber and gravity, and involving more senior figures. "No matter how high-ranking the officials involved, we'll make sure they are brought to justice," Wen said.

Li doesn't flinch at taking on China's biggest state-owned companies. On his to-audit list this year are China Everbright Bank, which is controlled by the State Council, China's Cabinet; state oil company China Petrochemical Corp., or Sinopec; and insurers China Reinsurance Co. and PICC Holding Co. He also plans to view the books of the four asset management companies China set up in 1999 to clean up the big banks' nonperforming loans and to audit four unidentified heads of government-controlled companies.

``When pressure comes on in China, it's serious pressure,'' says Allen Blewitt, 55, chief executive officer of the London-based Association of Chartered and Certified Accountants. ``A lesser person would have crumbled. He's vigorous, independent and outspoken.''

`Sunshine Cures Diseases'

Li says one of his most-effective weapons is exposing wrongdoers publicly. ``We try to make everything transparent,'' he says. ``Sunshine cures diseases.'' Those sent to trial face more than shame: The country's courts can impose life prison sentences or even the death penalty for corruption.

The ills are widespread, Li says. The National Audit Office estimates that his auditors have exposed 1.74 trillion yuan ($225 billion) in misspent funds over the past 20 years. In 2006 alone, audits of 7,000 state-owned companies uncovered 1 billion yuan worth of abuses, Li said at a meeting of 200 of his top auditors in Beijing in January.

``The numbers Li quotes are scary,'' says Blewitt, whose group awarded the auditor-general its global prize for achievement last year. ``On those figures, governments would fall in a Western system.''

Discrepancies

In a two-hour interview conducted in Chinese, Li says his team unearthed financial discrepancies that ultimately led to the downfall of one of China's leading bankers, Liu Jinbao, and one of the country's most-powerful politicians, Shanghai Communist Party chief Chen Liangyu, a member of the Politburo, the country's highest policy-making body.

Li's auditors were also called in to investigate Liu Zhihua, a vice mayor of Beijing in charge of Olympic construction.

Liu Jinbao, 54, former CEO of Bank of China's publicly listed Hong Kong unit, was given a suspended death sentence in 2005 for embezzling $1.8 million and for being unable to account for almost $2 million in personal assets.

Shanghai Party Secretary Chen, 59, who's accused of misusing pension funds, and Beijing Vice Mayor Liu, who is said by the official news agency, Xinhua, to have taken millions of yuan in bribes, were both fired. Chen and Liu could not be reached for comment.

Li also cited two other top-level bank corruption cases as examples of the type of graft his auditors have to fight. They involved Zhang Enzhao, 60, former CEO of China Construction Bank Corp., who was jailed in November for 15 years for accepting 4.9 million yuan in bribes, and Wang Xuebing, 57, who had been president of both Bank of China and China Construction Bank and was sentenced to 12 years in jail in 2003 for taking what Xinhua described as millions of yuan in bribes.

`He's a Hero'

China's citizens back Li's efforts to root out corruption. ``I think he's a hero,'' says Fu Jie, 40, an office manager in Beijing. ``Given the pressure he must be under, he's shown a lot of courage.''

The wealth gap between the booming cities of eastern China and the countryside -- where 200 million people still live on less than $1 a day -- has widened, according to the World Bank. Last year, there were about 72,000 protests involving more than 100 people, according to the party's Central Committee for Public Security.

Still, in a one-party state, it can be hard to differentiate between a genuine corruption drive and a political purge, says May Yan, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Moody's Investors Service. ``Li seems to be one of the objective ones, but the politics are always difficult to see through,'' she says.

No. 2 in Bribes

Graft is so bad it could even destabilize China's 58-year-old communist regime, says Steve Vickers, CEO of International Risk Ltd., a Hong Kong-based consulting firm. ``If corruption continues unchecked, it's going to bring the roof down on this government,'' Vickers says.

Transparency International, a Berlin-based advocacy group, ranks China as second only to India in its annual bribe payers' index. Almost 100,000 party members were disciplined last year for bribe taking and other rule breaches, the party announced in February.

Looking relaxed in a brown jacket over a gray sports shirt, Li says he's undeterred by political pressures. ``We have experienced resistance from auditees because we have made many government departments' private interests suffer,'' says Li, who's 5 feet 6 inches (1.7 meters) tall. ``I am not scared. The constitution has given me the power to do what I have done.''

