Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[RangerRay]

When the intelligence community informs the highest levels of government that this is going on and it happens two elections in a row, and the task force set up to combat foreign interference says “T’sall good!”, it’s clear the government isn’t taking this seriously. I would find it hard to blame a government official for leaking this to the press if they thought the government was being loosey goosey with national security.

I could be cynical and say the government is sitting on its hands because it benefits the governing party, but I would like to believe that even this incarnation of the Liberal Party isn’t that cynical to risk our national security and our relationships with our allies. But their shrug and “Don’t worry, be happy” attitude isn’t inspiring confidence.

Either Uncle Joe is going to have to grab JT by the lapels or we may find ourselves short of allies.

 

[Good2Golf]

Either Uncle Joe is going to have to grab JT by the lapels or we may find ourselves short of allies.

The Russians aren't the only ones that need useful idiots.

Uncle Sam has a few of note...some notably closer than others.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Its funny how much news the Russia collusion and interference made up here, but this doesn't seem to be gaining traction.

At some point we're going to have to ask ourselves if we are a real country or not.

 

[FSTO]

On the “Curse of Politics” the four operatives kinda agreed that the result of the interference wasn’t much but that the Government doesn’t have the means to properly assess the intelligence it is being provided. They didn’t mention the Security Advisor to the PM at all.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Actual Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential election wasn't much either, but a lot of Americans sure paid attention.

 

[QV]

Its funny how much news the Russia collusion and interference made up here, but this doesn't seem to be gaining traction.

At some point we're going to have to ask ourselves if we are a real country or not.

Of course, it depends on who benefits and who doesn't politically.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The Russians aren't the only ones that need useful idiots.

Uncle Sam has a few of note...some notably closer than others.

It's probably a good thing we don't have media coverage of our politicians the way the US does. We're pretty flush with UI ourselves.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Its funny how much news the Russia collusion and interference made up here, but this doesn't seem to be gaining traction.

At some point we're going to have to ask ourselves if we are a real country or not.

Currently, I'd say, we are heading down the road where we're just going to be someone's resources. Not a sovereign nation.

 

[JLB50]

Currently, I'd say, we are heading down the road where we're just going to be someone's resources. Not a sovereign nation.

Like the U.S. we started out as a colony. But somehow, despite our independence, we still think of ourselves as a colony.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Like the U.S. we started out as a colony. But somehow, despite our independence, we still think of ourselves as a colony.

You know, we, Canadians of 160ish years ago, weren't clamouring for "freedom" or "independence." We, our fellow citizens circa 1860, were quite happy to be residents of a British colony - that included our French speaking fellow citizens, they may not have liked their colonial masters but they, the brits, were a slice above the Americans who made no bones about the fact that they wanted to absorb Canada into an English speaking "union." Manifest Destiny and all that.

By 1865 the Brits had grown tired of the costs of defending us and one of the main "drivers" for the new Dominion of Canada was a desire, in London, to make Canada pay for its own defence.

As others have pointed out in this forum, one of the most significant statements of Canadian nationalism is entirely negative. Many, many Canadians define themselves, primarily by saying what they are not: Americans. That's knelt much of a basis for anything, is it? Our American and French friends may, actually very often do, inflate minor achievements or even less into heroic legends but they have a healthy conceit about themselves; they're proud to be American or French. I remember a few years ago when Canadians took "pride" in the fact that Americans, who were unpopular in Europe, especially, because of Vietnam wore Canadian flags on they backpacks ... once again, a negative achievement.

"Canada has no core identity" may sound harsh but it may also have the ring of truth.

 

[JLB50]

You know, we, Canadians of 160ish years ago, weren't clamouring for "freedom" or "independence." We, our fellow citizens circa 1860, were quite happy to be residents of a British colony - that included our French speaking fellow citizens, they may not have liked their colonial masters but they, the brits, were a slice above the Americans who made no bones about the fact that they wanted to absorb Canada into an English speaking "union." Manifest Destiny and all that.

By 1865 the Brits had grown tired of the costs of defending us and one of the main "drivers" for the new Dominion of Canada was a desire, in London, to make Canada pay for its own defence.

