Personally, I think the CCP quietly replace Xi within the next few years. Ofcourse officially, Xi will step aside 'due to health reasons' or something like that, and support his replacement. (Again, a show for the outside world.)
Xi, in all fairness, has done an amazing job at bringing China to where it is now. A rapidly growing middle class, world renowned tourist attractions (minus the fact that tourists are too afraid to go to China now), the rapid modernization and professionalization of it's military, an aggressive foreign policy which has secured Chinese interests in dozens of countries around the world, more global influence than almost anybody else, etc.
But, in recent years, Xi has also created a lot of enemies...
- Tensions with the rest of the world are at an all time high, as he continues to hold citizens from a few different countries as political hostages. Not only is he keeping foreigners incarcerated indefinitely, but relations with those countries are rocky, at best.
The US, EU, and several others have refused to allow Chinese state companies to install or provide their 5G networks.
- IF Xi were to invade Taiwan, as he constantly hints at, it would be the end of China as a global player in it's current form. Any attack/invasion of Taiwan would immediately result in massive amounts of civilian casualties, only to have the Chinese military oust a democratically elected government, and essentially take the entire country prisoner. (Since most Taiwanese have been very clear, they would rather live in a democracy.)
^ It would be a political nightmare that not even China could cover up. A democratically elected government, ousted. The entire country essentially taken prison and forced to be part of the 'one China'. News networks could finally talk about something other than Covid, as urban areas burn and the civilian death count just keeps rising.
Countries all over the world would immediately look to other countries to replace their trading relationship with China. Other SE Asian countries (that also have beef with China right now) would absorb a ton of business, as countries and businesses alike would work as fast as possible to distance themselves from China. Economic sanctions would actually cripple China, and the diplomatic actions taken (forbidding air travel from China, not granting entry visas, etc etc.)
- Also, obviously, all of the nonsense around Covid hasn't helped either. Add that to the mix, as well as the various dangers governments all over the world are openly announcing from Chinese-sponsored influence activities, and China is quite rapidly losing it's clout.
- Its most reliable allies are a handful of 3rd world countries, and only because they got swooned in with the "belt & road initiative". How strong & how deep is their new found alliance with Russia? In their case, 'the enemy of thy enemy is thy friend' I believe...I don't know how durable that alliance will be when SHTF.
Overall, looking within the next 10yrs, Xi is on his way to undoing all of the great things he has done. I don't think the CCP will sit quietly by the sidelines as Xi destroys the future that many in China are excited for, and feel is well overdue.
0.02
www.theglobeandmail.com
nationalpost.com
www.foreignaffairs.com
www.project-syndicate.org
www.telegraph.co.uk
americanmilitarynews.com