Illegal Acts

Li says his office forwards to China's courts about 10 percent of the 2,500 corruption cases they deal with each year. Bank employees also could be caught and reported to the police by the China Banking Regulatory Commission, a financial watchdog established in 2003 under the leadership of former Bank of China Chairman Liu Mingkang.

At the auditors' meeting in January, Li said his employees last year had uncovered 37 illegal acts involving 55 people at Bank of China, China Merchants Bank Co. and Shanghai-based Bank of Communications Ltd. -- all of which are listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Li's office declined to disclose further details.

The three banks say they haven't yet been officially notified of the auditor-general's findings, so they say they can't comment.

The misappropriation of vast amounts of money from China's banks has polarized investors, says Arthur Lau, who helps manage $1 trillion at JF Asset Management Ltd., a unit of JPMorgan Asset Management, in Hong Kong.

Bank Shares Soar

``There are two types of investor,'' says Lau, who declined to identify his holdings. ``Some will stay away from this sector because of the risk and also the valuation. But others can't get enough of it. I hope and hope there will be fewer and fewer of these incidents going forward, but the accounting system is still not up to par, and you may see some anomalies.''

So far, the risk has paid off for investors prepared to bet on China's leaky banks. Shares of China's biggest lender, Beijing- based Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., in which Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Allianz SE and American Express Co. have a combined 10 percent stake, soared 41 percent to 4.34 Hong Kong dollars on March 21, from HK$3.07 on Oct. 26, when the company sold US$22 billion of shares.

Industrial & Commercial Bank is now the world's 9th-biggest company by market value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Since their IPOs, beginning in mid-2005, shares of Bank of China have risen 31 percent; Bank of Communications, 215 percent; and China Construction, 89 percent, as of March 21.

Impoverished Childhood

Li has traveled a bumpy road on his journey to cabinet minister and custodian of China's vulnerable financial assets.

He was born in Rudong, a coastal township of 60,000 in Jiangsu province, 100 kilometers (60 miles) north of Shanghai, in 1943, when most of China was under Japanese occupation and much of the rest was controlled by the Nationalist Party government of Chiang Kai-shek.

The son of an impoverished pastry cook, Li says his fortunes changed when Mao Zedong's Communist Party came to power in 1949, enabling him to finish his schooling with government support.

In 1963, Li won a place at Beijing's elite Central Institute of Finance and Economics, later renamed the Central University of Finance and Economics. Among his contemporaries were Jin Renqing, China's current finance minister, and Dai Xianglong, former People's Bank of China governor and now mayor of Tianjin, China's fourth- largest city.

Top Student

Even amid such company, Li stood out, says Wang Peizhen, 89, who taught finance at the time and still gives tutorials at the university.

``It wasn't easy to get into this institute,'' she says. ``It picked 100 students from among tens of thousands. And then, every year, the faculty would pick seven or eight of the most-outstanding students in the graduate class to stay behind as teaching staff. Li was one of those.''

Wang recalls him turning up at the start of school in a gray cotton jacket, which he wore every day. ``He was among the most down-to-earth students I had that year,'' she says. ``He had no political backing -- none at all. He gained what he did purely through hard work.''

Wang says that in 1966, as the Cultural Revolution loomed, some students began to turn on her and other teachers. Li, who had joined the party in 1965, never took part, she says.

The Cultural Revolution prevented Li from taking up the teaching post in Beijing, Wang says. After graduating in the fall of 1966 with the highest grade of ``excellent'' (the others were ``good,'' ``fair'' and ``fail''), Li was dispatched to the mountainous Shaanxi province, 1,000 kilometers away, to teach at the Northwest Institute of Finance and Economics.

First Job

In 1971, with the Cultural Revolution still raging, he became an accountant at aircraft factory number 572 in Shaanxi, where he worked for the next 14 years, rising to become the factory's director. In 1978, two years after Mao's death, Deng Xiaoping came to power in China.

Deng began introducing a free-market economy, helping spark China's current economic boom. In 1983, Deng also reintroduced the government audits that Mao had allowed to lapse. Auditing is a Chinese tradition going back 3,000 years to the Western Zhou dynasty.

In 1985, Li became deputy auditor general -- a job he says he was given because of his finance training. At the time, he says, he knew little about government auditing. ``Now I know this profession much better,'' he says.

So much so that in 1998, Premier Zhu Rongji appointed Li head of the National Audit Office. Since then, Li has been raising its public profile. That year, it held a rare press conference. In 1999, Li published parts of his report to the standing committee of the National People's Congress, China's parliament.