As others have pointed out in this forum, one of the most significant statements of Canadian nationalism is entirely negative. Many, many Canadians define themselves, primarily by saying what they are not: Americans. That's knelt much of a basis for anything, is it? Our American and French friends may, actually very often do, inflate minor achievements or even less into heroic legends but they have a healthy conceit about themselves; they're proud to be American or French. I remember a few years ago when Canadians took "pride" in the fact that Americans, who were unpopular in Europe, especially, because of Vietnam wore Canadian flags on they backpacks ... once again, a negative achievement.

"Canada has no core identity" may sound harsh but it may also have the ring of truth.

I agree. Britain wanted to ease its defence burden with respect to its colonies. But, somehow, Canada never picked up on its need to fully protect its own borders. Maybe it was too much dissent from within Quebec. Also, a point not to be forgotten is that many early settlers in the western provinces came from the U.S. and to this day, many of their descendants maintain a particularly strong emotional attachment to the U.S.

Although I’ve spent the majority of my life in Canada, I was actually born in the U.S. I grew up with the notion of the importance of spending money on defence to maintain one’s freedom. Yet, the majority of my neighbours and friends here in Canada seem to look on defence spending as largely a waste of money that should be used for other purposes (e.g. foreign aid). There seems to be little perception of a Canada that exists much beyond the U.S. border. The high arctic might as well be Mars.

 

[Dana381]

A little (or a lot) of imposter syndrome in there as well, Canadians think nothing of defending Europe or Korea, or Kuwait, or Afganistan but we don't see the need to defend Canada. It's like we think "why would anyone attack us, hell most people don't even want to visit our frozen wasteland"

 

[RangerRay]

The Globe and Mail editorial board agrees with me.

Globe editorial: Stand up to China, Mr. Trudeau

Anything less than concrete actions will demonstrate a lack of will, bordering on acquiescence, on the part of the Trudeau government to protect the integrity of this country’s elections

www.theglobeandmail.com

 

[Kirkhill]

​

​

Telegraph's AEP on the China - Russia relation.

Will China let Putin's regime collapse, or risk all to save a feckless ally?

Read this exclusive extract from our Economic Intelligence newsletter and sign up at the bottom of the article to get it every Tuesday

www.telegraph.co.uk

​

Will China let Putin's regime collapse, or risk all to save a feckless ally?​

Read this exclusive extract from our Economic Intelligence newsletter and sign up at the bottom of the article to get it every Tuesday
AMBROSE EVANS-PRITCHARD21 February 2023 • 2:00pm

Xi Jinping declared 'limitless friendship' for Vladimir Putin days before Russia invaded Ukraine CREDIT: Alexei Druzhinin/Sputnik/AP
China’s Xi Jinping faces an excruciating choice. He can stand back and allow Vladimir Putin to lose the war in Ukraine, leading to the downfall of his key strategic ally.

That would risk the emergence of a Western-leaning government from the ruins of defeat. It would be the end of Xi’s revisionist grand plan to end American hegemony and rewrite the rules of the global order. It might also be the political end of Xi himself.

The alternative is for Xi to rescue his floundering accomplice. That implies a vast and open-ended commitment along the lines of FDR's lend-lease for Britain in 1941. It would guarantee a world historical confrontation with the democracies and the international economic system.
“That would be an absolutely crazy thing to do. They have played such a cautious game up until now,” said Roger Garside, a former British diplomat in Beijing and author of books on Deng Xiaoping and the Xi era.
“The fundamental interest of the Chinese is to stay alive and prosperous, not to commit economic suicide by supplying lethal weapons to the losing side,” he said.


Yet American intelligence has concluded that Xi Jinping may be preparing to do exactly that. The evidence has been sufficiently compelling to alarm Western allies as well.
“To date, we have seen Chinese companies provide non-lethal support to Russia for use in Ukraine. The concern now based on information we have is that they're considering providing lethal support,” said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the Munich Security Conference.
Tim Ash, a Chatham House fellow, said there is logic behind Beijing's confusing messages. China is drawing up a “peace plan”, while at the same time dropping hints that it will keep Putin’s war machine going if the West does not come to the table.

“In recent weeks it has finally dawned on Beijing that Russia is losing this war and actually could suffer a catastrophic defeat,” he said.
“The fear now is that the war could lead to regime change. There is a chance of a pro-Western administration emerging in Moscow. This is the nightmare for China.”

What is clear is that Russia is careening headlong into a fiscal and industrial crisis as hydrocarbon exports dry up, and therefore cannot sustain full-scale offensive warfare for many more months.
“The toughest sanctions on our oil products were introduced only at the end of 2022. This year our exports will be half last year's,” said Russian economist Konstantin Selyanin.


The G7 oil price cap has led to an effective discount of $40 a barrel on Urals crude oil sold on Asian markets. The Kremlin had to draw down almost a quarter of its $186bn rainy day fund in January – including gold sales – to cover the collapse in budget revenues. The fund’s liquid component is down to $84bn.

“The figures are alarming and there are no clear proposals on how to get out of this. Some very serious decisions will have to be made at the highest level,” said Mr Selyanin, warning that Russians will start to feel economic pain in earnest after last year’s misleading resilience.
Oil prices may recover and bail out the Russian budget but that is not what the futures market is telling us. Brent contracts through to the end of 2024 are in ‘backwardation’.

Putin may find ways to circumvent the G7 blockade or to narrow the price discount. But the West has a stranglehold on 90pc of the global tanker trade through insurance, financing, or control of vessels. His putative “shadow fleet” is not big enough to change the equation.
The Kremlin cannot easily replace lost oil and gas earnings. It lacks a functioning bond market able to mobilise domestic savings on a sufficient scale. In that respect, Vladimir Putin is in the same predicament as French Bourbon monarchs in the 18th Century.

China has the means to prop up Putin’s regime – within limits. It has $3.2 trillion of foreign exchange reserves, including $867bn of US Treasuries, and more via proxy holdings in Belgium (Edit - what is this? how tight is the China EU (Brussels, Berlin, Paris linkage) – which raises interesting questions if the US-China economic war rises to the next level.

China can supply routine chips but itself imports over $300bn a year of semiconductors – more than crude imports – and is vulnerable to a technology squeeze. Washington has already prohibited US companies from selling China the kit and technology used to make advanced chips. Asian allies have gone along with the boycott. They had no choice.

But that is an amuse-bouche compared to what could happen if Beijing pokes Europe in the eye on Ukraine. The West also controls maritime supply routes for oil, coal, liquefied natural gas, iron ore, and soybeans. China could find itself in the same sort of position as Japan after Roosevelt imposed the US oil embargo in 1941.

The Chinese and Western economies are so intertwined after 30 years of globalisation that further escalation amounts to mutual economic harm, but that does not mean that the consequences are equivalent. “If the Chinese turn the whole OECD world against them, they do so at their peril. I can’t believe they would be so foolish,” said George Magnus from Oxford University’s China Centre.

Mr Magnus said China could extend credit lines through the three state agencies that fund the Silk Road but this initiative has gone badly wrong, with more and more countries pleading for debt relief. “China has lost its appetite for lending,” he said.

China’s foreign minister Wang Yi says his country will not supply weapons. His charm offensive in Europe over the last week seemed mostly aimed at trying to separate France, Germany, and Italy from Nato hardliners, (Edit - JEF and the East?) while also fanning conspiracy claims about the role of US special forces in bombing the Nord Stream pipelines.

Chinese and Russian officials are singing from exactly the same hymn sheet on Nord Stream, which indicates the flavour of the coming Chinese peace plan.

The problem for Xi Jinping is that he is fatally invested in his strategic bromance with Putin. He declared “limitless friendship” days before the invasion, signalling his support for military action. A Russian debacle leaves having to explain a colossal and unnecessary setback for Chinese interests.

“I don’t think he could survive that after the bromance. It would set off a leadership crisis in the Communist Party, and opponents would use it to get rid of him,” said Mr Garside.

“His authority is already gravely diminished. You can see that in the way he was forced to abandon zero-Covid after the Party Congress. He cannot afford to reverse another of his signature policies,” he said.