Iron Mask Slips

In 2004, in a China Central Television poll, viewers voted him the country's economic personality of the year, beating People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan and Yang Yuanqing, then CEO of Lenovo Group Ltd., the technology company that had just acquired the personal computer business of International Business Machines Corp.

During the live presentation, Li's iron mask slipped. He wept as he told viewers he didn't deserve the award because he could have achieved nothing without his 80,000-strong team spread across China.

``The television channel showed a film of how difficult some of the auditors' working conditions were,'' Li recalls. ``There was one whose mother was dying at home, but the auditor was still working in the field. I was very much moved by that.''

Li, who keeps a miniature, red hammer-and-sickle party flag on his file-stacked desk and who does calligraphy in his spare time, says he's immune to political pressure. ``I am a person who always practices in accord with the law and sticks to principles,'' says Li, whose office in Beijing's Xicheng district is half an hour's drive from Zhongnanhai, the walled compound adjacent to the Forbidden City where China's political leaders live. ``No one can tell me what to do,'' Li says.

Confronting Ministries

Among his targets are other ministries. Since 1999, Li has exposed officials of the National Development and Reform Commission, China's powerful planning ministry, for diverting funds to buy 9.6 million yuan worth of commercial housing. He's also uncovered evidence that the sports ministry was doing the same thing with funds intended for the Olympics, according to Xinhua.

The roads authority, Xinhua says, spent $205 million on bonuses, conferences and other indulgences when the money should have gone to farmers for land requisition. Spokesmen for the sports ministry and the Ministry of Communications, which oversees roads, declined to comment. The planning commission didn't return phone calls seeking comment.

Li's January report said he and his auditors had uncovered 5.4 billion yuan of state budget funds misused by 48 central government departments and their affiliates in 2006. He added that his team had audited 34,000 government and party officials and handed over 116 suspects to judicial departments.

Free Rein

The government knows there would be international repercussions if it were to try to rein in Li, says Blewitt of the accountants' group. ``If someone started sitting on the auditor- general, it would destroy investor confidence,'' he says. ``At the highest level, they have decided that they have got to give this guy his head.''

Even when China's state-owned enterprises are listed on the world's stock exchanges, Li and his team still conduct audits. That's because, in most cases, the majority of the shares remain in Chinese government hands, Li says.

That's good news for foreign investors, says Templeton Asset Management Ltd.'s Mark Mobius, who oversees $30 billion in emerging- market shares, including Chinese state-owned stocks. ``We feel a little more comfortable with the Chinese state-owned companies since not only do you have independent auditors looking at the books, but you also have the government investigative and monitoring agencies looking at them,'' says Mobius, who's based in Singapore. ``It is wonderful what they are doing.''

`Continuous Battle'

Mobius says he's not worried by Li's prediction that it could take a generation to clean up the banks. ``We know it will be a continuous battle,'' he says.

China's banks began running up hundreds of billions of dollars of bad loans in the 1980s, in large part because the government forced them to lend money to prop up insolvent state enterprises. Local Communist Party committees approved the appointment of branch managers. Risk management and fraud detection were nonexistent.

In 1998, then President Jiang Zemin and Premier Zhu decided to clean up the banks as part of a plan to sell shares and attract Western strategic investors. That year, Li says, his audit team examined two of the four biggest banks.

They found that of 600 billion yuan of bad loans, only 58 percent could be blamed on inherent business risk. ``The remaining 42 percent was due to the improper management of the banks,'' Li says.

Bank Bailout

Since then, the government has spent 3.5 trillion yuan bailing out and recapitalizing the banks, according to New York- based rating company Moody's Investors Service.

Starting in 2001, China raised $21.4 billion by selling minority stakes in some banks to international financial institutions such as Bank of America Corp., HSBC Holdings Plc, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, UBS AG and Goldman Sachs, as well as Singapore government-owned investment company Temasek Holdings Pte. Since 2002, Chinese banks have sold $52.4 billion of shares in public offerings.

Wang Zhaowen, Bank of China's Beijing-based spokesman, says earlier fraud and embezzlement scandals have hurt his bank's image.

Bank of China

The biggest to come to light so far: embezzlement over a nine- year period from 1992 to 2001 of $482 million from a Bank of China branch in Kaiping, a small town in Guangdong province, about 110 kilometers west of Hong Kong. Three Kaiping managers were arrested in the U.S. in 2002 and 2004. One, Yu Zhendong, 44, pleaded guilty to racketeering and was returned to China, where he was jailed for 12 years, according to Xinhua.

The two others, Xu Chaofan and Xu Guojun, remain in jail in Las Vegas, awaiting trial on charges of racketeering, money laundering and visa fraud. In a jailhouse interview with Bloomberg News, they denied the charges and claimed they were framed.

In January, a Hong Kong couple, Hui Yat-Sing and Wong Suet-Mui, both 48, were convicted by a Hong Kong court of money laundering in connection with the case. The pair, who denied the charges and planned to appeal, were jailed for six and a half years.

Bank of China wrote off the $482 million, according to its share sale prospectus. The 2003 arrest of Liu Jinbao happened after the 2002 listing of Bank of China's Hong Kong unit, which Liu presided over, but before the sale of shares in the mainland parent.

Hurting the Brand

``It really affected the Bank of China brand,'' spokesman Wang, 53, says. ``But after our banking reform and restructuring, we have plugged the holes in our system and installed strict accountability, so that should anyone think of committing these crimes, they really have to consider the costs of doing so.''

One of the National Audit Office's longest-running assignments has been going through the books of the Beijing Organizing Committee for the 2008 Olympic Games and the government bodies and companies that have been building the stadiums and other construction projects that are transforming China's capital.

The Standing Committee of the Beijing Municipal People's Congress last June fired Liu Zhihua, the Beijing deputy mayor in charge of overseeing major Olympic construction, and stripped him of his party membership for taking millions of yuan in bribes, ``depraved behavior'' and obtaining project contracts for his mistress, according to Xinhua.

After the Olympics

Li says his investigations so far have found that Liu's alleged crimes had nothing to do with the Games and that Olympic organizers are in the clear. Liu could not be reached for comment.

Li, who turns 65 in July 2008, says he won't start thinking about retirement until then. That means he could be around to audit the final receipts after the Olympic Games end in August of that year.

Until then, those who cross paths with Li -- even old friends -- had better keep their books in order. Guo Yucheng, head of the finance and economic secretariat at Li's alma mater, still recalls the day six years ago when Li was invited back to give a speech. Afterward, instead of sending a note of thanks for the invitation, Li sent his auditors in to check the books, as part of a broader nationwide audit of educational institutions. ``To everybody's surprise, the poorest department was the department of accounting,'' Li says with one of the broad smiles he never shows in public. For once, the iron-faced auditor didn't find any wrongdoing.

To contact the reporters on this story: William Mellor in Beijing at wmellor@bloomberg.net Le-Min Lim in Hong Kong at lmlim@bloomberg.net

A couple of points I think are important:

• The road to prosperity is still full of potholes and the ‘car’ could come a cropper;

• The Chinese administration is well aware of this and have, in the person of Mr. Li, started remedial action; and

• Mr. Li enjoys some of the same status as Ms. Fraser does here – ’China's citizens back Li's efforts to root out corruption. ``I think he's a hero,'' says Fu Jie, 40, an office manager in Beijing. ``Given the pressure he must be under, he's shown a lot of courage.''’



 
E.R. Campbell said:
Mods: please consider merging ’China to strengthen military’ and ’China vs Russia with this thread.  I think they are related and there is, indeed, some overlap.

Perhaps the resultant ‘Chinese super-thread’ could be named something like “China: Friend or Foe?”

Any objections from other members?

Thanks

IMHO, there are many issues surrounding mainland China and simply putting them into one thread just doesn't cut it for me. Issues involving Chinese politics such as political dissidents, the Taiwan issue, the Tibet issue, the Xinjiang issue, and Political Reform could under one thread. Issues that deal with PLA defense procurements, NORINCO's advances, the Shanghai Six/Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the current Chinese Naval buildup thread could also go under one thread.

Other members might disagree since it's all the same to them, but I feel all these China issues merit more than just one superthread.
 
Chinese power is built on a house of cards. They barely require mention at all. Too many people want to puff the Chinese up into a superpower when they are nothing more than a regional power with nuclear weapons. Gotta keep your eye on the ball - radical islam.
 
tomahawk6 said:
Chinese power is built on a house of cards. They barely require mention at all. Too many people want to puff the Chinese up into a superpower when they are nothing more than a regional power with nuclear weapons. Gotta keep your eye on the ball - radical islam.