The joint 5,000-word statement by Xi and Putin a year ago proclaimed “a relationship that cannot be compared with anything in the world”. It committed China to all-out political war with the West as if the objectives of the Chinese Communist Party and Putin’s regime were sacredly aligned. There is no consensus for this within the upper echelons of the CCP.


Xi has used China’s state media to parrot Russian propaganda on the conflict since the war began. He has undermined a core tenet of Party doctrine: that the principle of territorial integrity under Article 2 (4) of the UN Charter must be upheld religiously. By backing Putin’s neo-colonial land grab he has undermined 75 years of Chinese diplomacy, not that the global South seems to care. Brazil’s Lula blamed Ukraine for provoking the attack. South Africa’s Ramaphosa is soon to hold joint military manoeuvres with Russia and China, as missiles rain down on Ukrainian children.

Powerful figures in the Communist Party think Xi has devalued the Chinese moral brand and damaged Chinese economic interests by aligning with Putin’s deranged regime.

They think he has picked unnecessary fights with the West, provoking hi-tech sanctions before China is close to technology parity. They think he has killed the growth miracle by turning his back on Deng Xiaoping’s market model. Above all, they think he has misjudged the global correlation of forces. And they are waiting for him to trip.

This article is an extract from The Telegraph’s Economic Intelligence newsletter. Sign up here to get exclusive insight from two of the UK’s leading economic commentators – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard and Jeremy Warner – delivered direct to your inbox every Tuesday.

It is difficult to determine when an opinion becomes wishful thinking.


I still find myself wondering if China is more scared of losing Russia to a western oriented government or just of losing the threat of Russia to keep the lid on the Silk Road nations. If the Silk Road initiatives are already stressing the Chinese bank accounts I can't imagine they would be happy to see a Western oriented Silk Road.


The other datum that jumped out from the article was

China has the means to prop up Putin’s regime – within limits. It has $3.2 trillion of foreign exchange reserves, including $867bn of US Treasuries, and more via proxy holdings in Belgium (Edit - what is this? how tight is the China EU (Brussels, Berlin, Paris linkage) – which raises interesting questions if the US-China economic war rises to the next level.

And the personal temptation to lt my biases have free reign and ally it to this

China’s foreign minister Wang Yi says his country will not supply weapons. His charm offensive in Europe over the last week seemed mostly aimed at trying to separate France, Germany, and Italy from Nato hardliners,

and this

the emergence of a Western-leaning government from the ruins of defeat. It would be the end of Xi’s revisionist grand plan to end American hegemony and rewrite the rules of the global order

My belief is that the EU, in particular the Franco-German SDP-CSU factions, share the Chinese antipathy to Anglo-Saxon liberal democracy.

 

[Kirkhill]

"Canada has no core identity" may sound harsh but it may also have the ring of truth.

Once upon a time this would have reflected a core Canadian identity - mair sense in yon Bullock than in maist o' the teachers you fin' at scheul.

OLD CANADA; OR, GEE BUCK GEE, by ALEXANDER MCLACHLAN ca 1871

The country's goin' fast to ruin!
This edication's our undoin',
We're comin' to a pretty pass,
Our boys who scarce have been to grass,
Have all gone off, bound to the teachers,
Or city clerks, or peddlin' preachers;
Our darters too, are quite Sultanas,
All strummin' on them cuss'd pianos,
And try to trip us up with rules
They've learn'd away at Grammar Schools,
And look upon the likes o' me—
Who nurs'd them criters on my knee—
As far beneath them,—Gee Buck Gee!

And then they're all Book Farmers too!
And they would teach me what to do;
Manurin', ploughin', drainin', seedin',
All farmin's to be done by readin'!
O Lord! O Lord! it makes me mad,
When every striplin' o' a lad,
And every edicated ass,
Who scarce knows growin' wheat from grass,
Must teach the like o' me to farm,
Wi' Latin names as long's my arm;
Them criters teach the like o' me?
Who farm'd ere they could reach my knee,
Ain't it presumption?—Gee Buck Gee!

I tell ye what! them and their books,
Are getting to be perfect pukes;
And sure enough this edication
Will be the ruin o' the nation;
We'll not ha' men, it's my opinion,
Fit to defend our New Dominion;
Not one o' them can swing an axe,
But they will bore you with the facts;
I'd send the criters off to work,
But that, by any means they'll shirk!
Grandad to some o' them I be,
O, that's what riles and vexes me!
Ain't it a caution?—Gee Buck Gee!
For those that dinna ken - Gee is as in Gee up, or Gee and Haw. Get along or Right and Left.

Alexander McLachlan: Our Forgotten Poet - In The Hills

A century ago Alexander McLachlan was one of the best known citizens of these hills, widely admired, respected and praised for his poetry.

www.inthehills.ca

It reflected the culture of John A MacDonald, Wm Lyon Mackenzie, George Brown, Tommy Douglas, Alexander Mackenzie, John Diefenbacker, Robert Stanfield and a wheen mair, including most of the bankers, shipping, rail and press barons of the era.

In 1967 it was celebrated by a Scottish immigrant name of Jack Whyte who made something of a name for himself as an author

A Toast to Canada

A Toast to Canada​

Our adopted Homeland from Auld Scotia
Jack Whyte

We gather here with purpose clear
In honour of our Bard each year
We toast his works with wine and song
Each several year that comes along

As Janwar' days are wearin' late
And folk begin tae tak' the gate
Throughout the old world and the new
Brave Rabbie's Star comes shinin' through

Tonight I shall propose the toast
To our adopted Homeland host
To multitudes of every race
Assembled on the world's great face

This country huge, alive and free
And bountiful to you and me
And any man who wants to stand
Unfettered in a growing land

Where to begin? I pondered long
This country where we now belong
Demands so much of writer's skill
I might write for a month and still
not touch on some important part
Of Canada, so where to start?

Here is a task which might indeed
Make e'en our Rab Burns scratch his heid
But takin' thought, I made the choice
Of ordering my mind and voice
To underline and emphasize
The contributions, great in size
That came straight from Auld Scotia's hand
To cultivation of this land
Making of it, from coast to coast
A home of which strong men can boast



Our ancestors of auld lang syne
Lived free 'mongst Scotland's heath and pine
Till the cruel blast of England's power
Deprived them in one evil hour
Of croft and shieling, loch and glen
Calling them cattle, less than men
And shipped them off beyond the seas
To die or flourish as they pleased

But the Sassenach was ne'er too bright
When it came doon tae seein' the light
For centuries they'd ca'ed us thievers
Bandits, despoilers, cattle-rievers

They didna ken they'd lose the lot
Tae the hard-working, dour auld Scot
That when their Empire they had built
It would be guarded by the kilt

That when they cam' tae count their gowd
It would be earned by Scotsmen, proud
And fierce and sometimes skittish
That men should call the Empire 'British'

Alas, poor England ne'er was tell't
She owed her Empire to the Celt
How strange the world should be impressed
By men proud Albion dispossessed!

Aye. Dispossession. Let us now
Return to these sad days and how
Our forefathers, sea-sick and sore
Were landed on a foreign shore

They looked around them, stretched their legs
Shook the wrinkles from their philabegs
And straightway started to command
This country they called 'New Scotland'

From Nova Scotia, round the Banks
Of Newfoundland, the Scottish ranks
Spread inwards, aye, and westwards, till
They crossed one last majestic hill

Ane wow! they saw an unco sight
The great Pacific stretched its might!
Thousands of miles they'd made their way
Across this land, our home today

Now, some might think I make too much
Of the effect that Scotia's touch
Had on proud Canada's demesne
But it can be heard, felt and seen

Just let the doubter take a look
At place-names on a trip he took
Or let him ask of one who knows
MacGregors who are Eskimos

The Frazer and Mackenzie proud
Selkirk, Calgary, Fort Macleod
Banff, Airdrie and Barrhead, now these
Names hardly could be called Chinese!