With all due respect, you probably mean "they are NOT YET a superpower", but from the current rate their economy is growing, they will be a superpower within the next 50 years, provided the Chinese Communist Party can keep stability. During my study abroad program in Beijing, a  Bei Da professor named Dr.  Pan Wei once lectured to us that he foresaw Chinese GDP per capita and standard of living reaching on par with US incomes and standard of living by the mid 2020s. And mind you, this guy is considered to be more of a moderate. He advocates that in order to keep power without sacrificing economic growth, that the Beijing govt. must follow a system similar to that of Singapore, which also has a One-Party System as well as a prosperous economy. Dr. Pan Wei advocated what was called a "Rule of Law Regime", which called for the following features:

1.) A one party-system which had  a civil service which advanced through Merit
2.) an independent anti-corruption agency like those agencies both Singapore (the CPIB) and Hong Kong (the ICAC) has
3.) though it was a one party system, there was a separate judiciary

Singapore's CPIB info
http://www.cpib.gov.sg/aboutus.htm

Hong Kong's ICAC
http://www.cpib.gov.sg/aboutus.htm

Dr. Pan Wei's "Rule of Law Regime"
http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/content/qy59mu0p3fpfqx3j/

Source: Pan, Wei (2003). Toward a Consultative Rule of Law Regime in China
In Journal of Contemporary China, 12(34), pp. 3-43.
Location: Journal of Contemporary China

Thus China's CCP wanted to use Singapore's People Action Party as an example of how a one-party regime could survive in a modern world where the trend was thought to be going toward multiparty, liberal democracies.

Thus, the CCP is observing and adapting, while ensuring that nothing interferes with the nation's continuining economic prosperity. The large amount of corruption in China's govt. may indeed make that govt. a "house of cards", but if the CCP consolidates like Singapore's PAP did under all those decades of prosperity under Premier Lee Kuan Yew, then the CCP may yet survive and make China a superpower.  The fact that the Chinese also makes a large portion of Singapore's current population makes their system more attractive to Beijing, since it proves it can work with Chinese people.

(One more thing...Dr. Pan Wei obviously profits from his political consultation to the govt., since he drove an Mercedes SLK to class)

 
T6 - I don't like to indulge overmuch in conspiracy theories but I don't necessarily consider China and Radical Islam as disconnected.  I don't see a central organizing principle within radical islam, a clearly defined centre of gravity.  Osama and Co in caves don't strike me as having the necessary structures in place to keep the heat on.  

By contrast, while I don't see China launching any major invasions in the near term (and that includes Taiwan), I do see an opportunity for them to continue to do everything possible to slow down the West and simultaneously manage their internal problems by making the external world as unattractive as possible.

Back to Suvorov's "The Liberators".  In 1968 Czechoslovakia wanted to leave Moscow's orbit.  So did Romania.  Only Czechoslovakia was invaded.  As Suvorov put it - nobody was trying to defect from Russia to Romania.  The more "democracy" looks to mean insecurity and bloodshed the less attractive it may become to those folks arguing for it in China......and elsewhere.  

While I don't think China is orchestrating world events I do think it might find advantage in outcomes that are contrary to the West's notions of successful outcomes.  And I think they will find fellow travellers in many parts of the world.

Therefore a China-centric prism tends to bring a lot of issues into a different focus that might be worthwhile noting.

Cheers.
 
China's economic success is tied to the export market. Anything that hurts China's trading partners hurts China. Radical islam is not exactly business friendly and would ban many of the goods that China makes. China could insulate itself a bit by building up its domestic markets but its foreign capital that China needs.
 
tomahawk6 said:
China's economic success is tied to the export market. Anything that hurts China's trading partners hurts China. Radical islam is not exactly business friendly and would ban many of the goods that China makes. China could insulate itself a bit by building up its domestic markets but its foreign capital that China needs.

True.

Apparently they Chinese realize that as well- that they need foreign capital. Their Foreign Exchange Reserves just surpassed those of Japan recently, as the ff. articles show:

http://www.ftchinese.com/sc/story_english.jsp?id=001007745

http://www.hangseng.com/hsb/eng/mar/eu/hsem/m1005e.pdf

And note that they even in the late 1990s, their foreign exchange reserves were substantial enough for them to buy the plethora of foreign equipment they now possess, including those French-made Crotale SAM launchers and Dauphin ASW Helos their PLAN Frigates have aboard, as well as those 8 Kilo Class Submarines and over 150+ Su-27s/J-11s from the Russians.

In the book Against All Enemies, Richard Clarke recounts that as he was giving Bush's cabinet a briefing about Al-Qaeda before 9/11, Clarke remembers Rumsfeld as saying why are we "swatting flies" like Al Qaeda when there were bigger potential adversaries to watch out for at the time, such as China and Iran. One can infer that Clarke quoted Rumsfeld as saying that since he wanted to make the point that Bush's cabinet- the "Vulcans" as Brookings figure Ivo Daalder calls them- never took Al-Qaeda seriously before 9/11 and even after it, since they only saw nation-states as Iraq or Iran as the biggest threat rather than sub-state actors like Al-Qaeda, which is probably one of the reasons they rushed to attack Iraq- but that is the subject of another thread.

Rumsfeld may be gone now and the current US administration discredited for its handling of Iraq, but just because radical Islam is the current enemy doesn't mean one should dismiss China altogether as another credible threat to the US/West just because they are just as dependent on international trade as we are.


 
CougarShark said:
In the book "Against All Enemies", Richard Clarke recounts that as he was giving Bush's cabinet a briefing about Al-Qaeda before 9/11, Clarke remembers Rumsfeld as saying why are we "swatting flies" like Al Qaeda when there were bigger potential adversaries to watch out for at the time, such as China and Iran. One can infer that Clarke quoted Rumsfeld as saying that since he wanted to make the point that Bush's cabinet- the "Vulcans" as Ivo Daalder calls them- never took Al-Qaeda seriously before 9/11 and even after it, since they only saw nation-states as Iraq or Iran as the biggest threat rather than sub-state actors like Al-Qaeda, which is probably one of the reasons they rushed to attack Iraq- but that is the subject of another thread.

I think what Rumsfeld is alluding to is the fact that all insurgencies require a "safe haven" from which to operate, and that nation states provide the best possible safe haven since they have the logistical muscle that non state actors lack. Hezbollah and Hamas or the Shiite militias in Iraq are certainly  dangerous due to their ability to access Iranian money, equipment, intelligence, Revolutionary Guard trainers and mentors etc. etc. Funding for the AQ can be traced to Saudi Arabia's ruling class and as mentioned, China has an interest in certain outcomes, although I would expect them to be far more indirect and subtle. A military or economic blow against Iran would affect the AQ and their fellow travellers far more effectively than killing or capturing any number of AQ leaders and members.

As far as China is concerned, as long as we look at their actions through the prism of Chinese "permanent interests", then we should understand what they are up to and perhaps be able to predict their possible range of actions. We also need to remember that China is not a "friction free" state, and there are many internal challenges such as demographic imbalance, endemic corruption, resource shortages and vastly unequal wealth distribution to overcome in order to remain a viable state, much less become a superpower.
 
tomahawk6 said:
China's economic success is tied to the export market.

Surprising? Not really. One of the reasons why China must not be dismissed as merely a "regional/economic power", since economic growth increases China's influence in the world.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070412/ap_on_bi_ge/wto_china

WTO: China overtakes U.S. in exports
By BRADLEY S. KLAPPER, Associated Press Writer
Thu Apr 12, 7:47 AM ET

GENEVA - China surpassed the United States as the world's second-largest exporter in the middle of last year, according to figures released Thursday by the        World Trade Organization, and the Asian country is pulling further and further ahead.

Export growth from China boomed 27 percent last year, outpacing all other major trading nations, the WTO said in releasing its first batch of global trade statistics for 2006.

While China finished behind Germany and the United States in total exports for the full year, it overtook the United States in the last six months of 2006 and will almost certainly finish above the U.S. in the 2007 totals.

At current growth rates, China is projected to overtake Germany as the world's biggest exporter in 2008.

"China's merchandise trade expansion remained outstandingly strong," the WTO said in its 21-page report. "Office and telecom equipment continued to be the mainstay of Chinese export growth, but significant gains in world market shares in 2006 could be observed in 'traditional' exports such as clothing and 'new' products such as iron and steel."

The WTO report comes at a time of rising tension between China and the United States and some of the findings will surely fuel debate that Beijing's trade policies are preventing American goods from entering its vast market. U.S. critics accuse the Chinese economy of benefiting from an undervalued currency, illegal government subsidies, unfair barriers to foreign competition and widespread piracy.

The United States filed two new complaints against China at the WTO on Tuesday over copyright policy and restrictions on the sale of American movies, music and books — the culmination of years of agitation in Washington over one of the world's biggest sources of illegally copied goods ranging from DVDs, CDs and designer clothes to sporting goods and medications.

The new cases are the latest move against China by the Bush administration, which is trying to deal with America's rising political anger over its soaring trade deficit that set a record for the fifth consecutive year in 2006 at $765.3 billion. The U.S. imbalance with China grew to $232.5 billion, the highest ever with a single country.

The WTO report said China's imports rose 20 percent last year to $792 billion — a surge that was "faster than global trade but continued to lag behind export growth."