But influence is reciprocal
And Scots' reaction typical
For though in heart and soul he hold
Heritage and tradition old

The Scot is ably born somehow
To love the land he lives in now
To grow with it, uphold its name
And work to bring it wealth and fame

To mix with folk from other lands
To build a nation new and grand
So Nova Scotians, proud Acadians
Take honour in the name 'Canadians'

Oh Rab, Oh Rab, could ye but see
This mighty and superb country
I think your Muse maun cower her heid
Sae great wad be your bardic need

To capture, with an image terse
A different scene in every verse
For here's a country that demands
Fair play, Rab, frae the poet's hands

Great fields sae big, Sir, that your plough
Wad be worn out ere you were through
Great, empty wastes barren and bare
As puir auld Holy Willie’s Prayer

Huge, vasty waters, inland seas
And forests, Sir, wi' michty trees
That rooted and were growin' lang
Afore ye heard the blackbird's sang

And up tae now I've said nae word
About the creatures, beast and bird
That mak' their hames in this new land
That ne'er were seen on Scottish strand

Great horned beasties, weird and droll
Wild animals wad spean a foal
Beasts few men see, names all men know
Wolf, beaver, bear and buffalo

Elk, cougar, coyote, caribou
And others would mean naught to you
Though you micht fear for your ain hoose
On seein' a Canadian moose

They've all roamed here since time began
Together with the Indian
Proud peoples of the plains and woods
And Innuit in fur-lined hoods

Aye, here's a land, Rab, which the Lord
Has sculptured with a Divine sword
A land where man and beast and clime
Conjoin to give new life to time

A land of lands, a place whose worth
Has no peer anywhere on Earth
A land to have, a land to hold
A land more dear than Pluto's gold

What mair tae say? What mair tae dae?
I maun propose the toast
To this land where we are today
This land that is our host

Each lad and lass, tak' up your glass
And let your mind's eye roam
Across this country, proud and vast
Our Canada. Our Home.



My hame.​

 

[JLB50]

In the meantime, a Globe and Mail item yesterday about Chinese monitoring devices found in the Arctic. Unfortunately I don’t have a subscription to read the accompanying copy.

Canadian military found Chinese monitoring buoys in the Arctic​

ROBERT FIFEOTTAWA BUREAU CHIEF
STEVEN CHASESENIOR PARLIAMENTARY REPORTER
PUBLISHED YESTERDAYUPDATED 8 HOURS AGO

 

[RangerRay]

Terry Glavin sums everything up beautifully.

This is not the action of a government that takes national security seriously. These are the actions of a government trying to cover something up.

We're At The Point Of No Return.

The Trudeau government is actively obstructing efforts to shine a public light on Beijing's interference at the core of Canada's democratic processes. Why?

therealstory.substack.com

I found this part interesting.

This isn’t how a government goes about its professed devotion to “transparency and accountability.” Count on it: the breakdown in the CSIS-PMO relationship is severe enough that intelligence officials are already familiarizing themselves with the “public interest” exemptions in the Security of Information Act - the 1985 successor to the Official Secrets Act.

It’s a rigmarole, but Section 15 of the Act provides that no 14-year jail sentence will be doled out to a responsible CSIS officer who can show that the public interest was served in greater measure in the Act’s breach than in compliance with it.

The PMO and CSIS simply aren’t on the same page when it comes to either the public interest or national security.

Is this accurate?

 

[OldSolduer]

Our "Dear Leader" (yes sarcasm) is not a dictator but he is in the pocket of at least one. That's purely my opinion.
To a certain extent I think Chretien was as well.

 

[QV]

Terry Glavin sums everything up beautifully.

This is not the action of a government that takes national security seriously. These are the actions of a government trying to cover something up.

We're At The Point Of No Return.

The Trudeau government is actively obstructing efforts to shine a public light on Beijing's interference at the core of Canada's democratic processes. Why?

therealstory.substack.com

I found this part interesting.



Is this accurate?

I note in the article it states the CSIS files which Trudeau doesn't want the committee to see have already been shared with the Five-Eyes. Good.

I'm not shocked at the muted response in Canada to this. I'm curious to see what the CSIS director's response will be, he did entirely back Trudeau's play during the EA hearing despite his agency not finding the convoy to be a national security threat.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Our "Dear Leader" (yes sarcasm) is not a dictator but he is in the pocket of at least one. That's purely my opinion.
To a certain extent I think Chretien was as well.

My understanding is that five months after Chretien had vacated the Prime Ministers office he was jetting off to China. If true, makes you wondering when his fascination with China began?