The commerce body partly attributed the weaker import figures to lower oil prices, but did not cite any other factors. The WTO tends to avoid issues tied to energy or currency valuation.

Since 2000, China has more than doubled its share in world merchandise exports to 8 percent. Those figures do not include the goods sold abroad by Hong Kong producers because the "special administrative region" entered the WTO as a separate member in 1995 while still under British rule.

Overall real goods trade throughout the world achieved 8 percent growth in 2006, the highest in six years, the report said. High prices for fuels and metals meant the trade expansion was 15 percent when measured in monetary terms, reaching $11.76 trillion.

"The strong performance in 2006 is welcome, particularly the gains made by developing and least-developed countries," WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy said.

The world's poorest countries boosted their trade by about 30 percent, fueled by sales of petroleum and other basic commodities. Developing nations as a whole increased their share of global goods trade to a record 36 percent.

Europe recorded its strongest growth in merchandise exports since 2000, but continued to lag behind the global rate of expansion, the report said. Even as its trade deficit soared, the U.S. recorded its best export growth in more than a decade.

Africa's goods exports rose 21 percent to give the continent its highest share of global trade since 1990, but most of the growth was due to increased oil sales, the WTO said. Latin America's commercial expansion decelerated slightly, while Asia remained the most buoyant of all regions for exports.

For 2007, the WTO predicted that a slowdown in global economic growth to 3 percent could also keep real goods trade growth to about 6 percent. Risks facing financial and property markets, and the large trade imbalances in goods and services have raised the level of uncertainty for this year and the likelihood of weaker trade expansion, WTO economists said.

Lamy said the current round of global free trade talks, which have stumbled through nearly six years, could help stabilize the global trading system.

"The uncertainties that lie ahead are a warning for us not to lose sight of the need to continue to reform the world economy," he said.

Top trade officials from the U.S., the        European Union, Brazil and India said Thursday they were making progress in talks aimed at reviving treaty negotiations, but many months of inaction have dimmed prospects for a breakthrough.
 
China may be a competitor but they are nowhere near the threat that radical islam is. Their economy while making progress is a generation or two behind the western economies.Their great rural population has not been included in the economic boom seen in the large cities. This is creating a large under class that the government is already having problems with. If the government cannot find a way to bring the rural population along with the rest of the population it could be the foundation for another revolution.
 
A Times' columnist's take on the scramble for Africa by the New Imperialists: China and Russia.  I still think there is a "market" for the Old Imperialists, especially as the locals get a better look at the new ones. (Edit: and with 50 years of experience of the local aristocracy.)

A century on, the new scramble for Africa

Our columnist is troubled by oil and water

Camilla Cavendish
Oil doesn’t just power our lives. It also fuels violence. The new scramble for Africa – about 120 years after the first one – is inflaming conflicts that could dog the rest of this century. This remake of history could have some even nastier endings than the Victorian version.

On Tuesday Russia and China were accused by Amnesty International of breaching international law by arming the Sudanese militias that have murdered almost 300,000 people in Darfur in the past three years. Russian helicopters and bombers have been used to strike targets in Darfur. Some of these planes were apparently painted white, with UN lettering. So while the UN debates whether to send in peacekeepers, and tries to isolate the Sudanese regime orchestrating the genocide, two of the five permanent members of its Security Council are aiding and abetting that regime. And someone is brazenly forging the UN’s signature....

....The problem there is that the Sudanese regime has been emboldened by the Chinese pipeline that sucks out 350,000 barrels a day. It has defied every UN initiative to resolve the Darfur crisis. The refugee camps grow daily, and the conflict is spreading to Chad and the Central African Republic.

In the midst of this untold misery, China’s President is reported to have promised to finance a new presidential palace in Sudan. If that is true, it would be a tragic return to the old cliché that aid funds despots and their palaces. Paradoxically this comes just as Western aid agencies have finally started to demand more accountability from dubious governments.....

Nothing "paradoxical" about it.  The "other guys" are supplying the better deal. No strings and all the kickbacks you ever wanted..... Time to re-invigorate the Commonwealth as a counter.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/camilla_cavendish/article1769266.ece

A good read, if contentious in spots.
 
Kirkhill said:
Time to re-invigorate the Commonwealth as a counter.

I SECOND that suggestion. Perhaps the Commonwealth should be developed into a military alliance similar to NATO, but that's the topic of another possible future thread.
 
One word  INDIA.

India is a natural enemy for the Chinese.

India also has warmed up to the west of late.

In 20-30 years?

Hmmmm
 
On a side note, if China invaded Russia, do you think Russia would have real reservations about causing mega deaths via their potent Nuclear forces? I do not think they USA, Britain or France would pull them selves into a Nuclear cluster**** over China, which thus leaves Russia with a very strong upper hand on China, as Chinese Nuclear Forces have no where near the level of Russian Nuclear power. For this reason, I do not see China invading Sibera, I think they would aim for something like Vietnam to the South, where no one really would interfere with them to any hard level. (its not worth while for any world power to enter war with China over Vietnam)
 
Chinese Nuclear Forces have no where near the level of Russian Nuclear power

Is that a true statement?  Given the standard of care of Russian technology, the availability of scientists and technicians, general maintenance of facilities, Quality Assurance testing of weapons in storage, the requirement to rebuild, replace and develop new weapons is it necessarily reasonable to assume that the arsenal that Russia held on to in the 90s is still as effective as it was?

By contrast China seems to be advancing technologically........many more Chinese businessmen with cameras taking photographs at western trade shows than Russians and many more western factories being built in China.

Is it a safe bet for the Russians that they can outshoot the Chinese?  I don't think so.

Having said that - while I agree that the west might be inclined to stand back in the event of a conventional Russo-Chinese war contained within their borders I can't see them being as laisser-faire about a nuclear exchange which by its nature would have implications beyond their borders.
 
rz350 said:
For this reason, I do not see China invading Sibera, I think they would aim for something like Vietnam to the South, where no one really would interfere with them to any hard level. (its not worth while for any world power to enter war with China over Vietnam)

Rz530,

Have you even read my previous post about the Chinese 1979 invasion of Vietnam???? The Chinese are unlikely to try that stunt again especially since they are currently on good diplomatic terms with Hanoi, although Hanoi and Beijing have always mistrusted each other.

Well the PLA already invaded Vietnam in the brief Feb. to March 1979 Sino-Vietnam War and suffered up to around 26,000 casualties while the Vietnamse suffered around 20,000. They occupied several cities north of Hanoi, including Lang Son and Cao Bang, but eventually withdrew after a month of occupation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-vietnamese-war

China mainly invaded Vietnam in response to a united Vietnam's occupation of Cambodia in 1978, since the Hanoi govt. had decided to oust the Khmer Rouge govt. (China's ally) by invading and occupying the country. Back then, the Communist World was stil in a Beijing vs. Moscow schism with Cambodia as China's ally and Vietnam as the Soviet Union's ally (Soviet warships were known to dock and use Cam Ranh Bay not long after the last US forces left and after the fall of Saigon).  Hanoi grew increasingly distrustful of Beijing especially because of this worldwide Communist Schism, even if China did send around 320,000 anti-aircraft, engineering and logistics troops to Northern Vietnam to help in during the 1960s-70s Vietnam War against the Americans and her allies.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War

My only point is that the PLA will think twice before invading their ex-ally again, especially with the increased number of Vietnamese divisions sent to Vietnam's northern border during the past twenty years to guard against another such invasion.

And I doubt China would nuke the Vietnamese while they are invading that country.
 
China faces the same problem Imperial Japan faced in the 1930's: go north into Siberia and access the rich but untapped resources there or go soouth and grab the already developed resources of the European Empires. There was almost a civil war over this question, with the Imperial Army faction backing the Siberia option while the Imperial Navy looked south.

Two things decided the issue (and incidentaly WW II); the Imperial Army received a drubbing at the hands of the Red Army in Mongolia, and the fact that Japan did not have the capital resources required to develop the virgin resources of Siberia.

China will face similar issues. They already access developed resources throughout the world (i.e. Sudanese oil) but are aware this is terribly vulnerable to interruption. On the other hand, China does not have the capital base to develop Siberian resources (although they have a trillion dollars to hire Western companies to do it for them  >:D). This would also leave them vulnerable to Russian interference and at the mercy of Western industry. Although Western companies have shown a shameful record of bowing to Chinese demands, this may not always be the case, and I suspect the Chinese will work to avoid that scenario.
 
The Russia/China conflict is complicated by others with stakes in the issue.  These include Japan, Iran, India and Pakistan.  Not to mention Tiawan and the USA.  The European countries also have unique affiliations with the various factions - the Germans with Iraq and French and Russians with Iran (to greater or lesser extent).  I seriously doubt that either the Russians or Chinese would actually start a shooting war but use threats and coercion on and for their proxies.
 
Back
Top